🖊️ ARTICLE | Reform rides high - but why? Three years ago, Reform were polling 1%. Today they seem poised for a landslide GE win. How did this happen? And how did Labour fumble an easy layup so badly? Find out in my latest piece: www.statsforlefties.com/2025/11/07/poll-roundup-october

🚨 POLL | Reform lead, Greens 2nd ➡️ REF – 33% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 18% (+1) 🔵 CON – 16% (-) 🔴 LAB – 15% (-1) 🟠 LD – 11% (-1) Via @FindoutnowUK, 5-6 Nov (+/- vs 29 Oct)

🚨 NEW | Labour falls to 3rd place ➡️ REF – 31% (-2) 🔵 CON – 19% (+1) 🔴 LAB – 18% (-3) 🟠 LD – 13% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 12% (+1) Via @Moreincommon_, 31 Oct-3 Nov (+/- vs 27 Oct)

🚨 NOWCAST | Reform to win majority ➡️ REF – 359 seats (+354) 🟠 LD – 83 seats (+11) 🔴 LAB – 71 seats (-339) 🔵 CON – 31 seats (-90) 🟡 SNP – 45 seats (+36) 🟢 GRN – 19 seats (+15) This uses my NEW seat projection method.

🚨 BREAKING | Greens rocket to **2nd place** ➡️ REF – 32% (-) 🟢 GRN – 17% (+2) 🔴 LAB – 16% (-) 🔵 CON – 16% (-1) 🟠 LD – 12% (-) Via @findoutnowuk, 29 Oct (+/- vs 22 Oct)

New York City polling averages: 🔵 Mamdani (D) - 48% ⚪️ Cuomo (I) - 32% 🔴 Sliwa (R) - 17% Based on polls conducted in October 2025

🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 12pts ➡️ REF – 33% (+2) 🔴 LAB – 21% (-1) 🔵 CON – 18% (-1) 🟠 LD – 12% (-1) 🟢 GRN – 11% (+1) Via @moreincommon_, 24-27 Oct (+/- vs 17-20 Oct)

🚨 NEW | Greens at 16%, 1pt shy of Labour ➡️ REF – 27% (+1) 🔴 LAB – 17% (-3) 🔵 CON – 17% (-) 🟢 GRN – 16% (+1) 🟠 LD – 15% (-) Via @YouGov, 26-27 Oct (+/- vs 19-20 Oct)

🚨 BREAKING | Greens surge to **17%** ➡️ REF – 28% (+1) 🔴 LAB – 18% (-4) 🔵 CON – 18% (-1) 🟢 GRN – 17% (+4) 🟠 LD – 11% (+1) Via @LordAPolls, 16-20 Oct (+/- vs 11-15 Sep)

🚨 NEW | Poll points to SNP Holyrood MAJORITY 🟡 SNP – 66 seats (+2) ➡️ REF – 16 seats (+16) 🟢 GRN – 15 seats (+7) 🔴 LAB – 14 seats (-8) 🟠 LD – 9 seats (+5) 🔵 CON – 9 seats (-22) My estimate based on @FindoutnowUK poll, 14 Oct

🚨 NEW | Left-winger Catherine Connolly WINS election for President of Ireland* in a landslide. 🔴 Connolly (IND) – 63.4% 🔵 Humphreys (FG) – 29.5% 🟢 Gavin (FF) – 7.1% *Note: President of Ireland is the head of state but is NOT the head of government like in US/France etc.

🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 15pts ➡️ REF – 32% (-) 🔵 CON – 17% (-) 🔴 LAB – 16% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 15% (-) 🟠 LD – 12% (-) Via @FindoutnowUK, 22 Oct (+/- vs 15 Oct)

🚨 NEW | Plaid Cymru GAIN Caerphilly 🟢 PLAID – 47% (+19) ➡️ REF – 36% (+34) 🔴 LAB – 11% (-35) 🔵 CON – 2% (-15) 🟢 GRN – 2% (+2) 🟠 LD – 2% (-1) +/- vs 2021 Senedd election

🚨 BREAKING | 9 in 10 transgender people distrust Labour on the issue of trans rights, reveals new poll. ✅ Trust – 9% ❌ Distrust – 91% Via @YouGov / @GoodLawProject, 23 Jul-11 Aug

🟢 Senedd poll | Reform lead by 7pts ➡️ REF – 30% (+5) 🔴 LAB – 23% (-4) 🟢 PLAID – 22% (+1) 🔵 CON – 11% (-2) 🟢 GRN – 9% (+3) 🟠 LD – 4% (-) Via @BeaufortLtd, 22 Sep-12 Oct (+/- vs 3 Jul)

🚨 NEW | Greens hit 15% with YouGov ➡️ REF – 26% (-1) 🔴 LAB – 20% (-) 🔵 CON – 17% (-) 🟠 LD – 15% (-1) 🟢 GRN – 15% (+2) Via @YouGov, 19-20 Oct (+/- vs 13-14 Oct)

On the day Zack Polanski announced his leadership campaign, the Green Party had 60,000 members. They now have 128,000 - an increase of 113%. He doubled the membership in just 5 months.

