Mexicans are most relaxed about Iran, though Americans and Canadians still lean in favour Mexicans are keenest on Mamdani-style discounts for local residents Canadians are most insistent FIFA foots bill for hosting and most sceptical tournament is worth it if costs overrun

For Americans, the biggest fear is Trump overshadowing the tournament or immigration enforcement controversies Canadians and Mexicans are more focused on prices and costs, particularly that tickets, travel and hotels will simply be too expensive for ordinary fans.

Americans are split on what they want from the World Cup, with no single goal commanding the room. Canadians and Mexicans are clearer, and top of both their lists is boosting the national economy Mexicans also want to show off their culture to the world

When asked how excited they are about the World Cup, soccer fans are excited, scoring around 8/10 on average in all three. Problem for US and Canada is there are not many of them. Among vast majority here who do not follow soccer, excitement drops sharply to 3.7 in US and 2.6 in Canada

Then there is the small matter of whether people actually like the sport. In Mexico, 70% say they regularly watch or play. In the USA and Canada, it is closer to one in five (22% and 24%), trailing the NFL, basketball and ice hockey. They are, for the most part, not soccer countries.

Americans rate the current state of relations with Canada positively and see those with Mexico as roughly neutral. However, Canadians are very gloomy about the state of relations with the USA, and Mexicans lean negative on the same question too. Not the ideal backdrop for the tournament

Open wide for some soccer! At @focaldata.bsky.social we ran a poll of 1,500 people across the three host nations to find out what they make of one another, how excited they are about the World Cup, what they want to get out of hosting it, and what they think about its controversies 🧵

Open wide for some soccer! At @focaldata.bsky.social we ran a poll of 1,500 people across the three host nations to find out what they make of one another, how excited they are about the World Cup, what they want to get out of hosting it, and what they think about its controversies 🧵

A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical

The 2024 UK General Election had a bigger effect on national identity in Britain than Euro 2024 Sound surprising? Well, we found this as part of a paper accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social With the World Cup ⚽️ starting tomorrow, this is the perfect time to read more blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

When I put "rejoin the EU" in a vote-choice conjoint, people who disagreed were more motivated to vote against than people who agreed were to vote for. And those who said "neither agree/disagree" voted against hypothetical candidates who supported rejoin www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Here is Douglas (writing in 1993) on how politician timidity and refusal do things that cause short-term pain but medium- & long-term gain leads to right-wing populism

Absolutely cracking read this James. Nearly stayed on the train beyond my station just to finish it! Also, really pleased all worked out well for that anonymous NHS England staffer 🤣

🚨NEW POST BY ME🚨 What policies you want is only half the story. Equally important, but ignored, is how to implement what you want to do Former NZ finance minister's 10 lessons for anyone serious about GSD and sorting out a country’s problems

🚨NEW POST BY ME🚨 What policies you want is only half the story. Equally important, but ignored, is how to implement what you want to do Former NZ finance minister's 10 lessons for anyone serious about GSD and sorting out a country’s problems

Plaid voters aren't distinctive because they feel strongly Welsh — Reform voters often do too. What separates them is the absence of Britishness. Plaid's coalition is defined less by Welsh pride than by a declining attachment to Britain.

New Swingometer! The Makerfield by-election: High risk, high return. I take a look at the seat on which this Parliament turns open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

This is an exceptional piece on one of the world’s greatest cities and how it recovered. And with a wonderful paragraph on how the council broke the logjam over development.

“Manchester should not be treated as a happy little accident. It’s one of the only serious growth stories Britain has produced in recent decades, and the rest of the country should be studying it much more closely.”

What lessons can be learnt from growth in Greater Manchester ? - economic success can takes decades - it requires regional actors who have a vested interest - extensive devolved powers do help - it didn't start with @andyburnham.bsky.social @channel4news.bsky.social @productivity.bsky.social

Very good and timely piece for Burnham watchers

This piece is getting some deserved plaudits on the timeline - how Manchester has grown in recent decades, plus lots of Simpsons/Stone Roses references (I particularly enjoyed Styal Mill getting a shout out!) My wonder/worry is, with GM councils becoming more fragmented, will the success continue..?

This is really good.

This is interesting and worth reading. It's hard to look over at Manchester and how things have improved from Wales.

If you want to know what "actual existing Manchesterism" is and how it came about 👇👇👇 (Plus every section in it is a Stone Roses lyric, so how can you resist that???)

🚨NEW POST BY ME🚨 Greater Manchester’s growth success is real, but didn't happened by accident. The country should be studying it closely Plus: - Why a city's reputation matters so much - How much credit can Burnham take? (not much) - What does this tell us about a future PM Burnham? (not much)

Great piece. I think in addition to the leadership shown by Stringer, Leese and Bernstein the role played by other GM leaders like Peter Smith was important, and the faith of other LAs in letting Manchester be their CBD and shop window.

Well worth a read.

If you want to know what "actual existing Manchesterism" is and how it came about 👇👇👇 (Plus every section in it is a Stone Roses lyric, so how can you resist that???)

🚨NEW POST BY ME🚨 Greater Manchester’s growth success is real, but didn't happened by accident. The country should be studying it closely Plus: - Why a city's reputation matters so much - How much credit can Burnham take? (not much) - What does this tell us about a future PM Burnham? (not much)

We criticise Labour people for falling for the ecological fallacy a lot, but frankly Lib Dems are just as guilty of it. Yes, the party's seat gains are almost all from the Tories, but only a minority of their vote gains are. There's a reason 24Lab and 24LD voters are very close in views.

They might have been displaced by events, but if you want a weekend read and haven't caught it already, here's my assessment and analysis of the 2026 local elections:

Reform's candidate in Makerfield last time (and recently elected councillor) is a human marginal mean! A lot of conjoints are about to have their external validity tested state.com/united-kingd...

I’m just waiting for the first ‘son of a plumber’ MP…

When someone asks 'is this combination of attributes really realistic?'

Reform's candidate in Makerfield last time (and recently elected councillor) is a human marginal mean! A lot of conjoints are about to have their external validity tested state.com/united-kingd...

It'll be an interesting campaign, that's for sure

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⏰ CALL FOR PAPERS - EPSS PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOP ON PLACE, POLITICS AND EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY ⏰ Submit by Weds 20 May! For all those interested in politics of geographic divides and keen to explore impact potential of their work. More info/submit here: shorturl.at/xS0iS @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social

Nicely done (and very funny).

“You call that statesmanship? I call it an emotional spasm.” My sceptical (but not Eurosceptical) take for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social

This is important for navigating the system. This shows how many votes a party would need to win 1 more seat in every constituency (if nothing else changes). In some areas, within-bloc consolidation would help the bigger parties win another seat. In others, their support is already saturated.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇

Llongyfarchiadau mawr i griw @yougov.co.uk ac i griw @itvcymruwales.bsky.social a @walesgovernance.bsky.social sy'n gweithio hefo nhw. Big up the whole YouGov team and the associated ITV/Wales Governance Centre teams! yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

Excellent stuff, very well done ... a great deal of political analysis & comment entirely fits within these patterns of motivated reasoning.