Ben Paxton
@drbenpaxton.bsky.social
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📥 242
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Senior Researcher at the
@instituteforgov.bsky.social
. Views my own.
Another misplaced attack on the OBR. The government dictates fiscal policy, not the OBR. That includes the OBR's mandate and the fiscal rules. The fundamental problem is a weak fiscal position, which requires tough choices on tax and spend
1 day ago
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Stuart Hoddinott
4 days ago
Between this and "superflu" the NHS is spinning very hard this winter. Few ways to interpret this comms strategy: 1) manufacturing demand crises to shift blame 2) stick to beat the BMA 3) to bounce HMT into emergency funding 4) they actually believe high demand causes long waits None good!
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Hannah Keenan
5 days ago
Amid some v good initiatives, lots of the longstanding problems with the civil service got worse again in the past year. If the government wants to 'rewire the state' it needs to set out what that means for the workforce. 👇Sneak peek at some of our
@instituteforgovernment.org.uk
report, out in Jan.
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The new powers to debar or exclude suppliers that break the rules or perform poorly were supposed to help fix accountability in public procurement. But I'm not aware of these new powers being used much at all so far, and the attempt highlighted here by
@jessicaelgot.bsky.social
has faced problems
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5 days ago
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Ben Paxton
JP Spencer
20 days ago
FAO business case nerds: government are finally getting round to publishing business cases. This has been a long time coming - I remember working on ideas around this over three years ago. So well done to the government for actually getting on with it.
www.gov.uk/government/c...
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Business case publications: collection
This is a collection page for major project and programme business cases.
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/business-case-publications-collection
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Really important blog from
@gemmatetlow.bsky.social
on the misguided critiques of the OBR, and why a strong OBR (and person to chair it) is in all our interests
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/stro...
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A strong OBR is in everyone’s interests | Institute for Government
The chancellor should appoint a strong chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility to replace Richard Hughes.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/strong-obr-everyones-interests
25 days ago
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Ben Paxton
Stuart Hoddinott
about 1 month ago
This is an interesting piece. Analysis we've done support some of the findings First, staff absences are higher on average in trusts that serve more deprived populations, and the effect is larger for mental health absences than for other conditions
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The 'clogging up' of A+Es is not due to the 2% of people coming to ED with this quite arbitrary list of conditions. The main reason they're clogged is poor flow through hospitals!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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Patients clogging up A&E with hiccups, sore throats and niggles
NHS bosses warn the public to use hospitals wisely amid concern this could be a tough winter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74xqn2zg1eo
about 1 month ago
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Ben Paxton
Nick Davies
about 1 month ago
I was a little sceptical about the OVfM’s unusual setup but it has worked very well. The key question, as Ben argues, is whether politicians and officials can now put its proposals into practice and take up the mantle of driving further system reform
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Ben Paxton
Giles Wilkes
about 1 month ago
In my Budget chat for
@instituteforgovernment.org.uk
I flatteringly compared it to a complex artwork you must spend hours with to see all the details
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/offi...
The work of the OfVFM provides an example:
@drbenpaxton.bsky.social
explains why it is good.
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The Office for Value for Money has been a success | Institute for Government
In its short lifetime the OfVM made valuable proposals for change.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/office-value-money
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A slice of positive budget news last week was some important improvements to the spending framework I've written about how the Office for Value for Money helped drive this, and why I think others in government could learn from its unusual set-up
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/offi...
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The Office for Value for Money has been a success | Institute for Government
In its short lifetime the OfVM made valuable proposals for change.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/office-value-money
about 1 month ago
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Well worth reading this great thread from
@meganbryer.bsky.social
on the shape of government following the latest PPS and cabinet committee data release. Interesting here that the cabinet committees look less gender balanced on average than cabinet itself (which is 44% women)
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about 1 month ago
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Ben Paxton
Harriet Shaw
about 1 month ago
New funding plans for mayors may not have made the headlines last week but they represent important steps on the government's journey to 'complete the map' of English devolution. More from me,
@akashpaun.bsky.social
and
@matthewfright.bsky.social
below.