🚨 MRP | Greens to win Manchester Rusholme 🟢 GRN – 28% (+5) 🔴 LAB – 25% (-27) ➡️ REF – 17% (+11) 🟣 YRP – 15% (new) 🔵 CON – 5% (-1) 🟠 LD – 3% (new) Via @FindoutnowUK / @ElectCalculus, 10-18 Sep

🚨 POLL | Britons SUPPORT banning Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from attending next month's Aston Villa match. ✅ Support – 42% ❌ Oppose – 28% Via @YouGov, 17 October

🚨 BREAKING | Greens TIED with Labour ➡️ REF – 32% (-) 🔵 CON – 17% (-) 🟢 GRN – 15% (-) 🔴 LAB – 15% (-2) 🟠 LD – 12% (-) Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Oct (+/- vs 8 Oct)

🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 10pts ➡️ REF – 32% (-2) 🔴 LAB – 22% (+1) 🔵 CON – 18% (+2) 🟠 LD – 11% (-1) 🟢 GRN – 10% (-) Via @OpiniumResearch, 8-10 Oct (+/- vs 1-3 Oct)

🚨 BREAKING | Trans activist group BASH BACK have smashed up the Brighton Centre, which will play host to anti-trans hate group FiLiA today. BASH BACK wrote in a statement: "These bigots have our blood on their hands", adding FiLiA should "expect retaliation" for transphobia.

🚨 NOWCAST | Reform to win majority of 108 ➡️ REF – 379 seats (+374) 🟠 LD – 83 seats (+11) 🔴 LAB – 76 seats (-335) 🟡 SNP – 46 seats (+37) 🔵 CON – 21 seats (-100) 🟢 GRN – 5 seats (+1) +/- vs GE2024

🚨 NEW | Greens surge to 15% (2pts behind Lab) ➡️ REF – 32% (-3) 🔴 LAB – 17% (-2) 🔵 CON – 17% (+3) 🟢 GRN – 15% (+4) 🟠 LD – 12% (-) Via @FindoutnowUK, 8 Oct (+/- vs 1 Oct)

🚨 BREAKING | Greens hit 10% in poll average for the very first time, an all-time high for the party. This is the first time in the party's history that they have hit double-digits in polls, and comes as the party stands within touching distance of 100,000 members.

My thoughts today. Free Palestine

🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 7% ➡️ REF – 27% (-2) 🔴 LAB – 20% (-2) 🟠 LD – 17% (+2) 🔵 CON – 17% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 12% (+1) Via @YouGov, 5-6 Oct (+/- vs 28-29 Sep)

🚨 POLL | 80% of Green members support trans people being allowed to change their legal gender. ✅ Support – 80% ❌ Oppose – 8% 86% of Zack Polanski voters support trans rights. Via @YouGov, 2 October

🚨 NEW | Anti-trans hate group "Green Women's Declaration" have been formally barred from Green Party conference. The group sought a stall at conference, but their bid was denied by the party. Green leader Zack Polanski recently affirmed the party's support for trans rights.

🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 16% ➡️ REF – 35% (+2) 🔴 LAB – 19% (+2) 🔵 CON – 14% (-) 🟠 LD – 12% (-4) 🟢 GRN – 11% (-1) Via @findoutnowUK, 1 Oct (+/- vs 24 Sep)

🚨 NEW | "Your Party" has officially been registered with Electoral Commission, with Corbyn appointed as sole leader of the party without a members' ballot. Adnan Hussain is nominating officer (responsible for candidate selection). Party reports £855,000 in assets.

🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 12% ➡️ REF – 34% (+4) 🔴 LAB – 22% (-2) 🔵 CON – 17% (-2) 🟠 LD – 11% (-) 🟢 GRN – 8% (-) Via @Survation, 24-25 Sep (+/- vs 2 Sep)

🚨 BREAKING | Starmer would LOSE leadership election if Andy Burnham challenged him for the leadership. 🔴 Andy Burnham – 68% 🔴 Keir Starmer – 32% (Source: @YouGov)

🚨 BREAKING | Greens now have 80,000 members. This is an increase of 10,000 since @zackpolanski.bsky.social won the leadership in a landslide victory (85-15). (Source: @greenparty.org.uk)

🗳️ BREAKING | Starmer is now the most unpopular Prime Minister in history - WORSE than Truss 🔴 Starmer – 13% satisfied, 79% dissatisfied 🔵 Liz Truss – 16% satisfied, 67% dissatisfied Via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 11-17 Sep

🚨 BREAKING | Brits OPPOSE Labour's ID card plan ✅ Support – 42% ❌ Oppose – 45% Via @YouGov, 26 Sep

Some people on BlueSky are very upset at me for posting this. They're claiming it's all sensationalist lies, and that I'm trying to make trans people scared. That's really upsetting because everything I said below is true. Labour is trying to ban us from all single-sex spaces, this is a fact.

