Great column here as ever from @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social - Gen Xis the key to understanding Reform, Trump etc, not Boomers. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The discourse would be less annoying if everyone just acknowledged that some of what you see in elections, especially in the US, is just cycles of anti-incumbency

A great day for the golden rule of political analysis: when the right wins it is a resounding ideological victory that humiliates the left and when the left wins it is a precarious fluke that will surely end up humiliating the left. Conservatives are power’s landlords and the left merely tenants

Mamdani is important because he best represents one emerging theory on how left wins again: Clear targeted cost of living offer + populist rhetoric; comfort with naming enemies to get attention. Don’t abandon liberal causes but trim unpopular positions to keep focus of conflict on affordability

Not language to make my mother proud but basically sums up Budget I think. Full @persuasionuk.bsky.social research below !

That which does not defeat woke will only make it stronger

Key chart here from today's report and slightly messed the wording of the post up, apols - should read: while there is a penalty for breaching the manifesto, it's dwarfed by failure on public realm, cost of living and child poverty. Really wish BlueSky had an edit button!

Fascinating report out today looking at the choices facing Labour ahead of the budget - there are no good options but failing on core progressive goals is a much bigger risk for Labour govt than breaking promises on tax.

Alternatively, you can listen to me discuss it with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast today. End of thread! Sorry it was such a long one, but a lot in there. open.spotify.com/episode/3e4L...

Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this. TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab. 🧵

The biggest reasons Labour/Green voters give for not voting Green are all tactical, not values based. Elsewhere, among 'Reform curious Lab voters' still willing to re-consider, economic populist arguments registered best. For everyone else it's their connection with Trumpism.

Green party voters are the only voter group where a plurality say they have achieved less in life than they expected to when they were younger. Happiness = reality - expectations!

Continually amused by how low-rent every single corruption scandal in UK politics is

Some very useful stuff here on a topic where there’s a lot of froth and bad research. Basic truth is Gen Z men in the UK are simply not more right wing - in attitudes or voting behaviour - than older generations. They are less. Most of the intra-gen divide is young women getting more progressive.

The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies.bsky.social ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters. Updated estimates here:

No more hippy punching. Starmer decides to stop punching its own voters in the face www.economist.com/britain/2025...

wrote about a great writer thealexpress.substack.com/p/kaleb-horton

All that years of anti-climate/environment invective on Conservative right has achieved so far is create a wedge within their own electoral coalition. Those switching from Con to Reform are anti Net Zero, those that have remained are pro. Labour coalition meanwhile is basically unscathed.

Decent speech overall. First time I’ve seen Starmer confidently articulate a values argument against Reform, not just a narrow competence one. Potentially important juncture.

These are particularly critical points that should be much better understood, not just by the government but also by political commentators, journalists, and broadcast bookers.

In general the weird little clique of groypers, Anglo Futurists and other lunatics became quite influential because of three factors:

We probably don't talk about tactical voting enough. In a recent poll, telling people it's Lab vs Reform in their area took national voting intention from a 12 point lead for Reform to +2 lead for Labour. But - before Lab get too chipper - there's still quite a lot of uncertainty. Quick 🧵 here!

Another piece of (excellent) research showing that support for the far-right is never going to be driven purely by either 'culture' or 'economics'. Inevitably, both are involved - and they're often inseparable.

I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

Fun fact: left-of-centre parties have won a higher % of the vote than right-of-centre parties in every UK general election in the last 45 years bar one. Worth remembering in light of the British right’s continued ability to set the terms of debate even when not in office.

Tables for this are pretty telling. Labour 2024 vote: Still Lab - 33% (!) Don't know - 27% Plaid - 14% Reform - 8% Green - 6% LD - 5% Other - 3% Meanwhile, Reform crushing Tory vote - taking 41% (!) of it - plus non-voters I suspect. Extreme version of what's happening in England.

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

At some point the Govt is going to have to have a values argument with Reform and the radical right. Am not sure “we will manage Cabinet committee meetings better than them” is really going to cut it.

Carbon emissions from oil giants directly linked to dozens of deadly heatwaves for first time

Somewhat sensationalist headline here obscures some really interesting research - which tallies with other available tracking data - on shifting attitudes to climate in the UK. Below are a few quick thoughts on how to understand this, in my view 👇 t.co/gDqlQgQBHn

Tell me if I’m wrong but sensing a clear pattern now of centre-left parties surviving against the odds through either: (a) a ruthless often populist focus on cost-of-living (Norway, Spain) (b) painting their opponents in with Trump (Canada, Oz) (c) some combination of both (Mamdani)

If Britain is headed for civil war, it’s one where the two warring factions will be led by men who say bosh on the internet. A fitting tribute to our great history. ❤️

Great graph here from MiC/ @luketryl.bsky.social which shows you how important issue salience could be to the next election. Reform’s coalition is the exact opposite of Labour: united on culture and divided on economics.

Labour had 9.7 million voters in July 2024. 2 million (20%) now don't know, but haven't chosen a rival. These prefer Lab & centre-left to right 2.6 million to centre/left (27%) 900k Labour to LD (9%) 800k Labour to Green (8%) 900k across others (9%) 800k Lab 2024 to Reform (8%) A sliver to Cons

Perfect example of challenge for Govts comms here. Starmer’s full comments were reasonable & where most normie’s are. But in a febrile modern media environment/attention economy, only one half of your equivocation will reach voters, and - unfairly or not - you wind up looking a bit of a pillock.

The interesting Q re: Polanski taking over the Greens is whether they can keep their strategic ambiguity that has allowed them to win in both progressive and nimby/Tory/conservationist areas.

This is my flag.

Another one where Tice’s ideological obsessions (and ties to fossil fuel industry) create weaknesses for Reform. If anyone has the confidence to go after them on it… www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

What if this is how ALL elite opinion worked What if social media has made the problem a hundred times worse What if fear of leaving a safe consensus around complacency is why no one in power will so much as react to obvious emergencies What if that’s basically why society has gone insane

Worth relistening to @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and my chat with @steveakehurst.bsky.social on the @newstatesman.com podcast who did a clinical trial-style experiment on what messaging against Reform UK worked among a cross-section of voters:

The central fact of British politics right now is the rapid radicalisation of the centre-right. I’m really not sure traditional institutions (the BBC, the Labour Party) are set up to respond to it properly.

Some people on the left have argued politics is destined to become 'blame the migrants vs blame the rich'. Fair or not, this binary turns out to be a surprisingly useful question for dividing the country right down the middle! Look at the generational splits, madness.

For Labour defectors to left parties, their discontent with the government is more about values than competence or delivery (they think govt is too right wing). For defectors to Reform/Con and defectors at large, it's more about valence.

Again: shock.

Similar to some testing we did in April, where governing with stability and steadiness just trumps 'deliver change even if disruptive'. Lab / Lib Dem / Green all wanted the later by around 2:1, Reform wanted the former by the same margin.

This surprised me a bit. Most voters say they prefer a consensus seeker PM over a disruptor. Reform base the exception. Given insurgents are increasingly rewarded in media, are voters just not being honest (revealed pref vs stated), or is it just journos are increasingly just addicted to drama?

Enjoyably French excerpt from a recent focus group with swing voters in the city of Tours: "Governments are disconnected from reality, creating elitist schools. They don’t even know the price of a chocolate croissant, which shows there are two Frances" Slightly more glamorous than a pint of milk

Which attack lines against Reform might actually work? Fascinating discussion with @steveakehurst.bsky.social - political strategists, listen in!

This is fascinating research - Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them. Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to? Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want. strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...