This has all the makings of a classic TACO. A big claim. A specific deadline. Consequences he's not thought through. Iran is not going to relax its restrictions in response to threats when it can see the effect its blockade is having. It may well not believe them anyway.

US gasoline prices are up by about 85% on the start of the year, most of which has come since the risk of a US-Iran war became critical. This is very much not what Trump promised his voters, or, presumably, intended - and is no doubt driving his thinking now. As Iran will have noticed.

Bets on Trump lifting oil sanctions on Iran actually being "narrowly tailored" and "short-term"? Tehran now knows that its economic choke on Hormuz is translating into material gains for itself, and substantial pain for Trump, who is caving to it. What incentive do they have to lift the blockade?

Weak and the wrong call when Trump is trying to coerce countries who he didn't even bother to inform about starting the war, into clearing up the mess he's created. Let him do it.

I don't think this is an either/or. Commodities, inflation, growth (or lack of), mortgage rates, govt deficits and debt, bond prices, banking consequences. It all links together. Problems in one area feed into all sorts of others.

Completely unacceptable language from Trump which is becoming far too normalised. HMG should demand an immediate, public, retraction. If it doesn't come, the USAF can sod off out of Britain.

Interesting poll. Certainly Reform would perform far worse under AV or STV (ranked preference voting), but the outcome would still be very messy. A lot turns under AV on the order candidates are eliminated in. No point piling up second preferences if you're already out.

@iandunt.bsky.social great substack this morning, Ian! I commissioned a ranked preference poll at the weekend, and it confirms the Australian system would absolutely obliterate Reform’s electoral prospects. Labour would have to radically up their game as well.

Donald Trump is discovering, as Boris Johnson did before him, that being in control of the media's agenda is no substitute for actually being in control of events.

Trump & friends now thinking of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. I'm sure that'll have them quaking in Tehran. And it won't at all incentivise the regime to intensify their attacks on other Gulf states: more money for them, more pain for the MAGA base.

A dominant political culture becomes an expectation. Democracy, freedoms and the rule of law advanced *across the world* in part because of revolutions demanding them but also because they became the global norms on how countries were expected to run. So now with the retreat of those same values.

A return to the Single Market would be good but it's still the silver medal.

Zack is confused. Yes, inflation often does lead to higher short-term interest rates but not necessarily longer-term ones if the markets believe the inflation is temporary and the govt will get a grip on it. By contrast, large-scale spending funded by borrowing *will* push govt borrowing costs up.

And, unsurprisingly, merely in response to threats, never mind attacks, the markets respond by pushing oil (Brent measure) up to $108/barrel. War is not a computer game and the country you attack can devise its own strategy in response - a point Hegseth and Trump are only getting slowly.

Rayner is right. Rayner is also - intentionally or not - aligning herself with the Labour membership on this, which will be helpful in any coming leadership election.

As I was saying ... www.bbc.co.uk/sport/footba...

Israel certainly doing its best to ensure Trump can't do a deal with Iran. You wonder at what point Trump will realise he's been played for a dupe.

Perhaps the tooled up, psychotic forces of ICE could be redeployed to the Straits of Hormuz. It would solve many problems.

Excessive haste in a politician is certainly to be treated with the caution they abhor. On the other hand, excessive caution and a lack of vision is not to be applauded. A prime requirement for leadership is, in fact, leadership.

I do think a UK politics account should at least have a note to say this isn't a leadership style, it's how cabinet governance works

Epic fury. "Fury", as per OED: 1 a wild and passionate anger, rage. b a fit of rage. It really is just Operation Trump Tantrum. That's the name.

Trump threatening NATO here with what is currently a best-case scenario. He thinks NATO depends on the US, so he can leverage that reliance into support for what he wants. In reality, Trump is so selfish and unreliable that American guarantees against Russia mean nothing. It's better without him.

This is a superb article. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Another example for my 'Market Traders are Being Far Too Complacent About Iran' file. Big disconnect between investors and purchasers of actual oil.

This was a bloody good speech. Strikes absolutely the right balance between internationalism and self-reliance, between individual choice and necessary regulation, and between a positive vision and a critique of the present. Principled, pragmatic, positive.

HMG should tell Trump to get stuffed. He got the world into this mess, didn't consult anyone is flagrantly and repeatedly breaking international law. That comes with consequences, which he needs to learn the hard way. If Britain participates, we get drawn into Trump's war without influence.

