🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇

On leaders, Rhun ap Iorwerth is favourite for First Minister in head to head comparisons, with caveat that a clear majority just aren't sure Will be doing some more on next few days on attitudes to government formation and issues with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social

Dr @jaclarner.bsky.social ar Sharp End neithiwr yn trafod pôl piniwn diweddaraf @YouGov / @itvcymruwales.bsky.social Dr Jac Larner on ITV Sharp End last night discussing the latest Barn Cymru poll. Full programme link below 👇 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

Barely 2 per cent of Britons belong to a political party. Yet this tiny, unrepresentative minority helps decide who gets selected to stand for Parliament, who gets to lead our parties and, ultimately, who gets to govern the country. So who are they? journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Perfect if you want to know more about the upcoming Welsh election!

New piece from w/ @hannahbunting.bsky.social & @jess-smith.bsky.social on the Gorton & Denton byelection, and what it might tell us about British politics. We cover turnout, late-deciding voters, gender gaps & the continuing fragmentation of the party system 🧵 theconversation.com/late-decider...

New post by me on how and why support for Labour has dropped since the general election, and how the Green by-election win yesterday increases the chances of a Reform majority at the next GE because tactical coordination failure on the left is now more likely. electionsetc.com/2026/02/27/t...

Great to speak with @meganekenyon.bsky.social of @newstatesman1913.bsky.social on location about the result in Gorton and Denton, including the role of party blocs! Clipped my bit below, but you can watch the whole video here (bonus, there is a cat!): youtu.be/dUh_1XuAg-g?...

Here's a table in the new @britishelectionstudy.com book (forthcoming). We calculated 'second preferences' - here Labour voters after elections 2015 to 2024. 50% of Labour's 2024 voters had Greens as second preference. 42% the Lib Dems. The left bloc is coalescing behind the most viable left party!

🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨 New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of: 1) bottom-up public demand 2) elites are neglecting it 3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it tinyurl.com/44ryyybc 🧵

Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs! labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi... If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Reform are still toxic to many voters in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿. Too right-wing for most Labour voters, too British for most SNP voters That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 than 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 or 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right

This graph from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social et al's paper (free to read!) academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... - shows within bloc switching was higher than across bloc switching in 2015, 2017 and 2024:

🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.

For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...

Right let's breakdown this new poll for Wales because there is a lot going on below the headline figures. [Thread]

👇👇Upcoming Senedd elections look set to break the mould of Welsh party politics and rock UK Labour. To understand the ‘made in Wales’ and UK influences on this ‘within bloc’ realignment read @jaclarner.bsky.social & @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social 👇👇 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

🚨 NEW BLOG Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why? @jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs! blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Are Reform at their ceiling? @martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch. We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability. Link here: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...

In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...

🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered? Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social

UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me). There's so much useful info in them. The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!

NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget? Read on for our answer... @nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

Excellent blog, and equally excellent metaphor, on Caerphilly. Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.

NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...

It's also worth mentioning that Labour tried their *own* poll-like stunt weeks before the Camlas poll, arguably to a much higher degree of publicity than PC - if Hedges is right and the polls were mostly to blame then how much more money would they have to have spent on billboards to make it work?!

"We'd have won if not for those pesky polls" Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene. And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯 labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...

If Labour’s takeaway from Caerphilly is ‘we’d have won but for anti-Reform tactical voting,’ they’re in for a rude awakening in May. Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea? labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...

By-elections are always tough for incumbents, but this one (and national polls) show how badly Welsh Labour are struggling. With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.

Some personal news

I've done deep-dive into latest @britishelectionstudy.com wave to explain rise of Reform: - Who are their voters? (pretty working-class) - What do they care about? (immigration) - What do they want? (lower immigration) - Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance 🧵 of results

NEW! In Liverpool for Labour Conference... Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands. Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Every year around this time, I get requests from students doing their Baccalauréat Francais International for help with their projects on sport and soft power. All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

To add to the interest of the Welsh election, there is an expanded Senedd and new electoral system in 2026! Of wider relevance, polling from Wales suggests what can happen when Labour has a viable alternative on their left flank, given that people are more volatile now.

Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy). That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens. This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

It was really fun to talk to @matthewholehouse.bsky.social about our paper. Voters now separate political parties into left-liberal and right-conservative blocs, and most of the (extensive) vote switching that we saw in 2024 (and since) is within these blocs. This is really important going forward.

Whichever councillor in West Oxfordshire compared a solar farm to Aberfan should feel absolutely ashamed of themselves. A completely disgraceful comparison for which they should apologise.

🚨DATA RELEASE 🚨 The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research! www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...

Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.

Interested in Labour's lost voters since the 2024 UK GE? Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released? Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇

Day 4 of #ecprgc25! Had a wonderful feast with a local friend and am enjoying a drink by the sea with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social!

🚨 Ymateb i'r cyhoeddiad am gyllid rheilffyrdd i Gymru gan dîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru 🚝 🚨 Our Wales Fiscal Analysis team’s response to today’s rail funding announcement for Wales 🚝 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

I spoke to BBC Radio 4's Jim Naughtie yesterday on The World This Weekend. If you want to understand the long-term context for why British politics is becoming more fragmented - why party choice is splintering - here's what I said: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/... @britishelectionstudy.com

Great write up of their fascinating research on the different time horizons of politicians and voters by @qmpoliticsir.bsky.social's finest, @philipjcowley.bsky.social , @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social