Carol of the Bells in # Kyiv subway. Voices of the Embassies of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom came together to perform Shchedryk in the Kyiv metro as a sign of solidarity with Ukraine. Thankful to everyone who stands with us!

Hi, have I pushed my new book enough now? You can pre-order it right away, and it'll be out in the world on 10 Feb! manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526146328/

New paper out with @stevefisher.bsky.social at @environmentalpol.bsky.social. We use @ess-survey.bsky.social from 2016-17 and 2020-22 to show how climate worry rose across Europe, and in Western Europe especially so for left individuals and voters of left parties. doi.org/10.1080/0964...

New paper, with @johnkenny.bsky.social, shows politicisation of climate change attitudes in Europe from 2016 to 2022 increased mostly because of greater climate consciousness among those on the left rather than less among those on the right: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Here you can listen to @psurridge.bsky.social and myself discussing "The British General Election of 2024" (available for pre-order now, for delivery early in the New Year!) with Mark. Was a lot of fun, thanks for having us on Mark.

Next week! 📢 We’re hosting 'Facing AI: Research Opportunities & Challenges in Today’s Social Sciences' - an in-person workshop with 14 presentations from scholars across the social sciences. 🗓️ 18–19 Dec 2025 | ⏰ 10:00–17:00 📝 Registration required: www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/event/facing...

Here's the analysis with @martamiori.bsky.social on which this @economist.com @matthewholehouse.bsky.social article is based: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...

Time to look behind another "British General Election of 2024" advent calander window. As is tradition in every post 2016 Christmas, Brexit is in the air, with speculation about whether Labour might push to move closer to the EU. But what role did Brexit play in last July's election? Read on!

This is a thread of quotes and curiosities from Appendix 1 of The British General Election of 2024 book by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social @patrick-pme.bsky.social and myself, available as a free pdf under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007... The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.

BGE 2024 advent calendar day two - who won the campaign last summer?

Double whammy of BGE 2024 advent calender posts today (yesterday was the department Christmas party). So far we have learned a little about the campaign - did Labour's tax pledges matter? (not really) How did the campaign go for Labour (not well). Now two posts on how 2024 changed the Commons...

This post by @samfr.bsky.social on the new book by @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @timbale.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social and @psurridge.bsky.social is as good as everyone says. Especially this point busting the myth of the Red Wall and the "hero voter". samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...

Lot's on the substack this week: My post on the key lessons from the 2024 election - including why Labour don't understand how they won; and how media/polling are changing. samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...

1000 times this. Thanks Cyrus I’d put it almost more sharply: not always, but too often, researchers using survey experiments seem to think they’re making causal inferences when they are measuring quantities. confusion over the inquiry is v far from the spirit of the cred revolution

UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me). There's so much useful info in them. The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!

It's such a bizarre framing. Labour MPs think taking 450k kids out of poverty is putting the country first! That's why they wanted it to happen! It's not because they personally benefit.

Very happy to get a contributor’s copy of Britain Votes 2024 📚🗳️@louisevthompson.bsky.social @hansardsociety.bsky.social I wrote a short chapter (last autumn!) on ethnic minority voters in the general election, including preliminary thoughts on independents doi.org/10.1093/pa/g...

Looking forward to a much briefed bumper hamper of politics? No, not the Budget, The British General Election of 2024! We had a wonderful all star launch event in London last night, with representatives of all five Britain-wide parties, and now I have a special launch gift for you...read on! 1/?

Simply go the the Springer site for the book, and enter discount code "BGE25", and you'll get 25% off the definitive guide to last year's general election - with many lessons for the current mess we are in. Here's the website: link.springer.com/book/9783031...

You'll be hearing plenty more on BGE24 from me in coming days and weeks - I have a book to sell after all - but for now a little amuse bouche from the endnotes - *was* Liz Truss really outlasted by a lettuce?

From my colleague; paper here dropbox.com/scl/fi/55uok...

NEW – Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/ONGzk3a

This is why I wouldn’t put too much stock in current MRP results showing reform majority - voters can and do tactically co-ordinate as we saw last July with anti-Con tactical voting. Indeed, strong MRP results for Reform may help inform and encourage anti-Farage tactical voting.

Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result: PC: 47.4% (+19.0) REF: 36.0% (+34.2) LAB: 11.0% (-34.9) CON: 2.0% (-15.3) GRN: 1.5% (+1.5) LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2) GWL: 0.3% (+0.3) UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2) Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.

Judge Ted Meron's extraordinary memoire (A Thousand Miracles: From Surviving the Holocaust to Judging Genocide) available for pre-order with 25% off the RRP between 14th-17th October: www.waterstones.com/book/a-thous...

