You can catch me on this week's @thecourier.co.uk / @pressandjournal.co.uk Stooshie podcast with @justinbowie1997.bsky.social, talking about the prospects for each party in May, with a good bit more detail and nuance possible across a solid 20 minutes of chat!

Right putting this on blast: what we have here is a sitting MSP and cabinet minister deliberately misrepresenting the situation in their seat by pretending it hasn't a substantial boundary changes. One of many reasons not to use FPTP (and, indeed, STV) is the incentive for this bad behaviour.

By-Election Result: Bearsden South An expected easy Lib Dem win accompanies a Conservative collapse that is a terrible omen for the latter's prospects in May.

Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) by-election run to a Lib Dem vs SNP head-to-head (vs 2022): Lib Dem: 2652 (57.9%, +5.9) SNP: 1089 (23.8%, -8.0) Didn't Transfer: 840 (18.3%, +2.1)

Partly to get a new post to pin, a reminder that you can keep tabs on all Ballot Box Scotland analysis and coverage ahead of the Holyrood election here: ballotbox.scot/scottish-par... At this stage, a reminder that the most useful bit may be the Region Previews, which explain the boundary changes!

Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th - 14th of January 2026 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 64 Reform UK ~ 21 Labour ~ 16 Green ~ 11 Conservative ~ 9 Lib Dem ~ 8 Independence: No ~ 53% Yes ~ 47%

Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th - 14th of January 2026 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 64 Reform UK ~ 21 Labour ~ 16 Green ~ 11 Conservative ~ 9 Lib Dem ~ 8 Independence: No ~ 53% Yes ~ 47%

I think there are good democratic reasons not to have by-elections under STV but also it would spare me so much bother trying to get data that is should be published as a matter of course, and in many cases is

Oh, incidentally, the upshot of this by-election is that Scotland is currently at Vacancy Zero amongst elected positions. All 1226 councillors, all 129 MSP and all 57 MP spots are occupied. Given the number of councillors it's a real rarity to not have at least one pending by-election!

Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) by-election first preferences: Lib Dem: 1744 (38.1%, +14.9) SNP: 789 (17.2%, -6.2) Reform UK: 709 (15.5%, new) Labour: 650 (14.2%, -1.9) Green: 371 (8.1%, +0.9) Conservative: 283 (6.2%, -17) Family: 35 (0.8%, new) Lib Dem elected stage 5.

Very sad news that Jim Wallace, Scotland's inaugural Deputy First Minister, has died suddenly. Not only did he lead his party into government for the first time in decades, but he held down the fort after the death and resignation of the first two First Ministers. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Some oddities in this poll. From YouGov, they are notably the least Reform-favourable pollster at GB level, most recently at 25%. Yet this is currently the most favourable for Reform in Scotland, at 20%. I simply don't believe that: one of those numbers must be wrong, they cannot both be right.

New Scottish Parliament poll, YouGov 8-14 Jan (vs 20-25 Jun 24!; SCOOPs excluded): List: SNP ~ 29% (nc) RUK ~ 20% (+13) Lab ~ 15% (-16) Grn ~ 12% (+3) Con ~ 11% (-2) LD ~ 9% (nc) Alba ~ 1% (nc) Constituency: SNP ~ 34% (+1) RUK ~ 20% (+20) Lab ~ 15% (-22) Con ~ 10% (-3) LD ~ 10% (+1) Grn ~ 9% (+5)

On this front, I continue to feel utterly vindicated that I do not report on FindOutNow polling, given yesterday they published a poll with a sample of 143 respondents, and only 51 giving an actual party response, for this by-election, which was reported as if it were credible by some sources.

It's East Dunbartonshire's Bearsden South by-election today, the one that arose from the absolutely outrageous circumstances of romance fraud and embezzlement. Expect the outcome to be far less dramatic: if the Lib Dems don't win this, I'll eat a hat. ballotbox.scot/preview-bear...

You can catch the whole segment at the start of last night's Scotland Tonight on the STV Player - after all the party leaders got a short segment to set out their stalls. player.stv.tv/episode/4vor...

What are the polls saying? What does the campaign have in store? What could change in the 100 days between now and the big vote? Well if you're a BBS Superfan you'll be up on all this, but regardless you can catch me on Scotland Tonight this evening giving a run through it all!

