We are pleased to share that the report from our 2026 Local Elections event is now available The report brings together key insights and discussion points from the event, focusing on the evolving dynamics of local elections and their broader implications See the report here: poal.co.uk/events/

Ymunwch â @jaclarner.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar gyfer ein dadansoddiad ôl-etholiad Senedd Cymru 2026 / Join us for our online event to examine what happened in the 2026 Welsh national election. Dolen cofrestru yma / Registration link here 👇 www.eventbrite.com/e/1990480045...

Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

Great work from James on how Wales’ new electoral system performed (Even if he has cut off Monmouthshire….)

Fascinating stuff. Only thing I'd add is that ability of list to compensate for disproportionality in const depends on limited split ticket voting. Prelim SES data suggest *split tickets at an all time high* this election, thus further weakening Lab and Con chances esp Quebec proposed a model of ...

Labour down 30 points in two constituencies declared so far @itvcymruwales.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk MRP looking pretty good at the moment across board on vote shares

Record turnout in Wales with Senedd & Westminster turnout converging. Unthinkable a few years ago but still nearly half of registered voters staying home Competitiveness always helps, as well as the growing understanding that decisions Welsh Government takes has an impact on day-to-day lives

Some great stuff here from our PhD student @willdv2002.bsky.social what voters do and don’t know about voting in Senedd 2026 election

Notable that much of the variation in Welsh polling has disappeared in the final days of the campaign. The standard deviation in Plaid Cymru estimates across firms fell from 4.3 to 1.8 percentage points since autumn; for Labour, from 5.6 to 2.3 Most convergence happening in last 10 days (1/2)

The headline findings are worth your time, but Dan’s contribution here is a thoughtful history of how national identity has (and has not) been measured in British surveys over time

Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇

Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

In just 2,000 words, @richardhywelking.bsky.social has produced a masterful guide through the last 27 years of Labour in Wales. Essential reading before next Thursday when the Labour century may come to an end www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party PC: 43 (+19 from 2021*) Ref: 30 (+30) Lab: 12 (-32) Grn: 10 (+10) Con: 1 (-25) LD: 0 (-2) *notional results had the last election been conducted on the new system based on data from Dr Jac Larner

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

This loss of talent will have long term consequences for our national research base. Government and funders should do something about it.

SES scoop out @scotvoting.bsky.social

Fantastic stuff, as ever, from Nye on the decline of two cornerstones of Welsh identity over the last century: Rugby and the Labour Party

Ahead of #Senedd26 @jaclarner.bsky.social joined the BBC's Chris Mason in #Pontypridd to discuss the big shifts in Welsh politics that suggest a century of electoral dominance by the Labour Party is being challenged by Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, who are battling to top the polls in #Wales.

From November 2025 - Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB - @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social #OpenAccess

For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...

New 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 data paints picture of consolidation within two blocs: a Welsh-identifying/progressive bloc (with Plaid as largest party) and a British-identifying/conservative bloc (with Reform as largest). Adds to evidence that 2026 is shaping up to be 2-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK 🧵

There's not much political & social science can point to and say 'we know almost certainly that this will happen', but accommodating the far-right and subsequently losing is one of them.

NEWYDD - Adroddiad gan @robdjones.bsky.social yn dadansoddi'r data diweddaraf ar garchardai a charchariad yng Nghymru 👇 NEW - Report from Dr Robert Jones analyses the latest data on prisons and imprisonment in Wales 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

Almost a decade on, Wales' fiscal reforms deliver nearly £1 Billion windfall but fall short on empowering the Senedd Major new report calls for tripling of borrowing powers and full income tax control as Fiscal Framework reforms deliver unprecedented budget boost:👇 www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/asset...

This is shockingly uninformed about how polling works

Two unpopular governments at both ends of the M4 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Ahead of the expected proscription of Palestine Action - the first time a protest group has been legally redefined as terrorist - I went through the Hansard of the 2000 Act they're being banned under. Turns out MPs were assured the law wouldn't be applied this way. Thread 🧵🔽

Does anybody have experience of recontacting Prolific participants after a study to measure attitude change over time? Struggling to find information on feasibility of this

For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇

Our nowcast projection for the NI Assembly ‘27: SF — 28 Seats DUP — 21 Seats AP — 16 Seats UUP — 9 Seats SDLP — 9 Seats TUV — 7 Seats From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/

Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join @scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats. 🧵 on some of what it can do below: jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...

New @itvcymruwales.bsky.social poll shows substantial shift in Welsh political landscape. Plaid Cymru leads with 30%, Reform UK at 25%, Labour at 18% - their lowest since devolution- & Conservatives on 13% - one of their poorest Welsh polling performances in 2 decades. 🧵 www.itv.com/news/wales/2...

The @scotvoting.bsky.social Annual Lecture, 'The Unstable Vote' by @profjanegreen.bsky.social is being held in Edinburgh on Monday 12th May! Register below 👇

💻 NEW DATA The Scottish political landscape has evolved greatly in recent months and a lot has been said about support for @reformukscotland.bsky.social with little available analysis. @frasmcm.bsky.social and @ailsahenderson.bsky.social took a look at the party's support on our blog t.ly/PjCxX

@elizabethjevans.bsky.social and I had the opportunity to talk to @alanrenwick.bsky.social about our research and our book Disability and Political Representation on the UCL Uncovering Politics Podcast. Thanks for hosting us!

New fun pub - The Authentic A**hole (particularly proud of getting title accepted) ✅ Politicians viewed as authentic when they stick to their positions despite pressure ✅ True even when voters disagree with those positions ✅ Authenticity translates to electoral advantage tinyurl.com/25us7y7z

Two Weeks In The Death Spiral Of Cardiff University, by an anonymous academic. This is truly shocking read. The Cardiff executive board should hang their heads in shame. voice.cymru/two-weeks-in...

Sut mae siarad Cymraeg yn effeithio ar eich safbwyntiau gwleidyddol? How does speaking Welsh affect your political views? Insights from Welsh Election Study below! 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/ert...

I have a new article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🎉 It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters Link👇 & results 🧵

Peak example of utter absurdity of university management speak. Using language of ‘future generations’, ‘co-creation’ and ‘academic synergies’ in a ‘slide deck’ announcing 400 academic job losses at our institution 👌

Took me 5 minutes to realise why this is wrong

This is very sad. An outstanding university that gave me a lot and means a lot to the city. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 "Does disability affect support for political parties?" Just published in Electoral Studies, co-authored with Melanie Jones. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 🧵 👇

Rydym yn dathlu 125 o ddysgu Gwleidyddiaeth ym Mhrifysgol Caerdydd. Dyma bapur arholiad cynnar o 1904… Mae cwestiwn 9 yn *anfarwol*! —— We’re celebrating 125 years of teaching Politics at Cardiff Uni. Here’s an early exam paper from 1904… You’re going to absolutely *love* question 9!