SP26: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 1-5 (+ West Region) #5: Edinburgh Southern #4: Dumbarton #3: East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs #2: Banffshire and Buchan Coast #1: Ayr Plus West Scotland Region

SP26: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 1-5 (+ West Region) #5: Edinburgh Southern #4: Dumbarton #3: East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs #2: Banffshire and Buchan Coast #1: Ayr Plus West Scotland Region

Isn't there just something incredibly fitting about the last day of the worst Holyrood term for platforming vile narratives about the LGBT Community since the "Keep the Clause" campaign ending with an MSP being chased down a corridor for views on their leader's homophobic joke? Couldn't make it up!

SP26: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 6-10 (+ North East Region) #10: Shetland Islands #9: Eastwood #8: Aberdeenshire East #7: Perthshire South and Kinross-shire #6: Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine Plus North East Scotland ballotbox.scot/sp26-battleg...

Long time followers fear he is once again watching a Danish election, with data available down to hyper-local level, in live time, on the national broadcaster's website, and wondering why the UK accepts "This is the total vote in this constituency. End of data ☺️" www.dr.dk/nyheder/poli...

SP26: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 6-10 (+ North East Region) #10: Shetland Islands #9: Eastwood #8: Aberdeenshire East #7: Perthshire South and Kinross-shire #6: Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine Plus North East Scotland ballotbox.scot/sp26-battleg...

SP26: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 11-15 (+ South Region) #15: Angus North and Mearns #14: Dumfriesshire #13: Aberdeenshire West #12: Moray #11: Galloway and West Dumfries Plus South Scotland Region

SP26: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 11-15 (+ South Region) #15: Angus North and Mearns #14: Dumfriesshire #13: Aberdeenshire West #12: Moray #11: Galloway and West Dumfries Plus South Scotland Region

Next week: this year's Ballot Box Battlegrounds series, looking at the most marginal constituencies in Scotland in 2021 terms, plus some key seats just outside marginality, and a bonus round of "not marginal but you never know"

Scotland was at vacancy zero for about six weeks: Lib Dem councillor for Aberdeen's George Street and Harbour ward, Desmond Buchanan, has resigned. Despite headline I don't see this troubling the SNP too much. www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aber...

Delighted that the UK Parliament has finally delivered on one-half of the principle laid out in the preamble to the Parliament Act 1911. At this rate, we can look forward to the "on a popular basis" half in around 2141. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Poll Analysis: Survation 20th – 25th of February 2026 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 64 Labour ~ 18 Reform UK ~ 18 Conservative ~ 12 Lib Dem ~ 9 Green ~ 8

SP26: Scotland’s right-wingers shouldn’t be dismissed or exaggerated Scotland was for a long time assumed to be resolutely opposed to the right. Whilst Reform's rise overturns those prior claims, some are overcorrecting their narratives, glossing over a lingering divergence.

Scottish Conservative candidate lists were published today; nobody formally or informally deselected relative to 2021 results, but of the 22 sitting MSPs standing for re-election, the current BBS projection is for a whopping 13 of them to lose their seats, and no new blood to join the group.

At the moment, for every 100 English & Welsh voters intending on voting Reform at Westminster, only 72 Scots are doing likewise. Combining with the Conservatives it's 66 for the right. That's still a lot of votes, but it's still a huge relative gulf in backing that makes a meaningful difference.

SP26: Scotland’s right-wingers shouldn’t be dismissed or exaggerated Scotland was for a long time assumed to be resolutely opposed to the right. Whilst Reform's rise overturns those prior claims, some are overcorrecting their narratives, glossing over a lingering divergence.

Joani Reid, MP for East Kilbride and Strathaven, reported to have given up the Labour whip. That means Scottish Labour are now on 36 MPs.

Poll Analysis: Ipsos 19th – 25th of February 2026 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 60 Labour ~ 20 Green ~16 Reform ~ 13 Conservative ~ 10 Lib Dem ~ 10 Independence: Yes ~ 51% No ~ 49% ballotbox.scot/ipsos-februa...

Stupendous example of the importance of averaging out polls: we've got two polls out over the past 24 hours, with (almost) identical fieldwork dates, one of which has the best SNP (33%) and worst Green (9%) list shares in the current average, the other has the worst SNP (26%) and best Green (16%)!

