Three out of four people worldwide consider themselves religious, but rates vary a lot across countries— Most people in the world are religious. When asked whether they identify with any religion, three-quarters of respondents choose one.

New Swingometer! With nominations now closed, and a few surprises in candidate selection, here's my first update on the Gorton & Denton by election. Also featuring a polling spat, dodgy bar charts, and Jason Momoa swingometer.substack.com/p/gorton-and...

Thoughts in the FT on why I don't like the idea of an automatic by election if an MP changes party - but understand why some people do, along with a possible compromise... How to deal with defecting MPs - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

In the midst of chaos, excited to share a new publication with @aeggers.bsky.social and Marko Klašnja, dx.doi.org/10.1111/lsq..... As usual, I write an embarrassing thread about my wonderful coauthors-- 🧵 (1/)

Too crude a headline, but a good introduction to Ted Meron's extraordinary life and memoire: www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/a...

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats. 🧵 on some of what it can do below: jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...

Had a great chat to @xavierbonilla.bsky.social about Islam in global history and you can hear it now!

I'm half way through the audio version of this and it is great...

Nigel Farage confirms Reform still intends to stop the Bank of England paying interest on QE reserves. Stephanie Flanders says this is effectively a £20bn tax on the banks. "This will be tough for banks to accept. I get that. I'm sorry. The drain on the public finances is just too great," he says.

NEW – Analysis: UK newspaper editorial opposition to climate action overtakes support for first time | @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social @sylviahayes.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/eAPkvkx

"European defence stocks are enjoying a blistering start to 2026, as US threats to take control of Greenland and tensions with Venezuela reignite a rally in one of last year’s hottest equity market sectors." www.ft.com/content/0bea...

"... Danish military leadership were concerned that the United States – informally and without involving Copenhagen – was trying to get Danish colleagues in Greenland to hand over information about military installations, ports and air bases in Greenland" www.berlingske.dk/internationa...

67% of Britons support retaliatory tariffs against the US if Trump imposes tariffs as a result of UK opposition to his attempts to take over Greenland Support: 67% Oppose: 14% Net support by 2024 vote Green +73 Lab +65 Lib Dem +64 Con +60 Reform +29 yougov.co.uk/topics/inter...

😱😱😱 (Source: HEPI - www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/u...)

BREAKING: UK govt secures record 8.4GW of offshore wind at AR7 auction round, for average £91/MWh (England) / £89/MWh (Scotland), roughly a fifth below the price limit www.gov.uk/governmen...

📊 Data update: Track driverless taxi usage in California California’s driverless taxis now transport passengers for nearly five million miles per month. Although they still make up only a fraction of taxi trips in the state, they are expanding quickly.

I found the analysis of the legal issues in this very helpful: www.nycbar.org/press-releas...

Country 9 in global oil reserves has invaded country 1 and arrested its president. Country 7 is under sanctions and its refineries are being destroyed. Country 2 is facing off with country 6. And there are riots in country 3. But oil is only $60/bbl. Maybe oil is not as critical as it used to be?

Harwell Campus is to light up the sky tonight to celebrate its 80th anniversary. From 5pm to 9pm, the UK’s most powerful display laser will shine from the centre of the iconic Diamond Light Source, creating ‘The Beam’, a vertical pillar of light in the night sky, visible across the county👇

Beautiful morning light over Broad Street 🌅 📷 Instagram | Juncao_Oxford (Photo taken earlier this week)

Carol of the Bells in # Kyiv subway. Voices of the Embassies of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom came together to perform Shchedryk in the Kyiv metro as a sign of solidarity with Ukraine. Thankful to everyone who stands with us!

Hi, have I pushed my new book enough now? You can pre-order it right away, and it'll be out in the world on 10 Feb! manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526146328/

New paper out with @stevefisher.bsky.social at @environmentalpol.bsky.social. We use @ess-survey.bsky.social from 2016-17 and 2020-22 to show how climate worry rose across Europe, and in Western Europe especially so for left individuals and voters of left parties. doi.org/10.1080/0964...

