Education? Completed it, mate. Last week, I defended my PhD thesis and am now a doctor! Thank you to @robfordmancs.bsky.social and @jonmellon.bsky.social for being great supervisors for 4 years And thanks to @sarahobolt.bsky.social and Ed Fieldhouse for their interesting feedback and discussion

I think this is why coverage of the last 18 months of the last govt was so confused. To the Westminster model of elections, the Tories were *saying* all the right things to win, yet it wasn't moving the polls, because the consequences of their governing were unpopular, and that's what mattered.

In which I channel my inner GCSE English language student to argue that there's a difference between governing in the passive voice and governing in the active voice

The Swingometer is back up and running today after an extended book writing hiatus. I've taken a long look at Reform's May local elections performance, how FPP is now Farage's friend, and why it may get even better for Reform (& worse for Lab & Con) next May: open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

But don't take my word for it, just listen to Tyson Fury 😆

The thing is, this is it. For all the ink spilled about why the govt is unpopular, it really is first and foremost the cost of living. Any analysis that ignores it is wrong. By far the biggest commonality across *all* groups of Labour defectors is a belief they aren't delivering on cost of living.

Podlediad BBC Radio Cymru #Gwleidydda diweddaraf gyda Cyfarwyddwr y Canolfan @richardwynjones.bsky.social a Vaughan Roderick 👇 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Yn gynnwys canlyniadau ein arolwg BARN #Cymru gyda @itvcymruwales.bsky.social a blog diweddaraf @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social sy'n drafod ble mae pleidleiswyr Llafur 2024 yn mynd. Including our latest #Wales polling and James Breckwoldt's blog on where Labour's 2024 voters are going, and why. 👇

Productivity downgrades are not everything, but they are almost everything: today's newsletter: www.ft.com/content/6567...

Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy). That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens. This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.

The seat projections are pretty dramatic. Allowing for movement of a few points in many directions: Plaid Cymru ~38 seats, Reform UK ~35 seats, Labour ~11 seats, Conservatives ~6 seats, Lib Dems ~3 seats, Greens ~ 1 🧵

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

Excellent piece and thread this. Does at least have some very obvious strategic implications…

Sharp fall from 2024 to now in willingness to vote Labour. Liberal Democrat switchers went from 7.9 to 5.2. Green switchers went from 8.4 to 5.3. Don’t knows went from 7.8 to 5.5. Reform switchers fell from 7.8 to 3.2.

Sharp drop in Starmer's ratings between 2024 election and 2025. Liberal Democrat switchers’s rating for him fell from 6.9 to 4.3. Green switchers went from 5.9 to 3.5. Don’t knows went from 6.1 to 4.2. Reform switchers went from 6.4 to 2.3.

Across all groups, economic issues dominate. In every group but Reform switchers, “the economy” is the most named most important issue, usually far and above any other. Most of those drifting away are doing so while keeping their focus on core economic concerns.

Other than people who stuck with Labour, majority of every group say government handled economy “very" or “fairly" badly and most respondents in every group say situation in country either got "a lot" or “a little" worse. When asked about own finances, results are less harsh, but still worrying.

If people think economy is in bad shape, what do they want done about it? Every group places itself on the pro-tax & spend side Crucially, don’t knows, Lib Dem, Greens, other party and SNP/Plaid all put themselves being more supportive of tax/spend than they see current government as being.

Labour seen as too hostile to immigration by liberal-left, but too friendly to immigration by everyone else Green see themselves as pro-immigration (+0.6) but Labour as anti (-1.4) Reform see themselves as anti-immigration (-3.9) but Labour as pro (+1.2) - same but less extreme for don't knows

*However* in looking specifically at Labour's Lost Voters, @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social makes a strong case that you can Fix The Centre Left with Good Economic Policy (or, I guess, Bad Economic Policy that they perceive/experience as good): jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-happe...

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/why-increa... Late to read this substack piece by @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social (randomly popped up on substack app, which is otherwise terribly put together). It's very good!

