Dramatic swings in the World Cup probabilities after Brazil and Mexico were eliminated last night. England's chance of winning the World Cup has gone up from 5% to 14%, Norway's from 1% to 4%. Percentages based on live ratings from eloratings.net

Local Elections Archive Project: North Norfolk 2023 www.andrewteale.me.uk/1hpj

There was no World Cup update yesterday as I was out all day in Annan. France and Morocco are the first two teams into the quarter-finals, and eloratings.net live ratings give France a 78% chance of winning that match.

Local Elections Archive Project: By-election results 2nd July 2026 added www.andrewteale.me.uk/1lnb

The World Cup last 32 draws to a close tonight, and there is not much change from yesterday in the probabilities. 🇪🇸 have taken the #1 spot but they remain 3rd favourites for the tournament, largely thanks to a relatively hard last-16 draw v 🇵🇹. Percentages based on live ratings from eloratings.net

A full 2PP for this by-election is attached. If these votes had been cast in a 3-seat ordinary election, then the SNP, the Conservatives and Reform UK would have won one seat each.

That vacancy does not exist because we already have an Empress of the South (and the North, while we're at it)

Particularly funny given that the Vatican is one of the few countries that doesn't recognise the Beijing government and has full diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Either Aberdeen or Plymouth, whichever of those is bigger. I couldn't fit in a research trip for the recent Aberdeen South by-election.

Last night's by-election results: Aberdeenshire, Peterhead S/Cruden: counting today Bolton, Horwich N: Horwich and Blackrod First hold Ches W/Chester, Weaver/Cuddington: Ind gain from C Telford/Wrekin, Malinslee/Dawley Bank: Lab hold

The polls in today's 12 by-elections have closed and counting is underway in 7 contests (we will get the other 5 tomorrow). There's lots going on so make you're prepared for the forthcoming Hot Takes with Andrew's Previews: andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing...

Local Elections Archive Project: Norwich 2026 results added www.andrewteale.me.uk/1lqs

Local Elections Archive Project: Norwich 2024 results added www.andrewteale.me.uk/1jqs

The issue in Oldham is that the council is split between three evenly-sized blocs: Lab on 18, RUK on 16, and an alliance of C, LD and the Oldham Group (who are mostly Ind cllrs for the Asian wards) on 20. A majority is 31. None of the blocs are prepared to work with each other.

Last night Oldham council had a third attempt to elect a new leader and failed. They will try again on 15th July alongside Kirklees, which is the only other council whose administration still hasn't been settled after May's elections.

No shocks in yesterday's World Cup knockout matches, although England and Belgium had to come from behind to win. Mexico v England in the last 16 looks like a genuine tossup. Percentages based on live ratings from eloratings.net

Due to an error with the post scheduler, free subscribers will receive today's Preview at lunchtime. Apologies for the delay, hopefully it will be worth it.

It's by-election Thursday! 12 polls today, defences C 4 Ind 2 Lab 2 LD 2 PC 1 Horwich and Blackrod First 1 - or least that's what happened at the last election... All will be revealed in Andrew's Previews: andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing...

Local Elections Archive Project: Broadland 2023 results added www.andrewteale.me.uk/1hls

Local Elections Archive Project: South Norfolk 2023 results added www.andrewteale.me.uk/1hrj

France have now gone favourites for the World Cup after their demolition of Sweden, but that's largely because Spain and Argentina are yet to play their first-round matches. Percentages based on live ratings from eloratings.net

Tomorrow's Previews have gone out to paid subscribers earlier than usual because of the football. andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing...

Yesterday's elimination of Germany and Netherlands from the World Cup is excellent news for France, who were in the same quarter of the draw. France have now gone second favourite for the World Cup. Percentages based on live ratings from eloratings.net

Wikipedia suggests that it is a legitimate word but honestly, who came up with "centibillionaire"? Some American who has never used the metric system? It ought to be "hecto":

Five go back to the polls - not an Enid Blyton story but an essay on last week’s local by-elections in London. What did the voters of Hackney, Haringey and Ealing tell us about politics, elections and London? Quite a lot… www.onlondon.co.uk/lewis-baston...

