Forgot to update this when the news broke; with Foysol Choudry (elected for Labour in Lothian in 2021) suspended from the party and nominations re-opened for the constituency he'd been selected in this time, he's effectively been de-selected. www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinbur...

A Christmas reminder that notional figures for the 2021 Holyrood election on 2026 boundaries are available here, complete with spreadsheet, for any e.g. journalists keen to get a handle on the state of play in Scotland: ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...

By-Election Result analysis: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (2025) An easy Lib Dem victory, albeit with a weaker candidate that saw everyone else but Labour gain support, and a timely reminder of how Reform's support varies across the country.

By-Election Result analysis: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (2025) An easy Lib Dem victory, albeit with a weaker candidate that saw everyone else but Labour gain support, and a timely reminder of how Reform's support varies across the country.

By-Election Result analysis: Whitburn and Blackburn (2025) Reform squeak their first ever council win in Scotland as the Labour and Conservative votes collapse, and an Independent positions for a 2027 seat.

By-Election Result analysis: Whitburn and Blackburn (2025) Reform squeak their first ever council win in Scotland as the Labour and Conservative votes collapse, and an Independent positions for a 2027 seat.

Mentioned a few times at other recent by-elections how now Reform UK voters are unwilling to transfer back to Labour. If we re-calc this as SNP vs Labour, we get (vs BE24 / LE 22): SNP: 1356 (36.9%, +1.9 / -4.0) Labour: 904 (24.6%, -15.6% / -20.9) Didn't Transfer: 1415 (38.5%, +13.7 / +24.9)

Poll Analysis: Ipsos 27th of November - 3rd of December 2025 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 60 Labour ~ 19 Reform UK ~ 17 Green ~ 17 Conservative ~ 11 Lib Dem ~ 5 Independence: Yes ~ 52% No ~ 48%

Another point I made on Scotland Tonight on Wednesday, though given tight timeslot I didn't add that parties of centre shifting right on immigration is what raises the salience of such issues and then encourages their voters to vote for "stronger" voice on that. Result today further proof in pudding

First Reform UK win in Scotland; I expected them to do well but Labour really collapsed here beyond what I had anticipated. Transfer rounds will make for fascinating reading, though tbc whether I have time to look at them in between work and evening plans!

Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) by-election, 1st prefs: Lib Dem: 925 (40.4%, -18.5) SNP: 665 (29.1%, +3.5) Reform UK: 220 (9.6%, new) Green: 216 (9.4%, +3.4) Conservative: 175 (7.6%, +3.2) Labour: 87 (3.8%, -0.7) Lib Dem elected stage 5.

Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) by-election 1st prefs: Reform UK: 1177 (32%, +15.7) SNP: 1028 (28%, -0.9) Labour: 627 (17.1%, -13.8) Ind (Lynch): 484 (13.2%, +1.3) Conservative: 129 (3.5%, -3.2) Lib Dem: 102 (2.8%, nc) Green: 101 (2.7%, +0.2) Ind (Millar): 27 (0.7%, new) RUK elected stage 8.

If you missed me on the telly last night, here's a wee clip - you can watch the whole Scotland Tonight segment (this was the last of three) on the STV Player here: player.stv.tv/episode/4ulw... (subtitles are a bit dodgy, apologies, it was... a battle on Insta)

Poll Analysis: Ipsos 27th of November - 3rd of December 2025 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 60 Labour ~ 19 Reform UK ~ 17 Green ~ 17 Conservative ~ 11 Lib Dem ~ 5 Independence: Yes ~ 52% No ~ 48%

Oh no, guess who forgot to schedule by-election posts this morning?! Two up today, both repeats of November by-elections last year. Whitburn and Blackburn in West Lothian could be tight between Labour and the SNP, and expect a very strong Reform showing. ballotbox.scot/preview-whit...

Oh no, guess who forgot to schedule by-election posts this morning?! Two up today, both repeats of November by-elections last year. Highland's Fort William and Ardnamurchan is surely going to go to the Lib Dems, I reckon. ballotbox.scot/preview-fwa-...

Prepare your best Father Jack gifs and tune in to Scotland Tonight from 10:40 for more analysis of today's Ipsos poll! (I looked pure dead gormless here so yes that is purely the corner of my glasses and no other proof I was there, you'll have to put telly on to confirm)

New Scottish Independence poll, Ipsos 27 Nov - 3 Dec (changes vs 12-18 Jun): Yes ~ 47% (+1) No ~ 43% (nc) Don't Know ~ 9% (-1) Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014): Yes ~ 52% (nc / +7) No ~ 48% (nc / -7)

Best ever list vote and joint best constituency for the Greens here (certainly, of any BBS covered poll), though Ipsos do tend to be on the higher end. Worst Labour constituency share of this term. Alba such a tiny proportion of respondents they don't even register; was 2% on list last poll.

New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 27 Nov - 3 Dec (vs 12-18 Jun): List: SNP ~ 28% (+2) Lab ~ 18% (-4) RUK ~ 17% (+1) Grn ~ 17% (+2) Con ~ 12% (+2) LD ~ 7% (-1) Constituency: SNP ~ 35% (+1) RUK ~ 18% (+4) Lab ~ 16% (-7) Con ~ 11% (+1) Grn ~ 9% (nc) LD ~ 9% (nc)

Quite a lot of, simply, lying and unjustified valorisation of a nasty person on the front of papers today. Personally I put a lot of stock in honest reporting but I guess when I do such things as a hobby rather than my job I don't have to dance to the whims of the hate campaign gripping the nation.

