So this is public now, so: I’m officially starting a Works in Progress-style magazine focusing on the developing world! It is called In Development, and first call for pitches will be coming at the end of the year. Pre-subscribe here: indevelopmentmag.substack.com

"Most immigrants are already net fiscal contributors; decreasing their numbers will only decrease their contributions." ✍️ @lgilbert.co argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

"Migrants are also likely to be net fiscal contributors. Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency." 🖊️ Lauren Gilbert argues that lower migration is bad news for the UK economy https://ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migration-is-bad-news-for-the-uk-economy/

One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc

'there is simply no sign of a fiscal catastrophe from the “Boriswave"...this would seem to suggest that the recent collapse in immigration will harm Britain’s finances..' @lgilbert.co for @ukandeu.bsky.social on the economics of immigration ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

ironically I did final edits on this piece while dealing with some Visa Issues

Important, timely, analysis by @lgilbert.co debunking the commonly used line that "migrants are a burden". Shows that migrants are overwhelmingly bet fiscal contributors. Basically, you target migration, you crash the country.

"Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency." New analysis by @lgilbert.co ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

"Home Office data suggests that recent immigrants are more likely to be working than British nationals and make higher wages than them." ✍️ Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

"There is simply no sign of a fiscal catastrophe from the 'Boriswave'. Recent migrants are very likely to be employed, paying tax and seem to be contributing to British society..it will help, rather than hurt, Britain’s fiscal position." Analysis by @lgilbert.co ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

I have a new blog post out with The UK In A Changing Europe on how lower migration will be bad for the UK economy: ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

Another kind of science brain gain from immigration: Ito, et al show Colombian scientists abroad are connectors between researchers in those countries and in Colombia for the long term voxdev.org/topic/migrat... cc @mushfiq-econ.bsky.social @lgilbert.co

Particularly in rich countries, people often assume that once a migrant arrives, they are likely to stay for life. This is not true. Many migrants move to another country only temporarily. On Substack, I explore what we know about return migration: www.laurenpolicy.com/p/return-mig...

immigrant life is… not always the easiest. Queuing to board 11 hour flight to the UK, dad calls and asks if he should go to the emergency room because he’s having chest pain. He lives a five hour flight from where I am now, a seven hour flight from where I will be soon.

I am on a tram with @juliamurdza.bsky.social that has broken down she is discussing the merits of this particular tram car model with a man

@juliamurdza.bsky.social and I clean up OK!

I wrote about some metascience events I think should exist: www.laurenpolicy.com/p/two-metasc...

1) Only ~75% of British citizens are in work. Do we want to punish people for studying, having children, or doing care work? 2) On that point, SSP and maternity leave are benefits... 3) Why should people have to volunteer? Isn't the point that volunteering is voluntary?

The @thetimes.com & @rcolvile.bsky.social have *finally* amended the CPS's entirely fictional £234 billion figure. archive.ph/vtfZe

I wrote up a proposal to increase replication capacity while evaluating the reliability of federally-funded science: www.laurenpolicy.com/p/r-randomiz...

Good to see CPS publicly retracting their nonsense numbers here. I explained their errors to them when they first published, and wrote it up here - they simply didn't understand what the OBR was saying. docs.google.com/document/d/e...

as for wages, we see reasonably rapid wage growth among recent arrivals (as migrants progress, and low-earning students return home). Nothing here at all to back up Farage's claims

Putting all this together, @lgilbert.co find the following. It's not that Farage is (just) exaggerating/overstating - he is simply lying about migrants, jobs, wages and benefits. Media should be very clear about this. www.laurenpolicy.com/p/are-recent...

Good summary of the H-1B situation by @sampeak.bsky.social

your periodic reminder that immigrants also consume goods and services

A friend asked me if the new H-1B visa fee will act as a de facto salary filter. I think it will not, and also that it's an incredibly bad idea: www.laurenpolicy.com/p/the-new-h-...

Sam Enright has a post for Progress Ireland on how Ireland could become the world leader in replications.

BIG NEWS FOR DEMOCRACY: Minerva is now the mayor of the Somerville Bike Path with her winning platform of “crime”. It is still unclear if she is pro or anti.

Unpleasant, ignorant and error-ridden rubbish from Jenni Russell in the Times, arguing for the "remigration" agenda of Jenrick/Lowe Below quotes nonsense numbers from the Centre for Policy studies that the CPS has itself admitted are fictional.. archive.ph/S6YuV

in the UK, most immigrants pay a "surcharge" for the NHS (ie taxed twice for it) & are ineligible for most benefits I wonder if that assuaged anti-migrant fears here? . . . ah

apparently i've had a substack for a year nine migration pieces & six short essays so far + weekly links not that I'm biased but I think it's pretty good: laurenpolicy.com

we have scanned the horizon (ably guided by @metaculus.bsky.social); I am now off to spend some time with some Fabian women

Most of my pieces are 3000 words of synthesis of the academic literature. In this piece, on educational migration, I actually talked to migrants (specifically @malengo.org scholars who have moved from Uganda to Germany for university): www.laurenpolicy.com/p/what-happe...

Great new blog post by @lgilbert.co about @malengo.org's Uganda–Germany university program! www.laurenpolicy.com/p/what-happe...

Ilan Gur introducing the RenPhil Horizon Scanning Study Group

Very good piece from @bengoldsborough.bsky.social. More of this please. www.politics.co.uk/mp-comment/2...

Remember: violence in school isn't a reason to keep kids out of school. Out-of-school kids usually experience *more* violence, not less (www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....). It *is* a reason to make schools safer!

17 African countries have more off-grid diesel generation capacity than they have on-grid power plant capacity. Many of them are now bringing in solar panels at a staggering new rate. These will displace high-carbon energy sources- a fantastic accelerating trend.

Excellent post exploring the immigrant fiscal contributions by visa category. Important to note that it is overall positive without even considering indirect positive effects on UK born as my own research shows: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Very important work by @lgilbert.co comprehensively dissecting and demolishing the myth spread by politicians and "thinktanks" that recent migrants are likely to be a drain on public finances. www.laurenpolicy.com/p/are-recent...

You know how everyone is freaking about how bad new immigrants are for public finances? I did the math and: even considering only new Boriswave immigrants, the average new immigrant salary was still higher than the average British national. On Substack: www.laurenpolicy.com/p/are-recent...

I reviewed the state capacity of various European countries (as experienced by sprinting across their train stations): www.laurenpolicy.com/p/european-c...

he’s really good at this

Anyone need a research design?

A Lithuanian equivalent to “there’s no such thing as a free lunch” is nemokamas sūris tik pelėkautuose. It means “the only free cheese is in a mousetrap” * read on for more international cheese phrases (this thread may not turn out grate, but hopefully it will be gouda ‘nuff)…

To clarify: RenPhil operates on a fund model, where there are many donors. Schmidt is one, but much (possibly all, actually) of our UK work is funded by UK donors.

Mission‑driven government needs more than ambition:  we must rewrite the rules of the game. Today for @britishprogress.bsky.social, Pedro and I show how mechanism design (‘ reverse game theory’) can help the Government shape markets, crowd in investment and deliver radical reform.

Data in a csv format which we converted to a pdf which we printed which we then scanned which we embedded in a slide deck which we then encrypted which we lost the password to and cited as “available upon request”

person conducting media training: now we're going to ask you really hard questions and make you feel bad, this will be the worst interview of your life me, trained on econ seminars: ... so actually everyone was very nice and friendly and not aggressive at all

also there will be a UK women in science & tech mixer @ Newspeak House on the 22nd: lu.ma/zvo218g5?tk=...