Yesterday's news about #votesat16 seems as good a reason as any to shamelessly plug an old article by Raynee Gutting and myself. We tested the effect on public support of framing votes at 16 as a right or a change, with interesting results: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...

With President Donald John Trump announcing the dates for his upcoming trip to #Scotland, we at @scotvoting.bsky.social look at how popular #POTUS is in Scotland. Turns out DJT might find the Scottish summer to be a bit chilly, and that isn't just the weather!

Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join @scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...

Looking for something to do at 17:30 Friday afternoon at the @scottishlabour.bsky.social conference? @scotvoting.bsky.social Scottish Election Study team will be holding a fringe event looking at our data on Scottish Labour Voters (past & future). W/ @ailsahenderson.bsky.social & Fraser McMillan

The next Stevenson Trust lecture features Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social) on how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy. 🌎 Taking place on 4 March and open to all. Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt

📢Join us for the next Stevenson Trust lecture with Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social). They will explore how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy over the next 2-3 years. Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt.

We are very excited to be hosting this event @uofglasgow.bsky.social on 10 Feb, 6pm, recognising 25 years of achievements by the Scottish Youth Parliament @officialsyp.bsky.social Pls join us - free & open to all members of the public, both young and not-so-young Register here: lnkd.in/e-9aQxaV

This is an interesting study on the relationship between economic inequality and democratic erosion: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Overall, certainly something worth pondering.

A fascinating discussion from @cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt from tonight's Stevenson Trust lecture. They discussed Trumps campaign and what the next four years of his presidency may mean for the US and the rest of the world

The next Stevenson Trust Lecture takes place this Wednesday from 6- 7:30 on the US Election. @cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt will discuss Trump's Campaign and what can be expected over the next 4 years. Don't miss out register here: tinyurl.com/mr2rvsrp.

Interested in Scottish voting data? Follow Scottish Election Study team at account below Or individually: @ailsahenderson.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social @jaclarner.bsky.social @chanret.bsky.social @martamiori.bsky.social (Fraser's arriving soon)

has anyone told RFKJr where his soon-to-be boss prefers to dine? (and cook french fries)

OPINION TODAY Trump's new administration and the election's aftermath | What Trump supporters believe and expect | How Resilient Is the Emerging Trump Coalition? | Drop in Death Penalty Support Led by Younger Generations | The 2026 race for CA governor ... & more: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/241114

we know that partisanship now drives economic and social policy perceptions in the US - but this graph is striking. I just told a class that right after Trump's inauguration we'd see a shift in economic evaluations... it only took days after the election! graph frm www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/b...

Last week at my @UofGlasgow @StevensonTrust lecture on the US POTUS election I said/joked I was waiting for a news report saying that the Amish in PA were going to be the crucial voting group in the state. #nailedit #LancasterPA #youknowyouarefromLancasterwhen

Interesting that even with all the Trump supporting “whales” who have thrown money into the various “election markets”, Trump has dropped 10 pts in Polymarket in this past week

“A republic, if you can keep it.” Benjamin Franklin’s response to the question, “Well Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” on the day the Constitutional Convention delegates signed their draft.

Counties already denying certification of elections across the US. THIS is rather concerning and points to the US election system ending up in uncharted territory. #electiondenialism #USelection2024 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

Pls join us on 29 Oct, 6PM in @uofglasow KELVIN GALLERY (in the Gilbert Scott Bldg) for discussion of the upcoming US Elections with @UofGSPS's @cjcarman.bsky.social. What are polls telling us? What can we expect in the last week before the election? register: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-us-pre...

As what constitutes “fascism” seems to be a topic of conversation at the moment, let’s look at the definition of the term in the Oxford Dictionary of Politics (2009, 3rd ed pg193). #fascist #fascism #polisci #2024

The long and short of all this is that elevated indy support sustained the SNP long after 2014, powering them to a series of victories at all levels of government. But in the last couple of years their grip on pro-indy voters has loosened significantly.

We also know it changed people's constitutional preferences, with young people in particular much more supportive than before - although they were always the group most favourably disposed to "devo max". The binary choice presented in 2014 forced people to pick a side.

It similarly altered how people felt about Scotland, believing it had become a more engaged political space. Yes voters were initially more convinced of this, but No voters soon changed their minds. This shows the % of voters saying the indyref made Scotland more involved ✍️

We also know that the referendum changed how people engaged with politics. A lot of people joined the pro-indy parties after the referendum. At peak, one in 24 Scots belonged to a political party vs one in 125 in the UK as a whole 🪧⬇️

Meanwhile, changes in Conservative support were more gradual. This graph shows the share of Labour voters switching to the Conservatives at each general election in the 2010s, with the party's effort to become the voice of No supporters paying off north of the border in 2017 🔵

The referendum pushed voters out to the poles of the constitutional debate. This outstanding graph by @jaclarner.bsky.social shows this happened immediately following the indyref vote, with voters moving from Labour to SNP en masse 😯

We also saw greater consistency between Westminster and Holyrood preferences, moving away from patterns early on in the devolution era. This graph shows differences in parties' constituency vote shares at Westminster and Holyrood elections.

