Absolutely cracking @walesgovernance.bsky.social annual lecture by Prof John Curtice of @unistrathclyde.bsky.social about the devolution elections in Scotland & Wales in the new era of multi-party politics in the UK, with Plaid Cymru/SNP emerging as chief rivals to Reform in #Senedd26 #Holyrood26

Checking in on Rudy Giuliani, I see he's having an insane one

New blog Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labour’s Future Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m

Lawyers can breathe a sigh of relief that the odds of being shot by Dick Cheney have now went from "improbable" to "impossible".

Pairwise visual conjoint experiment in the wild

Arne Slot and Geert Wilders tonight:

You think your elections are nail biters? In the last poll of the polls, the @peilingwijzer.bsky.social produced by @tomlouwerse.nl, before election day in the Netherlands tomorrow, three parties are tied for first place peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl

this timeline is unreal

That scene of the Welsh BBC correspondent being the only person interviewing Caerphilly's new Plaid AM while the rest of the media interviewed Reform's loser in the background was far too on the nose.

📺 New research from @cujournmedcul.bsky.social's Enhancing the Impartiality of Political News project Our latest study analyses how BBC Cymru Wales and ITV Wales have covered the Caerphilly by-election across TV, online & social media. 🔗 www.enhancingimpartiality.com/blog/bbc-itv... TLDR 👇

My mistake, you are correct! I generated the file, but I did not give you a download link — let me go get it for you [pretends to walk down stairs behind couch]

Y NEWYDDION DIWEDDARAF - Pôl isetholiad Caerffili wedi'i rhyddhau gan Camlas a @survation.bsky.social Mae ein pôl ar gyfer isetholiad #Caerffili yn darogan y bydd Reform UK yn ennill gyda Phlaid Cymru yn ail agos. Mae Llafur Cymru yn drydydd gyda dim ond 12% o’r pôl.

BREAKING - New Caerphilly by-election prediction poll released by Camlas and Survation Ltd Our poll for the upcoming #Caerphilly by-election places Reform UK to win with Plaid Cymru close behind. Welsh Labour is pushed to a vote share of just 12%.

Someone at the Guinea-Bissau electoral commission was having a lot of fun with WordArt in 1994

This is such a good article btw - I really buy this as a theory of contemporary US politics

The rarely seen Type III Error.

NEW DATA: Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election on 2026 boundaries. Of interest to academics/pollsters/journos Post: chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/sp2026... Data: github.com/chrishanrett... Source: github.com/chrishanrett...

ARE YOU LISTENING MAURICE DUVERGER?? YOUR BOYS TOOK A HELL OF A BEATING TONY DOWNS, CAN YOU HEAR ME? WHERE IS YOUR MEDIAN VOTER NOW???

I've written for @uniofbathipr.bsky.social blog about why the @appgfairelections.bsky.social's blueprint for a "National Commission on Electoral Reform" avoids the pitfalls of previous electoral reform efforts (e.g. the Jenkins Commission), and offers a way for British politics to escape from FPTP

Anyone going to add this to their MRP?

THE MEME IS REAL

NEW: The UK Govt's Ministry of Justice begins routinely publishing Wales-only prison data for the first time following a decade of research exposing issues in the Welsh criminal justice system by Dr Robert Jones. 1/3 www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/29...

All EU countries appear to be gone in the Google political ad library By @lizcarolan.com

The Swingometer is back up and running today after an extended book writing hiatus. I've taken a long look at Reform's May local elections performance, how FPP is now Farage's friend, and why it may get even better for Reform (& worse for Lab & Con) next May: open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

w/ @massimoprearo.bsky.social on @qoe-ijes.bsky.social, we introduce our 2024 Italian LGBTIQ+ Electoral Survey: the first large-N evidence on the political behaviour & attitudes of Italian LGBTIQ+ citizens. We discuss data, methodological challenges & relevance here: oaj.fupress.net/index.php/qo...

Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

The seat projections are pretty dramatic. Allowing for movement of a few points in many directions: Plaid Cymru ~38 seats, Reform UK ~35 seats, Labour ~11 seats, Conservatives ~6 seats, Lib Dems ~3 seats, Greens ~ 1 🧵

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Charlie Kirk was a champion of free speech and anyone who says otherwise will be fired

"Resolved: Debate is stupid" by Aisling McCrea in The Outline from 2018 "Wow, that is correct and there is no counterargument. Debate is indeed very stupid". theoutline.com/post/6709/de...

Say what you want about mixed systems but they are a nice laboratory for finding out what happens to FPTP under serious fragmentation. The average winning vote share in German constituency has fallen below 33% for the first time this year. 127 winners won with less than 30% vote share in 2025. 1/

An... interesting development in what was already set to be the most challenging/high profile (and probably the final before Senedd reform takes effect in May 2026) by-election in the Senedd's history www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... #senedd #devolution

Siaradodd @nyedavies.bsky.social â Nick Servini ar BBC Radio Wales y bore 'ma i drafod cystadleuaeth Dirprwy Arweinydd y Blaid Llafur: Dr Nye Davies on Radio Wales this morning, discussing the competition for the role of UK Labour's Deputy Leader and its connection with a famous Welsh MP:

🚨New Research 🚨 Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE. Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters. 🧵⬇️ tinyurl.com/3m62exph

🚨 NEW: Cross-party MPs publish ‘ready to go’ blueprint for electoral reform commission — FPTP “threatens to undermine the resilience and stability of our democratic system”, @appgfairelections.bsky.social MPs say — The group is calling on ministers to greenlight its plan Exclusive story 👇

I'm reviewing Sir Nick Clegg's newest book and the first pages are already showing some promise.

NEWYDD - gan @ailsahenderson.bsky.social a minnau. NEW by me and my fellow student of Englishness, Prof. Ailsa Henderson. theconversation.com/nigel-farage...

Gordon Freeman's job at the black mesa science facility is pushing the little cart into the big laser. it's what he wrote his doctoral thesis about

Good & clear on the gulf between A.I. hype/snake oil & actual political economy. moneypower.substack.com/p/the-politi...

what an image

Statement by Eluned Morgan MS, First Minister of Wales on the passing of Hefin David MS Datganiad gan Eluned Morgan MS, Prif Weinidog Cymru ar farwolaeth Hefin David MS.

Mae @jaclarner.bsky.social ar BBC Wales yr wythnos yma i drafod rhagolygon y pleidiau gwrthbleidiol yn Senedd Cymru o flaen yr etholiad nesaf: Dr Jac Larner discusses the prospects for opposition parties in the Welsh Parliament ahead of #Senedd26 and its new voting system this week on #WalesCast:

According to @NatCen, fully three-fifths (60%) of the British public now support changing the voting system for UK general elections. Scrapping FPTP is more urgent than ever. electoral-reform.org.uk/support-for-...

There's a realistic chance we get to a position where Wikipedia is blocked while official government accounts are posting on a site that created MechaHitler AI

This is also cyberpunk

You: pornbots keep randomly following me on Bluesky Me, an intellectual: pornbots are citing my books on Google Scholar