If Labour and other parties can't find a way to scrutinise, criticise and condemn a policy like this, they give Reform a free ride and make the future less safe & certain for those who come here, work hard and contribute.

📣New #openaccess publication on Western European #party systems within the #Sartori symposium on IPSR. lc.cx/b_xy8Y A short 🧵👇

158. AP-GfK, 2009: "If you had to choose, would you prefer to attend a wedding that served champagne and caviar, wine and chicken breasts, or beer and pigs in a blanket?"

Just out at JOP (www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....) : Why do so few working-class people hold office? It's not lack of interest. Noam Lupu and I ran 10 surveys in 8 countries and found no evidence of a social class gap in how often qualified people consider running.

BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment. Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...

1/ How does migration affect political attitudes? Using 380k obs from 104 sending & 28 receiving countries, @filipkostelka.bsky.social, Nicolas Sauger & I find some migrants’ attitudes align with locals, while others exceed origin-host context, reshaping ideological space. 👉 doi.org/10.1111/ajps...

Sir Robert Worcester, legendary pollster and founder of MORI (now Ipsos UK) has died at 91. He taught so many people so much about the value and importance of opinion polls in modern democracies - everyone in our industry and politics owes him a debt of gratitude.

Either have to accept co-payment as a built in part, raise broadbased taxes or both. Frankly at this point I no longer have opinions on what the best way to fund healthcare in the UK is, I just want someone to advance one of those three real-world options.

Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team @katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk doi.org/10.31235/osf...

New blog on indyref mandate 🗳️ By our PI @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, this blog investigates attitudes to #indyref2 timing and whether there is a middle ground on the "mandate" question 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇬🇧 Particularly relevant given the FM has set out @snp.org's stall scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/09/03/i...

🚨New Research 🚨 Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE. Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters. 🧵⬇️ tinyurl.com/3m62exph

Anyone else on here ever felt a sense of despondency, even despair, at the values and priorities of 52% of fellow citizens?

Hitting ~350k is significant - our recent survey experiment finds no real political benefit to getting overall net migration numbers below their current level See earlier thread on the findings - bsky.app/profile/robj... @robjohns75.bsky.social @williamlallen.bsky.social

Had it been presented with comment, that comment might have noted the good reasons not to take these answers at face value. In hotly politicised contexts, poll responses are often expressive rather than sincere: that is, people give what they know is the right answer to support their side. (1/3)

Whispers: a lot of the UK’s problems would probably get a bit easier if we put up income tax.

I have a new article out at @polstudies.bsky.social. In "Electoral Hope", I make the case that supposedly irrational "wishful thinking" is actually a crucial part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. OA link: doi.org/10.1177/0032...

Hard for us to imagine what this must feel like, eh, @danjdevine.bsky.social?

Narratives about how hard it is for teenage boys, and subsequently men, to deal with romantic rejection are so weird to read, as a woman who was also once a teenager. Until you realise that they’re entirely built on the premise that girls and women are the gatekeepers to sex and relationships.

Unrelated to my trying to write a grant proposal, here's some stats on: - Reviewer responses at two journals - Reviewer times These are only papers I've handled (N reviewers = 271), with an almost 50/50 split between @jeppjournal.bsky.social and @poqjournal.bsky.social .

Harsh on Jocky Wilson.

This is unconscionable when families with kids must often budget for childcare, high rents, student loans and mortgage repayments.

🇺🇸 New blog! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 @cjcarman.bsky.social takes a closer look at our data on Trump support in Scotland ahead of the US President's visit. How popular is DJT? Are Reform UK supporters MAGA? And does the support of young men travel across the pond? Find out below! scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/07/18/t...

📣 Postdoc (75 %, 3 yrs) at @unigreifswald.bsky.social — start autumn 2025 on perhaps Germany’s most beautiful campus. Know someone with a PhD (or nearly done) in Political Science? ⬇️ #PolSci #Postdoc

Irritating quotation from Seldon. Thatcher had a "clear and consistent plan", so the 79-81 crisis was fine. Except her government performed a screeching U-Turn on its core economic (monetarist) policy, despite her rhetoric. I don't expect most people to remember that, but I do expect historians.

Surely my online speed awareness course should be on Teams, not Zoom.

cc: my co-authors

Further confirmation, from today's Ipsos Scotland poll, that the rise of Reform UK in Scotland is a unionist phenomenon - just 2% of 2024 SNP voters would vote for Reform now. Just 8-10% of those who would vote Yes in an independence referendum would vote Reform.

New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies. osf.io/preprints/os... 1/9

Seems a bit disrespectful to Muller.

A paltry three points says that Labour has already lost most Corbyn-curious voters in current polling. The big question is: how many would they lose in the kind of it-really-could-be-Farage general election in which they'd otherwise bank on stripping back a fair bit of Green and LD support?

Today: attendees get personalized feedback on projects from PAIR faculty, a class on designing research for impact (@piariggirozzi.bsky.social), and mixed methods (@profannikawerner.bsky.social & @elizabethjevans.bsky.social).

Hugely important subject matter, keen and knowledgeable students, and Southampton's regulation sunshine. A pleasure to participate.

🚨NEW @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention exclusive for the @telegraphnews.bsky.social / NEW methodology / Reform lead at 9 points 🚨 Reform UK 34% Labour 25% Conservatives 15% Lib Dems 11% Green 9% Record lead for Reform Record low share with Ipsos for the Conservatives

This is another fabulous Substack by @laurenleek.eu, on the challenges of survey sampling. A must-read for survey industry specialists and academic users of surveys. Eg. I’m sure you’ll love this @kevincunning.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...

Great researcher-and-trainer-on-a-project position @uossocstatdemo.bsky.social @unisouthampton.bsky.social ‪for anyone who knows both their survey data and their big data. #surveys #southampton #synonymous jobs.soton.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...

This is the latest bit to come out of our project on the public's expectation of *when* change might happen, in which @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social do all the work and I ponce around as if important. www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Jobs in elite sport I could do, an occasional series: 1. Standing in the slip cordon shouting "ooohhhhhh!" when Brydon Carse sends one down and the batsman leaves it

Only two days left to sign up! ⛸️

Several colleagues are going to be in Madrid next week for the European Political Science Association, presenting research on party decision-making, attitudes towards minorities, populism, gender, social media, acccents and class, urban-rural divides, the politics of dating, and more! #EPSA2025

Tomorrow, we host PSA's Annual Women & Politics Conference with @psawomenpol.bsky.social! We are thrilled to welcome you to campus, and we have 1.5 days of presentations from scholars on gender, inequalities, and the challenges faced by gender and politics in the 21st century. Get in touch with Qs!

My take on the huge by-election overnight, as a Westminster based journalist: The Scottish Parliament (Scottish Gaelic: Pàrlamaid na h-Alba [ˈpʰaːrˠl̪ˠəmɪtʲ nə ˈhal̪ˠapə]; Scots: Scots Pairlament)[1][2][3] is the unicameral legislature of Scotland. Located in the Holyrood area of the capital city, Edi

Masterly.

Of the four nations of the United Kingdom, the most pro-European was undoubtedly England. The nightmare for Unionists was that England would vote to stay in, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to leave. Essex & Lincolnshire, bastions of the Leave vote in 2016, voted to stay by 68% and 75%.

A bit of nostalgia for Remainers.

Yep, see everyone there! (You can always tape Springwatch.)

Enjoying the New York Times house style here

I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices! Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo... Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!

The PVV has left the Dutch coalition. What does this mean? Will there we be new elections? When? Who will win? Which government will form? 🧵

Not a phrase you read very often.