New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 20-25 Feb (vs 8-12 Jan): List: SNP ~ 33% (+5) Lab ~ 17% (-1) RUK ~ 17% (-1) Con ~ 13% (nc) Grn ~ 9% (nc) LD ~ 9% (-2) Constituency: SNP ~ 37% (+3) Lab ~ 18% (+2) RUK ~ 17% (-2) Con ~ 12% (-1) LD ~ 9% (nc) Grn ~ 6% (-2)

Guess which Pacific Quay based broadcaster I'm on tonight to talk about today's poll? No actual prizes for guessing, given it was an STV News poll and by this point I'm a Scotland Tonight regular - tune in at the usual time around 10.45ish!

New Scottish Independence poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (changes vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec): No ~ 42% (-1) Yes ~ 43% (-4) Don't Know ~ 13% (+4) Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014): No ~ 49% (+1 / -6) Yes ~ 51% (-1 / +6)

New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec): List: SNP ~ 26% (-2) Lab ~ 19% (+1) Grn ~ 16% (-1) RUK ~ 14% (-3) Con ~ 11% (-1) LD ~ 10% (+3) Constituency: SNP ~ 36% (+1) Lab ~ 20% (+4) RUK ~ 16% (-2) LD ~ 10% (+1) Con ~ 9% (-2) Grn ~ 7% (-2) news.stv.tv/politics/ref...

Poll Analysis: YouGov (Scoop) 11th – 18th of February 2026 Holyrood seats projection: SNP ~ 61 Reform UK ~ 20 Green ~ 17 Labour ~ 13 Lib Dem ~ 11 Conservative ~ 7 Independence: No ~ 54% Yes ~ 46% (Sorry, something odd about scheduling on BBS website atm!) ballotbox.scot/poll-analysi...

In terms of polls in the BBS tracker, this is the worst for both the Conservatives and Labour: their combined total of 20 projected seats is fewer than the 22 (21 accounting for boundary changes) that Labour alone won in 2021. Also on upper end of Green polling so take it with a barrel of salt.

New Holyrood poll, YouGov for Scottish Election Study 11th - 18th of Feb (no vs as exact figures for the last Scoop poll in October are elusive!): List: SNP ~ 28% RUK ~ 19% Grn ~ 16% Lab ~ 14% LD ~ 10% Con ~ 10% Alba ~ 1% Constituency: SNP ~ 34% RUK ~ 18% Lab ~ 14% Grn ~ 11% Con ~ 10% LD ~ 10%

Holyrood Polling Average end Feb, projected into seats (vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats: SNP ~ 63 (nc); 45 RUK ~ 18 (+18); 25 Lab ~ 18 (-3); 23 Grn ~ 11 (+1); 14 LD ~ 10 (+6); 11 Con ~9 (-22); 14 (Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

Holyrood Polling Average end Feb (vs 2021) List: SNP ~ 29.0% (-11.3) RUK ~ 18.2% (+18.0) Lab ~ 16.3% (-1.6) Grn ~12.3% (+4.2) Con ~ 11.5% (-12.0) LD ~ 9.3% (+4.2) Alba ~ 1.7% (nc) Const: SNP ~ 34.2% (-13.5) RUK ~ 18.7% (new) Lab ~ 16.2% (-5.4) Con ~ 10.8% (-11.1) LD ~ 9.5% (+2.8) Grn ~ 8.5% (+7.2)

Nothing to worry about but just in case there's any polling this week - I'm taking this week off BBS stuff so as not to end up burning myself out in the election run up! Will catch up on any bits and bobs next week, just good to have some time not staring at maps, charts and spreadsheets 🤓

Well, that's me finally proven wrong about Alba. I said they had no chance in May and I expected that to be the last time I'd even mention them. Turns out I can stop mentioning them as of March.

As an aside I have now seen *several* outlets talking about Labour's number one candidate on the "Lothian" list. Tout je m'excuse, the what list? Lothian? Doesn't exist past March, mate, you mean Edinburgh and Lothian East. Get on top of boundary changes, guys! ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...

