'Why are the voters so dissatisfied'

Enjoying "North Hampshire" as a large city. Hear that Reading, they're giving Basingstoke city status first.

Agreed. As I've said before, there is no justifiable case for synthetic polling panels, certainly not for political and social attitudes. Industry bodies need to get in there fast and institute complete bans on it - blacklisting, non-cooperation with media outlets that use such data, etc.

Andy Burnham's lead over Nigel Farage on who would make the better PM is twice Keir Starmer's lead over the Reform UK leader (+20 vs +10), though the difference between Burnham and Starmer is much smaller when facing Kemi Badenoch (+4 vs =0) yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

Just 25% of Britons now have a favourable opinion of Nigel Farage (21-22 June 2026), the joint lowest figure recorded by YouGov since the 2024 election Favourable: 25% Unfavourable: 65% Net: -40 yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

How does Starmer's pre-resignation net favourability rating compare to his predecessors'? Starmer: -45 May: -49 Johnson: -53 Sunak*: -53 Truss: -70 *prior to losing the 2024 election yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

There are some pre-existing aspects to Labour's current unpopularity - the cost of living and a deteriorated public realm - but there are many specific reasons too, which we know because the dips in popularity for Starmer and his predecessors coincide with the events the public say they didn't like.

So how did we get here, with Starmer on the way out after two years? To some extent, it does go back to the beginning. It was not an enthusiastic victory for Labour. Getting rid of the Tories was the top reason people voted for them in 2024, though with their message of 'Change' also resonating.

Goes back to the fact it is far easier to be a good Prime Minister if the Prime Minister before is good and every PM since May has been bad and facing a worse inheritance.

So how did we get here, with Starmer on the way out after two years? To some extent, it does go back to the beginning. It was not an enthusiastic victory for Labour. Getting rid of the Tories was the top reason people voted for them in 2024, though with their message of 'Change' also resonating.

For Aberdeen South to have widely applicable lessons, you have to accept: > There are many seats where the Tories can tactically squeeze a disproportionately ex-Tory Labour vote > There are many seats where North Sea oil is as salient > Allowing a 25% increase in the 2024 Ref share is good for them

🚨NEW BLOGPOST🚨 Makerfield is a big story for the left - but what does it tell us about the right? Some thoughts on Reform's path to power, the challenges of coalition building, and where it leaves them fighting Tories and Restore. open.substack.com/pub/joxleywr...

Lol. Is McSweeney back analysing public opinion data again? Might as well drop acid and have a conversation with some geese.

One of the advantages of electoral reform would be ending by-elections. Like, sorry, I know you all like the fun, but always so disappointed by the sheer number of paid commentators who will strip away very specific and important context to hype imagined trends. You lot just can't be trusted.

Britons tend to think Andy Burnham should challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, following Burnham's clear victory in the Makerfield by-election He should: 44% He should not: 19% 2024 Labour voters He should: 51% He should not: 22% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...

Kill me.

Aside from the obvious, which I feel I've done to death by now (it's just not at all surprising or unexplainable), one of the key facts about Starmer's unpopularity is the fall is overwhelmingly among Lab/LD/Grn voters. The implication here has far, far less grounding than his unpopularity.

If Britons had to write the letter of last resort to nuclear submarine commanders, detailing what they should do if the British government is destroyed, which order would they give? Place themselves under command of an ally: 24% Retaliate: 22% Do not retaliate: 12% Use own judgement: 9%

Tbf, people have also said it's not possible for Labour to come third in Wales, it's not possible for a govt to lose ~75% of the council seats it was defending in England outside of London, it's not possible to have literally zero understanding of your own electoral coalition. Wrong every time.

A lot of theories circulating about this, but the primary driver of the shift is a lot of Conservative and Reform UK voters seemingly going "The Labour Party? But I hate the Labour Party". There is a smaller increase in unfavourable among Lab/LD/Grn voters, but little change in favourable with them.

"labour is a socially liberal party" factoid actualy just statistical error. average labour cabinet minister is 0% liberal. bisexual roy, who does not live in a cave & wants people to have over 10,000 civil liberties, is an outlier adn should not have been counted

Ofc, the most wtf thing about this is that Starmer's ability to remain PM rests on convincing Labour MPs that he's learned from his mistakes and won't be making new ones. While I'm not as great a strategist as McSweeney, I feel reappointing the source of many such errors might work against this.

Smart move. If anything, too many Labour councillors were re-elected last month.

I feel answering 'why is Starmer so unpopular' has to start with 'why would he be'? In terms of qualities voters like in politicians (charisma, direction, relatability, not weak), few are found in him, and the ones he did once have (e.g., perceived competence) have been undermined in office.

Although 55% of Britons say they would support rejoining the EU in the abstract, just 35% would support rejoining the EU if the UK was not allowed its former opt-outs, as has been suggested by some EU officials Rejoining the EU Support: 55% Oppose: 34% Without opt-outs Support: 35% Oppose: 43%

It is outrageous that it's 2026 and not just Scotland but basically entire UK has no official source for election results in live time, and indeed we even take pride in our archaic approach, ooh isn't it wonderful watching people line up on a stage, charming, quaint! No! It's a failure to modernise!