We're looking for new trustees! If you want to see more people cycling in Oxford and be part of making cycling safer, apply to join our board. We're especially looking for people with financial/ fundraising experience. www.cyclox.org/index.php/wo... #cycling #trustee #Oxford #makeadifference

This week on @cleaninguppod.bsky.social I was joined for a 2nd time by @hannahritchie.bsky.social. She's got a new book called Clearing the Air. 50 common questions about climate solutions? 50 little misinformation demons laid to rest! Hannah's is such a valuable voice. youtu.be/voLbbuPEWY4?...

If you’re on academia dot edu, let me suggest that you strongly consider deleting your account.

If you can see past Angela Rayner, PMQs, that Father Ted bloke, and Kim and Vlad, etc. etc., this, just out in @theconversation.com, on @zackpolanski.bsky.social and @greenparty.org.uk and its membership, might be of interest. 1/n 🧵

The lovely people @britishelectionstudy.com released the random probaility data which means we can begin to unravel some unanswered questions about turnout in 2024. A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.

NEW Yes, an incoming illiberal and radical UK government would have absolute constitutional power By me Substack: emptycity.substack.com/p/yes-an-inc... Personal blog: davidallengreen.com/2025/08/yes-...

Excited to share our new paper in Political Analysis co-authored with Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social and Mossaab Bagdouri! 📢 We introduce an open-source, computationally light method for measuring media criticism—a key marker of media freedom and democratization.

Hundreds of words from the BBC attempting to provide context to Reform’s plans to revive fracking and not once does it mention greenhouse gas emissions or climate change. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

At next week's RSS conference I'll be presenting a poster (a first for me...it's about time!) "Tetraplot displays of UK General Election results" shows how to graph GE 2024 vote shares across 4 parties in a useful way. Full PDF poster at: github.com/DavidFirth/t...

Local council by-elections, compiled by David Cowling docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Apropos of nothing, a reminder that German stock markets kept climbing in an almost uninterrupted fashion in the run-up to WW2. Investors are really, really bad at pricing serious institutional and political risks.

57% of Britons say immigration is one of the most important issues facing the country, the highest level recorded by YouGov's tracker since December 2015 Immigration: 57% (+3 from 16-18 August) Economy: 51% (-2) Health: 30% (-1) Crime: 22% (-3) Housing: 20% (+1) Defence: 17% (-1)

If you like local by-elections (and if not, why not?) you should be following @andrewteale.me.uk and reading his Previews, including one on Cranford open.substack.com/pub/andrewsp...

💷 'Council Tax is probably the most regressive property tax in the world.' @inetoxford.bsky.social and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social's Prof John Muellbauer proposes a two-part solution to the fairer taxation of property in the UK ⬇️

@sarahobolt.bsky.social is EPSS President & @simonhix.bsky.social is EPSS President-Elect. 👉🏽 Neither currently serves on the EPSA Council or holds any official position within EPSA. 5/

We believe there’s room for multiple poli sci conferences in Europe, just like in the US & other regions. 🔝 But if you’re looking to support a Europe-based not-for-profit member-led organization, submit your work to 1️⃣ EPSS conference: 📍 Belfast 📅 18–20 June 2026 📝 epssnet.org/belfast-2026/ 4/

EPSS was founded by political scientists who believe that the European political science community deserves a: ▶️ member-driven ▶️ transparent ▶️ non-profit association ▶️ that reinvests surplus funds back into the community. 🙌🏽 Support that vision? Become a member: epssnet.org/sign-up/#join 3/

A solar farm at Stratton Audley, northeast of Bicester, is to go ahead after the developers won an appeal against Cherwell District Council. The Government’s Planning Inspectorate concluded the visual impact of Padbury Brook Solar Farm would not be enough to justify refusal.

The percentage of Americans who have perceived global warming as a threat to future generations has grown from 60% in 2008 to 72% in 2024. Learn more: climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications...

The case for using "global majority" by institutions should be rejected unless + until it can be shown - most people understand what it means (most don't) - most people it is about would like it used (most don't) I find it a deeply incoherent fiction + a highly regressive term in some many ways

Not sure how many people realize that battery storage already supplies 30% of California’s electricity demand at peak. Batteries aren’t the future — they’re here now.

Reform UK and Green voters are the most likely to believe a government led by their party would make a "very positive difference" to the UK Current Reform UK voters: 55% say very positive difference Green: 49% Conservative: 28% Lib Dem: 27% Labour: 22% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Most Britons (57%) say a drastic change is needed to avert the worst impacts of climate change For now Britons prioritise reducing consumption to combat climate change (45%) over trying to come up with technological solutions to try and combat its effects (35%) yougov.co.uk/health/artic...