We know the referendum changed voting behaviour with... Firstly, greater consistency between independence preferences and party preferences 🗳️🤝 2010 > 2015 general election vote choice among Yes voters on the left, No voters on the right.

To mark ten years since the independence referendum we're collating some nice SES data and launching our account Over Here! Hello Bluesky 🦋 Did the indyref change Scotland? As you might expect from the title of our book based on SES and Scottish Referendum Study data, the answer is yes! But how?

Is there a candidate Americans (sort of) like? Harris (just barely) tips into net positive approval rating while Trump remains flat in the negative territory #US2024 #POTUSelection www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

10 years following the #Scotland #IndyRef instead of looking to the somewhat revisionist accounts, why not have a look at clear academic analysis of The Referendum that Changed a Nation 2014-2019 from the Scottish Election Team www.amazon.co.uk/Referendum-t...

*checks calendar* yes, it IS still AUGUST… and the grocery store has 2024 Advent Calendars on sale!!! WTF!!! #christmastooearly #itisonlyaugust #santastillneedshisrest #theelvesarestillmakingtgetoys

People ask why Trump is running again… here is just one potential reason

This has received less attention than it should, because the overall result was in line with expectations. But in a closer contest an error of this scale would be enough to deliver a surprise outcome (as it did in 1992 & 2015) - something to remember if polls are narrower ahead of the next election

Oft. So much captured in these graphs from @data.ft.com: (1) becoming a convicted felon has worked out pretty well for Trump fundraising; & (2) even BEFORE the debate disaster Biden was falling behind on fundraising. Will be interesting/scary to see July totals when the come out…

Things that occur to me when I otherwise should be marking exams: what is the probability that any two individual crisps in a bag of crisps came from the same potato? #academiclife #exammarking

"too many administrative functions can make college institutionally incoherent" www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

Contributed a few thoughts on #Scotland ‘s lay of the political landscape with the confirmation of our new #FirstMinister. It is going to be an interesting couple of years in #ScottishPolitics ! www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...

Sunset from the building formerly known as the Adam Smith Building at University of Glasgow

My friends who study authoritarianism will know better than me, but isn’t a hallmark changing the rules of the game to make sure you win?

Funded PhD studentship to work on multi-level voting in Scotland using #ScottishElectionStudy data to work with @ailsahenderson.bsky.social and me - pls encourage keen young scholars to apply and help build our pool of folks working on #ScottishPolitics www.sgsss.ac.uk/studentship/...

Welcome to the EPOP Bluesky account! Follow us to keep up-to-date with our latest news and notices. To receive our regular newsletter, sign-up to our mailing list: jiscmail.ac.uk/EPOP

Bright cold morning in Glasgow… topped off with a wee hit on Radio 4 Today programme discussing Scottish politics with Nick Robinson

Americans’ Trust in Scientists, Positive Views of Science Continue to Decline (@pewresearch.org) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/231115

Happiness is remembering that you did actually deliver that lecture topic previously AND you quickly find the slides AND it was only 3 years ago you delivered it, so you just need to update the slides a wee bit. (Perhaps the memory going, however, isn’t all that great. But I’ll just blame lockdown

Rutherglen and Hamilton West (UK Parliament) By-Election (vs 2019): Lab: 17845 (58.6%, +24.1) SNP: 8399 (27.6%, -16.6) Con: 1192 (3.9%, -11.1) LD: 895 (2.9%, -2.3) Grn: 601 (2%, new) RUK: 403 (1.3%, new) Family: 319 (1%, new) Others (<1%): 823 (2.7%, new) Labour elected.

David Barker and I have years of survey evidence to show Republican lack of support for compromise extends to pre-Trump years so, sadly, this isn’t a surprise. Now… if we could only get the book finished (yes, I am the laggard - not David!)

Enjoyed having a chance to catch-up a bit with a former student today… who just so happens to be Scotland’s First Minister (in #Inveraray #Argyll for the innovative Travelling Cabinet meeting - positive public engagement from the Scottish Government)

Nice to have #Scotland First Minister ⁦‪@HumzaYousaf‬⁩ to mention #LochFyne Bard #EwanMacColl at the opening of the ⁦‪@scotgov‬⁩ Travelling Cabinet in #Inveraray #ArgyllandBute - here are some photos of the monument to Ewan MacColl

Today in #Inveraray #ArgyllandBute the Scottish Government’s Travelling Cabinet.