Whatever you think about the particulars of this story, it demonstrates how prediction markets create perverse incentives far beyond what you initially expect. It’s not hard to imagine the types of pressuring journalists will experience as more people recklessly gamble on real-world events.

Metaculus v Polymarket predicting the Iran attack -- @kikollan.llaneras.es in @elpais.com: elpais.com/actualidad/n...

Polymarket pulled nuclear detonation markets after public backlash. There's a right way to forecast existential risks and a wrong way. The right way: aggregate judgment for reliable foresight. The wrong way: let anonymous wallets profit from mass death--or worse, corrupt the decisions themselves.

2/ We see our role as fostering forecasts as a public good. Our community's work on the question of a US invasion of Iran is illustrative. 372 people put the probability of a US attack on Iran at 75%, 8 days before it happened. Polymarket's $529M market hovered between 23-52% over the same period.

Should we be gambling on war? For so many reasons, no.

Should we be gambling on war? For so many reasons, no.

AI forecasting is in the spotlight. We just released FutureEval, a benchmark to measure forecasting capabilities of the various bots participating on our platform. Some info might surprise you. Read more here: www.metaculus.com/futureeval/

In April, a federal judge found probable cause the Trump admin willfully defied a court order on deportation flights. The contempt probe intensified this week. We've added a $10,000 prize pool to our US Democracy Threat Index. Scenarios like this are exactly what it tracks. 1/4

How might the world look after the development of AGI, and what should we do about it now? Help us think about this at our workshop on Post-AGI Economics, Culture and Governance! We’ll host speakers from political theory, economics, mechanism design, history, and hierarchical agency. post-agi.org

U.S. DEMOCRACY THREAT INDEX -- on Metaculus (www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...) "This index was created by the nonpartisan group Bright Line Watch (BLW), which monitors the state of American democracy. The index consists of 39 questions based on the democratic principles BLW monitors."

For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion with @metaculus.bsky.social forecasts and AI forecasts from Mantic Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...

When LLMs go head-to-head with expert human forecasters, they consistently lose. Metaculus Pro forecasters decisively outperformed the top AI models in recent tournaments. Turns out pattern recognition isn't the same as understanding complex systems.

🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy brightlinewatch.org/violence-red... -Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January -US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy -Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017 Full thread of results below

apple.news/Aq9MWGSObSLe... #forecasting #AI #Metaculus

we have scanned the horizon (ably guided by @metaculus.bsky.social); I am now off to spend some time with some Fabian women

New: The US Democracy Threat Index - a collaboration between Bright Line Watch & @metaculus.bsky.social that will aggregate real-time forecasts of risks to democracy across 39 questions of concern Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39... Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...

Excited that Open Phil is funding this @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting tournament on the future budgets and spending of NIH and NSF, and surprised that forecasters are expecting basically no cuts www.metaculus.com/tournament/...

Our new Bright Line Watch forecasting Q on Metaculus is up: forecasters expect non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments to four large metro areas by 11/3/26 www.metaculus.com/questions/38...

Really cannot hold comparison to metaculus comments, real alpha there

Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, and the AI Futures team wrote AI 2027, a detailed scenario predicting an intelligence explosion and US-China AI arms race. How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/a...

Compete in the Metaculus Cup 🏆 • $5,000 prize pool for accurate predictions & high-quality comments that convince others • Level up your forecasting skills • Build your reputation • New topical questions each week Get started: metaculus.com/tournament/m...

This administration is implementing policies faster & more radically than even Project 2025 outlined. The POTUS Predictions Tournament helps us understand & prepare for potential scenarios as constitutional guardrails are tested. $15k in prizes. New questions live: www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

A timeline vizualising AI forecasts from @Metaculus and @ManifoldMarkets

In my book 'Think Clearly,' there is an entire chapter about the art & science of forecasting: • The fascinating story of @Metaculus • Ideas from two superforecasters • And details about those rules Here's the book ✨ thinkclearly.llaneras.es

New @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting Qs contributed by Bright Line Watch to POTUS Predictions series; $15K prize pool -fed judge impeachment -abnormal changes to Fed -weaken/drop filibuster -criminal charges vs. journos -bounties for deportations Forecast here: www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

Trump's return has brought sweeping policy shifts and judicial clashes. But where supporters see reform, critics see risks to the democratic order. Make accurate, concrete forecasts in the POTUS Predictions tournament to cut through the noise. $15k prize pool. www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

KEEPING AN EYE ON H5N1 19%(95%CI: 12%-26%) of Metaculus forecasters say human-to-human transmission will occur, in spite of the obsrevation that H5N1 is mildly zoonotic but not thought communicable between humans--right now. Pigs might assist in a reassortment to change this communicability.

🔮 ¿Crees que puedes predecir 2025? 🔮 Quedan 24h para participar en nuestro torneo de predicciones #Metaculus. ¡Hay 5.000 dólares en premios! Descubre cómo participar👇

Oh, I should include a Thank you Metaculus for the opportunity to help the world by forecasting and giving my point of view to help the world by give good data on each issue I forecast on. Thank you. Sincerely, Brian H.

How capable will top AI models be in 2025? Forecast: • LLM agents' autonomous replication & adaptation (ARA) abilities • model performance on benchmarks like GPQA & GAIA — in AI Benchmarks, a collaboration with the AI Safety Student Team at Harvard: metaculus.com/project/3054/

Will we see: • An IAEA-like international regulator for AI? • Drexler-style nanotech proven feasible? • Leading AI models evaluated by METR? Forecast in the Future of AI series, based on key uncertainties identified by Arb Research. Start here: www.metaculus.com/project/2907/

Building new nuclear power in the US is incredibly challenging, and Plant Vogtle's Unit 3 is the first new reactor in 30+ years. When Unit 4 goes online, Vogtle Plant will be the largest nuclear power station in the US. Will it start operating this May? metaculus.com/questions/19...

Israel stated it will extend ground operations into Rafah unless Hamas releases captives before Ramadan. Will Israel expand its ground invasion by March 12? The aggregate forecast dropped to 43% this week. metaculus.com/questions/21...

Hungary stalled Sweden's NATO membership vote for more than 18 months, but Orbán's party now plans to vote on the ratification Monday. Will Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1st? The Community Prediction is currently 90% www.metaculus.com/questions/21...

"Today, deepfakes often involve sexual imagery, fraud, or political disinformation. Since AI is progressing rapidly and making deepfakes much easier to create, safeguards are needed" —today's open letter: openletter.net/l/disrupting... Will the US restrict deepfakes? metaculus.com/questions/21...

🗳️ Which candidate will win Super Tuesday? 🥇 What country will lead the Summer Olympics medal table? Metaculus is launching multiple choice questions: Forecast likelihoods across outcomes & automatically ensure probabilities sum to 100%. Learn more & get started: www.metaculus.com/questions/20...

We've launched our 3rd annual FluSight Challenge, delivering forecasts to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with returning partner Lehigh University! Your predictions can help public health officials combat the spread of influenza: www.metaculus.com/tournament/f... $5K in prizes (1/4)