I think it's a couple of things 🧵: 1) I see no reason to believe that Savanta has fixed the industry-wide issues with polling ethnic minorities* and that this is probably inflating Labour's vote share in this poll a bit *Basically getting too many mixed-race voters and too many British Indians

No offence to the lad, but it's absurd seeing a wee guy in nothing but a t-shirt and thin Under Armour overshirt on BBC News calling the weather at Dalwhinnie "extreme". Mate, it's just snowing.

Our road just got salted by the gritter known as Icetalavista Baby #blessed

The Celtic board quietly loading an old Football Manager save

Where the fuck did these "stats" come from?

Yes, it is. At least as far as voters' evaluations of ScotLab go.

London's worth watching most in May. Labour collapses in Scotland and Wales are priced in, but heavy defeats in London both a) look likely, and b) will come as more of a shock to the body politic in general. All eyes on results in the constituencies of London MPs like Starmer and Streeting.

Grim nights in Wales and Scotland are already baked into Labour thinking about the May locals Less discussed, however, @matildamartin.bsky.social & @noahvickers.bsky.social report, is things getting ugly in London, where Polanski eyes gains "The whole of the Olympic Park belongs to the Greens"

It made sense for McConnell to accede to debates with Salmond as Labour were trailing the SNP and the debates created the possibility of boosting their support. Whereas the SNP currently has a double-digit lead and Labour are polling in third place.

There's nothing worse than "emergency" podcasts making predictions. They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.

There's nothing worse than "emergency" podcasts making predictions. They're the podcast version of uninformed hot takes looking for clicks, making the participants look like idiots. The latest round of such podcasts about Venezuela, recorded *before* Trump spoke, are the case in point.

Trying to convert the spare room into a nursery and discovering the sheer volume of amateur-hour DIY done by the previous owners...

By-Election Preview: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) 22nd of January 2026 Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour's current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.

"We need to support our strongman, authoritarian leader's illegal foreign interventions or we'll look weak" Are you fucking kidding me? You coward.

The error was thinking of Trump as doctrinal in the first place. He has a worldview, sure - a decidedly Thucydidean one that you could have identified from his business practices over decades, nevermind his first term - but it's one that completely contradicts the "doctrine" he espoused to win votes

Yes, our partnership with the US *is* the most important relationship we have. Because we've allowed ourselves to become dependent on an unreliable and sometimes hostile foreign state. The answer to that isn't unyielding Atlanticism, it's working with our actual allies to unravel that dependence.

Even assuming a US-friendly regime is installed & gives up Venezuelan to US companies, without a war followed by an insurgency that would make FDI unattractive (unlikely)... It would take many years to install the infrastructure needed to extract & ship a significant amount of oil to the US.

THREAD: I'll fact-check all the viral misinformation about the US military operation in Venezuela in this thread This image, purporting to show the US military arresting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, is AI-generated. According to Google's SynthID detector, it was created using Google AI.

1/10 🧵 The U.S. just captured a sitting head of state in a military operation—and Trump says the U.S. will "run" Venezuela “for now.” Whatever you think of Maduro, this is the most consequential unilateral move in the hemisphere since Panama (1989).

If Mexico, who border the mad colossus that is the United States, can unequivocally condemn this as an action of aggression then the EU, sheltered by the Atlantic, can do the same and not offer this subservient drivel.

Not exactly a surprise, the Post endorsed the invasion of Iraq before offering a sort-of mea culpa four years later...

Of course international diplomacy is complex and nuanced, and that becomes more complex when it is a close ally, but Trump saying US has effectively just taken control of a sovereign nation and UN planning a censure motion does mean Starmer needs to be firmer than shrugging and saying "wait and see"

The notion that the Venezuelan military, myriad paramilitaries loyal to the Maduro regime, and the remainder of the Venezuelan political regime won't resist this with force is fanciful at best. If Trump's ambitions, as laid out here, are to be realised it'll require a large commitment of US forces.

I'm hardly original in saying this, but a lot of people are going to try to make this about whether Maduro being gone is good or bad as such, rather than the blatant violation of international and US law in a destabilizing act of aggression. Don't fall for it.

Think twice about what? Behaving in exactly the same way in their own self-defined spheres of influence? Farage folding himself into a pretzel trying to avoid justifying Trump's actions (b/c unpopular with UK voters) without condemning them (b/c he benefits from the transnational far-right).

it's impossible to overstate the risible stupidity of the sentence 'Trump's attitude to American military power is almost indistinguishable from that of, say, Jeremy Corbyn'

Trump's National Security Strategy articulates a vision of interference in European politics to promote the far-right, break the EU, and carve up the continent with Russia. From an admin now happy to bomb civilian population centres and kidnap foreign heads of state in undeclared, illegal wars.

