“It’s very, very difficult to exaggerate the historical significance of what’s going on here,” said @richardwynjones.bsky.social , “We’re seeing a potentially decisive break in Labour’s domination of Wales. They are in danger of falling into complete irrelevance.” #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

“Polling expert Dr Jac Larner said one of the problems facing Welsh Labour is that there is "a narrative building in Wales that if you want to stop Reform then the party you vote for is Plaid" and so many previous Labour voters are indicating they will vote tactically for Plaid Cymru in 2026.“

🎤Digwyddiad CLlC 🗣️ 13/10/2025 am 18.00 Rydym yn falch o fod yn cynnal Lee Waters MS, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social (IfG), Yr Athro James Mitchell (Prifysgol Edinburgh), Yr Athro Mark Drakeford, a @kirsty-williams.bsky.social i drafod 'Gweithrediad Llywodraeth ddatganoledig yng Nghymru'. Tocynnau👇

🎤 WGC EVENT 🗣️ We are delighted to be hosting Lee Waters MS, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social (IfG), Prof. James Mitchell (Univ. Edinburgh), Prof Mark Drakeford, and @kirsty-williams.bsky.social to discuss 'The Operation of Devolved Government in Wales'. Tickets here 👇 www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-fifth-...

Mae @pickardje.bsky.social yn cyfeirio at ein arolwg BARN Cymru diweddaraf yn yr FT a gwaith @jaclarner.bsky.social i dadansoddi'r canlyniadau. Jim Pickard writes in Morning Call (get well soon @stephenkb.bsky.social!) about our latest poll with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social ahead of #Senedd26

Podlediad BBC Radio Cymru #Gwleidydda diweddaraf gyda Cyfarwyddwr y Canolfan @richardwynjones.bsky.social a Vaughan Roderick 👇 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Plaid Cymru a Reform UK ym mhell ar y blaen, yn ôl arolwg barn Mae’r Athro Jac Larner o Ganolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru yn dweud bod yr arolwg yn darogan “ailstrwythuro o fewn gwleidyddiaeth yng Nghymru” #gwleidyddiaeth ✍️ Rhys Owen

Yn gynnwys canlyniadau ein arolwg BARN #Cymru gyda @itvcymruwales.bsky.social a blog diweddaraf @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social sy'n drafod ble mae pleidleiswyr Llafur 2024 yn mynd. Including our latest #Wales polling and James Breckwoldt's blog on where Labour's 2024 voters are going, and why. 👇

Lot of attention yesterday on Senedd component of the @walesgovernance.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk poll, but the Westminster figures are also quite… striking Reform 29% Plaid 23% Labour 18% Cons 11% Libdems 9% Greens 7% Other 4% Seat projection from @cavendishcymru.bsky.social

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

@jaclarner.bsky.social of the Wales Governance Centre said: "This latest ITV Wales poll confirms a trend leading into next year's Senedd election: the contest for the largest party is becoming a neck-and-neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.” #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

A write up of today's poll featuring analysis from @walesgovernance.bsky.social's @jaclarner.bsky.social can be found here www.itv.com/news/wales/2... #senedd #devolution

Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

Siaradodd @nyedavies.bsky.social â Nick Servini ar BBC Radio Wales y bore 'ma i drafod cystadleuaeth Dirprwy Arweinydd y Blaid Llafur: Dr Nye Davies on Radio Wales this morning, discussing the competition for the role of UK Labour's Deputy Leader and its connection with a famous Welsh MP:

NEWYDD: Adroddiad byr gan y tîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru ar y Dreth Gyngor yn Nghymru a’r achos brys dros diwygio. NEW: Short report by the Wales Fiscal Analys team about rising Council Tax rates in Wales and the urgent case for reform. 👇 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

The Welsh Government’s failure to reform Council Tax has put the people of Wales at a serious disadvantage compared with those in England and Scotland, according to new analysis released today ✍️ Martin Shipton

For those interested in Welsh politics, this is an interesting read from @walesgovernance.bsky.social's resident abacus operators on the case for reform of Council Tax in Wales blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Analysis of English political attitudes suggests that Keir Starmer’s efforts to resolve the linked protests around flag-flying and ‘asylum hotels’ is unlikely to settle longstanding discontent among large numbers of the English electorate ✍️Emily Price

