Fascinating contrast between Senedd and Westminster voting intentions in Wales. Westminster, where FPTP should create incentives for tactical voting, shows the Welsh/Left bloc fragmented. Reform has consolidated the British/Right bloc, so could to clean up Westminster seats in Wales at a UK GE.

🚨 NEW BLOG Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why? @jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs! blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...

In a multi-party system it's all about bloc politics...

Wish I could have been there for what looks like an essential event for anyone interested in understanding 1) Northern Ireland 2) the UK Union. You can read the report - written by the leading experts on these matters - here: nihrc.org/publication/...

👀👀👀age profile of party support! @willhaycardiff.bsky.social thread digging into the @walesgovernance.bsky.social poll. Could change as people get older, of course. But underscores that ‘muscular unionism’ is somewhere between a self-limiting and self-defeating politics outside England.

👇👇Upcoming Senedd elections look set to break the mould of Welsh party politics and rock UK Labour. To understand the ‘made in Wales’ and UK influences on this ‘within bloc’ realignment read @jaclarner.bsky.social & @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social 👇👇 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Bwriadau pleidleisio Senedd / Senedd Voting Intention (YouGov - nid MRP/ not MRP method) / (28/11 - 10/12) PC: 33% REF: 30% LLAF/LAB: 10% CEID/CON: 10% GWYRDD/GRN: 9% DEM RHYDD/LD: 6% ERAILL/OTH: 2% N=1,891 Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

🚨Final YouGov/Cardiff University Senedd Vote Intention opinion polling of 2025 to be published Wednesday morning🚨 🚨Arolwg barn terfynol YouGov/Prifysgol Caerdydd ar gyfer 2025 - Bwriad Pleidleisio Senedd i'w gyhoeddi fore Mercher🚨

NEWYDD: Dadansoddiad newydd gan dîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru ar y cytundeb cyllidebol rhwng Llywodraeth Cymru a Phlaid Cymru: NEW: New analysis from the Wales Fiscal Analysis on the Welsh Governmentt - Plaid Cymru Budget Deal: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Mae'r recordiad o'n Darlith Flynyddol 2025 gan Yr Athro Syr John Curtice, Prifysgol Ystrad Clud, nawr ar gael ar YouTube The recording ofour 2025 Annual Lecture by Prof. Sir John Curtice of @unistrathclyde.bsky.social is now on YouTube 👇 'Can Devolution Survive the UK's New Politics?' #Senedd26

👀👀👀

Is welfare spending ''out of control''? It's estimated to be 10.8 per cent of GDP this financial year. That's just 0.8 per cent of GDP higher than in 2007-08, and total welfare spending has actually fallen fallen by 1.2 per cent of GDP since 2012-13⤵️ buff.ly/s5mz97u

Me @ruthhoughton.bsky.social & Cher Weixia Chen co-edited a Handbook on Global Governance 📔 Some amazing scholars critically think what “global” & “governance” mean in & how ideologies shape institutions & frameworks that claim to address global challenges 1/4 www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/res...

This 👇 Railways are large capital intensive infrastructure with very significant market failures - few things manage to be both natural monopolies and public goods with extensive externalities. Ownership doesn't really change the fundamentals. Private monopolies and public monopolies same same..

“The glaring weaknesses of prisoners’ Welsh language rights also demand fresh consideration of the anomalous constitutional arrangements governing prisons in Wales. The only common law country in the world to have its own legislature and executive without its own justice system.” 1/2

Good journals are swamped with this stuff and lower tier journals struggle to get reviewers who can see through the methods section It gets cited (a lot!) so editors who should know better let it through.

🙋‍♀️ @paulnightingale.bsky.social me too! I call it: "The "Nexus" Nexus" 😅 Recipe 🟢 Pick 1 econ var 🟢 Pick 2+ "green" vars 🟢 Pick 3+ methods (unit root, cointegration, Granger causality, GMM, ECM, FMOLS, PMG, PVAR, wavelet) 🟢 Misinterpret results 🟢 Make absurd policy recommendations Rinse & repeat!

Not the main point here, but I’m struck by this use of ‘policy wonk’ language.

NEWYDD - Adroddiad gan @robdjones.bsky.social yn dadansoddi'r data diweddaraf ar garchardai a charchariad yng Nghymru 👇 NEW - Report from Dr Robert Jones analyses the latest data on prisons and imprisonment in Wales 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...

