If you are an advanced PhD student or PostDoc working on AI and global politics/tech/authoritarianism come spend 1-6 months in Berlin this year with @scripts-berlin.eu! We have some funding for you and will help w/ visa and other moving issues. Info here: www.scripts-berlin.eu/about-us/job...

🌀It's safe to say that UK politics is in flux 🌀 Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, @sophiestowers.bsky.social, Rachel Wolf and @drjennings.bsky.social as they unpack the latest in UK politics 📆 Tues 10 Feb, 1pm GMT 💻 Online Sign up now 👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...

Weird and almost universal revisionism today. Even at the time, it was pretty clear that Mandelson wasn't appointed *despite* his dodgy links but *because* of them. Trump's Washington is a dirty swamp. Mandelson was deemed a man able to swim in it. This wasn't a secret. Everybody said it out loud.

It’s not the central issue here, granted, but surely “paedophile _and_ financier”, not “paedophile financier”.

All news is local...

This is (characteristically) excellent.

No.

Our Collaborative studentship competition is NOW OPEN! We have 8 exciting projects open for applications until 16 February 2026. For more info visit: www.senss.ac.uk/collaborativ...

This is, again, why I think "They are just the Tories with a new name" isn't necessarily damaging for them. Lots of people like(d) voting for the Tories. www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/voters-lik...

I feel staggeringly lucky to have missed the fee increase and been able to pay off my loan on a vaguely normal timescale. People who did the same course as me at the same place two years later face an additional 9% tax for 30 years of their working life www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

"I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace"

Big fan of this phrase: "If the grass seems greener on Nigel Farage’s side, it has been well fertilised by the careers of anybody who has challenged, overshadowed, or even in one case succeeded by agreement, the position of the supreme leader."

Portugal is having a presidential election tomorrow (Sunday). It is a fairly unusual one, which is representative of how much the political landscape has changed in the country. Here is some quick context about it, in case that is of interest: 1/9

First Scotland poll of the year, first Scotland poll tracker of the year. SNP still projected one short of a majority. Seats (+/- 2021): SNP: 64 (-) Ref: 19 (+19) Lab: 17 (-5) Grn: 13 (+5) Con: 9 (-22) LD: 7 (+3) Alba: 0 (-) 21 marginals: 17 SNP, 3 Labour, 1 Conservative. 1/3

Essex Summer School is back! With a boundless energy and a freshness of slides that you wouldn't expect from someone now squarely in the 'veteran' category, I'll be delivering my course on Designing & Analysing Surveys. And that's just one of the delights on offer. Browse below and sign up ASAP.

On the vidiprinter, it would have said "Labour: 10% (ten per cent)".

From November 2025 - From the Factory Floor to the Ballot Box: Firm-Based Origins of Brazil’s Populist Right - https://cup.org/4r04qrj - @matigiannoni.bsky.social #OpenAccess

🌈

"Where voters go after they abandon Labour is driven by culture and values, but their decision to move away from Labour is driven by economics." Beautiful essay prompt from @stephenkb.bsky.social's Inside Politics today. (And I think that, if called upon to 'Discuss' it, I'd be pretty sympathetic.)

The precedent.

A very worrying return to the Cold War in the current geopolitical context. It evokes a past of interventionism: from Guatemala in 1954 to Caracas today, the historical echoes of bombings and external pressure as tools of political and economic control in Latin America are still present.

Merry Christmas, academics!

The 2025 Headline of the Year Nominees 🧵

🇪🇺🇩🇪 Published Today in @bjpols.bsky.social 🇮🇹🇫🇷 How a voting advice application affected voting behavior in three large-scale field experiments: shorturl.at/2ekBj TLDR of our study (with @simonhix.bsky.social & @rlachat.bsky.social) below 👇 1/14

I can’t help thinking that when, in future, people ask what UK political leaders said as it became undeniable that US saw European liberal democracy as its no1 strategic foe, Starmer and others will regret that the answer is “not much, shuffled awkwardly, looked at their feet”.

It can't be emphasised enough: we are on course for either the most disproportional Holyrood result ever, or the SNP will win far fewer seats than projections predict they will.

How on earth did she fit in her marking?

New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 27 Nov - 3 Dec (vs 12-18 Jun): List: SNP ~ 28% (+2) Lab ~ 18% (-4) RUK ~ 17% (+1) Grn ~ 17% (+2) Con ~ 12% (+2) LD ~ 7% (-1) Constituency: SNP ~ 35% (+1) RUK ~ 18% (+4) Lab ~ 16% (-7) Con ~ 11% (+1) Grn ~ 9% (nc) LD ~ 9% (nc)

🚨 New in Nature+Science!🚨 AI chatbots can shift voter attitudes on candidates & policies, often by 10+pp 🔹Exps in US Canada Poland & UK 🔹More “facts”→more persuasion (not psych tricks) 🔹Increasing persuasiveness reduces "fact" accuracy 🔹Right-leaning bots=more inaccurate

You lose your wallet. Where are you most likely to get it back? It depends on how much $$$ is in the wallet. But it's better to lose your wallet in: Switzerland 🇨🇭 Norway 🇳🇴 Netherlands 🇳🇱 Denmark 🇩🇰 You're far less likely to get your wallet back in: China 🇨🇳 Morrocco 🇲🇦 Peru 🇵🇪 Kazakhstan 🇰🇿

As one who would struggle to get beyond the third press-up even on a particularly athletic day, I am hugely impressed by this and will be donating accordingly.

🚨 New working paper 🚨 Can LLMs with reasoning + web search reliably fact-check political claims? We evaluated 15 models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and DeepSeek on 6,000+ PolitiFact claims (2007–2024). Short answer: Not reliably—unless you give them curated evidence. arxiv.org/abs/2511.18749

No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one? Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts bsky.app/profile/robj...

Turnout decline accounted for (45% compared to 54% from 5 years ago) and petty party gossip aside, there are regions in Southern Italy where a non-fragmented left can win. In this case, with a "lefty" M5S candidate (Fico) moving towards the PD and vice versa.

NEWS - The Politics of Imperial Nostalgia - https://cup.org/4p1QbRA "right-wing opposition to criticism of the imperial past is stronger than left-wing support" - Christopher Claassen & @danjdevine.bsky.social #OpenAccess

Postdoc call‼️ I am opening a call for a postdoctoral position within my ERC project CONSENT. Come to Madrid to be part of my research team and more broadly of the @ipp-csic.bsky.social community. Application deadline: December 10th. Call details: tinyurl.com/yfu83p9m

“Can you pinpoint the moment that you realised that civilisation was utterly irretrievable?”

help

Typically entertaining piece with a review of the research set out here: bsky.app/profile/turn...

I still don't see how it can happen this time with 119 sitting Conservative MPs and Reform way ahead of the Tories in the polls. Farage will correctly expect to win many of those Tory seats. A deal either needs Farage to stand aside in seats he'd win, or the Tories to stand aside in seats they hold

It's depressingly compelling in a way just how closely the political and social reaction to social media mirrors the advent of the printing press.

Strongly suspect that this is what will happen here in 28/9. Tories will replace Badenoch with a leader prepared to try it and Farage (as per 2019 but this time as the senior partner) will continue to deny he'll do a stand-down deal - right up until the point he does one.

Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters. We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk). But that doesn't tell the full story. Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):

I (partly) blame the lecturers.

Labour now down to 18% in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention, the joint lowest we've ever had them - prev. May 2009 (expenses scandal, economic crisis). What's happening in 3 charts ...

Here’s one for the museum of 2025, a bitesize US political daily briefing

Finally some good news.

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

Lovely stuff.