I found that 2024 Labour voters were the most pro-growth of any party supporters. Not the way to win Green or Reform voters though! The pro-growth and anti-growth coalition is very cross-cutting jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...

Probably the most significant gender gap on a political issue not tied to gender I have ever come across. And not some mere fluke, consistent on our trackers going back years, a genuine point of difference between men and women.

This is not to be snide (well, not just) but a reminder that you can hide in sight in SW1 provided you are a certain kind of man with the right sort of politics or clubbable oeuvre. Worth thinking about if we genuinely want to avoid this happening again

Part of the blind spot on Mandelson will have come about because he was heavily feted within Westminster/parts of the media. This is why many deemed his appointment a ‘masterstroke’, long after most of the key details about him were known. Some convenient recasting of that going on at the moment!

There's still time to submit your ideas for the ANES 2026 Pilot Study. Suggestions of any level of detail are welcome. Ideas should be submitted to ANES as a Word document by 5pm EST on Friday, April 17. Read more about the request: electionstudies.org/anes-announc...

I came across these figures in Dan Lewis' substack (link below) and they make for really grim viewing. Headline GDP growth since 2008 for UK, US, Ger, Fra, Ita & Can is below 2%, not great but ok. Per capita GDP growth though is shockingly bad, aside from the US every country comes in under 1%.

WARNING - contains stealth advertising! Available at all good bookshops, etc. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

On the day of the new energy price cap, and with the Chancellor confirming any energy bill support will be based on household income, our new research with @electrifygb.bsky.social finds that energy bills have now overtaken food as people's biggest cost of living concern.

I spent the day at Welsh Labour's manifesto launch. There is A LOT to say about it. Check it out my analysis: willhaywardwales.substack.com/p/inside-wel...

🚨 NEW REPORT! 🚨 What is the state of the UK academic job market in politics, and what does this mean for the field and #highered? In a new @psaecn.bsky.social report, @lawrencemckay.bsky.social @williamlallen.bsky.social and I find worrying trends in job adverts and HESA data from 2012-25 #PSA26

Rough reading, but great work by @ralphscott.bsky.social, @lawrencemckay.bsky.social, and @williamlallen.bsky.social. Things are not ok out there! www.psa.ac.uk/resources/ac...

Why is use of AI and LLMs so divisive for academics? I think it's because ~half of them vote centre-left and ~half of them vote environmental-left When I did a nat rep survey in the UK, these two had opposite views of economic growth and tech optimism jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...

Why is use of AI and LLMs so divisive for academics? I think it's because ~half of them vote centre-left and ~half of them vote environmental-left When I did a nat rep survey in the UK, these two had opposite views of economic growth and tech optimism jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...

There is something profoundly unserious about demanding the country spends vast sums on reducing its carbon emissions and then calling for a massive fossil fuel subsidy to consumers the moment gas prices rise.

Dr @jaclarner.bsky.social ar Sharp End neithiwr yn trafod pôl piniwn diweddaraf @YouGov / @itvcymruwales.bsky.social Dr Jac Larner on ITV Sharp End last night discussing the latest Barn Cymru poll. Full programme link below 👇 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

Bydd croeso cynnes i chi i ymuno â'r tîm ymchwil o Ganolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru ar gyfer ein digwyddiad Dadansoddiad Cyn-Etholiad. Bydd @richardwynjones.bsky.social & @edgarethpoole.bsky.social yn cyflwyno ein dadansoddiad diweddaraf. #Cymru #Senedd26 www.eventbrite.com/e/1985388211...

You are warmly invited to join the research team from the Wales Governance Centre for our Pre-Election Briefing ahead of the Welsh Parliament election. #Wales #Senedd26 Prof. Richard Wyn Jones and Dr Ed Poole will present our latest analysis on the politics and public attitudes of Wales:

Don't know if they've just been translated badly, but some of these are very weird

In this piece, @nspmartin.bsky.social, @rolandkappe.bsky.social and I summarise our @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, finding that GCSE choices inform political party support into later life

I wrote a few words

“It has long been the case that a lot of Labour supporters have had a very positive view of Plaid Cymru — they just didn’t have a reason to vote for them until now.” - Professor @richardwynjones.bsky.social 👇 www.politico.eu/article/uk-b...

