I've done deep-dive into latest @britishelectionstudy.com wave to explain rise of Reform: - Who are their voters? (pretty working-class) - What do they care about? (immigration) - What do they want? (lower immigration) - Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance 🧵 of results

NEW! In Liverpool for Labour Conference... Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands. Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Every year around this time, I get requests from students doing their Baccalauréat Francais International for help with their projects on sport and soft power. All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

To add to the interest of the Welsh election, there is an expanded Senedd and new electoral system in 2026! Of wider relevance, polling from Wales suggests what can happen when Labour has a viable alternative on their left flank, given that people are more volatile now.

Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy). That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens. This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

It was really fun to talk to @matthewholehouse.bsky.social about our paper. Voters now separate political parties into left-liberal and right-conservative blocs, and most of the (extensive) vote switching that we saw in 2024 (and since) is within these blocs. This is really important going forward.

Whichever councillor in West Oxfordshire compared a solar farm to Aberfan should feel absolutely ashamed of themselves. A completely disgraceful comparison for which they should apologise.

🚨DATA RELEASE 🚨 The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research! www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...

Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.

Interested in Labour's lost voters since the 2024 UK GE? Want to get a sneak peak at some of the results from wave 30 of the BESIP before it is released? Then we have a new blog for you! 👇👇

Day 4 of #ecprgc25! Had a wonderful feast with a local friend and am enjoying a drink by the sea with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social!

🚨 Ymateb i'r cyhoeddiad am gyllid rheilffyrdd i Gymru gan dîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru 🚝 🚨 Our Wales Fiscal Analysis team’s response to today’s rail funding announcement for Wales 🚝 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

I spoke to BBC Radio 4's Jim Naughtie yesterday on The World This Weekend. If you want to understand the long-term context for why British politics is becoming more fragmented - why party choice is splintering - here's what I said: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/... @britishelectionstudy.com

Great write up of their fascinating research on the different time horizons of politicians and voters by @qmpoliticsir.bsky.social's finest, @philipjcowley.bsky.social , @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social

@jaclarner.bsky.social from the Welsh Election Study: “Looking at the areas now voting Reform, they’re the same areas that always voted Labour, and it’s very easy to just make the logical mistake to assume it’s the same people doing it. That isn’t what we see” #Senedd26 www.ft.com/content/668f...

Interesting piece on one of the enduring ideological divides within the Welsh Conservative party: the #devolution question. IIRC - as recently as 2005 a vote on abolishing devolution (as part of a multi question referendum that would also include more powers) was party policy #senedd

What an extremely relevant graph for what happened yesterday

SES @scotvoting.bsky.social annual lecture by @profjanegreen.bsky.social 2 mins in and we've got a neat graph #winning

UK has a comparatively difficult registration process. Our comparative analysis of registration difficulty in 62 countries is timely as Labour consider introducing automatic voter registration. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

🚨NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 Though people have moved on from Brexit, they still vote in line with their Brexit preferences - with age/education still separating voters. Voters now back party blocs, which matters greatly for Labour's current appeals to Reform voters. 🧵 academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

If you're interested in where Reform are getting their votes from, we made a really short video about it last year! This was about their 2024 voters, but (given the long-term trends) I'd be shocked if it had changed a lot since then! youtu.be/Z8s9hzTsruc?...

This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015. This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.

New @itvcymruwales.bsky.social poll shows substantial shift in Welsh political landscape. Plaid Cymru leads with 30%, Reform UK at 25%, Labour at 18% - their lowest since devolution- & Conservatives on 13% - one of their poorest Welsh polling performances in 2 decades. 🧵 www.itv.com/news/wales/2...

BACK-TO-BACK-TO-BACK PROMOTIONS 🙌 History makers. The story of a lifetime 🤩 🔴⚪️ #WxmAFC

Today’s BBC Newscast episode on the local elections next week - featuring me, 99% politics explanation and analysis, 1% mention of neon tetras. With Adam Fleming, Chris Mason and Matt Chorley: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

We made some pithy explainers for you! Please watch these short films: Four tips for interpreting these local elections: www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DSb... Reform Revolution? Four hurdles Reform will still need to overcome: www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6ZG...

📣 CALLING ALL QUANT SOCIAL SCIENTISTS! 📣 Do you know of causally identified research that estimates the effect of higher education on political attitudes? @elizabethsim0n.bsky.social and I are currently working on a meta-analysis on this question and we need your help!

Brilliant paper on the 2024 UK General Election. If you want to know how Labour went from a huge defeat in 2019 to a huge victory in 2024 on almost the same vote share, then this is the paper for you!

Very happy to have contributed the chapter on "The 2017 General Election," which looks at why the election was called, what happened in the campaign, and the aftermath for Theresa May. You can read it here: ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/the-...

Delighted to be (a small) part of the big @ukandeu.bsky.social big Brexit Files report. media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u... My 1000 words (at p 123) considers how UK political leaders - and decisions taken by the U.K. Supreme Court - have weakened devolution since the Brexit referendum. A wee 🧵 1/n

New analysis of census and election data: the marginals Labour must hold in 2024 are more 'Middle England' than 'Red Wall'. Do Labour have a strategy for this? I argue they are sending mixed signals at best:

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 "Does disability affect support for political parties?" Just published in Electoral Studies, co-authored with Melanie Jones. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 🧵 👇

We've had a look at support for Reform UK and the potential impact of Nigel Farage's return. We find that there are a lot of similarities to UKIP in 2015! This is also the second video that I've put together for the BES, so hopefully you enjoy!

This was a lot of fun to work on (and my first experience making a summary video like this). Please give it a watch/read if you're interested in the 2024 UK GE. In short, the Lib Dems benefitted a lot from anti-Conservative tactical voting when they were the main anti-Tory option!

Interested in the next UK General Election? Read our new blog, which explores the persistence of Brexit and what's happened to Conservative support since 2019 Spoiler: they're losing both pro- and anti-Europe voters, and their perceived performance in Govt plays a big role!

🌐📊 BES Internet Panel Wave 25 is live! 📈🌐 - Covers the May 2023 local elections - New questions on attitudes towards the economy, including new measures on nationalisation - Fixes to profiles data to ensure maximum completeness on demographics www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...