There is an important debate on the left about whether describing ‘Britain’ as ‘broken’ feeds the far(ageist) right. Folk need to take account of such prosaic realities as the longer term hollowing out of local govt capacity.

Come to find out how Gwyn Alf Williams and Tommy Cooper can both be quoted in one blog. Stay for excellent analysis of what the Caerphilly result might mean for Welsh Labour (the most successful political party in democratic history).

I wonder if the people proposing this strategy have encountered the Brexit referendum, in which a government tried to stop an insurgent, Faragist movement focused on immigration by talking exclusively about economic risk.

Emily Maitlis saying the quiet part out loud about Monarchy and the enforcement of the law. She said, in effect, that now Andrew is no longer a Prince, he can be investigated by the police in broadly the same way as ordinary people. (Radio 4 PM)

NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...

A devolved election in Wales is featuring prominently in UK-wide media. I wonder if a note has gone out to BBC English language journals not to say the word Senedd? The ‘Welsh Parliament’ , its ’official title’ in English, has more syllables. It’s ‘commonly known as the Senedd’. senedd.wales

Quite right on the Westminster reporters caravan. But the underlying article is painfully miscuing its readers. As well as ignoring the Senedd election, drawing the conclusion that the next UK election will be a Labour-Reform contest is to turn your back to the future.

My take on the Caerffili by-election and the political state of play six months from the Senedd election: www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-op...

Oh for f**k's sake, we would never have hyped a Caerphilly by-election if Reform weren't going to win it 🤣🤣 (h/t @richardwynjones.bsky.social ) www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/oh-...

Tickets for Reform's UK's Welsh victory event are still available to buy online with Caerphilly by-election candidate Llŷr Powell booked as a guest speaker along with Lee Anderson who was active throughout the party's failed campaign ✍️ Emily Price

Remarkable victory for Plaid Cymru. Expect lots of attention (rightly) on Labour’s collapse to 11% of the vote. How much attention will the Conservatives get for their 2%?

Coverage in @financialtimes.com of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, featuring analysis from the Enron of Welsh political statistics, and friend of the gnomes of Zurich, @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @jaclarner.bsky.social #senedd #devolution

@electoralstudies.bsky.social If you’re interested in academic studies of political polarisation we have loads of great papers at Electoral Studies. Check out this one by Joseph Phillips www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

HMP Berwyn, the UK's largest prison, was once presented as an advance for the Welsh language. @robdjones.bsky.social and I argue that it’s been a categorical failure by that measure, posing troubling questions for Welsh language rights more widely: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

I‘m giving a public talk at UCL on Thurs 16 Oct. The title is “Bureaucracy and distrust: the civil service in the constitution” looking at the civil service’s constitutional foundations, and how it might respond to a populist govt. @sirJJkc.bsky.social will chair! www.ucl.ac.uk/laws/events/...

Which reminds me of Nightingale's first law of science policy "Fund more history"

📢ICON GBIE, TRICON, QUB Webinar: Familiarity, Culture & Expertise: The Future of Referendums in Ireland & the UK Oct 17th 10:00-13:00 Online To register follow the link below: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/0d55a0... 1/3 👇

Among other posts in an excellent thread, this is one that resonates here in Wales, with our national election on the horizon next May. Labour in Wales has been talking about voters going to Reform for a long time, whereas pollsters have been highlighting that any Labour-Ref switchers are long gone

Or were once left leaning. It seems to me that some (but only some) UK university leaders come to believe what they used to critique. They almost to treat their own earlier academic work as a mirror-image playbook.

What would a critic of Oxford PPE write as parody of a rushed tutorial essay?

Unscramble these eggs

Great. Let’s keep power as centralised as possible. That’ll work well if Farage become PM.

Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy). That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens. This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.

No wonder Farage quit worrying and learned to love FPTP

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

To put the 14% in perspective it would not just be Labour's worst performance in Wales since it supplanted the Liberals in 1922, but its lowest vote share at any national election in Wales since 1906 (when it only contested a handful of seats due to the Gladstone-MacDonald pact) #senedd #devolution

Oof. Welsh Labour hopes for benefits flowing from partnership with a Labour government have, it seems, been dashed. Is anyone in the UK party thinking about the medium term consequences of Labour losing Wales?