I am beyond excited to announce that ggplot2 4.0.0 has just landed on CRAN. It's not every day we have a new major #ggplot2 release but it is a fitting 18 year birthday present for the package. Get an overview of the release in this blog post and be on the lookout for more in-depth posts #rstats

For contrast, here's the slightly starker view with top currentVI plotted on the political compass.

This is great fun to read.

The weird and wonderful history of British voter segmentations: the names, the ideas, the myths! From how "the man on the Clapham omnibus" changed English common law to how "Gail's Voter" helped the Lib Dems gain 64 seats in 2024 to what works well when doing segmentation (and what doesn't)

It is amazing how many "but most people don't like Reform or think they'd make a good government" arguments clearly haven't looked at Labour's figures in about a year - the 'very unfavourable' proportions towards both are nearly identical.

Should undergraduate students pick their specialisation from Y1 (like the UK) or Y3 (like the US)? South Korea just moved to an earlier specialisation (like the UK), which reduced student wages because they were less able to adjust to a changing job market www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

I also built a random voter segmentation name generator if you, like me, find the bizarre/stupid/cliché/genius names that have been used over the years to be hilarious. jamesbreckwoldt.shinyapps.io/randomvoters...

A brilliant (and amusjng) article!

This by @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social is brilliant: great fun: serious message.

The weird and wonderful history of British voter segmentations: the names, the ideas, the myths! From how "the man on the Clapham omnibus" changed English common law to how "Gail's Voter" helped the Lib Dems gain 64 seats in 2024 to what works well when doing segmentation (and what doesn't)

The *last* thing this party needs is closed lists!

Culture war battery asked again 💪

🚨DATA RELEASE 🚨 The BES team are pleased to announce the release of Wave 30 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. Please follow the link below, and we look forward to seeing your research! www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resource...

Holy crap this is exciting - my latest book now has a cover and in available for preorder! It breaks down how Cymru has been let down by successive governments both in London and Cardiff. But it also shows how the very system itself is setup for Wales to fail. 1/2

I’ve written today for @thetimes.com on how our shortening attention spans are damaging our politics. Another slightly doomery column

🎯 New Paper Alert! 🎯 I’m thrilled to announce that my latest article, “How do voters seek political information during real-world election campaigns?”, has been published in Party Politics. Access the full paper here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... 👇👇

In March, I wrote an analysis of Corbynite voters (who they are, what they believe, when/why they left Labour under Starmer). Liberal-left eco-populism has a big constituency out there that is ready to be won, if @zackpolanski.bsky.social plays his cards right.

How can the decline of Wenger and Mourinho explain Mamdani beating Cuomo? How was Man United’s 7-1 win over Roma in 2007 like New Labour and Bill Clinton? Why does 1992 back-pass law help show why the Lib Dems did so much better in 2024 compared to 2019?

How can the decline of Wenger and Mourinho explain Mamdani beating Cuomo? How was Man United’s 7-1 win over Roma in 2007 like New Labour and Bill Clinton? Why does 1992 back-pass law help show why the Lib Dems did so much better in 2024 compared to 2019?

🚨NEW DATA 🚨 The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0 You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/... You can find our release note here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...

Erthygl newydd ar anfodlonrwydd cymdeithasol a radicaleiddio yn Lloegr gan @ailsahenderson.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social New piece in the @theconversation.com from the research team at @theunionsurvey.bsky.social about contemporary social and political discontent in #England 👇

I don’t think football in England since 1992 has b en geared to creating a cosseted elite of 3-5 clubs. In fact, unlike every other top tier, the Premiership spreads money wide enough to make a much wider set of clubs competitive. That’s not the main reason for Man I’s malaise but it contributes

This excellent substack from @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social delves into this more open.substack.com/pub/jamesbre...

Liberalising cohort replacement is real but so is ageing population The section of society most likely to be cautious about social change is also growing and turning out in big numbers -> immense power at ballot box. Young (liberal) people are shrinking % of population with very low voter turnout

Even if opinion evenly split, conservative side tends to be more motivated You can have socially liberal electorate, but if social liberals don’t care as much as conservatives do, liberal parties won’t win on that basis It doesn't matter (just) what you think, it also matters what you care about