People are welcome to make projections based on whatever method they like. But, the entirely unsurprising claim that 25% of Labour voters prefer the SNP to Reform does not mean they will go out and vote for the SNP in places Reform have never stood a candidate!

For those interested in devolution and public policy disasters, this is an interesting paper on the 'cash for ash' scandal, the RHI inquiry and what the crisis and the response to the inquiry tells us about Northern Ireland's governance #devolution #stormont

Scotland is about to demonstrate how badly FPTP performs when you through a load of parties at it, fortunately the regional list will mask it a bit. At Westminster there is no List to hide the absurdity of these results.

Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for May's Scottish Parliament election: 🎗️ SNP — 57 🌹 Lab — 18 🌳 Con — 12 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 12 ➡️ Ref — 20 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Delighted to see my new article, co-authored with @eoghanly.bsky.social and @muirismac.bsky.social, published today! Title: 'The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives' Read it open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Our projection for May's Senedd election based on the latest More in Common poll: ➡️ Ref — 37 🌼 PC — 25 🌹 Lab — 19 🌳 Con — 10 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 2 From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Try it for yourself! devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro... www.thenational.scot/news/2583446...

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks Sunday Independent poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41 ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 💬 Independent — 6 🌳 Aontú — 4 ✊ PBP-S — 4 🌱 Green — 1 From irishelections.ie/general

Our Projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk poll for May's Holyrood election 🎗️ SNP — 58 ➡️ Ref — 24 🌹 Lab — 17 🌱 GP — 12 🌳 Con — 9 🐤 LD — 9 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Oh wow. Trump got a hand-me-down Nobel Peace Prize! Did you know: It would not be the first time a Nobel laureate has given his or her medal away: in 1943 Nobel Literature laureate Knut Hamsun gave his medal to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.

A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social 🌼 PC — 40 ➡️ Ref — 27 🌱 GP — 15 🌹 Lab — 6 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

It is very on-brand for Reform to announce their 2028 London Mayoral candidate before either their 2026 Senedd leader or 2026 Holyrood leader. Priorities. www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for Mayor of London, new survey reveals @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

Our latest Mile End Institute/Savanta London Poll is out! Labour - 31% Reform - 19% Greens - 18% Cons - 17% LD - 13% @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

Exactly this. Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled. Between late September and Late November: - Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party) - Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history. - NI had 1 Westminster had over 40.

When simulated 1000x the closest constituencies are: Dumfriesshire, Edinburgh Central, East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, and, Argyll and Bute devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

A projection based on the latest @irishinstitute.bsky.social for the next NI Assembly election: ☘️ SF — 25 🦁 DUP — 20 🤝 AP — 16 🔷 UUP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 7 🌹 SDLP — 6 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

A projection on that shock @cardiffuni.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll 🌼 PC — 39 ➡️ Ref — 37 🌹 Lab — 6 🌱 GP — 6 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?

The UCL Constitution Unit has an excellent briefing series on UK politics that is perfect for students of all ages and levels. The latest release includes a briefing on #NorthernIreland, which I co-authored. Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo... @conunitucl.bsky.social

We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales. We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings. It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies. We'll update it regularly to show changes. 👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

We also provide seat ranges for all Unionists, Nationalists and Others to see which bloc is likely to come out ahead. We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings. It means that most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.

We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection! Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner. irishelections.ie/presidential/

We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection! It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss. Just click it again for a different scenario. devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election. DUP + UUP + TUV: 38 A Unified Party: 38 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...

A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie: 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 40 ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 19 💬 Independent — 11 🌹 Labour — 10 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 🌳 Aontú — 2 ✊ PBP-S — 2 ⚪ Other — 1 irishelections.ie/general/

The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election: 🎗️ SNP — 58 🌹 Lab — 24 🌳 Con — 8 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 10 ➡️ Ref — 19 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Our first Nowcast: 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 43 ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 19 🌹 Labour — 11 💬 Independent — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 6 🌳 Aontú — 3 ✊ PBP-S — 2 From @irishelection.bsky.social

Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings. Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.

💥 The Government has just published its proposals for electoral reforms 💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."

We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear. It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.

Also, whoever wrote this obviously never tried to use one to get into a pub in Enniskillen.

“The point about PR isn't that it favours one party or another. In the unlikely event that most people choose a populist party we'd get a populist government. What PR will not do - and FPTP very much would - is to hand 100% government control to a party that most people voted against” Andy Beck MVM

Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru : Lab — 30 Seats Ref — 29 PC — 22 Con — 10 LD — 2 GP — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

If this happened in any other part of the UK or the island of Ireland, people would rightfully go to prison for it.

The formation of the NI Executive is one of NI's oddest quirks. This obeys all the rules - and there a lot of them - to make it easy to understand and accurate.

1 year ago today Labour swept to power. They won a huge majority of seats with an unremarkable share I've put last year's results into our projection to see how Labour *could* have done if GE24 results had played out at the devolved tier in Scotland & Wales vs how they're doing now It's not pretty

Who wants to see how 81 different census variables correlate with this May's local election results? Of course you do: www.datawrapper.de/_/avuui/?v=4

Officially a Doctor of Politics for my work looking at how devolved elections have impacted party systems in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

New Ipsos Poll for ‪@stv.news‬ SNP — 57 Seats Lab — 25 GP — 16 Ref — 16 Con — 8 LD — 7 Alba — 0 Conservatives in 5th with just 1 constituency seat.

🚨 Our Coalition Builder tool is now live for Scottish and Welsh projections! 🗳️ Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨

My husband knows the politics 🗳️ I write the code 💻 Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨ Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert: 🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡 #elections #devolution #politics #uk

Our new London Assembly projection tool is live! Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early). Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

New visual for Scotland! 📊 — you can now see the order of Regional seats in our Scottish projections. Our latest Nowcast has the Tories down to just 1 seat in Glasgow. www.devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

You can now see D'Hondt seat allocation for every Senedd constituency! The last two seats in Caerdydd Penarth are on a Knife edge between Plaid Cymru, Tories and Greens according to our Nowcast. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

We've added a new Tactical Voting button - this adjusts up the vote shares of previously large parties in Scottish constituencies in line with historic trends. It shifts the SNP down 2 seats in our Nowcast to 59. Lab — 19 Ref — 17 Con — 16 GP — 10 LD — 8 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Using the great @devolvedelections.bsky.social model the #SubPollSeries for Week 23 has a bit more colour and info. I've translated the WM voting intention to a Scottish voting intention for constituency and list and come on with view of the Scottish Parliament. Still a work in progress!

Inverting the Projection on the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse By-Election Result devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/inverti... @devolvedelections.bsky.social

*If* the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election were extrapolated nationally: SNP — 49 Seats Ref — 26 Lab — 23 Con — 14 GP — 10 LD — 7 @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/