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

‘I was there. I kept the receipts. I remember how normalized the sexual exploitation of teenage girls and even tweens by adult men was, how it showed up in movies, in the tales of rock stars and “baby groupies”’ Powerful piece from @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Its correct to call Robinson’s rally larger than any far right rally in history. 3/4 of people on it would say it was not far right, and would deny racism About 1/4 on it may be happy to own racism The ostensibly moderate/peaceful frame is one reason it can go wider than Mosley or Britain First

I’ve looked into this now. I can’t find an example of a far right march or rally attracting much more than 10,000. A far right march on this scale is completely new for the UK.

A moving tribute.

Siaradodd @nyedavies.bsky.social â Nick Servini ar BBC Radio Wales y bore 'ma i drafod cystadleuaeth Dirprwy Arweinydd y Blaid Llafur: Dr Nye Davies on Radio Wales this morning, discussing the competition for the role of UK Labour's Deputy Leader and its connection with a famous Welsh MP:

I’m old enough to remember when Farage railed against the inequity of FPTP www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Apocalypse Now as an aspiration for the US? If this stuff wasn’t so far beyond the possibility of parody, I’d think some folk in his administration were trying to undermine Trump.

Fascinating stuff. Cardiff is in the analysis, but not discussed directly in the text. The report shows its a place for which higher education is critical to the city’s economy. Makes the Welsh Govt’s largely hands off approach to retrenchment and downsizing at Cardiff Uni all the more baffling. 1/3

For years, Nigel Farage has thrived on grievance politics. But why do his “solutions” never solve the problems – and why do voters keep feeling aggrieved? A view by Prof Ailsa Henderson and Prof Richard Wyn-Jones. From #TheConversation -- thanks!

Crucial stuff from @robertsaunders.bsky.social The tendency of judges to cite Dicey as an unchanging point of reference (esp in Brexit cases) contributes significantly to this misunderstanding.

This. I think it's vital to appreciate that the Parliament which originally claimed sovereignty is not the same institution anymore. And that there is no conceivable way of going back to that institution without making governance dreadfully inefficient in the 21st c. So reform must lie elsewhere.

Crucial stuff from @robertsaunders.bsky.social The tendency of judges to cite Dicey as an unchanging point of reference (esp in Brexit cases) contributes significantly to this misunderstanding.

The Union Survey: tracking English political attitudes for 15 years (long hard work excavating these issues from sedimented assumptions about ‘British’ politics). Here’s hoping folk pay attention now English grievance is ubiquitous on the surface of the political news. @theunionsurvey.bsky.social

👇👇👇 Essential reading on common frameworks and what the UKG is doing after its review of UKIMA. Starmer’s Labour still seems to assume that the abrasive stance of recent Tory govts is definitively in the past, not thinking about how to minimise the risk of it recurring. 👇👇👇

👇👇👇There’s a Senedd election next year, which looks set to be historic for Wales and could be momentous for future politics across Britain too. Assumptions developed in a Westminster context are often very misleading for Wales. Follow @jaclarner.bsky.social for key Welsh electoral politics insights.

@robdjones.bsky.social and I are guest editing a special issue of @howardjournalcj.bsky.social which explores the rights of prisoners in the UK and elsewhere. It follows an @slsauk.bsky.social seminar held in Liverpool in 2023, and features a brilliant set of legal academics and criminologists.

UK Government response to the UKIMA review here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/686fa1...

Puzzling questions for the Labour Party (Wales and UK): Why is Labour polling 3rd behind Plaid and Reform on Senedd vote intentions? What are the implications of Labour losing ground in the Senedd election in places that have historically sent a swathe of MPs to Westminster?

I find it fascinating how much of modern policy thought essentially resolves as 'a command economy, but in a free market way', and I genuinely think it is because of the influence of video games.

@jcrangle.bsky.social historical piece on the background to recent violence in Ballymena is well worth a read. Growing up in Edinburgh, I recall many folk in the 1980s claiming that fascists had never had a presence in the city. And then watching the NF marching across the Meadows.

The UK looks ungovernable (on these numbers under FPTP)