This is why I wouldn’t put too much stock in current MRP results showing reform majority - voters can and do tactically co-ordinate as we saw last July with anti-Con tactical voting. Indeed, strong MRP results for Reform may help inform and encourage anti-Farage tactical voting.

Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result: PC: 47.4% (+19.0) REF: 36.0% (+34.2) LAB: 11.0% (-34.9) CON: 2.0% (-15.3) GRN: 1.5% (+1.5) LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2) GWL: 0.3% (+0.3) UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2) Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.

Judge Ted Meron's extraordinary memoire (A Thousand Miracles: From Surviving the Holocaust to Judging Genocide) available for pre-order with 25% off the RRP between 14th-17th October: www.waterstones.com/book/a-thous...

We're looking for new trustees! If you want to see more people cycling in Oxford and be part of making cycling safer, apply to join our board. We're especially looking for people with financial/ fundraising experience. www.cyclox.org/index.php/wo... #cycling #trustee #Oxford #makeadifference

This week on @cleaninguppod.bsky.social I was joined for a 2nd time by @hannahritchie.bsky.social. She's got a new book called Clearing the Air. 50 common questions about climate solutions? 50 little misinformation demons laid to rest! Hannah's is such a valuable voice. youtu.be/voLbbuPEWY4?...

If you’re on academia dot edu, let me suggest that you strongly consider deleting your account.

If you can see past Angela Rayner, PMQs, that Father Ted bloke, and Kim and Vlad, etc. etc., this, just out in @theconversation.com, on @zackpolanski.bsky.social and @greenparty.org.uk and its membership, might be of interest. 1/n 🧵

The lovely people @britishelectionstudy.com released the random probaility data which means we can begin to unravel some unanswered questions about turnout in 2024. A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.

NEW Yes, an incoming illiberal and radical UK government would have absolute constitutional power By me Substack: emptycity.substack.com/p/yes-an-inc... Personal blog: davidallengreen.com/2025/08/yes-...

Excited to share our new paper in Political Analysis co-authored with Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social and Mossaab Bagdouri! 📢 We introduce an open-source, computationally light method for measuring media criticism—a key marker of media freedom and democratization.

Hundreds of words from the BBC attempting to provide context to Reform’s plans to revive fracking and not once does it mention greenhouse gas emissions or climate change. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

At next week's RSS conference I'll be presenting a poster (a first for me...it's about time!) "Tetraplot displays of UK General Election results" shows how to graph GE 2024 vote shares across 4 parties in a useful way. Full PDF poster at: github.com/DavidFirth/t...

Local council by-elections, compiled by David Cowling docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Apropos of nothing, a reminder that German stock markets kept climbing in an almost uninterrupted fashion in the run-up to WW2. Investors are really, really bad at pricing serious institutional and political risks.

57% of Britons say immigration is one of the most important issues facing the country, the highest level recorded by YouGov's tracker since December 2015 Immigration: 57% (+3 from 16-18 August) Economy: 51% (-2) Health: 30% (-1) Crime: 22% (-3) Housing: 20% (+1) Defence: 17% (-1)

If you like local by-elections (and if not, why not?) you should be following @andrewteale.me.uk and reading his Previews, including one on Cranford open.substack.com/pub/andrewsp...

💷 'Council Tax is probably the most regressive property tax in the world.' @inetoxford.bsky.social and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social's Prof John Muellbauer proposes a two-part solution to the fairer taxation of property in the UK ⬇️

@sarahobolt.bsky.social is EPSS President & @simonhix.bsky.social is EPSS President-Elect. 👉🏽 Neither currently serves on the EPSA Council or holds any official position within EPSA. 5/

We believe there’s room for multiple poli sci conferences in Europe, just like in the US & other regions. 🔝 But if you’re looking to support a Europe-based not-for-profit member-led organization, submit your work to 1️⃣ EPSS conference: 📍 Belfast 📅 18–20 June 2026 📝 epssnet.org/belfast-2026/ 4/

EPSS was founded by political scientists who believe that the European political science community deserves a: ▶️ member-driven ▶️ transparent ▶️ non-profit association ▶️ that reinvests surplus funds back into the community. 🙌🏽 Support that vision? Become a member: epssnet.org/sign-up/#join 3/

A solar farm at Stratton Audley, northeast of Bicester, is to go ahead after the developers won an appeal against Cherwell District Council. The Government’s Planning Inspectorate concluded the visual impact of Padbury Brook Solar Farm would not be enough to justify refusal.

The percentage of Americans who have perceived global warming as a threat to future generations has grown from 60% in 2008 to 72% in 2024. Learn more: climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications...