Erthygl newydd ar anfodlonrwydd cymdeithasol a radicaleiddio yn Lloegr gan @ailsahenderson.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social New piece in the @theconversation.com from the research team at @theunionsurvey.bsky.social about contemporary social and political discontent in #England 👇

Ar Faes yr @eisteddfod.cymru Genedlaethol, siaradodd @lauramcallister30.bsky.social gyda chyn-fyfyrwyr @prifysgolcdydd.bsky.social a chriw Llais y Maes o'r Ysgol Newyddiaduraeth ar wleidyddiaeth Cymru a phrofiad tîm menywod Cymru yn yr Ewros 2025:

Sylwadau @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar rhaglen brecwast BBC Radio Wales ar canmlwyddiant @plaidcymru.bsky.social Richard Wyn Jones speaks to James Williams on BBC Radio Wales Breakfast about the century since the founding of Plaid Cymru:

Cyfarwyddwr y canolfan @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar rhaglen @willhaycardiff.bsky.social i Radio 4 ar newidiadau arwyddocaol yng ngwleidyddiaeth Cymru o flaen #Senedd26 Richard Wyn Jones on Will Hayward's doc 'Turn Right for Wales' about the changes in Welsh politics ahead of next year's election

Ahead of what seems set to be the most unpredictable election, and the most fragmented (and potentially ungovernable?) #Senedd, in the history of Welsh #devolution, some fascinating listening on the prospects for the opposition parties

👇👇👇There’s a Senedd election next year, which looks set to be historic for Wales and could be momentous for future politics across Britain too. Assumptions developed in a Westminster context are often very misleading for Wales. Follow @jaclarner.bsky.social for key Welsh electoral politics insights.

Mae @jaclarner.bsky.social ar BBC Wales yr wythnos yma i drafod rhagolygon y pleidiau gwrthbleidiol yn Senedd Cymru o flaen yr etholiad nesaf: Dr Jac Larner discusses the prospects for opposition parties in the Welsh Parliament ahead of #Senedd26 and its new voting system this week on #WalesCast:

This story in @nation.cymru refers to our reports on the justice system in Wales and the problems caused by the 'jagged edge' between the devolved powers of the Welsh Government and the powers of the UK Government in Westminster: #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru nation.cymru/news/full-de...

Mae'r stori yma yn @nation.cymru yn cyfeirio at ein hadroddiadau ar y system cyfiawnder yng Nghymru a'r problemau wedi'u hachosi oherwydd y 'jagged edge' rhwng pwerau datganoledig Llywodraeth Cymru a phwerau Llywodraeth y DU yn San Steffan: #Senedd26 nation.cymru/news/full-de...

On the introduction of Votes at 16, @richardwynjones.bsky.social comments: "2021 was a false start. We need to start again, hopefully without Covid. And just basically pretend that 2021 didn't happen" #Senedd26 #Cymru #Wales www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

The summit agreement signed between the EU and the UK government on 19 May has significant implications for the UK’s devolved governments in Edinburgh, Belfast & Cardiff. Rachel Minto, @elinroyles.bsky.social & Carolyn Rowe look at ways these govts can shape its future ukandeu.ac.uk/intergovernm...

Referencing the Welsh Election Study's polling that highlights the pressure on its voting base from both Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, Bethan McKernan writes here about the challenges facing Labour ahead of #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

“Welsh Government are in a very difficult situation, in that both they are unpopular as incumbents and they're also paying a price for the unpopularity of the UK Labour government so there is a general resistance to taking any tough decisions”- @jaclarner.bsky.social www.politico.eu/article/wale...

From @skynewsrss.bsky.social: @jaclarner.bsky.social "[Eluned Morgan's] emphasis on the close relationship between Welsh and UK Labour echoes the message from Scottish Labour before their vote collapsed. It makes it "easier for voters to punish both"" #Senedd26 #Wales news.sky.com/story/welsh-...