An historic humiliation for the United States. Trump is so deranged he will not realise this.

Trump won't care about words (well, he will because he has a very thin skin, but it's not the most important thing). If Trump aligning with Russia really matters - and it does - then Europe needs to reflect that in policy. Deny the US access to European bases. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

It's a week since Trump said his special military operation will be over "pretty quickly". He's now making moves to deploy assets that will take half a month to arrive. Bluster is not the same as control of events. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz...

Excellent, concise post from @pkrugman.bsky.social . Put simply: if supply dramatically falls of a good whose demand doesn't change much when its price does then its price will go through the roof. That's where oil is if the Straight of Hormuz stays closed. open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

In relation to the US mid-terms, it's worth noting that the war-related costs here come on top of soaring healthcare bills - and as inflation rises, so will interest rates and mortgages. All of which can be laid at Trump's door.

I won't criticise these groups for doing what they're set up to do. I won't blame courts for adjudicating matters within their competence. I will blame an excessively restrictive framework that allows endless challenges and is a huge inhibitant and set of barriers to getting stuff done. Change it.

This is unacceptable from the US, giving Russia yet another benefit from Trump's reckless and un-thought-through violence in Iran. Ukraine and Europe will pay the price. European governments should demand Trump reverse his policy and if he doesn't, withdraw American access to their bases.

Is this Trump saying that the US government cannot keep safe the representatives of another country in an international event it's hosting? The simple solution would be to reschedule the matches to Mexico, where they'll be safer.

Pick a very public fight with these fascist leeches, Keir. Get the MAGA right to defend them. The left bloc will notice and approve.

This is the point. As long as Trump and Netanyahu are in office then the Iranian leadership will, rightly, fear for their lives. Therefore, ironically, their war objective has surely become regime change. In both cases, that relies on manipulating opinion in their countries.

I feel that markets and governments should be paying attention to things like this. And, presumably, the assessment below is based on the situation today. The greater the destruction, disruption and risk, not only the longer before recovery starts but the longer recover takes.

The media should stop playing the games of the influential in positions like this. Either the likes of Mandelson (or his spokesman) go on the record or they don't get a say. There are times people can't go on the record formally. Fair enough. This isn't one.

Specific example to this just now on the BBC, whose reporter that oil passed $100/barrel overnight despite the biggest ever release from the global reserve stocks. No. Despite the announcement that there would be that release. Probably. Some time. It changes expectations but not, today, hard facts.

Why are so many journalists so credulous? Statements are not actions. Announcements of intent are not implemented policy. People - but especially people whose job it is to inform people - need to pay at least as much attention to what those in charge are *doing* as to what they're saying.

"Not since the Suez Crisis has the IDF fought alongside an ally in a major military offensive." You mean an intervention that was famously characterized by initial military success, but sparked an international economic crisis that forced a humiliating withdrawal?

Notice how all of our geopolitical enemies constantly attack the EU and push against European regulation. They do it because those regulations are exactly what protects us from them. A united and well-regulated Europe is their biggest nightmare

"Biggest ever" is usually a Trump-like hyperbolic claim. But for once it's not misplaced here. There is a real possibility that both Lab and Con - and to an extent, LD - are all eclipsed simultaneously.

The government did not have to pay Mandelson £75k. It did not have to pay him anything. Obtaining a position by deception (including the deception of omission) is fraud and failing to subsequently declare is gross misconduct. Dismissal without compensation is the natural consequence.

Sorry to be a nerd, but the government should really also publish Peter Mandelson's filled-in conflict of interest submission, when he was appointed Ambassador. Hopefully that's coming with the next tranche of released documents...

Who called the US operation Epic Fury - a phrase in its context that might as well be Trump Tantrum.

Just because the US might be able to clear the Straight of Hormuz today does not mean it can easily do so indefinitely. Yes, they can target cheap boats with expensive missiles while they have a large military presence in the area but for how long before it becomes a Forever War?

Removing* hereditary peers from the Lords is a very marginal step forwards towards the popularly-elected upper House parliament promised 115 years ago. * Not really: plenty will get consolation life peerages and stay. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Four points between first and third. Six points between first and fourth. Nine points between first and fifth. This is a recipe for chaos, unjust outcomes and a serious inability for the public to translate opinion into results. Labour really needs to reconsider PR.

“I will have such revenges on you both, That all the world shall—I will do such things— What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be The terrors of the earth!”