🚨 MRP estimate | Reform to win decisive plurality ➡️ REF – 27% / 311 seats (+306) 🔴 LAB – 21% / 144 seats (-267) 🔵 CON – 17% / 45 seats (-76) 🟠 LD – 15% / 78 seats (+6) 🟢 GRN – 11% / 7 seats (+3) 🟡 SNP – 3% / 37 seats (+28) Via @YouGov, 31 Aug - 24 Sep

🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 16pts ➡️ REF – 33% (-1) 🔴 LAB – 17% (+1) 🟠 LD – 16% (+3) 🔵 CON – 14% (-2) 🟢 GRN – 12% (-) Via @FindoutnowUK, 24 Sep (+/- vs 17-18 Sep)

🚨 #GE2029 | SNP lead by **16pts** 🟡 SNP – 35% (+3) ➡️ REF – 19% (-2) 🔴 LAB – 19% (-) 🔵 CON – 12% (+1) 🟠 LD – 8% (-3) 🟢 GRN – 4% (-1) Via @Survation, 4-16 Sep (+/- vs 2-5 May)

🚨 BREAKING | Wes Streeting confirms Labour is actively working to BAN trans women AND trans men from female spaces, describing their presence as "unpleasant". Streeting confirmed to MumsNet that Labour aims to exclude ALL trans people from single-sex spaces. (Via MumsNet)

🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 5pts ➡️ REF – 28% (+1) 🔴 LAB – 23% (-) 🔵 CON – 20% (-) 🟢 GRN – 13% (+2) 🟠 LD – 10% (-1) Via @LordAPolls, 11-15 Sep (+/- vs 14-18 Aug)

🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 9pts ➡️ REF – 31% (+1) 🔴 LAB – 22% (-1) 🔵 CON – 17% (-1) 🟠 LD – 12% (-) 🟢 GRN – 10% (-) Via @OpiniumResearch, 17-19 Sep (+/- vs 3-5 Sep)

🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 10pts ➡️ REF – 30% (-1) 🔴 LAB – 20% (-1) 🔵 CON – 19% (+1) 🟠 LD – 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 9% (-1) Via @techneUK, 17-18 Sep (+/- vs 1-4 Sep)

🚨 BREAKING | Labour plunge to 16% ➡️ REF – 34% (-) 🔴 LAB – 16% (-3) 🔵 CON – 16% (+1) 🟠 LD – 13% (+1) 🟢 GRN – 12% (-) Via FindoutnowUK 17-18 Sep (+/- vs 10 Sep)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 NEW | GE2029 poll shows Welsh Labour WIPEOUT ➡️ REF – 29% (+5) 🟩 PLAID – 23% (-1) 🔴 LAB – 18% (-2) 🔵 CON – 11% (-2) 🟠 LD – 9% (-) 🟢 GRN – 7% (-) Via YouGov, 4-10 Sep (+/- vs 23-30 Apr)

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 SENEDD POLL | Labour plunge to just 14% 🟩 PLAID – 30% (-) ➡️ REF – 29% (+4) 🔴 LAB – 14% (-4) 🔵 CON – 11% (-2) 🟠 LD – 6% (-1) 🟢 GRN – 6% (+1) Via YouGov 4-10 Sep (+/- vs 23-30 Apr)

🚨 NEW | Reform lead by 9% ➡️ REF – 29% (+2) 🔴 LAB – 20% (-2) 🔵 CON – 17% (-) 🟠 LD – 15% (-) 🟢 GRN – 10% (-2) Via YouGov 14-15 Sep (+/- vs 7-8 Sep)

🚨 Net approval for PMs after 13 months 👇 ✅ Blair +40 ✅ Major +13 ✅ Callaghan +1 --- ❌ Sunak -29 ❌ Starmer -43 ❌ Brown -53

🚨 POLL | Reform lead by 10% ➡️ REF – 31% (+2) 🔴 LAB – 21% (-1) 🔵 CON – 18% (-) 🟠 LD – 14% (-2) 🟢 GRN – 10% (+1) Via TechneUK, 1-4 Sep (+/- vs 11 Jul)