Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share! gofund.me/cf862de1a

By-Election Result analysis: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor

It is a very good thing Tom Harris is no longer an MP. What a foul attitude to take to young people taking an interest in politics and the House of Commons making space to accommodate them, as any serious democracy should. "This lot"? A sublime encapsulation of the bitter ageism blighting politics.

Specific local circumstances counting against Labour here, but this is best Reform share yet in Scotland; beats 26.3% in West Dunbartonshire's Clydebank Waterfront in May, and 25.9% in Aberdeenshire's Fraserburgh and District one year ago today. (Yes, that's 3 attempts at getting OG post right!)

Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs: SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9) RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new) Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5) LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4) Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9) Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8) Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new) (Greens 2.2% in 2022) SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)

Polling day for Fife's Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election. Another one that comes in unsavoury circumstances following a sitting councillor's conviction, which could affect Labour's prospects. Overall though, a tossup between them and the SNP.

As an election nerd, I would like to congratulate the people of New York City for boiling the piss of the all the worst people in their country.

Glenrothes West and Kinglassie is indeed first scheduled by-election of 2026, on the 22nd of January. SNP had a near-majority of 1st prefs, but basically all available transfers were from Pro-Union side, so their final margin over Labour was 8%. Labour haven't always flipped such margins lately.

By-Election Result analysis: Stirling East (2025) The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.

If we do vs 2022: SNP: -2.3 Lab: +2.2 RUK: New Con: -16.7 Grn: +1.6 LD: +1.2 (-9.3% in non-returns) Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.

Stirling East (Stirling) by-election, first preferences (vs Dec 24 by-election): SNP: 808 (36.4%, +1.8) Labour: 530 (23.9%, -1.7) Reform UK: 517 (23.3%, +9.2) Conservative: 147 (6.6%, -5.6) Green: 141 (6.3%, +1.3) Lib Dem: 79 (3.6%, +0.6) (An Independent got 5.6% in December) SNP elected stage 6.

By-election today for the Stirling East ward. Given the SNP won a by-election here in December, and Labour are in a much worse position, I'm inclined towards the SNP being likely winners, giving them every seat in the ward if so. Would sort of defeat the point of PR!

U wot m8

Poll Analysis: Survation 22nd of September - 14th of October 2025 Holyrood seats projection: SNP ~ 62 Reform UK ~ 21 Labour ~ 17 Conservative ~ 10 Green ~ 10 Lib Dem ~ 9

Downside to coming up with new inclusions for coverage is then forgetting to, y'know, include them. I'm supposed to be highlighting how much the SNP are warping proportionality! AMS ideal (vs projection): SNP ~ 42 (-20) RUK ~ 27 (+6) Lab ~ 22 (+5) Con ~ 15 (+5) LD ~ 12 (+3) Grn ~ 11 (+1)

New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 22 Sep - 14 Oct (changes vs 4 - 16 Sep): List: SNP ~ 29% (-2) RUK ~ 20% (+4) Lab ~ 17% (-1) Con ~ 12% (-1) Grn ~ 10% (+2) LD ~ 10% (-1) Alba ~ 2% (nc) Constituency: SNP ~ 34% (-3) RUK ~ 22% (+4) Lab ~ 18% (-2) Con ~ 10% (-1) LD ~ 8% (+1) Grn ~ 7% (+2)

The 11th of December is the day for repeats of November 2024 by-elections, as that's when we've got Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Lib Dem win was huge last year but driven, in part, by the candidate. Nonetheless, I'd assume they're still pretty solid favourites barring a popular Independent.

Repeat by-election for Whitburn and Blackburn set for the 11th of December. Labour won last year's by about 5% over the SNP after transfers, which means that given their much poorer position now (polling about 7% lower) it's probably a tossup between the two. Also expect even better Reform result.

No elections in Scotland this week but this is very important content from Ireland in the race for the Áras.

The crimes here are very serious but when I tell you I have been waiting years to write the by-election preview for the 100% Fraud Types speedrun, I am not exaggerating. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Well ahead of GE24 (before Farage entered the race), I recall one Scottish Conservative MSP smugly tweeting how the UK's FPTP voting system meant we were the only European country without far right MPs. I pointed out at the time that it instead just forced them into our mainstream centre right party

Another Fife by-election coming up, likely early in the new year at this point, after the resignation of SNP councillor for Glenrothes West and Kinglassie, Julie Ford. SNP perhaps slight favourites here... unless Labour do something sexy and satanic? www.centralfifetimes.com/news/2555611...

By-Election Preview: Stranraer and the Rhins (Dumfries and Galloway) 20th of November 2025 An Independent with decades of service, retired, Conservatives, falling to bits locally, Reform... in with a shout? Call: Reform UK-Conservative Tossup

Stranraer and the Rhins is the six major parties, plus an Independent, and the fringe "Heritage Party" on the ballot. Most notable aspect of this by-election is it's the first time my finger in the wind prediction has Reform in serious contention...

By-Election Result analysis: Ayr North A local Independent managed to fence in his opponents to take the win, taking chunks out of all of the established parties, though a purely party affair would have narrowly went SNP.

The new boundaries for the Scottish Parliament are now legally set for the election. As a reminder, complete notional results for the 2021 election on the new boundaries are available here: ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...

No one expects the local fencing mogul! A classic here of the genre "as a national project, I simply cannot be aware of specific local dynamics and personalities in every case": turns out Wullie Hogg is a weel-kent face and should have been on my radar!

