Yn cynnwys ymchwil gan @jaclarner.bsky.social / Including research from Dr Jac Larner: #Senedd26 #Cymru #Wales www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politic...

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

A triumph for Welsh Govt’s current account rather than public accountability? For those interested in devolved governance in the UK, this is a fascinating report on the experience of Welsh fiscal #devolution & Welsh fiscal framework a decade on, & offers proposals for reform of the system #senedd

Mae diwygiadau cyllidol Cymru yn darparu mantais ariannol o bron i £1 Biliwn 📈💷 Mae adroddiad mawr yn galw ar Gymru i dreblu pwerau benthyca ac ennill rheolaeth lawn dros dreth incwm wrth i ddiwygiadau'r Fframwaith Cyllidol ddarparu hwb cyllideb ddigynsail. 👇 www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/asset...

Almost a decade on, Wales' fiscal reforms deliver nearly £1 Billion windfall but fall short on empowering the Senedd Major new report calls for tripling of borrowing powers and full income tax control as Fiscal Framework reforms deliver unprecedented budget boost:👇 www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/asset...

New blog Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m

Braint cael cyhoeddi yn Fortnight. Llyfr Philip Stephens yn werth chweil hefyd. Real pleasure/privilege to get the opportunity to contribute to Fortnight, one of the other island’s best publications. And ‘These Divided Isles’ is well worth your time.

"This would still be an historically low increase in NHS spending" - Guto Ifan #Senedd26 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...

"Labour has dominated Welsh politics since 1922, it's won every UK General Election, it's won every devolved election and currently it's trailing in a very poor third place. And it could fall even lower as the remaining Labour vote votes tactically to keep Reform out" - @richardwynjones.bsky.social

My take on the Caerffili by-election and the political state of play six months from the Senedd election: www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-op...

Ymateb @lauramcallister30.bsky.social i canlyniad is-etholiad #Caerffili ar @bbc5live.bsky.social #Senedd26 #Cymru Prof Laura McAllister responds to the #Caerphilly by-election result on BBC Radio 5 #Wales

A quite remarkable result in a constituency that had only ever elected Labour at FPTP parliamentary contests (Senedd or Westminster). Labour’s 11% is not only its worst ever Senedd by-election result but its worst ever result in a Welsh valleys seat. #devolution #senedd #caerphilly

Ymateb @richardwynjones.bsky.social i canlyniad is-etholiad #Caerffili ar @bbc5live.bsky.social / Prof Richard Wyn Jones responds to the #Caerphilly by-election result on BBC Radio 5:

Podlediad BBC Radio Cymru #Gwleidydda nawr ar gael gyda @richardwynjones.bsky.social a Vaughan Roderick yn trafod canlyniad syfrdanol #Caerffili neithiwr 👇#Senedd26 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Is-Etholiad Caerffili yn cael ei dadansoddi gan Volkskrant yn yr Iseldiroedd gyda dyfyniadau @lauramcallister30.bsky.social / Prof. Laura McAllister features in this analysis of the Caerphilly by-election in Volkskrant: www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/h...

Here, @lauramcallister30.bsky.social notes "There’s no doubt in my mind that we are seeing a fundamental realignment of Welsh politics. Labour is left in a very invidious position. I think we’re getting close to seeing the end of Labour’s hegemony in Wales." www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Research from @robdjones.bsky.social and @gjdavies.bsky.social has shed light on the attitudes towards the Welsh language inside Wales’s largest prison: Welsh-speaking inmates 'told to speak English' in prison www.bbc.com/news/article...

Mae @lauramcallister30.bsky.social yn trafod pwysigrwydd is-etholiad #Caerffili ar @BBCr4today / Prof Laura McAllister discussing the national and UK-wide implications of the looming #Caerphilly by-election on BBC Radio 4's Today programme. #Senedd26 #Cymru #Wales

Coverage in @financialtimes.com of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, featuring analysis from the Enron of Welsh political statistics, and friend of the gnomes of Zurich, @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @jaclarner.bsky.social #senedd #devolution

NEWYDD: Dadansoddi Cyllideb Ddrafft Amlinellol Llywodraeth Cymru 2026-27 gan tîm ymchwil Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru👇 NEW: Analysing the 2026-27 Welsh Government Outline Draft Budget by the Wales Fiscal Analysis team 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

My latest article, published in the latest edition of @publiclaw.bsky.social, looks at the proposals to establish a 'recall' system for Members of the Senedd, how they compare to recall mechanisms elsewhere & what they tell us about Senedd reform uk.westlaw.com/Document/I1F... #Senedd #devolution

An interesting listen on one of the two great villains of Welsh political history (the other being Lloyd George, of course):

Listen to Dr @nyedavies.bsky.social discuss the life and political journey of totemic - and complex - figure of Welsh Labour history, Aneurin Bevan 👇 Available on the History Extra podcast from the BBC History Magazine in Apple, Spotify, and all other podcast apps open.spotify.com/episode/6sOy...

HMP Berwyn, the UK's largest prison, was once presented as an advance for the Welsh language. @robdjones.bsky.social and I argue that it’s been a categorical failure by that measure, posing troubling questions for Welsh language rights more widely: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Ft. @LauraMcAllister on the electoral challenge for Welsh Labour: “What you see is this perfect storm. Unfortunately for Labour, you’ve got public disillusion with the establishment in politics – and Labour is the establishment in Wales” #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/d2d49fe...

Here's our trailer for the pod with @lauramcallister30.bsky.social of @walesgovernance.bsky.social , Lauren McEvatt, and Lee Waters MS 👇

NEWYDD: Mae Weinyddiaeth Gyfiawnder Llywodraeth y DU yn dechrau cyhoeddi data carchardai 'Cymru yn unig' am y tro cyntaf yn dilyn degawd o ymchwil yn datgelu problemau yn system cyfiawnder troseddol Cymru gan Dr Robert Jones. 1/3 www.cardiff.ac.uk/cy/news/view...

NEW: The UK Govt's Ministry of Justice begins routinely publishing Wales-only prison data for the first time following a decade of research exposing issues in the Welsh criminal justice system by Dr Robert Jones. 1/3 www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/29...

@lauramcallister30.bsky.social, said fatigue and frustration had gripped Welsh Labour. “Having been in power for so long, the party hasn’t been able to reinvent itself, modernise itself, refresh itself.” 👇 #Senedd26 www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

'Ti’n gorfod pinsho dy hun.' Mae arolwg barn newydd yn awgrymu fod cefnogaeth y Blaid Lafur yng Nghymru wedi syrthio i lefel is nag 'oedden ni’n dychmygu fyddai’n bosib' meddai'r Athro Richard Wyn Jones. newyddion.s4c.cymru/article/30473

Dr Joseph Phillips yn trafod y cynnydd o drais gwleidyddol yn yr UDA a lladd Charlie Kirk gyda BBC Radio Wales 👇 @polpsychjoe.bsky.social discusses the rise in political violence in the United States and the assassination of Charlie Kirk with @bbccymruwales.bsky.social Radio Wales 👇

“It’s very, very difficult to exaggerate the historical significance of what’s going on here,” said @richardwynjones.bsky.social , “We’re seeing a potentially decisive break in Labour’s domination of Wales. They are in danger of falling into complete irrelevance.” #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

“Polling expert Dr Jac Larner said one of the problems facing Welsh Labour is that there is "a narrative building in Wales that if you want to stop Reform then the party you vote for is Plaid" and so many previous Labour voters are indicating they will vote tactically for Plaid Cymru in 2026.“

🎤Digwyddiad CLlC 🗣️ 13/10/2025 am 18.00 Rydym yn falch o fod yn cynnal Lee Waters MS, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social (IfG), Yr Athro James Mitchell (Prifysgol Edinburgh), Yr Athro Mark Drakeford, a @kirsty-williams.bsky.social i drafod 'Gweithrediad Llywodraeth ddatganoledig yng Nghymru'. Tocynnau👇

🎤 WGC EVENT 🗣️ We are delighted to be hosting Lee Waters MS, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social (IfG), Prof. James Mitchell (Univ. Edinburgh), Prof Mark Drakeford, and @kirsty-williams.bsky.social to discuss 'The Operation of Devolved Government in Wales'. Tickets here 👇 www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-fifth-...

Mae @pickardje.bsky.social yn cyfeirio at ein arolwg BARN Cymru diweddaraf yn yr FT a gwaith @jaclarner.bsky.social i dadansoddi'r canlyniadau. Jim Pickard writes in Morning Call (get well soon @stephenkb.bsky.social!) about our latest poll with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social ahead of #Senedd26

Podlediad BBC Radio Cymru #Gwleidydda diweddaraf gyda Cyfarwyddwr y Canolfan @richardwynjones.bsky.social a Vaughan Roderick 👇 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Plaid Cymru a Reform UK ym mhell ar y blaen, yn ôl arolwg barn Mae’r Athro Jac Larner o Ganolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru yn dweud bod yr arolwg yn darogan “ailstrwythuro o fewn gwleidyddiaeth yng Nghymru” #gwleidyddiaeth ✍️ Rhys Owen

Yn gynnwys canlyniadau ein arolwg BARN #Cymru gyda @itvcymruwales.bsky.social a blog diweddaraf @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social sy'n drafod ble mae pleidleiswyr Llafur 2024 yn mynd. Including our latest #Wales polling and James Breckwoldt's blog on where Labour's 2024 voters are going, and why. 👇

Lot of attention yesterday on Senedd component of the @walesgovernance.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk poll, but the Westminster figures are also quite… striking Reform 29% Plaid 23% Labour 18% Cons 11% Libdems 9% Greens 7% Other 4% Seat projection from @cavendishcymru.bsky.social

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

@jaclarner.bsky.social of the Wales Governance Centre said: "This latest ITV Wales poll confirms a trend leading into next year's Senedd election: the contest for the largest party is becoming a neck-and-neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.” #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

A write up of today's poll featuring analysis from @walesgovernance.bsky.social's @jaclarner.bsky.social can be found here www.itv.com/news/wales/2... #senedd #devolution

Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

Siaradodd @nyedavies.bsky.social â Nick Servini ar BBC Radio Wales y bore 'ma i drafod cystadleuaeth Dirprwy Arweinydd y Blaid Llafur: Dr Nye Davies on Radio Wales this morning, discussing the competition for the role of UK Labour's Deputy Leader and its connection with a famous Welsh MP:

NEWYDD: Adroddiad byr gan y tîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru ar y Dreth Gyngor yn Nghymru a’r achos brys dros diwygio. NEW: Short report by the Wales Fiscal Analys team about rising Council Tax rates in Wales and the urgent case for reform. 👇 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

The Welsh Government’s failure to reform Council Tax has put the people of Wales at a serious disadvantage compared with those in England and Scotland, according to new analysis released today ✍️ Martin Shipton

For those interested in Welsh politics, this is an interesting read from @walesgovernance.bsky.social's resident abacus operators on the case for reform of Council Tax in Wales blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...