A defining moment for Europe. If it endorses/fails to condemn this flagrant breach of international law, it will have surrendered its core justification for opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Kidnapping the leader of a foreign state without any declaration of war and announcing it via social media is full-on rogue state stuff. From the world’s number one superpower.

The US public supported most, if not all major US military interventions - at the moment of intervention - since WWII, including Vietnam and invading Iraq. If, as suspected, the Trump admin has launched attacks on Caracas, this would be the first such intervention they overwhelmingly opposed.

Thanks so much to everyone who has made a donation to the SP26 crowdfunder, now three-quarters of the way to the goal! If you're already donating regularly via Liberapay, I've been adding those to the total as they come in, including a very generous one to start the New Year. 😱 gofund.me/092ede4a3

After some upgrades to our system our first projection of the year for May's Scottish Parliamentary elections is: SNP 🎗️ — 62 Lab 🌹 — 18 Con 🌳 — 11 GP 🌱 — 11 LD 🐤 — 10 Ref ➡️ — 17 Alba 🔵 — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

All the devolved governments run by secessionist parties. Labour's worst results in Scotland and Wales in over a century. Nigel Farage and Reform UK knocking at the door to No 10 Is Starmer about to preside over the biggest political collapse since Asquith? My latest for @heraldscotland.bsky.social

So, actual end of year poll tracker, given the poll released today. SNP projected one short of a majority. Seats (+/- 2021): SNP: 64 (-) Ref: 19 (+19) Lab: 17 (-5) Grn: 13 (+5) Con: 9 (-22) LD: 7 (+3) Alba: 0 (-) 21 marginals: 17 SNP, 3 Labour, 1 Conservative. 1/3

Reminder that, as much as I (and you) dislike and disagree with Theresa May, she's a serious politician in away that Kemi et al are not.

With Holyrood elections on the horizon, I've updated my ScotPol starter pack to include a broader range of analysts in addition to think-tankers and academics. If you (or a colleague) should be in this starter pack but aren't, please let me know!

Did Armando Iannucci write this as a The Thick Of It premise?

💯 I'm *the* natural supporter of a replacement level Labour government (or any SocDem govt). But with few exceptions, like lifting the two child cap, everything this Labour government has done has been designed to alienate me. So I'm writing columns about why Starmer will be out of No 10 in a year

This is exactly it, and a polite way of saying what a lot of people are saying more bluntly in response to the article. It’s a losing strategy and they should have realised that a long time ago.

I think the key to answering this question is understanding Starmer/Reeves unpopularity among natural allies. A majority of Laboir voters disapprove of him, as do large majorities of LD/Green voters. Hostility from natural political opponents is normal. Hostility from natural supporters is not.

And the reasons for that are not hard to find - Starmer’s unpopularity among left-liberals is the logical, arguably even intended consequence of 18 months of comms and policy which alienates and angers left-liberals while winning over no one on right. This is the cake his team have baked themselves.

So here's a third attempt - Lab vote holds up at constituency level, given they are main unionist alternative to SNP in most seats, and Lab/LD do better, and Greens a bit worse, than current polling suggests on the lists: SNP 56 Ref 21 Lab 16 LD 15 Grn 11 Con 10

Here's what I get applying such assumptions with a broad brush: SNP 60 Grn 24 Ref 20 Con 10 Lab 8 LD 7 Little impact on SNP, Ref and Con numbers, but Grn jumps a lot and Lab drop a lot. *But* I think Scottish Greens' support for independence may weaken Lab to Grn flows among unionists.

I remember going to clients in late 2021, presenting Johnson's net approvals, and arguing that he was finished as PM and they should prepare for a transition to another PM. Same could've been argued about Truss and Sunak. And now of Starmer.

Dylan nails the sources of Starmer's unpopularity here. He's also right to point out that the scale of Starmer's unpopularity is ultimately down to the large, right-leaning chunk of voters who always disliked him. But the "what's changed" is that Labour voters now agree with them:

I feel answering 'why is Starmer so unpopular' has to start with 'why would he be'? In terms of qualities voters like in politicians (charisma, direction, relatability, not weak), few are found in him, and the ones he did once have (e.g., perceived competence) have been undermined in office.

Savage but fair stuff, to which I'd add one tiny further dig at the last remaining Starmer fans: even if "government isn't about polling well all term!" wasn't obvious cope, the problem is *this government* is very clearly chasing poll numbers and falling flat on its face regardless!

With Holyrood elections on the horizon, I've updated my ScotPol starter pack to include a broader range of analysts in addition to think-tankers and academics. If you (or a colleague) should be in this starter pack but aren't, please let me know!