YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party PC: 43 (+19 from 2021*) Ref: 30 (+30) Lab: 12 (-32) Grn: 10 (+10) Con: 1 (-25) LD: 0 (-2) *notional results had the last election been conducted on the new system based on data from Dr Jac Larner

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

This loss of talent will have long term consequences for our national research base. Government and funders should do something about it.

SES scoop out @scotvoting.bsky.social

Fantastic stuff, as ever, from Nye on the decline of two cornerstones of Welsh identity over the last century: Rugby and the Labour Party

Ahead of #Senedd26 @jaclarner.bsky.social joined the BBC's Chris Mason in #Pontypridd to discuss the big shifts in Welsh politics that suggest a century of electoral dominance by the Labour Party is being challenged by Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, who are battling to top the polls in #Wales.

From November 2025 - Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB - @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social #OpenAccess

For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...

New 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 data paints picture of consolidation within two blocs: a Welsh-identifying/progressive bloc (with Plaid as largest party) and a British-identifying/conservative bloc (with Reform as largest). Adds to evidence that 2026 is shaping up to be 2-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK 🧵

There's not much political & social science can point to and say 'we know almost certainly that this will happen', but accommodating the far-right and subsequently losing is one of them.

NEWYDD - Adroddiad gan @robdjones.bsky.social yn dadansoddi'r data diweddaraf ar garchardai a charchariad yng Nghymru 👇 NEW - Report from Dr Robert Jones analyses the latest data on prisons and imprisonment in Wales 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

Almost a decade on, Wales' fiscal reforms deliver nearly £1 Billion windfall but fall short on empowering the Senedd Major new report calls for tripling of borrowing powers and full income tax control as Fiscal Framework reforms deliver unprecedented budget boost:👇 www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/asset...

This is shockingly uninformed about how polling works

Two unpopular governments at both ends of the M4 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Ahead of the expected proscription of Palestine Action - the first time a protest group has been legally redefined as terrorist - I went through the Hansard of the 2000 Act they're being banned under. Turns out MPs were assured the law wouldn't be applied this way. Thread 🧵🔽

Does anybody have experience of recontacting Prolific participants after a study to measure attitude change over time? Struggling to find information on feasibility of this

For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇

Our nowcast projection for the NI Assembly ‘27: SF — 28 Seats DUP — 21 Seats AP — 16 Seats UUP — 9 Seats SDLP — 9 Seats TUV — 7 Seats From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/

Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join @scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats. 🧵 on some of what it can do below: jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...

New @itvcymruwales.bsky.social poll shows substantial shift in Welsh political landscape. Plaid Cymru leads with 30%, Reform UK at 25%, Labour at 18% - their lowest since devolution- & Conservatives on 13% - one of their poorest Welsh polling performances in 2 decades. 🧵 www.itv.com/news/wales/2...

The @scotvoting.bsky.social Annual Lecture, 'The Unstable Vote' by @profjanegreen.bsky.social is being held in Edinburgh on Monday 12th May! Register below 👇

💻 NEW DATA The Scottish political landscape has evolved greatly in recent months and a lot has been said about support for @reformukscotland.bsky.social with little available analysis. @frasmcm.bsky.social and @ailsahenderson.bsky.social took a look at the party's support on our blog t.ly/PjCxX

@elizabethjevans.bsky.social and I had the opportunity to talk to @alanrenwick.bsky.social about our research and our book Disability and Political Representation on the UCL Uncovering Politics Podcast. Thanks for hosting us!

New fun pub - The Authentic A**hole (particularly proud of getting title accepted) ✅ Politicians viewed as authentic when they stick to their positions despite pressure ✅ True even when voters disagree with those positions ✅ Authenticity translates to electoral advantage tinyurl.com/25us7y7z

Two Weeks In The Death Spiral Of Cardiff University, by an anonymous academic. This is truly shocking read. The Cardiff executive board should hang their heads in shame. voice.cymru/two-weeks-in...

Sut mae siarad Cymraeg yn effeithio ar eich safbwyntiau gwleidyddol? How does speaking Welsh affect your political views? Insights from Welsh Election Study below! 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/cymrufyw/ert...

I have a new article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🎉 It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters Link👇 & results 🧵

Peak example of utter absurdity of university management speak. Using language of ‘future generations’, ‘co-creation’ and ‘academic synergies’ in a ‘slide deck’ announcing 400 academic job losses at our institution 👌

Took me 5 minutes to realise why this is wrong

This is very sad. An outstanding university that gave me a lot and means a lot to the city. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 "Does disability affect support for political parties?" Just published in Electoral Studies, co-authored with Melanie Jones. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 🧵 👇

Rydym yn dathlu 125 o ddysgu Gwleidyddiaeth ym Mhrifysgol Caerdydd. Dyma bapur arholiad cynnar o 1904… Mae cwestiwn 9 yn *anfarwol*! —— We’re celebrating 125 years of teaching Politics at Cardiff Uni. Here’s an early exam paper from 1904… You’re going to absolutely *love* question 9!

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿UK ELECTION 2024 BRIEFING VIDEO 📼 The video of the Wales Election Study briefing on the 2024 UK General Election is now available on the @cardiffuni.bsky.social YouTube Channel! @jaclarner.bsky.social and @richardwynjones.bsky.social present new data and analysis from Wales 👇🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 youtu.be/7CMXfpiWfso

Interested in Scottish voting data? Follow Scottish Election Study team at account below Or individually: @ailsahenderson.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social @jaclarner.bsky.social @chanret.bsky.social @martamiori.bsky.social (Fraser's arriving soon)

Cracking presentation by @jaclarner.bsky.social of Wales Governance Centre today about the UK General Election 2024 in Wales. Pretty shocking stuff about intergenerational resentment between parties and the effect of the mortality rate on party support 😬 #Wales #Cymru

The election briefing everyone is waiting for this week! Looking forward to revealing some of our new analysis

In preparing for the job market I recently wrote a draft syllabus for a proposed course on the Politics of Disability. Sharing it here in case its of interest to others - would love to hear any feedback/suggestions and hope it helps! www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/srq5e...

New #ge24 vote compass: Find which party you are closest to on policies Tailored for UK's diverse politics & lets you prioritise issues important to you Has been several months work with other academics - try it out below! votecompass.uk

New paper (🎉) on disability and welfare attitudes with @joshuathorp.bsky.social now online at Political Psychology. We use survey experiments to better understand support for government assistance for disabled people, and uncover evidence of substantial conditionality. 🔗 below! polisky polipsy

Reminder the deadline for submissions is this Friday!

Doing work on political psychology? 🧠🗳️ Submissions are open for 6th annual UK Political Psychology conference, taking place 20-21 June at @sotonpolitics.bsky.social Deadline for proposals is 22 March, with full details on the link below. www.psa.ac.uk/specialist-g... polpsy polpsysky

Delighted to learn that my paper with @jaclarner.bsky.social on disability and welfare attitudes in the UK is forthcoming at Political Psychology! This is my first publication and I'm thrilled its found such a great home. Preprint: osf.io/mtb4n/ polisky behaviorsky

Hi Polisky friends - I'm on the job market! I am a PhD candidate in American politics at the University of Michigan, working on political psych/behavior in minority groups. My dissertation focuses on disability as a dimension of political identity and cohesion. joshthorp.com PSJMinfo behavioursky