On this front, a reminder that (in Scotland at least), people are very supportive of capping donations to political parties and supplementing / replacing it with per-vote based public funding. 60% supported public funding for parties and 51% selected options that *at least* capped private donations!

No by-elections (or, it seems, polls) this week in Scotland, but next year should be busy! Almost halfway to the goal for the BBS election crowdfunder to cover a poll and count day volunteers - huge thanks to everyone who has chipped in so far. gofund.me/2e4453605

This btw is kinda serious because, whilst I don't cover Find Out Now because anyone finding Alba (a party that, not intending to be indelicate, clearly died with its founding leader) consistently above 5% is obviously wrong, other sources do, and lack of polling diversity is giving a false idea

At this time of year, I start to think about my annual reviews, which include (for consistency of comparison year-to-year) an average of polls across Q4. I know I keep banging this drum, and there's a few weeks left, but Scotland is unbelievably poorly served by polling at the moment...

That MSPs are now openly saying stuff like this is chilling. "Controversial groups like LGBT Youth Scotland"? LGBTYS didn't need to be in my schools for me to be gay, but they sure as hell would have helped me avoid 9 years of fear and self-loathing if they had been. Despicable stuff.

What better way to spend part of my Friday off than... catch up with candidate selections? You can find known candidates for the current Holyrood parties on the regional preview pages linked here (thank you to those keeping Wikipedia up to date!): ballotbox.scot/scottish-par...

By-Election Result analysis: Stranraer and the Rhins The continued toxicity of Reform UK to other party's voters has them fail to convert a first preference lead into a victory, with the Conservatives taking the seat instead.

Reform narrowly blocked from their first Scottish win, though it's their best yet vote share up here and first time they placed first. Notably high rate of Didn't Transfers for this top two though at 68% of available; past 5 by-elections have been ~58%, 58%, 56%, 36% and 44% exhausted of available.

Stranraer and the Rhins (Dumfries and Galloway) by-election, first prefs: RUK: 1386 (35.2%, new) Con: 1302 (33.1%, -7.1) SNP: 541 (13.7%, -9.5) Lab: 239 (6.1%, -3.9) Ind 207 (5.3%, new) Grn: 141 (3.6%, 1) LD: 96 (2.4%, new) Heritage: 27 (0.7%, new) (Other Inds 24% in 2022) Con elected stage 7

Rarely go beyond my remit to share other stuff but especially given *gestures broadly* it does feel like this hits a few nails on their heads, especially in terms of being someone for whom Twitter was an essential launch point and then having to just chuck it because it became a heinous fash factory

If you value my work and appreciate the fact that I put basic human decency and respect for human rights over my potential income, I'd really appreciate if you chipped into said crowdfunder here: gofund.me/55e3a6cf4

Looks like I'll have to add two grand to my pre-election poll crowdfunder because I certainly won't be working with this rag again. Absolutely disgraceful, awarding a hate campaign that is out to destroy my community and kill my best friend like this. Shame on you.

By-election set for the 29th of January. A near three way tie in first preferences resolves incredibly easily in the Lib Dems' favour if we re-run 2022 for one seat, at 52% vs the SNP's 31.8%. Given the shape of the area, I'd expect the Lib Dems to be easy favourites here.

Polls open in Dumfries and Galloway's Stranraer and the Rhins by-election, to replace an Independent who had a whopping 33 years service. This has the very realistic prospect in my view of being Reform's first ever Scottish win, given the profile of the area.

Andrew Polson has been jailed for two years, crossing the threshold for automatic disqualification. A by-election for East Dunbartonshire's Bearsden South ward will therefore now be held. This has been my most hotly anticipated by-election for genuinely three years. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Thanks to everyone who has chipped in so far - already one-eigthth of the way to the goal!

By-Election Preview: Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) 11th of December 2025 A messy one to watch: likely tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?

By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 11th of December 2025 The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in. Call: Lib Dem Win.

Just the six major parties for Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Given Independents usually spice Highland by-elections up, this one is a much simpler call: I'll be astonished if the Lib Dems don't win it easy peasy, though they may not be quite as strong as last year which was partly due to candidate.

Whitburn and Blackburn's repeat ballot is the six current major parties in Scotland, plus a pair of Independents. Still think this one's a tossup but Reform are starting from an already very good place: if they really build on that, it'll massively damage Labour.

Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share! gofund.me/cf862de1a

Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share! gofund.me/cf862de1a

By-Election Result analysis: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor

It is a very good thing Tom Harris is no longer an MP. What a foul attitude to take to young people taking an interest in politics and the House of Commons making space to accommodate them, as any serious democracy should. "This lot"? A sublime encapsulation of the bitter ageism blighting politics.

Specific local circumstances counting against Labour here, but this is best Reform share yet in Scotland; beats 26.3% in West Dunbartonshire's Clydebank Waterfront in May, and 25.9% in Aberdeenshire's Fraserburgh and District one year ago today. (Yes, that's 3 attempts at getting OG post right!)

Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs: SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9) RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new) Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5) LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4) Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9) Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8) Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new) (Greens 2.2% in 2022) SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)

Polling day for Fife's Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election. Another one that comes in unsavoury circumstances following a sitting councillor's conviction, which could affect Labour's prospects. Overall though, a tossup between them and the SNP.

As an election nerd, I would like to congratulate the people of New York City for boiling the piss of the all the worst people in their country.

Glenrothes West and Kinglassie is indeed first scheduled by-election of 2026, on the 22nd of January. SNP had a near-majority of 1st prefs, but basically all available transfers were from Pro-Union side, so their final margin over Labour was 8%. Labour haven't always flipped such margins lately.