Ayr North (South Ayrshire) by-election, first preferences: Ind (WH): 850 (25.1%, new) SNP: 790 (23.3%, -22.5) Labour: 691 (20.4%, -3.7) Reform UK: 584 (17.3%, new) Conservative: 195 (5.8%, -14.8) Lib Dem: 73 (2.2%, +0.5) Ind (DP): 151 (4.5%, new) Ind (OB): 51 (1.5%, new) Ind Hogg elected stage 8

A by-election today in South Ayrshire's Ayr North ward; you may think this a predominantly Conservative town historically, but not this part of it. Expect either the SNP or Labour to emerge victorious, with a slight edge for the SNP.

Ash Regan, MSP for Edinburgh Eastern, candidate for SNP leader in 2023 and subsequently Alba leader in 2025, has now quit Alba citing it's "direction". She becomes an Independent and is re-standing as one next year. Alba's - never earned, only defected - parliamentary representation is ended.

There's an important point from Mark here; at BBS, I ignore "Remain vs Leave" Independence polling because the only people doing it are partisan organisations who like it because it favours their side. They're welcome to do so, but none of the rest of us have to give it any credence.

By-Election Preview: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) 6th of November 2025 Another by-election in criminally grim conditions, Labour's chances of beating the SNP may hinge on just how much transfer-unwilling Reform voters eat into their share

Four classic Westminster parties, plus new(er)comers Reform, plus Alba and Sovereignty from the fringes for the Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election; no Green although they'd contested the past two full elections in the ward.

And a topical re-share, given he got to his feet at Conservative Conference today for his speech, for my piece a few weeks ago: we're about five weeks on since I wrote this, and Russell Findlay is still the only Scottish Conservative MSP without a constituency. ballotbox.scot/tale-of-two-...

Another wee push for yesterday's analysis piece; if for some reason the inadvertently candy floss coloured map doesn't draw you in, there is a TL;DR version here, but if you do just read this screengrab you won't see my bit about Anas Sarwar's nightmares or a mildly spiced take on radicalisation.

SP26: Where are Reform's votes coming from? A longer read for the weekend, taking a look at the rise of Reform. If you're the Conservatives or Labour, this isn't good news. The SNP meanwhile lose few voters and benefit from the split elsewhere.

Based on September's Scottish polling, the short answer is: the Pro-Union parties. Relative to 2021, the Conservatives especially suffer, only keeping 50% of their vote vs 40% going to Reform. Vs 2024 though, and it's Labour losing half their votes. SNP lost relatively few vs 2021 and less vs 2024.

SP26: Where are Reform's votes coming from? A longer read for the weekend, taking a look at the rise of Reform. If you're the Conservatives or Labour, this isn't good news. The SNP meanwhile lose few voters and benefit from the split elsewhere.

Preparing a little something for this weekend's next pre-SP26 analysis piece...

Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd - 25th of September 2025 Holyrood Seat Projection: SNP ~ 63 Reform UK ~ 20 Labour ~ 19 Conservative ~ 12 Lib Dem ~ 9 Green ~ 6 Independence: Yes ~ 53% No ~ 47%

By-Election Preview: Stirling East (Stirling) 30th of October 2025 The SNP won a by-election here last year so seem likely favourites. They'd then have every councillor in the ward, and potentially flip the administration; real oddities of by-elections.

BBS was still finding its feet in 2021, but this election's leaflets are going to go from "it is I, Respected Scottish elections expert 💅" to "Not another one!" quite quickly aren't they? (I'd quibble that 2022 locals chart should be 29% and 25% but as Lib Dem Bar Charts go this one isn't egregious)

Just the six major parties for Stirling East in a month's time, no fringe parties, no Independents, all very normal.

Highland Council is apparently the anti-Crown: there must always be a vacancy. Following last week's double bill of by-elections, we've got yet another one coming up in Fort William and Ardnamurchan as SNP councillor Sarah Fanet is resigning. This will be the *11th* Highland by-election this term!

By-Election Result: Caol and Mallaig (2025) A ward that didn't even get to vote in 2022 finally has a say over its current crop of councillors, picking a new Independent over one that had previously had a go.

Stranraer and the Rhins by-election set for the 20th of November. Conservatives had a big lead here in 2022, beating the SNP 49.4% to 32.4% after transfers, but they have collapsed nationally and specifically in Galloway: their two councillors quit and now form part of the "Novantae" grouping.

New Scottish Parliament poll, Norstat 22-25 Sep (changes vs 27-30 May): List: SNP ~ 29% (+1) Lab ~ 18% (nc) RUK ~ 18% (+2) Con ~ 13% (-2) LD ~ 10% (nc) Grn ~ 8% (-1) Alba ~ 4% (+1) Constituency: SNP ~ 34% (+1) RUK ~ 20% (+2) Lab ~ 17% (-2) LD ~ 11% (+3) Con ~ 10% (-3) Grn ~ 7% (nc)

All seat projection methodologies are by definition imperfect but I really thought that GE24 had answered the "are MRPs a helpful way of doing this?" pretty firmly in the negative. You can use all the clever demographic data you want, if it's giving stupid output it's worse than basic swing models.

Aaand a by-election for Whitburn and Blackburn in West Lothian after David Russell, the Labour councillor elected in last November's by-election for the ward, has stood down for as-yet unstated reasons. www.heraldscotland.com/news/2549904...

By-election on the way for Dumfries and Galloway's Stranraer and the Rhins ward, after very long-serving Independent councillor Willie Scobie resigned for health reasons. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...