I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

Fun fact: left-of-centre parties have won a higher % of the vote than right-of-centre parties in every UK general election in the last 45 years bar one. Worth remembering in light of the British right’s continued ability to set the terms of debate even when not in office.

Tables for this are pretty telling. Labour 2024 vote: Still Lab - 33% (!) Don't know - 27% Plaid - 14% Reform - 8% Green - 6% LD - 5% Other - 3% Meanwhile, Reform crushing Tory vote - taking 41% (!) of it - plus non-voters I suspect. Extreme version of what's happening in England.

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024: - How many are still with the party? - How many have left? - Why might that be? TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

At some point the Govt is going to have to have a values argument with Reform and the radical right. Am not sure “we will manage Cabinet committee meetings better than them” is really going to cut it.

Carbon emissions from oil giants directly linked to dozens of deadly heatwaves for first time

Somewhat sensationalist headline here obscures some really interesting research - which tallies with other available tracking data - on shifting attitudes to climate in the UK. Below are a few quick thoughts on how to understand this, in my view 👇 t.co/gDqlQgQBHn

Tell me if I’m wrong but sensing a clear pattern now of centre-left parties surviving against the odds through either: (a) a ruthless often populist focus on cost-of-living (Norway, Spain) (b) painting their opponents in with Trump (Canada, Oz) (c) some combination of both (Mamdani)

If Britain is headed for civil war, it’s one where the two warring factions will be led by men who say bosh on the internet. A fitting tribute to our great history. ❤️

Great graph here from MiC/ @luketryl.bsky.social which shows you how important issue salience could be to the next election. Reform’s coalition is the exact opposite of Labour: united on culture and divided on economics.

Labour had 9.7 million voters in July 2024. 2 million (20%) now don't know, but haven't chosen a rival. These prefer Lab & centre-left to right 2.6 million to centre/left (27%) 900k Labour to LD (9%) 800k Labour to Green (8%) 900k across others (9%) 800k Lab 2024 to Reform (8%) A sliver to Cons

Perfect example of challenge for Govts comms here. Starmer’s full comments were reasonable & where most normie’s are. But in a febrile modern media environment/attention economy, only one half of your equivocation will reach voters, and - unfairly or not - you wind up looking a bit of a pillock.

The interesting Q re: Polanski taking over the Greens is whether they can keep their strategic ambiguity that has allowed them to win in both progressive and nimby/Tory/conservationist areas.

This is my flag.

Another one where Tice’s ideological obsessions (and ties to fossil fuel industry) create weaknesses for Reform. If anyone has the confidence to go after them on it… www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

What if this is how ALL elite opinion worked What if social media has made the problem a hundred times worse What if fear of leaving a safe consensus around complacency is why no one in power will so much as react to obvious emergencies What if that’s basically why society has gone insane

Worth relistening to @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and my chat with @steveakehurst.bsky.social on the @newstatesman.com podcast who did a clinical trial-style experiment on what messaging against Reform UK worked among a cross-section of voters:

The central fact of British politics right now is the rapid radicalisation of the centre-right. I’m really not sure traditional institutions (the BBC, the Labour Party) are set up to respond to it properly.

Some people on the left have argued politics is destined to become 'blame the migrants vs blame the rich'. Fair or not, this binary turns out to be a surprisingly useful question for dividing the country right down the middle! Look at the generational splits, madness.

For Labour defectors to left parties, their discontent with the government is more about values than competence or delivery (they think govt is too right wing). For defectors to Reform/Con and defectors at large, it's more about valence.

Again: shock.

Similar to some testing we did in April, where governing with stability and steadiness just trumps 'deliver change even if disruptive'. Lab / Lib Dem / Green all wanted the later by around 2:1, Reform wanted the former by the same margin.

This surprised me a bit. Most voters say they prefer a consensus seeker PM over a disruptor. Reform base the exception. Given insurgents are increasingly rewarded in media, are voters just not being honest (revealed pref vs stated), or is it just journos are increasingly just addicted to drama?

Enjoyably French excerpt from a recent focus group with swing voters in the city of Tours: "Governments are disconnected from reality, creating elitist schools. They don’t even know the price of a chocolate croissant, which shows there are two Frances" Slightly more glamorous than a pint of milk

Which attack lines against Reform might actually work? Fascinating discussion with @steveakehurst.bsky.social - political strategists, listen in!

This is fascinating research - Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them. Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to? Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want. strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...

Ed Miliband to tell MPs who reject net zero policies they are betraying future generations

“Brazil belongs to Brazilians” Lula is struggling in the polls ahead of next years election. But now the latest centre-left/left incumbent to be given the gift of a Trump intervention.

Excellent Martin Wolf column on.ft.com/403z3jZ The roots of the British malaise lie in a sick economy

Enjoyed talking to @markpackuk.bsky.social about what's happening to the Labour vote, the various theories of what the government does about it, and much more on his great podcast. The perfect backdrop next time you're washing the dishes.... open.spotify.com/episode/44js...

Er, another thing that might help govt - these people are just consistently a bit hopeless !

Most important fact of GE24 was a highly efficient left bloc vote and fractured right. Right now we’re drifting to a place where there’s max 2 parties of the right - with one quickly consolidating… And four parties of the left - six if you count SNP and Plaid - all eating each others vote.

What is Britain's elusive 'national character'? The Ballad of Wallis Island might just tell us | Gaby Hinsliff

Saw the Ballard of Wallace Island tonight and it's as beautiful as the reviews have been saying. Really funny, tender and heartbreaking - had no idea Tim key could be as moving as that, just a wonderful performance.

There are a lot of fundamentally unserious dipshits around, but what sets Musk apart is he has destroyed US foreign aid around the globe and authored probably three dozen other similarly serious real world catastrophes.

What policy achievements would make defectors from Labour more positive about the Govt? Depends which group. NHS & energy bills unite, but beyond that: Defectors to Reform = small boats Defectors to the left = taxing the rich, child poverty, Gaza. via Opinium

If you're looking for a weekend read, I think our study on who is turning their backs on Labour and why is quite interesting: yougov.co.uk/politics/art... But to add some extra notes...🧵

One other consequence of Labour's hyper-efficient victory: many MPs with tiny majorities who wager they may be looking for a job back in NGO land after next election. Doesn't just release them to vote with conscience, it means they dont want to burn bridges with activist world.

Millennial rage very underrated as a political force - not to be messed with. Underrated part of what did for the Tories last year, in more grad heavy parts of the country, also.

I guess nobody in the UK is still up for it but Zohran Mamdani - a populist left outsider - is absolutely wiping the floor with Andrew Coumo in the NYC Mayoral primary. Feels like a bit of a ‘moment’ for the Democrats

faintly amusing case study in the limitations of self-reported awareness questions in polls: About 38% of the British public claim to be aware of my great grandfather, 20% so much they've a view on his performance as a politician. He's been dead for 60 years, and was an insurance salesman !

No idea why Farage chose to make this intervention now, he really can’t help himself. Le Pen, Meloni etc would simply not be this daft.

"I'm getting a lot of pre Iraq war vibes" we get it, your 43

Its very funny he wrote this after trump had already been president. Its like you calling the scammer and giving them your info for no particular reason

Carswell has changed enormously. Defected to Ukip tactically in 2014 as a pro-migration libertarian who wanted to keep Farage's "nativism" out of the 2016 referendum campaign, arguing Leave must ditch Powellism to win Now in Mississippi as a pro-AfD advocate of racist deportations of legal migrants

Today’s episode of The Ezra Klein Show. Representative Sarah McBride reckons with the trans rights movement’s shortcomings, and how to win hearts and minds through a politics of grace. open.spotify.com/episode/1Ryl... youtu.be/KlbNFsAGFRc?...

Fascinating profile of Keir Starmer that gets at the contradictions of Britain, and of the monumental task Starmer faces www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...

What outcomes would most give Labour defectors since GE2024 a more positive impression of the government? Some areas of difference: small boats for Reform defectors; poverty, taxing the rich & Gaza for left defectors. Some unity: NHS and energy bills. (caveat: prompted list!)

Particularly striking quote in @patrickmaguire.bsky.social ‘s interesting column today. www.thetimes.com/article/df83...