Don't know how specific it is, but the argument I've found most compelling about not having an early election is the one about "after the last three months, Dylan Difford does not want to do any more 15 hour work days, at least not for the next two years". Personally, this was very moving.

There are probably 'grey parties' who exist solely to represent older people's interests with a younger coalition than the Tories these days. "Guys, it just says our average age is: retired"

🧵/ How Scotland voted at the 2026 Holyrood election: our new study breaks down how Scottish voters cast their ballots in last month's seismic election by all the key demographic and political divides yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

🧵/ How Wales voted at the 2026 Senedd election: our new study based on reanalysing the data behind our successful pre-election MRP identifies the key demographic and political divides behind the new Welsh party system yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

The 2026 Holyrood election saw significant turnover from the 2021 election, including the Tory vote largely splitting in half, with 41% sticking with the party and 40% defecting to Reform UK Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens held on to just 50-55% of their 2021 vote yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

Just 45% of Welsh voters who voted in the 2021 and 2026 Senedd elections backed the same party in both elections Labour retained just 34% of their 2021 vote, with 39% switching to Plaid Cymru, while 55% of 2021 Conservatives defected to Reform UK yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

The divides of the two referendums of the 2010s continue to loom large over Scottish politics, with the SNP dominant among "Yes" voters and leading among Remainers, while Reform UK were the top choice of Scots who voted to Leave the EU The unionist vote, though, was evenly split three ways

Oh, I know this one, it's literally anybody else.

Of the 18 animals on the shortlist unveiled today by the Bank of England, the barn owl, red fox and common kingfisher are the creatures the British public would most like to see feature on the next range of banknotes yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...

Last year, we shared a paper showing that Labour's accommodation of the radical right did not work. We now have a new version of the paper online: osf.io/preprints/so...

Hearing that the AI machine used to generate tonight's episode of Question Time has shown signs of genuine consciousness, in that it has subsequently only uttered "why?" and "kill me".

One of the parties needs to start a "remember proper spring" environmentalist nostalgia-bait campaign. End this sick early summer filth.

Notable how much this year's local results for Con+Lab were favourably skewed by London's elections falling this year Proportional seat change Lab London: -40% Unitaries: -69% Districts: -73% Counties: -73% Metros: -75% Con London: +1% Metros: -49% Districts: -49% Unitaries: -57% Counties: -76%

Perhaps key to why having a population roughly twice the size of Manchester’s doesn’t immediately settle the 'second city' debate in Birmingham’s favour is that just 14% of Britons consider population size to be the most important factor in determining a second city yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

When asked which is Britain's 'second city', the public are split between Manchester (34%) and Birmingham (30%). But when asked how good each city's case is, Manchester is the only one that most Britons believe has a strong case Manchester: 66% say has strong case Edinburgh: 49% Birmingham: 48%

Younger Britons are more likely to see Manchester as Britain's second city than older Britons 18-24 year olds Manchester: 42% Birmingham: 24% Edinburgh: 10% 65+ year olds Birmingham: 35% Manchester: 29% Edinburgh: 12% yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

Personally, I think I'd say Edinburgh, just as it's mainly a symbolic thing, though would go Manchester over Birmingham. I also have quite a soft spot for York's claim, even if few agree.

Which city Britons see as the UK's second city differs significantly depending on where they live, with belief Birmingham holds the title concentrated in the West Midlands, while Manchester is the top choice across most of the North and South East, and Edinburgh is the favourite in Scotland

56% of Scots see Edinburgh or Glasgow as Britain's second city, relative to no more than 10% in England or Wales England Manchester: 36% Birmingham: 32% Edinburgh: 9% Scotland Edinburgh: 36% Glasgow: 20% Manchester: 18% Birmingham: 14% Wales Manchester: 30% Birmingham: 28% Cardiff: 16%

I do think one of the killer, and undermentioned, stats of this year's locals elections is that the trend is such that, this time next year, Reform UK will very likely have more elected representatives than the Conservatives. And not by like 7, the gap in councillors could very well be four digits.

Because I think a lot of people still really haven’t absorbed how bad this month’s elections were for Labour and the Conservatives, resharing this terrific piece by @dylandifford.bsky.social:

If anyone is interested in an arguably overly thorough analysis of the links (or lack of) between voting systems and political stability, here's one I made earlier: makevotesmatter.org.uk/wp-content/u...

Quite a few people on here often express bafflement at the sheer unpopularity of this government, which was elected on a platform of getting the cost of living under control. Unrelatedly, Stagecoach have just informed me of another increase in Megarider prices, now 20% higher than in July 2024.

Some oddness about this, but has to be remembered: > Differential membership drop-out > Members not as high info as assumed > They incorrectly believe Ref are main source of losses > Most politically interested people have v poor understanding of electoral dynamics > Still tend to dislike Mahmood