A lot of people *still* do not get what America has become. It is an early-stage fascist state. Its government deplores the rule of law, freedom of speech, rights of minorities. It celebrates power, force, action, repression. Legacy institutions still having some power does not change that.

Labour two points ahead of fifth. The lead governing party* has polled fourth before (the Tories did so in a few polls in mid-2019, as has Labour recently), but never fifth. * Obviously, junior coalition partners don't count for these purposes.

6/n As an aside, the US facilitating a coup in Venezuela to install a deputy who will submit to guidance from the sponsor in return for office, while that sponsor reaps the dividends has remarkable echoes of the East India Company and the Battle of Plassey in 1757. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_...

1/n So, a few more thoughts on Maduro and the US action in Venezuela. Whether the US was legally justified in intervening depends entirely on whether Venezuela gave consent. If not, then it was a pure act of aggression against a sovereign state. However, who *is* Venezuela? Not entirely clear.

This is spot on. Trump may think that he can coerce Rodríguez into doing whatever he wants by threats and (maybe) incentives but they are far from the only players in this. The Venezuelan army, other politicians (both regime supporters and opponents), and the public will all have their own ideas.

Quite. If Maduro was an illegitimate president, what does that make Delcy Rodriguez?

Keir Starmer should condemn Trump’s illegal action in Venezuela. Maduro is a brutal and illegitimate dictator, but unlawful attacks like this make us all less safe. Trump is giving a green light to the likes of Putin and Xi to attack other countries with impunity.

This is an argument that reduces Britain to complete vassel status. Is there *any* US action, no matter how deplorable or contrary to British interests, that he would opposed? This kind of cravenness only encourages Trump to go further and faster, confirming (accurately) in his mind his methods.

Annoyingly, I started writing a substack, picking my first subject as Trump-47's foreign policy but Christmas happened before I could finish it. Put simply, it's not a coherent thing but is informed by: - his own ego & wealth - control of natural resources - spheres of influence & Manifest Destiny

Prediction: the UK will back Trump. It would be completely the wrong decision, alienate those we should be working with, worry those we should be protecting, and confirm in Trump's mind the correctness of his policy. It will also be very unpopular domestically and leak further support to LD/Grn.

I think Buttigieg has this wrong. Trump isn't launching a war for popularity or distraction. This is about control of natural resources, which in his eyes is 'winning'. This is also why he's eyeing Canada and Greenland, and what he wants out of Ukraine.

Trump genuinely seems to think that he has both the authority and the power to enforce his will wherever he pleases. He has neither. It will end badly if he continues to try. Foreign leaders indulging him in his delusion is not even in his interests, never mind their own countries'.

Even if US forces have captured Maduro, this doesn't end that regime in Venezuela. How the rest of it reacts is critical. America can't control a country with such small numbers. There's also the obvious question as to what they do with Maduro. Plus, Trump's just set a precedent re heads of state.

Siri. Show me what double standards looks like. But it's a bit of an odd statement from the Kremlin. Why would they back Maduro over Trump, when the latter is validating their methods and spheres-of-influence view, and when support for Trump here would consolidate further their relationship?

I see that Trump has launched a special military operation. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5...

Regulatory authorities really need to get a grip and start dealing with what X not only allows but - via Grok - is directly creating and publishing. A bit of politician-led campaigning directed at those advertising there - and hence funding this child abuse - would help too.

This is a very good point. The state can't do everything and ministers in particular can't do everything. Neither should try. Obviously we need safety nets against excessive power the govt, companies, people, organisations and so on also need to be able to get on and do what they reasonably want.

1/2 Interesting substack from @pkrugman.bsky.social on the cracks in MAGA's outer orbit of conservative fellow travellers and those intimidated into compliance. He says he doesn't "know what form their defection would take". To me, it's simple: impeachment. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-herita...

A List of Predictions Made in 1926 About 2026 🧵

Trump should be very careful of statements like this (not that he will be). They raise expectations well beyond his ability to deliver. He is getting carried away by his own sense of his ability to influence events. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I'm either a disparate triumvirate of fractious allies at war* (current book) or a space-exploring archivist with a pet cat, one step ahead of annihilation (last book). * Your guess as to whether this is near-recent history or two millennia years earlier! History, eh? We learn because we don't.

Russia does not want peace. Which is good because they sure as hell don't deserve it. Let them keep dying until their regime and economy collapses. It would be helpful if Ukraine's allies came out and said this. Trump's power here rests primarily on no-one challenging his narrative.

Putin is playing Trump - and hugely successfully. Despite failure after failure on the battlefield, Putin might still walk away with significant gains at the conference table, simply by appealing to Trump's prior prejudices and innate corruption. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

An important point that needs to be made on the AEI website. The best deal that the Trump administration is willing to offer Ukraine is still an abomination. Trump has so warped expectations that too many can’t admit this. @kschake.bsky.social www.aei.org/articles/tru...

He isn't "losing" this money. This is called "paying tax like a responsible citizen and not hiding your money offshore" and we need to start recognising and applauding it.

I would be astonished if someone who kept Epstein's company and was as entitled, arrogant, privileged and stupid as Andrew hasn't left something properly criminally incriminating - as opposed to just very dodgy - somewhere. But this e-mail isn't it. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c3...

We shouldn't get too carried away here, by what looks like a swing away from the challenger parties. - Reform still leads - Ref+Grn is still 40% - YG's house methods routinely report lower Ref shares; their last 12 polls have all put them in the 25-28% range. Still, worth noting going into 2026.

Elections should not be cancelled except in the most extreme of circumstances. Re-organisations and 'capacity issues' are not good enough reasons. Democracy isn't subject to party interest. news.sky.com/story/watchd...

Just going through the comments on a local planning application and came across this gem. I can't say I entirely agree with the phrasing but I do have a certain understanding for the sentiment!

Trump is completely unreliable and will always break his word, in pursuit of more favourable 'deals' (which, inevitably, he'll also feel free to break). The only way he stops is if directly threatened. Time for a 1000% tax on US-owned golf courses in Britain.

Not just on here - hasn’t really been absorbed by most in government either.

These stats are now on Labour. 18 months is plenty long enough for policy to take effect. And unemployment up by a fifth in just a year is easily explained by low growth, supply pressures in some sectors leading to wage inflation, and the costs of the NI tax hike. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Which states Ukraine associates with is not Russia's business. Even engaging on the subject is sending the message that it's a legitimate mode of thinking. Ukraine and Europe should reject it outright (in Europe's case, also for its own sovereignty).

It surprises me that Tump never considers that his continual stoking of violence against his enemies might rebound. He was, after all, (probably*) shot during the 2024 campaign, and things are only getting more divisive. * I know the conspiracy theories but it seemed real enough to me.

Thanks to proposed visa changes, people from outside the US who criticise this post could well be denied entry to the US. That's the free speech and Western values the US now stands for.

FIFA have got something like 7 million tickets to sell for the World Cup. I don't see them doing so at these prices. Do the go with empty seats or climb down on price? It'll be interesting to see. www.bbc.co.uk/sport/footba...

Europe must urgently build an independent “EuroStack”of critical technologies — or risk foreign powers weaponising its digital dependencies, argues @giorgosverdi.bsky.social in a new report out today. A 🧵

Anybody hoping that this is going to be a real problem for Farage and Reform should probably calm down and move on. This expert take suggests it's very unlikely to result in anything - for several reasons.

I have known of several cases of obvious procedural electoral abuse by candidates and their campaigns, from overspending (or failure to report), to postal vote abuse. The police could not have made their lack of interest more clear. They certainly won't do much about marginal cases.

Why are drought measures still in force in Yorkshire? These should only apply in extreme circumstances but reservoir capacity was 87.7% a week ago: entirely normal. By keeping measures in place excessively, they shift the responsibility from water companies to the public.

I'm sure it's nothing that the purchase of a few Trump tokens can't solve. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Things that feel like they've taken less time than this World Cup draw: - Eurovision - Election night - The first Ashes Test match - The World Cup - The Hundred Years War - Evolution

Trump getting the FIFA Peace Prize (assuming he does but I'm not laying odds) is going to be his price for not keeping the World Cup trophy in the Oval Office, isn't it?

Holding Musk accountable. What a novel idea. Hopefully the UK govt follows the EU's lead on this front.

This will run. Other governments will come under pressure to withdraw, including Britain's - not least from within the Labour Party, and from competitors on the left. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ce...

Apparently it's Spotify summary day. Here's mine: Zero. I can't avoid global social media entirely but I'm not doing that one.

Just to be clear, any politician of any flavour who comes out for crypto is a charlatan or an idiot. Or both.

Think this is a good example of my theory that "the most risk averse interpretation of regulation" often matters far more than what regulation actually says.