Consumer confidence March 2026: Personal finance outlook at a 28-month low

Always good to see scientists replicating previous famous findings.

A reminder: what council by-elections tell us about the changing political system

Local election seat projections for 2026

Huge swings projected by @stevefisher.bsky.social. Geography will play an important role in May. (Maps via @electionmaps.uk)

You know you're in big trouble when your projected losses in local elections look more like a historical date. (figs: @stevefisher.bsky.social via @stephenkb.bsky.social)

I really enjoyed returning to Past Present Future to talk about "political conversions" - starting with my favourite topic: interwar socialists who eventually embraced fascism

Today's Previews are now unlocked for free subscribers. Defences today are C 2 Lab 1 LD 1 Incidentally, I'm only a handful of people away from reaching a very round number of free subscribers ... so if you're not already signed up feel free to do so! You won't regret it.

Based on the current seat totals of each party, that would result in the following seat totals post-LE2026: LAB: 3,954 LDM: 3,399 RFM: 3,240 CON: 3,188 GRN: 1,391 Which would be insane.

You can quibble over the numbers, but from my vantage point in the North this general pattern looks very likely to pan out.

Honestly my first, second and third reactions to this projection are all just this: blimey.

My English local election net seat gains/losses projections for May 2026: Con -1010 Lab -1900 LD +200 Green +450 Reform +2260 electionsetc.com/2026/03/25/l...

UK says Chinese wind turbine maker poses national security threat www.ft.com/content/3bbf...

Three excellent things have just happened: 1) the Rycroft Review of pol finance has been published 2) govt is implementing key changes with immediate effect 3) those changes got cross-party support in the Commons. Careful scrutiny of the detail will now be essential. www.gov.uk/government/p...

New ban on crypto donations, cap on Brits abroad donating to political parties from today www.gov.uk/government/n...

It keeps on going

Energy bills are rising - and millions could be hit. Experts from Oxford's Smith School say there are 3 things the UK government could do right now to protect vulnerable households: 1. A social tariff 2. Emergency support 3. Help people access existing savings Find out more ⬇️

Finally, there is some evidence now that Reform's rise in Wales is plateauing

New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party PC: 43 (+19 from 2021*) Ref: 30 (+30) Lab: 12 (-32) Grn: 10 (+10) Con: 1 (-25) LD: 0 (-2) *notional results had the last election been conducted on the new system based on data from Dr Jac Larner

The central projection of YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Senedd election show a six point vote share lead for Plaid Cymru PC: 33% (+12 from 2021) Ref: 27% (+26) Lab: 13% (-23) Grn: 12% (+8) Con: 7% (-18) LD: 5% (+1) yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

Here we argue that predictions of local ‘chaos’ as a result of fragmentation may be misleading - given the current incentives of FPTP under bloc politics … We may instead be in the middle of a restructuring towards national fragmentation, local two-partyism.

scoop: Nigel Farage has abandoned plans for a Reform UK government to part-nationalise Britain’s utilities as the party adjusts to the country’s stretched public finances, although it is still considering using “strategic stakes” to fix broken markets www.ft.com/content/be4b...

My Cambridge lecture on the impact of Brexit has now been published and is available online. The major lesson I draw from it is that things that kind of work when you're saying them don't necessarily work in print www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

New post showing +2050 Reform seat gains in English local elections this year would be on par with last year, +1935 on par with local by-elections since then. Same pattern of gains from Con and Lab as last year means +2270. Polls suggest Reform may win even more. electionsetc.com/2026/03/20/b...

Resharing my new article “The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives” @eoghanly.bsky.social @muirismac.bsky.social @qubelfastofficial.bsky.social @ballioloxford.bsky.social @politicsoxford.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Brexit has likely done more economic damage than feared. Recent evidence suggests the economic cost of Brexit may be approaching twice the 4% impact assumed by the OBR. The Chancellor has signalled a shift in approach to EU trade, but the effect will depend on how far the govt goes on alignement.