Yn cynnwys ymchwil gan @jaclarner.bsky.social / Including research from Dr Jac Larner: #Senedd26 #Cymru #Wales www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politic...

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

There is an important debate on the left about whether describing ‘Britain’ as ‘broken’ feeds the far(ageist) right. Folk need to take account of such prosaic realities as the longer term hollowing out of local govt capacity.

Come to find out how Gwyn Alf Williams and Tommy Cooper can both be quoted in one blog. Stay for excellent analysis of what the Caerphilly result might mean for Welsh Labour (the most successful political party in democratic history).

I wonder if the people proposing this strategy have encountered the Brexit referendum, in which a government tried to stop an insurgent, Faragist movement focused on immigration by talking exclusively about economic risk.

Emily Maitlis saying the quiet part out loud about Monarchy and the enforcement of the law. She said, in effect, that now Andrew is no longer a Prince, he can be investigated by the police in broadly the same way as ordinary people. (Radio 4 PM)

NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...

A devolved election in Wales is featuring prominently in UK-wide media. I wonder if a note has gone out to BBC English language journals not to say the word Senedd? The ‘Welsh Parliament’ , its ’official title’ in English, has more syllables. It’s ‘commonly known as the Senedd’. senedd.wales

Quite right on the Westminster reporters caravan. But the underlying article is painfully miscuing its readers. As well as ignoring the Senedd election, drawing the conclusion that the next UK election will be a Labour-Reform contest is to turn your back to the future.

My take on the Caerffili by-election and the political state of play six months from the Senedd election: www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-op...

Oh for f**k's sake, we would never have hyped a Caerphilly by-election if Reform weren't going to win it 🤣🤣 (h/t @richardwynjones.bsky.social ) www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/oh-...

Tickets for Reform's UK's Welsh victory event are still available to buy online with Caerphilly by-election candidate Llŷr Powell booked as a guest speaker along with Lee Anderson who was active throughout the party's failed campaign ✍️ Emily Price

Remarkable victory for Plaid Cymru. Expect lots of attention (rightly) on Labour’s collapse to 11% of the vote. How much attention will the Conservatives get for their 2%?

Coverage in @financialtimes.com of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, featuring analysis from the Enron of Welsh political statistics, and friend of the gnomes of Zurich, @walesgovernance.bsky.social’s @jaclarner.bsky.social #senedd #devolution

@electoralstudies.bsky.social If you’re interested in academic studies of political polarisation we have loads of great papers at Electoral Studies. Check out this one by Joseph Phillips www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

HMP Berwyn, the UK's largest prison, was once presented as an advance for the Welsh language. @robdjones.bsky.social and I argue that it’s been a categorical failure by that measure, posing troubling questions for Welsh language rights more widely: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

I‘m giving a public talk at UCL on Thurs 16 Oct. The title is “Bureaucracy and distrust: the civil service in the constitution” looking at the civil service’s constitutional foundations, and how it might respond to a populist govt. @sirJJkc.bsky.social will chair! www.ucl.ac.uk/laws/events/...

Which reminds me of Nightingale's first law of science policy "Fund more history"

📢ICON GBIE, TRICON, QUB Webinar: Familiarity, Culture & Expertise: The Future of Referendums in Ireland & the UK Oct 17th 10:00-13:00 Online To register follow the link below: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/0d55a0... 1/3 👇

Among other posts in an excellent thread, this is one that resonates here in Wales, with our national election on the horizon next May. Labour in Wales has been talking about voters going to Reform for a long time, whereas pollsters have been highlighting that any Labour-Ref switchers are long gone

Or were once left leaning. It seems to me that some (but only some) UK university leaders come to believe what they used to critique. They almost to treat their own earlier academic work as a mirror-image playbook.

What would a critic of Oxford PPE write as parody of a rushed tutorial essay?

Unscramble these eggs

Great. Let’s keep power as centralised as possible. That’ll work well if Farage become PM.

Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy). That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens. This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.

No wonder Farage quit worrying and learned to love FPTP

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

To put the 14% in perspective it would not just be Labour's worst performance in Wales since it supplanted the Liberals in 1922, but its lowest vote share at any national election in Wales since 1906 (when it only contested a handful of seats due to the Gladstone-MacDonald pact) #senedd #devolution

Oof. Welsh Labour hopes for benefits flowing from partnership with a Labour government have, it seems, been dashed. Is anyone in the UK party thinking about the medium term consequences of Labour losing Wales?

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.