State of Holyrood, 100 days until the election (vs 2021): List SNP ~ 28.3% (-12) Lab ~ 17.7% (-0.2) RUK ~ 17.0% (+16.8) Con ~ 12.3% (-11.2) Grn ~ 12.3% (+4.2) LD ~ 9.0% (+3.9) Const SNP ~ 34.7% (-13) RUK ~ 18.0% (new) Lab ~ 17.0% (-4.6) Con ~ 11.7% (-10.2) LD ~ 9.0% (+2.1) Grn ~ 8.0% (+6.7)

State of Holyrood, 100 days until the election (vs 2021): List SNP ~ 28.3% (-12) Lab ~ 17.7% (-0.2) RUK ~ 17.0% (+16.8) Con ~ 12.3% (-11.2) Grn ~ 12.3% (+4.2) LD ~ 9.0% (+3.9) Const SNP ~ 34.7% (-13) RUK ~ 18.0% (new) Lab ~ 17.0% (-4.6) Con ~ 11.7% (-10.2) LD ~ 9.0% (+2.1) Grn ~ 8.0% (+6.7)

100 days to go until the Holyrood election and I've just done my first "pulling up a politician for misleading claims in light of boundary changes", how appropriate! Another reason FPTP is a bad system: change of boundaries without change of name is confusing and ripe for dishonesty.

By-Election Result analysis: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie An absolutely dire result for Labour bodes ill for their chances in May, and not just because their share of the vote was cut in half.

Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs: SNP: 1167 (44.3%, -5.3) Reform UK: 725 (27.5%, new) Labour: 413 (15.7%, -16.8) Conservative: 182 (6.9%, -4.7) Lib Dem: 125 (4.7%, +0.9) Family: 25 (0.9%, new) SNP elected stage TBC.

I for one am extremely excited for the entire UK media to spend the next few months obsessing over a single constituency in the Westminster Parliament when general elections to Holyrood and the Senedd are rapidly approaching

First Scottish by-election of 2026 is today, in Fife's Glenrothes West and Kinglassie ward. The SNP seem the most likely winners here, and I reckon they could well find themselves facing off against Reform as primary challengers rather than Labour.

Poll Analysis: Norstat 13th - 16th of January 2026 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 62 Labour ~ 18 Reform ~ 17 Conservative ~ 12 Green ~ 11 Lib Dem ~ 9 Independence: Yes ~ 51% No ~ 49%

New Scottish Independence poll, Survation 8-12 Jan (changes vs 2-5 May): No ~ 45% (-1) Yes ~ 45% (+2) Don't Know ~ 10% (-1) Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014): No ~ 50% (-1 / -5) Yes ~ 50% (+1 / +5) Finally, it appeared

Poll Analysis: Survation 8th - 12th of January 2026 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 61 Lab ~ 18 RUK ~ 18 Con ~ 12 LD ~ 10 Grn ~ 10 Independence: Partial tables suggest was asked, but being held back by client for unreasonably long time.

This Norstat poll is so in the middle of Ipsos and Survation's efforts (in terms of the Greens most especially, that's where the most disagreement between firms lies) that these are also the seat figures for the current multi-pollster average. Convenient! ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...

New Scottish Parliament poll, Norstat 13-16 Jan (vs 22-25 Sep): List: SNP ~ 29% (nc) Lab ~ 17% (-1) RUK ~ 16% (-2) Con ~ 12% (-1) Grn ~ 11% (+3) LD ~ 9% (-1) Alba ~ 4% (nc) Constituency: SNP ~ 35% (+1) Lab ~ 19% (+2) RUK ~ 17% (-3) Con ~ 11% (+1) LD ~ 9% (-2) Grn ~ 7% (nc)

Thrilled to say that the goal on the BBS SP26 fundraiser has been met! A massive, massive thank you to everyone who chipped in and/or shared the link. Expect the BBS-exclusive poll in the middle of April, as the campaign hits fever pitch. gofund.me/c427d5a71

New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 8-12 Jan (vs 22 Sep-14 Oct): List: SNP ~ 28% (-1) RUK ~ 18% (-2) Lab ~ 18% (+1) Con ~ 13% (+1) LD ~ 11% (+1) Grn ~ 9% (-1) Alba ~ 3% (+1) Constituency: SNP ~ 34% (nc) RUK ~ 19% (-3) Lab ~ 16% (-2) Con ~ 13% (+3) LD ~ 9% (+1) Grn ~ 8% (+1) Alba ~ 1% (nc)

This is at 97%! If you enjoy the work I do here on BBS - and appreciate the fact I've spent basically my whole lunch break pulling together the figures for today's poll and updating it throughout the website - consider chipping in to help make up that last tiny little bit, would be much appreciated.

