1/5 Delighted to say that my first book, Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit, is now available for pre-order with Routledge. It’s been a long road, and I’m very glad to be able to share it. www.routledge.com/Explaining-N...

Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/

"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."

I have some polling-retrospective content coming out later this week, but I can't do much better on the Q of MRPs than @eoghanly.bsky.social. On aggregate, they were useless and negatively impacted election coverage.

This is quite the story.

We ran the election 1000 times using the Monte Carlo method, these are the most likely outcomes for each constituency. You can instantly run 1000 more variations here: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

Exclusive: Polling suggests the SNP is clinging to leads in three Edinburgh seats. But the Lib Dems and Greens are in pursuit. And projections suggest it is just as "reasonably likely" that the SNP loses or wins all three. @heraldscotland.bsky.social www.heraldscotland.com/news/2606185...

In our Monte Carlo system, which tests 1000x variations of the election, Reform win the most seats 59% of the time with Plaid Cymru winning 41%. Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

Our Monte Carlo system which runs 1000 variations of this election generally finds: SNP 58-62 Reform 18-22 Lab 16-18 Green 10-13, Con 10-12 LD 9-11 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

On the topic of MRPs being effectively useless, I think the Telegraph/JL Poll messed up their own D'Hondt calculations. The real numbers are: SNP: 57 Labour:21 Conservatives: 13 Liberal Democrats: 8 Greens: 11 Reform: 19 This is really basic stuff.

The least densely populated census areas according to the latest census: Garrison & Belcoo When I tell people I'm from the middle of nowhere, I mean it.

trying to do a NYT-style swing map but the swings are too mad

National Parliament Election in Hungary today 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 Turnout as of 9 a.m. is significantly higher than in previous elections. Plotting the 2026–2022 turnout change against Fidesz–KDNP's 2022 vote share reveals no clear pattern. #Hungary Explore live: europeelects.eu/2026/04/04/n...

The latest in our party by party analysis: Prepping for Opposition: Reform in Wales devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/reform-...

We've got a new addition to the system to show how much uncertainty there is in this - and any - projection. Picture 1 is our current Welsh Nowcast. Pictures 2 & 3 are the same numbers but with Random Regional Variaton added. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Devolved Elections is delighted to announce a partnership with @electheruk.bsky.social to project the number of female candidates for the upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections. Currently, we expect Scotland to have a much more even gender split than Wales. devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/devolve...

Resharing my new article “The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives” @eoghanly.bsky.social @muirismac.bsky.social @qubelfastofficial.bsky.social @ballioloxford.bsky.social @politicsoxford.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Personally, I'd have gone with the fact that "one in five (22%) also supported it for non-white citizens whose parents were born in the UK" for the headline. 😱

We have a new system almost ready to go which accounts for the fact that a lot of Green voters won't have a Green candidate on the ballot. We'll launch it once the Greens confirm which seats they're contesting. If anyone has the list please send it over!

People are welcome to make projections based on whatever method they like. But, the entirely unsurprising claim that 25% of Labour voters prefer the SNP to Reform does not mean they will go out and vote for the SNP in places Reform have never stood a candidate!

For those interested in devolution and public policy disasters, this is an interesting paper on the 'cash for ash' scandal, the RHI inquiry and what the crisis and the response to the inquiry tells us about Northern Ireland's governance #devolution #stormont

Scotland is about to demonstrate how badly FPTP performs when you through a load of parties at it, fortunately the regional list will mask it a bit. At Westminster there is no List to hide the absurdity of these results.

Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for May's Scottish Parliament election: 🎗️ SNP — 57 🌹 Lab — 18 🌳 Con — 12 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 12 ➡️ Ref — 20 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Delighted to see my new article, co-authored with @eoghanly.bsky.social and @muirismac.bsky.social, published today! Title: 'The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives' Read it open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Our projection for May's Senedd election based on the latest More in Common poll: ➡️ Ref — 37 🌼 PC — 25 🌹 Lab — 19 🌳 Con — 10 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 2 From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Try it for yourself! devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro... www.thenational.scot/news/2583446...

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks Sunday Independent poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41 ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 💬 Independent — 6 🌳 Aontú — 4 ✊ PBP-S — 4 🌱 Green — 1 From irishelections.ie/general

Our Projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk poll for May's Holyrood election 🎗️ SNP — 58 ➡️ Ref — 24 🌹 Lab — 17 🌱 GP — 12 🌳 Con — 9 🐤 LD — 9 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Oh wow. Trump got a hand-me-down Nobel Peace Prize! Did you know: It would not be the first time a Nobel laureate has given his or her medal away: in 1943 Nobel Literature laureate Knut Hamsun gave his medal to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.

A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social 🌼 PC — 40 ➡️ Ref — 27 🌱 GP — 15 🌹 Lab — 6 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

It is very on-brand for Reform to announce their 2028 London Mayoral candidate before either their 2026 Senedd leader or 2026 Holyrood leader. Priorities. www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for Mayor of London, new survey reveals @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

Our latest Mile End Institute/Savanta London Poll is out! Labour - 31% Reform - 19% Greens - 18% Cons - 17% LD - 13% @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

Exactly this. Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled. Between late September and Late November: - Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party) - Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history. - NI had 1 Westminster had over 40.

When simulated 1000x the closest constituencies are: Dumfriesshire, Edinburgh Central, East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, and, Argyll and Bute devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

A projection based on the latest @irishinstitute.bsky.social for the next NI Assembly election: ☘️ SF — 25 🦁 DUP — 20 🤝 AP — 16 🔷 UUP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 7 🌹 SDLP — 6 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

A projection on that shock @cardiffuni.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll 🌼 PC — 39 ➡️ Ref — 37 🌹 Lab — 6 🌱 GP — 6 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?

The UCL Constitution Unit has an excellent briefing series on UK politics that is perfect for students of all ages and levels. The latest release includes a briefing on #NorthernIreland, which I co-authored. Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo... @conunitucl.bsky.social

We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales. We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings. It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies. We'll update it regularly to show changes. 👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

We also provide seat ranges for all Unionists, Nationalists and Others to see which bloc is likely to come out ahead. We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings. It means that most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.

We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection! Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner. irishelections.ie/presidential/

We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection! It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss. Just click it again for a different scenario. devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election. DUP + UUP + TUV: 38 A Unified Party: 38 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...

A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie: 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 40 ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 19 💬 Independent — 11 🌹 Labour — 10 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 🌳 Aontú — 2 ✊ PBP-S — 2 ⚪ Other — 1 irishelections.ie/general/

The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election: 🎗️ SNP — 58 🌹 Lab — 24 🌳 Con — 8 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 10 ➡️ Ref — 19 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Our first Nowcast: 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 43 ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 19 🌹 Labour — 11 💬 Independent — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 6 🌳 Aontú — 3 ✊ PBP-S — 2 From @irishelection.bsky.social

Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings. Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.

💥 The Government has just published its proposals for electoral reforms 💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."

We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear. It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.