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Once again, Reeves committed to one fiscal event a year. That would be great. But when there are two OBR forecasts, the temptation is to do further fiscal tinkering each time. The test will be whether she can hold her nerve come the spring
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
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LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves announces tax and spend measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/autumn-budget-2025
about 1 month ago
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Ben Paxton
Institute for Government
about 1 month ago
This morning we’ll be sharing some further analysis of the chancellor's big budget decisions. In the meantime, check out the summary post on our autumn budget live blog, which highlights some of yesterday's key takeaways
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
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LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves announces tax and spend measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/autumn-budget-2025?postId=10597088?postId=10597542
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Ben Paxton
Nick Davies
about 1 month ago
Pleased to see the govt commitment to using procurement to drive innovation. Procurement accounts for roughly 1 in 3 pounds spent by govt but it's utterly unstrategic about how it uses this
@drbenpaxton.bsky.social
and I previously identified the barriers that the task-and-finish needs to remove
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Ben Paxton
Nick Davies
about 1 month ago
Proposed changes to spending controls are incredibly positive. As
@instituteforgovernment.org.uk
has previously noted, the cumulative complexity of controls muddies accountability, makes govt a worse customer, and wastes time and money. We asked govt to review and that's exactly what they've done
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Weeks of speculation, and lots of budget measures - but do they add up to a coherent fiscal strategy? Tune in to our webinar in 10 minutes to get the
@instituteforgovernment.org.uk
view
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about 1 month ago
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Ben Paxton
Institute for Government
about 1 month ago
"Reeves steered clear of major adult benefits reforms"
@drbenpaxton.bsky.social
shares his thoughts on today's budget and what it means for welfare – and why big changes to the system won't land unless you've laid the groundwork
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
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Not surprising that Reeves is expected to once again freeze fuel duty given her focus on the cost of living. But if they keep doing this, revenue in 2029/30 will be ÂŁ4.8bn lower than the numbers pencilled in. The cumulative cost of these freezes (+ 5p cut) since 2010/11 has been ~ÂŁ100bn (!).
about 1 month ago
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We've now had several formal pre-budget announcements (following weeks of speculation, which Treasury 'officially' declines to comment on). Our autumn budget live blog has a list of them (+ our piece making the case for a tourist tax back in July)
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
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LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/autumn-budget-2025?postId=10591982
about 1 month ago
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Ben Paxton
Gemma Tetlow
about 1 month ago
In a new departure, we
@instituteforgovernment.org.uk
are going to be live blogging the Budget all through tomorrow. The live blog is now live and we will be sharing our pre-Budget thoughts there, followed by responses once we hear the CX's speech
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/au...
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LIVE BLOG | Autumn budget 2025: Rachel Reeves prepares to announce tax measures | Institute for Government
IfG experts analyse Reeves' budget and explore what the chancellor's plans for the economy, tax and spending mean.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/live-blog/autumn-budget-2025
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Great to see public sector pensions being discussed. But I think the key issue is are they actually good value for money for recruiting + retaining the public sector workforce we want? Or might giving people flexibility to switch some pension for pay be better value?
www.thetimes.com/article/77af...