The case for using "global majority" by institutions should be rejected unless + until it can be shown - most people understand what it means (most don't) - most people it is about would like it used (most don't) I find it a deeply incoherent fiction + a highly regressive term in some many ways

Not sure how many people realize that battery storage already supplies 30% of California’s electricity demand at peak. Batteries aren’t the future — they’re here now.

Reform UK and Green voters are the most likely to believe a government led by their party would make a "very positive difference" to the UK Current Reform UK voters: 55% say very positive difference Green: 49% Conservative: 28% Lib Dem: 27% Labour: 22% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Most Britons (57%) say a drastic change is needed to avert the worst impacts of climate change For now Britons prioritise reducing consumption to combat climate change (45%) over trying to come up with technological solutions to try and combat its effects (35%) yougov.co.uk/health/artic...

What geoengineering might Britons support to counter climate change? Planting forests: 92% Painting roads and roofs light colours: 62% Adding carbon-capturing nutrients to the ocean: 43% Making clouds whiter: 31% Dimming the sun: 18% Adding gases into stratosphere: 16% yougov.co.uk/health/artic...

Reform's wins are not a consequence of low turnout. @bwalker.uk writes 👉 www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

Some slightly more digested thoughts from me for @politicshome.bsky.social on what the local results might mean for the future. www.politicshome.com/news/article...

@findoutnow.bsky.social have consistently had higher Reform shares, they also tend to start with high don't knows which they then 'squeeze' with a follow up.The results are interesting About 1 in 5 Labour voters say they DK but when squeezed more say LD or Green than Labour though half remain DKs.

Roughly as many Green voters think we should leave NATO as Reform voters think we should rejoin the EU.

Green voters would like a Lab-Lib and Libdem voters a Lab-Green coalition more than Con voters a Con-Reform coalition. The Right in Britain can't even live with itself.

For a sneak peek of the chart I will be using in tomorrow's newsletter: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

This from our post election briefing is way of looking at Reform's rise. Of those who would currently vote Reform just 42% of them voted for the Party last year - attracting 2024 Tory, Labour and non voters. Or looked at another way their vote looks similar to a wing of the 2019 Johnson coalition.

So, you know Sadiq Khan's expansion of @london.gov.uk's Ultra Low Emissions Zone that supposedly helped the Tories win the Uxbridge by-election in 2023, encouraging Sunak to slow progress toward net zero and throwing Labour into a tizzy too? Well.... (Source: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...)

This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015. This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.

Updated for this year's AAPOR.

VOICES | How the votes at the local elections were spread will give concern for Labour as much as Tories, says politics professor and electoral analyst Sir John Curtice

The ward with the highest Reform vote, 65%, was in Tony Blair’s former Sedgefield constituency – John Curtice www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

What's the carbon footprint of using ChatGPT? @hannahritchie.bsky.social answers a #QTWTAI Very Small Compared With Most Of The Other Stuff You Do www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/carbon-foo...

I suspect it goes without saying, but without that 2.4GW of offshore wind coming online in 28/29, the CP2030 target looks...tough. And I'm being very kind with the wording there.

New post just out A fascinating guest post from @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social looking at Reform's performance last week. Are we seeing an end to two-party politics or its reinvention? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

The Conservatives and Labour together barely scraped a quarter of seats – but Reform’s victory came on a historically low vote share.

% vote from 2025 local elections, with adjustments for multimember wards so voters count equally. Reform 31 Con 23 LD 17 Lab 14 Green 9 All 1399 divisions Source: BBC For info on unrepresentative character of places with elections: electionsetc.com/2025/05/01/u...

My summary of the performance of each party at the 2025 local elections is now on Substack at open.substack.com/pub/election...

Predictably fascinating from Sir John (helped, of course, by @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @stevefisher.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social and @lottehargrave.bsky.social). Left me wondering how much Reform's success correlates with low turnout and vice versa? Guessing that might matter in 2028/9?

The Andrew's Previews debrief of the 1st May local elections is now up, containing a discussion of everything that happened on Thursday plus the winner of the Result Which Made My Jaw Drop award! Find out if you won at open.substack.com/pub/andrewsp...

I'd seen from @stevefisher.bsky.social and @markpackuk.bsky.social charts of the PNS over time but I thought it was interesting for something I've written to also have GE 2-party share. That bumpy ride as LDs and UKIP rise and fall eventually gets into sync from 2024 onwards.

It's hard to overstate the extent to which high government debt can bend politics out of shape. The reform crisis in the 1830s, Chartism in the 1840s, the General Strike in the 1920s, austerity and rationing after 1945 - all were linked to the politics of public debt.

Seven thing we learnt from the local elections www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...