@jaclarner.bsky.social - Predicting the number of seats that parties could win is "very, very difficult, especially under this new system", but it is "very within the realms of possibility that Eluned Morgan would lose her seat and would not get elected". #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

Join us at Welsh Labour Conference on Saturday! @richardwynjones.bsky.social and @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social will present the latest analyses from the Welsh Election Study before a discussion panel with Ruth Mosalski (WalesOnline), Jo Kiernan (Cavendish) and Owain Williams (Welsh Labour):

Ymunwch â ni Dydd Sadwrn yng nghynhadledd Llafur Cymru: Bydd @richardwynjones.bsky.social a @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social yn cyflwyno eu dadansoddiadau diwetharaf o'r Astudiaeth Etholiad Cymru cyn panel trafod gyda Ruth Mosalski, Jo Kiernan, ac @owain2026.bsky.social

Os yn byw yng Nghymru neu hefo'r diddordeb lleol yn y wlad yna mae'n RHAID DARLLEN hwn >>> ESSENTIAL READING for anyone in Wales or with the slightest interest in our country >>>

🚨 NEWYDD: Dadansoddiad llawn o beth fydd Adolygiad Gwariant ddoe yn ei olygu i Gymru. 💷 🚨 NEW: Full analysis of what yesterday's Spending Review will mean for Wales. 💷 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

🚨 Ymateb i'r cyhoeddiad am gyllid rheilffyrdd i Gymru gan dîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru 🚝 🚨 Our Wales Fiscal Analysis team’s response to today’s rail funding announcement for Wales 🚝 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

"This change, without transparent rationale or consultation, would again underline the arbitrary nature of how the Barnett formula is applied to Wales with respect to rail infrastructure." - Guto Ifan www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

@jaclarner.bsky.social from the Welsh Election Study: “Looking at the areas now voting Reform, they’re the same areas that always voted Labour, and it’s very easy to just make the logical mistake to assume it’s the same people doing it. That isn’t what we see” #Senedd26 www.ft.com/content/668f...

ERTHYGL NEWYDD gan Nye Davies a Shane Barter ar canrif dominyddiaeth etholiadol Llafur Cymru: NEW: @nyedavies.bsky.social & @profshane.bsky.social explore how Welsh Labour established and maintained over a century of dominance Nationalism and Ethnic Politics: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

@ailsahenderson.bsky.social & @richardwynjones.bsky.social "among those English-identifiers, we found ambivalence towards the Union as a project and a commonly held sense of grievance about the perceived cost and political influence of the other nations within the UK" @theunionsurvey.bsky.social

"This leaves Eluned Morgan between a rock and a hard place. Demand more from her Labour colleagues in London and face refusal. Do nothing and risk being even more exposed to the snapping at her ankles from Reform UK & Plaid Cymru" @lauramcallister30.bsky.social www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-op...

@nyedavies.bsky.social writes for the @uk.theconversation.com about the 'red Welsh way' slogan debuted in a recent speech by FM Eluned Morgan and the challenge of differentiation faced by Welsh Labour in the run up the national election in Wales in 2026 #Senedd26 theconversation.com/the-red-wels...

Ymchwil @jaclarner.bsky.social ar effaith scandalau 'Campervangate' a 'Partygate' ar lefelau ymddiriodolaeth yn y sefydliadau a gwleidyddion yr Alban a San Steffan. Featuring research from Dr Jac Larner on the effect of scandals on trust in Scottish/UK governments: www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/...

🚨 VODCAST #SENEDD26 @ybydyneile.bsky.social ar @s4c.cymru 🚨 Gyda blwyddyn i fynd tan Etholiad Senedd Cymru yn 2026, mae @catrinhj.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social a phanel o westeion yn ôl i drin a thrafod y cyfan. Ystadegau ecsgliwsif ar annibyniaeth hefyd 👀👇 youtu.be/MZDOyA1vd6o

Join @danielwincott.bsky.social and Dr Giada Lagana of the Wales Governance Centre for 'Political Change Across Britain and Ireland: Identities, Institutions and Futures', 15/05/25 at 16:00 Hosted by the Irish Consul General in Wales and IACES, this special event features political experts in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿& 🇮🇪:

Araith Eluned Morgan yn “arwyddocaol” – ond “fydd dim dylanwad” ar Syr Keir Starmer Yr Athro Laura McAllister sy’n adlewyrchu ar drywydd newydd i’r Blaid Lafur yng Nghymru, a syndod mawr yr arolwg barn diweddaraf #gwleidyddiaeth ✍️ Efan Owen