Read this a second time. It's really good

We explain political change using totally different causal models if we approve of outcome of not: 1. Change we like is organic, bottom-up genuine expression of public demand 2. Change we dislike is artificial, top-down result of manipulative elite I’m calling this Motivated Causal Attribution

if you have tenure and nothing you have said or done has made another academic declare a seven-generation vendetta, it's probably wasted on you

The notion of 'real' public preferences obscured by top-down manipulation recalls Isaiah Berlin's notion of positive liberty, where I can coerce a person because their 'higher self' would want it.

Great post. I think the biggest examples of this kind of motivated causal attribution on my side of the aisle is the notion that Russian disinfo changed the outcomes of the 2016 EU Ref/2016 US Presidential election. Disinfo is v. concerning for a variety of reasons, but rarely changes vote choice.

Good article here by @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social, even if I am someone who tends to lean towards bottom-up explanations for most social changes, both those I agree with and those I don't. I'm reminded of that (probably apocryphal) quote from Alexandre Ledru-Rollin, a leader of French Revolution:

TLDR here's how it works. If you don't care about issue, much easier to accept political outcomes are shaped by mixture of forces Once an issue becomes politically or morally important to us, though, that balanced view tends to disappear.

Everyone should read this (esp. if you spend a lot of time on this site).

We explain political change using totally different causal models if we approve of outcome of not: 1. Change we like is organic, bottom-up genuine expression of public demand 2. Change we dislike is artificial, top-down result of manipulative elite I’m calling this Motivated Causal Attribution

NEW: After Gorton & Denton, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out with @38degrees.bsky.social on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems. Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵

A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical

A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical

Great to speak with @meganekenyon.bsky.social of @newstatesman1913.bsky.social on location about the result in Gorton and Denton, including the role of party blocs! Clipped my bit below, but you can watch the whole video here (bonus, there is a cat!): youtu.be/dUh_1XuAg-g?...

Eluned Morgan pledges to "end homelessness in Wales by 2034". This will seemingly replace their previous 2021 plan to "end homelessness by 2026".

Both are true. The right are clearly learning to break tactically, but do is the left bloc. I would say a 9pt swing needs to be tested against a more unified left bloc vote - gains for sure, but how much?

Is it: a) "hahaha Reform lost and the Conservatives lost their deposit hahaha" or b) The "right bloc" vote share was up 9pp on 2024 in a very unfriendly constituency and the Conservatives losing their deposit shows the right are learning how to tactically vote

I wrote this back in December about how big of a deal I thought anti-Labour tactical voting would be in 2026 jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/two-voting...

I wrote this back in December about how big of a deal I thought anti-Labour tactical voting would be in 2026 jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/two-voting...

Me in the D.Tel today www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02...

Nick Vivyan, Chris Hanretty (@chanret.bsky.social) and I have a new book out: “Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice”. The core of the book is making the argument that citizens’ views about political issues neither reduce to an ideological orientation nor to a lack of substance. (1/10)

Lib Dem voters sat in middle (surprise!) when it came to attitudes towards economic growth when I looked at this jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...

Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors! Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics: - Daft Punk - Darth Vader - Wicked Witch of the West - Groundskeeper Willie - Wet Leg - Palpatine

Fab, as per!

Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors! Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics: - Daft Punk - Darth Vader - Wicked Witch of the West - Groundskeeper Willie - Wet Leg - Palpatine

YouGov's first voting intention poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election shows clear leads for the SNP, with Reform UK now in second place Constituency vote SNP: 34% (-14 from 2021 election) Ref: 20% (New) Lab: 15% (-7) Con: 10% (-12) LD: 10% (+3) Grn: 9% (+8) yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

“the WRU, an institution that has sat at the heart of Welsh sporting and cultural life for almost 150 years has, rather than creating lasting legacies of Grand Slams and world-class players, become adept at producing apathy and disillusionment” @nyedavies.bsky.social 👇👇 nation.cymru/opinion/rugb...

Please, please, please can you provide at least *some* evidence if you make these arguments: a) Tories lost lots of votes to Lib Dems 2019-24 b) Voters Tories lost to LDs 2015-present are "liberal" c) LD switchers more "open" to return to Tories than RUK switchers d) Right-liberals are big % of pop

Truly shocking and an indicator of why Welsh Labour face a far tougher time than the SNP in May. Voters of *ALL* parties, including *LABOUR* voters think that both Labour governments on Britain are doing a bad job. Brutal times ahead at #Senedd26 in #Wales #Cymru for Eluned Morgan et al 👇👇