New paper, with @johnkenny.bsky.social, shows politicisation of climate change attitudes in Europe from 2016 to 2022 increased mostly because of greater climate consciousness among those on the left rather than less among those on the right: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Here you can listen to @psurridge.bsky.social and myself discussing "The British General Election of 2024" (available for pre-order now, for delivery early in the New Year!) with Mark. Was a lot of fun, thanks for having us on Mark.

Next week! 📢 We’re hosting 'Facing AI: Research Opportunities & Challenges in Today’s Social Sciences' - an in-person workshop with 14 presentations from scholars across the social sciences. 🗓️ 18–19 Dec 2025 | ⏰ 10:00–17:00 📝 Registration required: www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/event/facing...

Here's the analysis with @martamiori.bsky.social on which this @economist.com @matthewholehouse.bsky.social article is based: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...

Time to look behind another "British General Election of 2024" advent calander window. As is tradition in every post 2016 Christmas, Brexit is in the air, with speculation about whether Labour might push to move closer to the EU. But what role did Brexit play in last July's election? Read on!

This is a thread of quotes and curiosities from Appendix 1 of The British General Election of 2024 book by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social @patrick-pme.bsky.social and myself, available as a free pdf under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007... The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.

BGE 2024 advent calendar day two - who won the campaign last summer?

Double whammy of BGE 2024 advent calender posts today (yesterday was the department Christmas party). So far we have learned a little about the campaign - did Labour's tax pledges matter? (not really) How did the campaign go for Labour (not well). Now two posts on how 2024 changed the Commons...

This post by @samfr.bsky.social on the new book by @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @timbale.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social and @psurridge.bsky.social is as good as everyone says. Especially this point busting the myth of the Red Wall and the "hero voter". samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...

Lot's on the substack this week: My post on the key lessons from the 2024 election - including why Labour don't understand how they won; and how media/polling are changing. samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...

1000 times this. Thanks Cyrus I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution

UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me). There's so much useful info in them. The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!

It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.

Very happy to get a contributor’s copy of Britain Votes 2024 📚🗳️@louisevthompson.bsky.social @hansardsociety.bsky.social I wrote a short chapter (last autumn!) on ethnic minority voters in the general election, including preliminary thoughts on independents doi.org/10.1093/pa/g...

Looking forward to a much briefed bumper hamper of politics? No, not the Budget, The British General Election of 2024! We had a wonderful all star launch event in London last night, with representatives of all five Britain-wide parties, and now I have a special launch gift for you...read on! 1/?

Simply go the the Springer site for the book, and enter discount code "BGE25", and you'll get 25% off the definitive guide to last year's general election - with many lessons for the current mess we are in. Here's the website: link.springer.com/book/9783031...

You'll be hearing plenty more on BGE24 from me in coming days and weeks - I have a book to sell after all - but for now a little amuse bouche from the endnotes - *was* Liz Truss really outlasted by a lettuce?

From my colleague; paper here dropbox.com/scl/fi/55uok...

NEW – Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/ONGzk3a

This is why I wouldn’t put too much stock in current MRP results showing reform majority - voters can and do tactically co-ordinate as we saw last July with anti-Con tactical voting. Indeed, strong MRP results for Reform may help inform and encourage anti-Farage tactical voting.

Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result: PC: 47.4% (+19.0) REF: 36.0% (+34.2) LAB: 11.0% (-34.9) CON: 2.0% (-15.3) GRN: 1.5% (+1.5) LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2) GWL: 0.3% (+0.3) UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2) Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.

Judge Ted Meron's extraordinary memoire (A Thousand Miracles: From Surviving the Holocaust to Judging Genocide) available for pre-order with 25% off the RRP between 14th-17th October: www.waterstones.com/book/a-thous...

We're looking for new trustees! If you want to see more people cycling in Oxford and be part of making cycling safer, apply to join our board. We're especially looking for people with financial/ fundraising experience. www.cyclox.org/index.php/wo... #cycling #trustee #Oxford #makeadifference