NEW: After Gorton & Denton, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out with @38degrees.bsky.social on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems. Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵

A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical

A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical

Great to speak with @meganekenyon.bsky.social of @newstatesman1913.bsky.social on location about the result in Gorton and Denton, including the role of party blocs! Clipped my bit below, but you can watch the whole video here (bonus, there is a cat!): youtu.be/dUh_1XuAg-g?...

Eluned Morgan pledges to "end homelessness in Wales by 2034". This will seemingly replace their previous 2021 plan to "end homelessness by 2026".

Both are true. The right are clearly learning to break tactically, but do is the left bloc. I would say a 9pt swing needs to be tested against a more unified left bloc vote - gains for sure, but how much?

Is it: a) "hahaha Reform lost and the Conservatives lost their deposit hahaha" or b) The "right bloc" vote share was up 9pp on 2024 in a very unfriendly constituency and the Conservatives losing their deposit shows the right are learning how to tactically vote

I wrote this back in December about how big of a deal I thought anti-Labour tactical voting would be in 2026 jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/two-voting...

I wrote this back in December about how big of a deal I thought anti-Labour tactical voting would be in 2026 jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/two-voting...

Me in the D.Tel today www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02...

Nick Vivyan, Chris Hanretty (@chanret.bsky.social) and I have a new book out: “Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice”. The core of the book is making the argument that citizens’ views about political issues neither reduce to an ideological orientation nor to a lack of substance. (1/10)

Lib Dem voters sat in middle (surprise!) when it came to attitudes towards economic growth when I looked at this jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...

Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors! Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics: - Daft Punk - Darth Vader - Wicked Witch of the West - Groundskeeper Willie - Wet Leg - Palpatine

Fab, as per!

Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors! Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics: - Daft Punk - Darth Vader - Wicked Witch of the West - Groundskeeper Willie - Wet Leg - Palpatine

YouGov's first voting intention poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election shows clear leads for the SNP, with Reform UK now in second place Constituency vote SNP: 34% (-14 from 2021 election) Ref: 20% (New) Lab: 15% (-7) Con: 10% (-12) LD: 10% (+3) Grn: 9% (+8) yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

“the WRU, an institution that has sat at the heart of Welsh sporting and cultural life for almost 150 years has, rather than creating lasting legacies of Grand Slams and world-class players, become adept at producing apathy and disillusionment” @nyedavies.bsky.social 👇👇 nation.cymru/opinion/rugb...

Please, please, please can you provide at least *some* evidence if you make these arguments: a) Tories lost lots of votes to Lib Dems 2019-24 b) Voters Tories lost to LDs 2015-present are "liberal" c) LD switchers more "open" to return to Tories than RUK switchers d) Right-liberals are big % of pop

Truly shocking and an indicator of why Welsh Labour face a far tougher time than the SNP in May. Voters of *ALL* parties, including *LABOUR* voters think that both Labour governments on Britain are doing a bad job. Brutal times ahead at #Senedd26 in #Wales #Cymru for Eluned Morgan et al 👇👇

I use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...

"Your guilty conscience may force you to vote Democratic, but deep down inside, you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king!" Fantastic write-up from James unpacking the shifting voting patterns of archetypal American voter blocs

Mr. Burns Is Now a Democrat! @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social's latest Substack piece is a brilliant and entertaining way to track 50 years of U.S. political shifts jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/how-would-...

I use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...

Ahead of #Senedd26 @jaclarner.bsky.social joined the BBC's Chris Mason in #Pontypridd to discuss the big shifts in Welsh politics that suggest a century of electoral dominance by the Labour Party is being challenged by Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, who are battling to top the polls in #Wales.

Playing around with the @electionstudies.bsky.social seeing how certain types of people would have voted over the years... I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican

Playing around with the @electionstudies.bsky.social seeing how certain types of people would have voted over the years... I've found a former swing voter who is now solidly Republican

obviously correct!

I really enjoyed reading this article, now available in @bjpols.bsky.social: In recent years in Spain, when the Left governs, voters seem to undergo an ideological realignment and become more right-wing in their policy preferences. doi.org/10.1017/S000...

The unwillingness of the UK govt to do more to help her is bizarre, especially as the implications for Starmer of Labour humiliation in Wales are clearly very serious indeed. But also, who is this messaging meant to be targeting? 15 weeks to polling day… Tick tock Fin

Worth a listen. The FM seems to be trying to use the electoral threat of Plaid (‘seperatists’) to generate leverage for the Welsh govt in dealing with the UK govt so as to ensure that it treats Wales ‘fairly’ in those areas in which it has *already* refused to act (rail, justice, crown estate) 1/

Really good to see @yougov transitioning to using an occupational measure of social class (ns-sec) but it is worth adding that by far the strongest occupational class pattern is in non-voting.

Dr @polpsychjoe.bsky.social speaks with @bbcwales.bsky.social Radio about the first anniversary of Donald Trump's second term as president, his foreign and domestic policies, and domestic approval ratings. 👇

Why would you say this? It's not true!

Really enjoyed appearing on the UCL Uncovering Politics podcast with the brilliant @alanrenwick.bsky.social to discuss my recent paper in Electoral Studies! ucl-uncovering-politics.simplecast.com/episodes/doe...

If really you want to know if the British public actually want to hang the paedos and fund the NHS, you'll find out below 👇👇👇

🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨 New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of: 1) bottom-up public demand 2) elites are neglecting it 3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it tinyurl.com/44ryyybc 🧵

However, 5 policies with lowest MM when disagreeing are all unactivated issues: death penalty, re-join EU (0.22), no immigration for 5 years, assisted dying, and legalised cannabis ∴ carry political risks for established parties because they motivate people to vote against them so strongly

From perspective of outsider/challenger party, these unactivated issues are big electoral opportunities, because they are both: 1) highly motivating to those who agree, so can win their vote 2) absent from mainstream party platforms, creating space to differentiate themselves from competition

Conjoint result for each policy by respondent’s agreement with issue 4 of top 5 issues with highest MM for agreement across both categories are unactivated: no immigration for 5 years, re-join EU, UBI, and assisted dying Voters influenced by issues even if not being actively discussed by elites!

If really you want to know if the British public actually want to hang the paedos and fund the NHS, you'll find out below 👇👇👇

🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨 New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of: 1) bottom-up public demand 2) elites are neglecting it 3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it tinyurl.com/44ryyybc 🧵

You won't see them on this sight, but there are a lot of voters who ultimate want to vote for a right wing party, especially one with a new leader and brand.

By the way this is separate from whether you think AI companies stocks are overvalued. The technology at its present level is going to reshape academic research even if Sam Altman goes bankrupt

If your view of LLM is that it’s all hype and fake I really think you’re failing to engage with the ways that these things are about to change our worlds (with a lot of upside and downside risk)

If you are blaming an AI for your mistake - it's still on you. It's like blaming your car for running somebody over.

Debate about London is obscured by the false binaries both sides put on it. Best on it is @jburnmurdoch.ft.com who shows it is both case violent crime down (an undisputed good) & crimes of disorder (shop lifting, snatching) up which affects/is visible to more but far less devastating consequences

With Ruben Amorim getting sacked, it seem appropriate for me to repost this article I wrote back in August. Why the decline of Manchester United is just like the decline of the British economy 😔 jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/britains-e...

Caerffili - featuring our very own @jaclarner.bsky.social! Blwyddyn newydd dda! www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Two predictions from me for 2026: 1) Anti-Labour tactical voting, which I know sounds obvious but the massive extent to which I think this will happen is still going underpriced imo 2) Tactical voting against Gaza independents, which is a more medium-/long-term thing to look out for in the future