The point is not that Farage would be re-elected in a Clacton by-election- he would be. The point is that for four weeks the entire campaign would be about him, his grift and his lies. That will have a UK-wide impact and not a positive one for him or Reform.

If this ends in a recall by-election, it's in the gift of the people of Clacton to do the funniest thing.

The number of people who wielded the knife and won the crown is legion. The saying that the assassin never benefits is one of the daftest and most disprovable in politics.

Everyone is rightly interested in Harborne’s monetary support for Nigel Farage. But GB News provides him with an annualised salary of over a million pounds a year, 500,000 shares and unaccounted for millions in terms of free political advertising for Farage’s Party

The momentum towards a Labour leadership election is now probably unstoppable. Certainly not by someone with Starmer's skill-set. Once people start behaving as if an election is imminent, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

King Charles*: "My government sent me this speech over the weekend. Let's be honest: it's subject to change." * Probably what he's thinking.

Starmer messed up hugely on Monday by concluding that what the country wanted to hear was an outline of what a Labour government looked like in concept. That was what he should have been setting out four years ago (but didn't). Delivery might now be timely.

Something very striking in the fact the markets - and I know they're different markets - are freaking out about the idea of Andy Burnham as PM, but entirely blase about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the fact we're about to run out of oil.

It's really odd than an ex-barrister, whose primary job was to make an argument in an adversarial setting, is so unwilling to make an argument or risk (never mind exploit) political division. They'll never make a prime minister.

Spectacularly bad call from No 10. Utterly out of touch both with political niceties and political reality. At this rate, he'll be pre-announcing his resignation this evening.

Not paying Council Tax on your main home is a big deal. This is a basic tax that everyone knows about and which it's easy to get (often free) advice about. If you're not doing what you should be, then you're a fool or a fraud. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Under-appreciated point here. The Iran-US blockade has not gone away, reserve stocks are being run down, ships are out of position and the crisis cannot be deferred indefinitely. Market traders are absolutely right to be worried about the oil markets. So should the rest of us.

Labour is likely to shortly enter a debate about macroeconomic policy, in which Modern Monetary Theory features heavily ("we don't need to worry about borrowing: we can print"). MMT sharing its initials with Magic Money Tree is coincidental but not misleading. To summarize: it's fantasy nonsense.

It's over. Starmer has lost the cabinet, his MPs, and the country. The question now is whether he insists on a messy coup or a tidy handover. It's also likely over for Burnham. You can't win the game if you're not in it.

Simple solution to being in the public eye: just act honestly. All sorts of things turning up about Polanski from false claims of his personal record to this below. Expect his supporters to blame the messenger - "right wing press hit job" - rather than engaging with the problem

Swinney can argue for a second Independence referendum all he likes but the SNP won only a little over a quarter of the regional vote, and pro-independence parties collectively won only 42.7%. AMS is distorting results and Scotland should follow Wales's lead in a move to a more proportional system.

It would be interesting to split the figures by Brexit vote. Without completely reviving the Red Wall analysis, the dynamics of Labour's ex-core vote in St Helens, Sunderland, Barnsley and Wakefield was very different to its equivalent in the big cities and especially London.

It's a measure of the political earthquake that's just hit England (and, if less so, Scotland and Wales), that Labour began the night defending over 2500 council seats and ended it being overtaken by a party that began the night defending 2. Reform also overtook Con, LD and Grn in the process.

West's plan cannot work and is silly. Either she doesn't understand her party's own rules, or she has a very odd set of assumptions as to the consequences of her own challenge. In reality, West using up MP nominations on her own bid makes it harder for a credible challenger to find the numbers.

The momentum the Liberal Democrats can build through a public perception of being the least crazy party in opposition is underestimated at the moment

The cold light of day thought on UK election results is the near impossibility of sensible democratic politics in the social media age. A global phenomenon which is systematically under played by nearly everyone but because every more obvious.

Labour is going to have to learn how to do opposition in quite a few places where they have no experience of it. As well as the often drastic loss of the councillors themselves, they'll also lose access, information and, presumably, donations. Also, relevance. A changed world for them.

Andy Burnham is the answer - if the question is: "which politician has the biggest gap between the hopes projected onto them and their actual record?" Burnham tanked in two Labour leadership elections. He dithers. He lacks confidence in his judgement (with reason). He was an indifferent minister.

Maybe it would have happened anyway. The economic changes of a globalised, post-industrial country, with the media and comms revolution of the internet and mobiles might have been too much for Old Politics whatever (though they haven't been everywhere). All the same ... (cont.)

Rob is right here, although we should avoid the temptation of assuming that Green switchers would revert to Lab if the Greens stood down. They're protesting or making values votes as they are for a reason. If no Green, then most probably abstain or find a different protest party.

Trump is rapidly burning through his alliances in the Middle East, to go along with those in Europe. He still doesn't get that these are (or were) a projection of American power and that it will be much diminished without them.

Just back from some final day campaigning. The anger towards Labour is quite remarkable (and unhealthy all things considered: both locally and nationally they're uninspiring and not delivering but that wouldn't normally drive anger to these levels). I remember 2008. This is worse.

Pretty much an instant downgrade to a some-of-society approach, then

Ridiculous if the Scottish electoral system - supposedly PR - gives SNP/Grn a near-majority on 37% of the vote. Change needed.

I'm not too surprised. Zack Polanski has proactively been brought up (negatively) on a couple of occasions while I've been out campaigning - and not by voters of the right. Ok, not a big sample but it looks like his mistakes are cutting through.

Trump is still thinking of US forces deployed in an alliance as essentially mercenaries that America isn't being paid for - hence withdrawing them is a punishment. He is, as usual, wrong. Overseas bases are critical to projecting, therefore part of, US power. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Any other politician. Any other party. This would be wall to wall media scrutiny. Farage and Reform shouldn’t be able to move without this being thrown at them. Venal brokers to crypto billionaires and fossil fuel magnates. A corrupt man leading a corrupt party. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

This is honestly the most coldly furious letter I think I've ever seen from a police chief to a politician. By quite some margin.

Why is it that when there's a film scene involving someone at a computer, the person involved never forgets their password logging back in, or mistypes it, or types their previous one? Leave aside the realism, there's tension there to be had. Missed opportunity, I think.

The Renter's Rights Act coming into force is a good thing but what would really be a game-changer is giving renters the power of the market. As long as there is a shortage of properties, landlords will have the upper hand. Build more. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

This would not surprise me. However, Don jnr is not Don snr and I doubt the transition would stick. Worth remembering that Trump didn't get a completely clear run in the 2024 primaries despite his ascendant position in the party, and political skills.

The number of cases the Greens have like this is rising. Question is how long it will be before the mainstream media start covering them. If / when they do, I expect Polanski to make all the same mistakes that Corbyn did. And for the same reasons: they have to be the good guys and the victims.

This does seem likely to happen (but, Trump, so you never know). The US has been restocking its capacity in the region and Trump can't afford a long blockade of Gulf supplies. However, as before, it's not clear that there's a plan linking action to outcome.

Candidates like this will be a crucial test for Polanski’s leadership. Both action and inaction send a clear message about what his Green Party will and won’t accept.

Well, that didn't take long. Financial analysts have been woefully - unprofessionally - underestimating risk from the Iran conflict throughout. Dated/spot Brent prices have frequently been above $120/barrel. Why wouldn't futures catch up when neither side is compelled to back down?

If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues beyond what global strategic reserves can supply to the market, I reckon oil prices will more than double from where they are here. Just saying. Then there's helium, fertilizer and the rest that's shipped that way. #Trumpcession

People aren’t driven to blame and attack innocent Jews because of Israel and Netanyahu, they’re driven to it because they hate Jews. No one’s going around stabbing American expats for being American over the war in Iran.

we are told that it’s Europe that has a problem with free speech

I don't know if this was a photo captured at an unrepresentative moment but Trump's body posture here is odd. Absolutely no energy. Usually, even if speakers aren't actively animating their words with gestures, they'll be in a neutral position ready to do so. Here, his arms are just dangling.

This is a subtle rejoinder to Trump's 51st state nonsense towards Canada. Remember what happened last time you tried it, guys.

Well, he did. Fair play.

I wonder if the Trump administration understands that it's giving Comey an exceptional platform from which to make the case for impeaching Trump?

The aiding and abetting of Russian theft is by the Israeli government. It is long past time to sanction the state and country as a whole.

If Ukraine is successful in this - and there's a good chance it will be given the importance of the project and their success in other tech - it'll create a massive export market once the war is over. Who'd want to buy 30+ year-old US kit at the prices they charge?

Fascinating snippet from Paul Krugman's latest substack. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-oil-sq... 80% of the supply lost from the closure of the Strait is being replaced by reserves. If those reserves run out, prices should soar by ~4 times what they already have. Which'd be about $260/barrel.