New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 8-12 Jan (vs 22 Sep-14 Oct): List: SNP ~ 28% (-1) RUK ~ 18% (-2) Lab ~ 18% (+1) Con ~ 13% (+1) LD ~ 11% (+1) Grn ~ 9% (-1) Alba ~ 3% (+1) Constituency: SNP ~ 34% (nc) RUK ~ 19% (-3) Lab ~ 16% (-2) Con ~ 13% (+3) LD ~ 9% (+1) Grn ~ 8% (+1) Alba ~ 1% (nc)

Skipping to one of the other devolved legislatures, if you are not watching the developing political earthquake in Wales, you need to start. A lot of the potential drama of the Holyrood election has evaporated, and good gods has the Senedd stepped up. www.itv.com/news/wales/2...

A weekend reminder as we look ahead to the election in May that there are new boundaries, most massively impacting Glasgow and Edinburgh. I have notional results plus an in-depth preview explaining the changes for every region here: ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...

This actually touches on something I have pointed out before which is folk are obsessed with the idea that more parties = more competition on the list = harder for everyone, which is a huge misunderstanding of proportionality. If (big if at the moment) 6% gets a list seat, it does so regardless!

It's a new year with a Holyrood election, so it's time for "experienced journalists at major outlets make absolutely bizarre claims about how the voting system works", hurray! www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Cannot emphasise enough how completely and abnormally evil the regime running the US right now is. If you are a Scottish or UK level politician and you are still trying to equivocate on this, this is what you are excusing: the cold blooded murder of a woman by nazi thugs armed to the teeth.

Now at just about 90% of the way on the Holyrood crowdfunder! I appreciate bank accounts will be rather depleted after the festive season, but so close to the goal and I have to keep telling myself that the thing with social media is you should be sharing regularly, so..! gofund.me/fc7aaca52

By-Election Preview: Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) 29th of January 2025 Romance fraud? Embezzlement? Alleged electoral fraud? An absolute corker of a tale behind this by-election, though the outcome will be less wild: Lib Dem win.

Bearsden South's criminally induced by-election (don't miss the preview for this one tonight, what a tale behind it) has the six current major parties plus the Family Party for our near-obligatory fringe candidacy. bsky.app/profile/ball...

By-Election Preview: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) 22nd of January 2026 Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour's current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.

Back to business after the holidays, the first by-election of the year for Glenrothes West and Kinglassie is only missing the Greens out of the major parties. For whatever reason, they've been pretty absent in the by-elections at this end of Fife. bsky.app/profile/ball...

Fascist US President 🤝 Fascist Social Media Platform The UK Government thinking everything is A-OK to keep continuing on as before with them. Never in my lifetime has there been such a gaping moral void at the heart of this state than right now. What a grim world we're now in.

Thanks so much to everyone who has made a donation to the SP26 crowdfunder, now three-quarters of the way to the goal! If you're already donating regularly via Liberapay, I've been adding those to the total as they come in, including a very generous one to start the New Year. 😱 gofund.me/092ede4a3

What better way to spend the last bit of Hogmanay before the pairtying starts than one last look back over 2025? Firstly, council by-elections: not good for Labour! Relatively reassuring for the SNP! A real contrast with 2024, to be sure. ballotbox.scot/2025-review-...

What better way to spend the last bit of Hogmanay before the pairtying starts than one last look back over 2025? Firstly, council by-elections: not good for Labour! Relatively reassuring for the SNP! A real contrast with 2024, to be sure. ballotbox.scot/2025-review-...

Exactly this. Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled. Between late September and Late November: - Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party) - Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history. - NI had 1 Westminster had over 40.

When I say "groundbreaking", these have been figures over past three years: Q4 2023: 50.3% Yes vs 49.7% No Q4 2024: 50.7% vs 49.3% Q4 2025: 50.5% vs 49.5% Which means this *even more hypothetical and just for fun than parliamentary projections* map just keeps getting the date and decimals changed

2025 in Review: Constitutional Polling A statistical tie between constitutional camps for an annual review? Groundbreaking.