Great book - here's my review, hot off the @lsereviewofbooks.bsky.social press!

Gas only sets Spain's electricity price 15% of the time. When gas costs spike it barely registers on the electricity bill. In countries like Italy and the UK gas sets the price 90% of the time. The difference is enormous. I spoke to @politico.com about this. www.politico.eu/article/spai...

With energy prices going up again, here is the piece I wrote after the 2024 general election arguing that energy crises have contributed to the demise of at least four governments including the last one, and both Johnson and Truss between 2019 and 2024. electionsetc.com/2024/07/05/h...

It's great to see the government trialling early voting in Tunbridge Wells, Cambridge, and North Hertfordshire in the coming elections. Ideas like this make it easier for us to get to the polling booth, which can only be a good thing.

UPDATED – Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world ✍️ @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org 🎨 Kerry Cleaver, Tom Pearson @tomoprater.carbonbrief.org Read here ➡️ interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...

There is an opportunity for the Welsh government to build on council tax revaluation with wider property tax reform. Read our full Welsh election 2026 report, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Reform UK’s proposed cuts to income tax would benefit high-income taxpayers the most. A full-time NLW worker earning £24,785 would save at most £80 a year from the initial plans. Savings would be £1,900 a year for those earning £50,000 and £6,400 for those earning £125,000.

NEW: “The combination of big tax cuts and implied benefit increases without any identified source of funding is not fiscally credible.” 📗 Read our full initial response to Reform UK’s Scottish manifesto here: ifs.org.uk/articles/ini...

New post showing +2050 Reform seat gains in English local elections this year would be on par with last year, +1935 on par with local by-elections since then. Same pattern of gains from Con and Lab as last year means +2270. Polls suggest Reform may win even more. electionsetc.com/2026/03/20/b...

New analysis from the University of Exeter’s Elections Centre by @hannahbunting.bsky.social and Michael Thrasher shows dramatic shifts in local council by-elections, with more parties than ever contesting seats and far fewer votes required to win @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social

Anyway, that's a summary - the full research and IPPR write up is here! Thank you to @oliverdwwhite.bsky.social @beccam-c.bsky.social and many others who worked on it & @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for covering in today's FT Inside Politics! (you should sign up!) persuasionuk.org/research/apa...

How real or not is the apparent backlash to Net Zero, clean energy etc in the UK? I have some new research out with @ippr.org today. Easily the most in-depth look at this! Review of existing polling, new polling and message testing, interviews with ambivalent voters, etc Here's a taster 🧵

A few little extra nuggets from @steveakehurst.bsky.social on the underlying data behind today's IPPR report on net zero attitudes - www.ft.com/content/161a... - you can sign up for FT Inside Politics here www.ft.com/inside-polit... (me today, usually @stephenkb.bsky.social as u wel kno )

UPDATED – Q&A: What does China’s 15th ‘five-year plan’ mean for climate change? ✍️ @anikanpatel.carbonbrief.org Read here ⬇️

Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk. 1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens. 2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s 3. Progressives were undecided til last minute www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

The new V-Dem report was released today. There are dramatic declines in democracy in the US. Much worse than during Trump I.

Just remember: no matter how bad you think this chart looks, it's worse in product markets (especially diesel). Happy new week everyone.

How does the American public react to events like this? Brush them off as a price worth paying or as deaths of religious/racial outgroups? Well, some do, but overall there is a clear negative effect of civilian casualties on public support for war. journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

“$100 a barrel for first time since X” discussions rarely adjust for inflation Which is odd Site here lets you do so, with mildly soothing results www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-o...

Green target zone in London borough elections in May

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 29% (-2) LAB: 21% (+2) CON: 18% (-2) GRN: 12% (=) LDM: 10% (-2) Via @survation.bsky.social, 5 Mar. Changes w/ 28-28 Jan.