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Canada are the first team into the last 16, but they will be heavy underdogs in the next round against Netherlands or Morocco. Win probabilities based on live ratings from eloratings.net Tomorrow's games: 🇧🇷 v 🇯🇵, 🇩🇪 v 🇵🇾, 🇳🇱 v 🇲🇦

Now the World Cup knockout bracket is settled, here are the winning probabilities for each team based on the current ratings from eloratings.net 🇦🇷, 🇪🇸 and 🇫🇷 are within a few points of each other at the top of the rankings, and there is a 68% chance that one of them wins 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 are some way behind in 4th.

Scarborough Armed Forces Day today. The Yorkshire Volunteers Band incl yours truly will be on the seafront at various points during the day.

Local Elections Archive Project: By-election results 25th June 2026 added www.andrewteale.me.uk/1lma

Turns out that Zohran Mamdani is a cricket fan. He's gone up in my estimation.

This needs a skeet of its own. In Boston: ducks (and ducklings) got cones. :) #SCO

Just a little joke I’ve been doing for years where I pretend he wrote it in various stations and people correct me, often with photographic or plaque-based evidence. Harmless fun. It was Reddish North.

Last night's by-election results: Denbs, Rhyl S: RUK gain from Lab Denbs, Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch: Ind gain from PC Carms, Llangennech: PC gain from RUK Merthyr Tydfil, Dowlais/Pant: Lab gain from Ind Rhondda Cynon Taf, Treorchy: PC hold Teignbridge, Dawlish SW: LD hold 1/4

Last night's by-election results: Denbs, Rhyl S: RUK gain from Lab Denbs, Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch: Ind gain from PC Carms, Llangennech: PC gain from RUK Merthyr Tydfil, Dowlais/Pant: Lab gain from Ind Rhondda Cynon Taf, Treorchy: PC hold Teignbridge, Dawlish SW: LD hold 1/4

ST HELENS, Haydock - RUK hold RUK 717 Hooton 631 Lab 598 Grn 154 C 39 Blake 36 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/itpx

ST HELENS, St Helens Town Centre - 1 Lab hold, 1 RUK gain from Lab RUK 460/419 Lab 436/391 Grn 146/112 Ind 71 C 41 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/i1px

STAFFORDSHIRE CC, Stretton - RUK hold RUK 902 C 871 Lab 448 Grn 213 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/izuz

HACKNEY, Dalston - Grn hold Grn 549 Lab 342 RUK 26 LD 24 C 10 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/it5m

DENBIGHSHIRE, Rhyl South - RUK gain from Lab RUK 297 C 167 PC 160 Lab 131 LD 10 Grn 5 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/it6w

EALING, North Acton - Grn hold Grn 804 Lab 642 LD 523 RUK 309 C 257 Ealing Community Ind 129 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/ipyv

TAMWORTH, Wilnecote - RUK gain from C RUK 618 Ind 290 C 162 Lab 152 Grn 109 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/ip2e

MERTHYR TYDIL, Dowlais and Pant - Lab gain from Ind Lab 356 Ind 215 RUK 160 PC 125 Grn 20 C 11 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/iq0w

CARMARTHENSHIRE, Llangennech - PC gain from RUK PC 483 Lab 338 RUK 283 C 38 Ind 11 Grn 8 LD 7 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/i7yw

RHONDDA CYNON TAF, Treorchy - PC hold PC 1147 RUK 260 Lab 164 C 27 Grn 23 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/i9vw

HALTON, Farnworth - Lab hold Lab 835 RUK 596 C 126 Grn 77 Libertarian 3 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/ixwv

NUNEATON AND BEDWORTH, Camp Hill - RUK gain from Lab RUK 460 Lab 400 C 84 Previous results: andrewteale.me.uk/i65y

Nearly all of tonight's polls are now counting or have declared - only Scotland and Brighton are leaving it until the morning. Here are your Previews: andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing...