Our Nowcast for the next NI Assembly. ☘️ SF — 22 🦁 DUP — 17 🤝 AP — 12 🔷 UUP — 10 🌹 SDLP — 12 Ⓣ TUV — 12 ✊ PBP — 2 🌱 GP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 There's a tightening battle within unionism as the TUV reel in the DUP. Alliance and Sinn Féin are also on the slide, with the Greens and SDLP ticking up.

Our current Nowcast for the Senedd 2026 election. ➡️ Ref — 37 🌼 PC — 28 🌹 Lab — 21 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 2 There have been no polls since Plaid's convincing victory in Caerphilly so we can't see if it's had a broader effect. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

There's not been a lot of polling for the 2026 Scottish Parliament recently so here's the current lay of the land. SNP 🎗️ — 62 Lab 🌹 — 18 Con 🌳 — 12 GP 🌱 — 10 LD 🐤 — 10 Ref ➡️ — 17 Other ⚪ — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Wales overnight, Scotland the next day. Perfect. Hopefully, the Senedd doesn't follow Scotland's lead by selfishly insisting we get some sleep.

A projection based on the latest Beaufort Research Senedd poll for @NationCymru: ➡️ Ref — 35 🌹 Lab — 24 🌼 PC — 24 🌱 GP — 6 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 2 from: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales. We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings. It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies. We'll update it regularly to show changes. 👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects

Want to see the range of possible outcomes at the next NI Assembly election if the polls aren't perfect? We regularly run 1000 simulations to see how likely it is that each party wins their target seats. Wales, Scotland and London are in the works. 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/ni-projects/

Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the Norstat poll for @thetimes.com : 🎗️ SNP — 56 ➡️ Ref — 24 🌹 Lab — 20 🐤 LD — 12 🌳 Con — 10 🌱 GP — 7 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll: 🎗️ SNP — 63 🌹 Lab — 18 ➡️ Ref — 18 🌳 Con — 12 🐤 LD — 11 🌱 GP — 7 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

A projection based on the latest Barn Cymru poll for YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University for Senedd ‘26: ➡️ Ref — 37 🌼 PC — 36 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 2 From @devolvedelections.bsky.social

We've been busy on the other site as Ireland's presidential election gets into full swing

Scotland update: We all know polls are not perfect, so we've added a new preset to help visualise the uncertainty of polling. Below are some outcomes that are just a normal polling miss away based on current numbers The numbers change with every click

We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection! It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss. Just click it again for a different scenario. devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP. He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West. devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales. 2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-...

We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election. DUP + UUP + TUV: 38 A Unified Party: 38 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...

A projection based on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll for NI Assembly ‘27: ☘️ SF — 24 🦁 DUP — 16 🤝 AP — 14 🔷 UUP — 10 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 12 ✊ PBP — 2 🌱 GP — 1 ⚫ Ind — 1 From devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election: 🎗️ SNP — 58 🌹 Lab — 24 🌳 Con — 8 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 10 ➡️ Ref — 19 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data. We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense. 📊 Real-time seat forecasts 📈 Constituency breakdowns 🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers 👉 irishelections.ie

Our latest Nowcast for the 2026 Senedd election: Ref — 31 Seats PC — 28 Lab — 25 Con — 6 LD — 4 GP — 2 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Today's Nowcast for the next Assembly Election: SF — 24 Seats DUP — 20 AP — 15 UUP — 10 SDLP — 10 TUV — 10 GP — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

Our current Scottish Parliamentary Nowcast: SNP — 60 Seats Lab — 22 Con — 12 GP — 11 LD — 7 Ref — 17 Alba — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings. Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.

Laura Anne Jones defects to from Conservative to Reform giving them their first MS. Our Nowcast has Reform winning 2 in the new Sir Fynwy Torfaen constituency which overlaps with Jones' current seat, the Conservatives projected to win 1. Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

We're delighted to see the UK move to enfranchise more people and improve registration process. Westminster elections will now align with the Senedd and Holyrood for the first time since 2014.

Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru : Lab — 30 Seats Ref — 29 PC — 22 Con — 10 LD — 2 GP — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

🚨 A new More in Common/Sky News poll for the Senedd. Reform would be the largest party but have no clear path to government. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

🚨 We've introduced a new tool which shows you how the Northern Ireland Executive is formed. Just pick your justice minister, your opposition (if any), and press play! 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/ 👈

1 year ago today Labour swept to power. They won a huge majority of seats with an unremarkable share I've put last year's results into our projection to see how Labour *could* have done if GE24 results had played out at the devolved tier in Scotland & Wales vs how they're doing now It's not pretty

New Ipsos Poll for ‪@stv.news‬ SNP — 57 Seats Lab — 25 GP — 16 Ref — 16 Con — 8 LD — 7 Alba — 0 Conservatives in 5th with just 1 constituency seat.

🚨 Our Coalition Builder tool is now live for Scottish and Welsh projections! 🗳️ Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨

We crunched the numbers so you don’t have to 😎 Our Stormont Election Projection Tool just got a nod from @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social 👀 Curious who's up, down, or hanging by a transfer? 📈 Dive in:

🗳️ Delighted that our Stormont Election Projection Tool is featured by @sluggerotoolepols.bsky.social ✨ Built on constituency level data to map potential 2027 outcomes. 📊 Read more: sluggerotoole.com/2025/06/30/i...

Curious about the tech behind our projections? Check out our latest post for the inside scoop! 👀 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t...

Our new London Assembly projection tool is live! Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early). Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

New visual for Scotland! 📊 — you can now see the order of Regional seats in our Scottish projections. Our latest Nowcast has the Tories down to just 1 seat in Glasgow. www.devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

You can now see D'Hondt seat allocation for every Senedd constituency! The last two seats in Caerdydd Penarth are on a Knife edge between Plaid Cymru, Tories and Greens according to our Nowcast. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Our projection now shows transfers in Northern Ireland! devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

We've added a new Tactical Voting button - this adjusts up the vote shares of previously large parties in Scottish constituencies in line with historic trends. It shifts the SNP down 2 seats in our Nowcast to 59. Lab — 19 Ref — 17 Con — 16 GP — 10 LD — 8 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Inverting the Projection on the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse By-Election Result devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/inverti...

A quick experiment - we'll have a full write up tomorrow

New analysis: Prospects for Reform at the next devolved elections. www.devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/prospects-for-reform/

Our postdoc @eoghanly.bsky.social has co-developed @devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮 You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates. More info ⬇️ scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...

Our first DevolvedElections Nowcast for Senedd ‘26: Lab — 27 Seats Con — 12 PC — 28 LD — 3 Ref — 26 From @devolvedelections.bsky.social

Our first DevolvedElections Nowcast for Senedd ‘26: Lab — 27 Con — 12 PC — 28 LD — 3 Ref — 26 From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Our 'Nowcast' for NI Assembly ‘27: SF — 28 Seats DUP — 21 Seats AP — 16 Seats UUP — 9 Seats SDLP — 9 Seats TUV — 7 Seats From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/

Our current 'Nowcast' for Scottish Parl ‘26: SNP — 61 Seats Lab — 19 Seats Con — 16 Seats GP — 10 Seats LD — 11 Seats Ref — 12 Seats Alba — 0 Seats From @devolvedelections.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk