I have long since run out of patience for Labour MPs decrying hate against the LGBT+ community by pointing fingers everywhere but their government. Reform are not the reason trans kids are dying without access to healthcare. Reform are not the reason trans people are being excluded and segregated.

The current system is a more proportional voting system, but given the structure of party support in Wales and the specific details of the operation of the new electoral system, the incentives for tactical voting are still very much in place ✍️ Richard Wyn Jones

NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇

📺🗳️ Our new research at the Cardiff School of Journalism, Media and Culture shows the first week of Senedd election coverage was widely covered by news media, but with limited scrutiny of what parties were claiming in their manifestos and campaign events theconversation.com/limited-scru...

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A Reform UK office in Caerphilly has been vandalised for the second time in five months as the Senedd election approaches

Voters in Wales failed by inaccurate UK media reports on devolved issues, study finds

"a term popularized by Palantir" we are cooked

Matt Goodwin: As Thomas Paine so eloquently wrote, "to allow postal voting is to leave our democracy unstamped. Would you like me to provide some additional quotations? Say 'yes' and I will generate five more quotes in the style of great historical figures."

Greater Manchester Police has found "no evidence of any intent to influence or refrain any person from voting" in the Gorton and Denton by-election, after Reform made a complaint over alleged "family voting" The investigation looked at potential offences under the Representation of the People Act

As one could expect, the release of the Reform UK list yesterday has unveiled a whole host of people with interesting views in the party... In my constituency, I've already identified a candidate that thinks dog dewormer can cure cancer and COVID... 😳

this explains everything

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

You are warmly invited to join the research team from the Wales Governance Centre for our Pre-Election Briefing ahead of the Welsh Parliament election. #Wales #Senedd26 Prof. Richard Wyn Jones and Dr Ed Poole will present our latest analysis on the politics and public attitudes of Wales:

Many have flagged the problems of discrimination in AI for a number of yrs. A real world example in a Manchester school thanks to Index on censorship. Humans who design these systems have responsibility & should be held to account, as should those who crudely implement inane, discriminatory AI

🚨🚨 1 BILLION identity records exposed in ID verification data leak, INCLUDING +203 MILLION American records. Governments forcing ID verification to access lawful speech creates data honeypots, vulnerabilities cybersecurity experts have repeatedly warned against. The threat is NOT hypothetical.

Jürgen Habermas (1929-2026) was one of the most significant social philosophers of the 20th century. We have a special collection on our website with articles showing the depth and breadth of his influence across several generations of scholarship. ➡️ buff.ly/1afXiJI

The Senedd elections in May will be running on a new voting system based on PR. When I am door knocking I keep talking to people who have no awareness of this fact. They are planning their vote as if it were FPTP. They don't realise there will be no candidate names on the ballot. >

I'd heard about the trees in Uganda line in previous Reform/Conservative rhetoric, but where the hell did Sam Rowlands get the idea tonight of them being gender-neutral trees?! Did I miss the memo??

Imagine showing this tweet to someone in like 1994

First Six Nations win since 2023! What a first half too! 😍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Breaking: the DOGE deposition videos have been taken off YouTube. On Friday the government asked a judge to intervene, said the videos could cause reputational damage, death threats. Judge agreed, ordered them removed: www.404media.co/doge-deposit...

Walking away from Omelas like

Politics experts at a Welsh university have launched a website that brings the excitement of fantasy sports to political forecasting, offering an interactive way to engage with the 2026 Senedd election

We've published the 2025 local elections handbook in collaboration with the University of Exeter's Elections Centre. This includes ward- and candidate-level results from last year's locals. commonslibrary.parliament.uk/2025-local-e...

Experimental participants to us

In launching the Welsh Labour manifesto, Eluned Morgan did not mention Keir Starmer once.

This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism vs. No It Won’t

Since election observing and Democracy Volunteers is making the rounds on socials, leading to all kinds of conspiracy theories, I feel I should give my two cents at someone who's volunteered with them both in the UK and abroad. (See wind-ruined haircut at Caerphilly by-election last year)

Imagine devoting your entire career to selling the idea that the British public hates wokery and is clamouring for radical right wing populism, only to then be defeated in an actual election by the most left wing possible coalition of politicians and activists in the country. It's got to hurt

While you're all messing around on Bluesky: I have a new working paper on the Gallagher index, the most common measure of disproportionality. TL;DR: I show that it is constrained by the size of the party system, which can cause problems comparing elections across time and space.

"Family voting, where two voters either confer, collude or direct each other on voting is a breach of the Ballot Secrecy Act. Anyone found guilty of breaching these secrecy requirements could face a fine or imprisonment for up to six months." (Source: www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...)

But it is another example of how Reform boost turnout for progressive parties. They are so profoundly toxic. When you put it alongside the Tories losing their deposit, the right have a serious problem.

Always time for an entry into Welsh politics in May if he fancies another go...

Love the glimpse into the beautiful mind that notated this used copy of Moby Dick I got

oh come on

Why do I have to pretend that I'm going to print something in order to save it as a PDF. Why do I have to engage in a little ruse.

📮 Full text of the letter calling on the Government to engage with the growing risks First Past the Post now presents ✍️ Signatories include leading academics, political scientists and constitutional experts - including a former Chief Executive of the UK Electoral Commission 👇 Read it in full

this feels like a spoof from The Day Today

Happy birthday to one of my favourite haters, Charles Darwin

For the craic - The trendines for each pollster from 2024 to now

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

Macbeth: SHIT

Apparently the zombocom domain expired yesterday and was presumably bought out by some other jackass who launched this vibe-coded IMPOSTOR

More geographical confusion. Nigel Farage said Reform's new leader in Wales had "come back to the Valleys", so his children could grow up Welsh. Nation Cymru report he had moved from London to Bath in the west of England, about 50-60 miles from Islwyn, across the border nation.cymru/news/the-new...

ten years ago today no one clapped

🚨🚨 NEW BLOGPOST 🚨🚨 The right wing should be worried about young men. Unlike Europe and the US, British young men are swinging wildly behind progressive parties. Some thoughts on why, and why most of the right are ignoring it. open.substack.com/pub/joxleywr...