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We need to put a stop to unfair public sector pensions — here’s how
The incredibly generous schemes are unfair and unaffordable and there is no justification for continuing to offer them
https://www.thetimes.com/article/77af6f64-e5c9-47dc-81b6-e02b439ebd15?shareToken=12b078d2d00734e3a6ad68000972560b
about 1 month ago
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Ben Paxton
Shaina Sangha
about 1 month ago
As the covid inquiry gears up for Module 9 on economic policy,
@gemmatetlow.bsky.social
and I have a new @ukri.org-funded
@instituteforgovernment.org.uk
report out on Epi-econ modelling for pandemics. We set out why govt needs to invest now 1/đź§µ
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
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Combined epidemiological and economic modelling | Institute for Government
The pandemic showed the need for government to improve its use of modelling.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/epidemiological-economic-modelling-future-pandemics
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Ben Paxton
Stuart Hoddinott
about 2 months ago
A chart that surprised me: NHS staff absences for mental health reasons are at record highs, above pandemic levels Absences for that reason have grown far faster than the combination of other reasons since 2016 Staff were absent for 1.4% of all working days for mental health reasons in YE May 2025
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New comment from us on the six big things we at the
@instituteforgovernment.org.uk
will be looking out for at next week's budget
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about 1 month ago
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Ben Paxton
Nick Davies
about 2 months ago
NEW: Labour inherited public services in crisis. Performance had fallen, investment had been cut + spending plans were undeliverable. It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt đź§µ
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Ben Paxton
Institute for Government
about 2 months ago
In two weeks' time, Rachel Reeves will deliver her second budget as chancellor. Join us online on 26 November for our instant reaction to the chancellor's plan for the economy - with
@danhaile.bsky.social
@jillongovt.bsky.social
@gilesyb.bsky.social
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/autumn...
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Ben Paxton
Ben Zaranko
about 2 months ago
An interesting piece which (rightly in my view) puts policy uncertainty front and centre. But I'm less convinced by the proposed policy prescription: if we kept a 2nd forecast, but don't formally assess rule compliance, what stops everyone else just reading off the OBR spreadsheet?
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Ben Paxton
Amber Dellar
about 2 months ago
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
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Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2025/schools
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NEW from me on why changes to public sector pensions should be on the table. But politicians must say how they'll cover big upfront costs, and focus on how remuneration can best support the workforce needed to improve public services - not on cuts
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/publ...
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Public sector pensions reforms should focus on workforce recruitment and retention | Institute for Government
There is a strong case for looking at reforms to public sector pensions.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/public-sector-pension-reform
about 2 months ago
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Ben Paxton
Giles Wilkes
2 months ago
"Yet unpopularity — even unpopularity as deep and bitter as that which Starmer is currently experiencing — need not be terminal, provided his MPs have faith in his plan and his vision"
@stephenkb.bsky.social
smashes out brilliant points I am hoping to publish at greater length 1/
on.ft.com/478WcW7
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Starmer needs to get serious about governing — and quick
The prime minister has to change or his party will seek a change of its own
https://on.ft.com/478WcW7
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Ben Paxton
Heloise Dunlop
2 months ago
Good comment from
@timdurrant.bsky.social
- DSIT has struggled to become the "digital centre of government" and faced a huge culture shift (it was mainly policy & science and engineering staff before GDS moved there from Cabinet Office). (1/2)
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Ben Paxton
Cassia Rowland
2 months ago
NEW REPORT Criminal justice is coming apart at the seams. Police, criminal courts & prisons can’t cope with the level of demand and performance keeps spiralling downwards. Early positive steps from the government won't be enough to turn things around
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
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Performance Tracker 2025: Criminal justice system | Institute for Government
The government must act to avoid the justice system returning to the crisis point seen when Labour entered office, or worse.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2025/criminal-justice/overview
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Shifting to a more preventative approach rather than just meeting acute demand in these services is vital. But this shows we have long way to go to get to where we were 10-15 years ago. Great analysis from Stuart and the team
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3 months ago
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Good to see Reeves defending the importance of SR settlements (where changes should be avoided). But disappointing if this means using highly optimistic assumptions re. future tech efficiencies (eg ÂŁ45bn) to pencil in spending cuts beyond the SR period rather than confronting the need for tax reform
3 months ago
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Ben Paxton
Nick Davies
3 months ago
The point of a multi-year spending review and regular SR cycle is to provide stability. That stability allows frontline public services to make long-term decisions that will deliver better outcomes and VfM. It's a big failure of policymaking if spending decisions are being reopened 4 months later
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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget
Speaking exclusively to Sky's deputy political editor Sam Coates, Rachel Reeves says Brexit, austerity, and the Liz Truss mini-budget have all played a role in damaging Britain's economy - as she prep...
https://news.sky.com/story/chancellor-admits-tax-rises-and-spending-cuts-considered-for-budget-13450207
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Really looking forward to chatting with this brilliant panel about how to make sure pay and pensions help attract and keep the high-quality public sector workerforce the government needs
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3 months ago
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Ben Paxton
Institute for Government
3 months ago
The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government New report by
@njdavies.bsky.social
and
@drbenpaxton.bsky.social
on how public procurement could support delivery of mission-led government, and the key barriers to this.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
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The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government | Institute for Government
How can the government remove the barriers to its missions?