SNP and Labour lists finalised this week; latter still to be published in full as far as I can see but top spots made it to media. For SNP most notable is Angus Robertson 4th in Edinburgh and Lothians East, below two former MPs not standing for constituencies. If he loses constituency, likely gone

Poll Analysis: Norstat 10th - 13th of February 2026 Holyrood seats projection: SNP ~ 64 Reform ~ 21 Labour ~ 18 Green ~ 11 Conservative ~ 10 Lib Dem ~ 5 Independence: Yes ~ 51% No ~ 49%

New Scottish Parliament poll, Norstat 10-13 Feb (vs 13-16 Jan): List: SNP ~ 30% (+1) RUK ~ 19% (+3) Lab ~ 17% (nc) Grn ~ 11% (nc) Con ~ 11% (-1) LD ~ 7% (-2) Alba ~ 3% (-1) Constituency: SNP ~ 35% (nc) RUK ~ 19% (+2) Lab ~ 17% (-2) Con ~ 10% (-1) LD ~ 8% (-1) Grn ~ 8% (+1) Third post lucky...

For those who remain absolutely furious that a project that takes the accuracy of reporting on elections very seriously would call out a sitting MSP for misrepresenting an election, note how both @devolvedelections.bsky.social and my own model put the Conservatives at circa 7% in Edinburgh Central.

Relevant to this: in 2024, a majority (51%) of those polled in Scotland by Survation for BBS backed party funding approaches that involved a cap on private donations, with 60% overall backing a system of proper public funding for parties.

The Cabinet Secretary is still publicly misrepresenting the state of play in his substantially redrawn constituency. Not only is the Conservative horse not in the race due to that party's collapse in support, but the boundary changes euthanised the poor thing.

Glasgow MSP Pam Duncan-Glancy has had the Labour whip suspended, meaning she now sits as an Independent. Given the few remaining weeks of the term and her stepping down as a candidate, I imagine this leaves Labour on 20 MSPs for the rest of this parliament. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

It's worth adding to this that there basically isn't another seat in Scotland that has the same incentive to be so dishonest. In 4 of the 8 regions (S, M&F, NE, H&I), boundary changes are practically nil. In the 4 Central Belt regions, changes are quite dramatic, but mostly not electorally so.

Very happy to give a formal quote and explanation of why this is so dishonest to any journalist (not, ahem, currently in my bad books for working for any of the particularly notable queerphobic outlets of the moment) who would be keen to write about it 😊

🎸Tell me Doctor, where are we going this time? Is this the fifties, or... twenty twenty two? 🎸 It has been four years since the leader of a Scottish party last advised their own Prime Minister, that they supported, to quit. ballotbox.scot/murdo-fraser...

Look, we all know the BBS position is "FPTP is a blight on our democracy" but it really is remarkable to be seeing hagiographies of, ahem, a Certain Someone coming out today that present 2024 as a stunning strategic play and not going absolutely nowhere whilst your opponents died a death.

You can catch me on this week's @thecourier.co.uk / @pressandjournal.co.uk Stooshie podcast with @justinbowie1997.bsky.social, talking about the prospects for each party in May, with a good bit more detail and nuance possible across a solid 20 minutes of chat!

Right putting this on blast: what we have here is a sitting MSP and cabinet minister deliberately misrepresenting the situation in their seat by pretending it hasn't a substantial boundary changes. One of many reasons not to use FPTP (and, indeed, STV) is the incentive for this bad behaviour.

By-Election Result: Bearsden South An expected easy Lib Dem win accompanies a Conservative collapse that is a terrible omen for the latter's prospects in May.

Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) by-election run to a Lib Dem vs SNP head-to-head (vs 2022): Lib Dem: 2652 (57.9%, +5.9) SNP: 1089 (23.8%, -8.0) Didn't Transfer: 840 (18.3%, +2.1)

Partly to get a new post to pin, a reminder that you can keep tabs on all Ballot Box Scotland analysis and coverage ahead of the Holyrood election here: ballotbox.scot/scottish-par... At this stage, a reminder that the most useful bit may be the Region Previews, which explain the boundary changes!

Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th - 14th of January 2026 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 64 Reform UK ~ 21 Labour ~ 16 Green ~ 11 Conservative ~ 9 Lib Dem ~ 8 Independence: No ~ 53% Yes ~ 47%

Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th - 14th of January 2026 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 64 Reform UK ~ 21 Labour ~ 16 Green ~ 11 Conservative ~ 9 Lib Dem ~ 8 Independence: No ~ 53% Yes ~ 47%

I think there are good democratic reasons not to have by-elections under STV but also it would spare me so much bother trying to get data that is should be published as a matter of course, and in many cases is