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/procurement-government-missions-delivery
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Ben Paxton
Civil Service World
3 months ago
IfG report says a “bias for the status quo” often prompts government to stick with existing approaches that “guarantee poor performance”, rather than taking a chance on change
www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...
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'Coherence is needed': Government urged to leverage its ÂŁ400bn procurement bill to aid missions drive
Think tank says better approaches to spending – including backing the civil service to be less risk-averse – can deliver results
https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/government-urged-to-leverage-its-400bn-procurement-bill-to-aid-missions-drive
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Ben Paxton
Stuart Hoddinott
3 months ago
This interview is so much worse than the headline lets on
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Procurement is massively underrated as an opportunity for improvement, and where a mission-led approach could make a difference. Our NEW REPORT explores why this change is hard, and how procurement should be used to shape markets + drive innovationđź§µ
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
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The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government | Institute for Government
How can the government remove the barriers to its missions?
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/procurement-government-missions-delivery
3 months ago
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Ben Paxton
Nick Davies
3 months ago
NEW REPORT:
@instituteforgovernment.org.uk
finds that confused missions, pervasive risk aversion, poor data quality, insufficient commericial capability, and a failure to focus on outcomes means that govt is failing to make the most of ÂŁ400bn+ a year it spends on procurement
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The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government | Institute for Government
How can the government remove the barriers to its missions?
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/procurement-government-missions-delivery
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Making this taskforce 'internal' rather than independent (unlike e.g. sentencing) was a choice, presumably for greater control over recs. So is this just pitch rolling? Or evidence that an 'internal' review of controversial policy doesn't necessarily mean control?
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
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Cabinet ministers to recommend lifting two-child benefit cap
Starmer to be urged by taskforce before the budget to make the change — but it will cost £3bn a year when Rachel Reeves is trying to plug a spending gap
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/two-child-benefit-cap-keir-starmer-news-qngfl2xb8
3 months ago
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Government spends >ÂŁ400bn each year (!!!) buying stuff from the private and voluntary sectors. With a tricky budget coming up and Starmer's focus on delivery, our new report sets out the role procurement can play in delivering mission-led government
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
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The role of procurement in delivering mission-led government | Institute for Government
How can the government remove the barriers to its missions?
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/procurement-government-missions-delivery
3 months ago
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Great article from Meg Hillier, and a message more politicians need to hear. Pinning all responsibility for the UK's fiscal problems on the OBR is not only misguided, but risks damaging economic and fiscal credibility
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4 months ago
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This from
@tompope.bsky.social
and
@danhaile.bsky.social
is a brilliant, quick run down of the fiscal problem facing Reeves this autumn - and why tax rises look like the only real option available to address it
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4 months ago
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Ben Paxton
Hannah Keenan
6 months ago
Lots of focus right now is (very rightly) on the use - and length of - the super-injunction. But this data breach is a sobering reminder of the extent to which gov botched the 2021 evacuation from Kabul and the impacts of it having done so.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/afgh...
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Afghan data breach is the long shadow of a botched evacuation | Institute for Government
The government needs to learn the lessons of past crises.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/afghan-data-breach-botched-evacuation
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If government are serious about improving accountability for poor performance/rule breaking under the new Procurement Act, they've got to be proactive in preparing to navigate these tricky decisions on how they would debar companies which the public sector is particularly reliant on
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6 months ago
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Great comment piece from Heloise and Alex. Mission-led government is no longer front and centre, but it's not dead. In the absence of another narrative/strategy, it continues to shape government policy/prioritisation (but this will wane without buy-in from the centre of government)
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6 months ago
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