Long time markets watcher Mansoor Mohi-uddin - now at the Bank of Singapore - on bull case for UK assets: 1) any new PM likely to continue fiscal rules 2) the need to drive growth before next election 3) likely closer EU ties www.ft.com/content/253c...

The point is not that Farage would be re-elected in a Clacton by-election- he would be. The point is that for four weeks the entire campaign would be about him, his grift and his lies. That will have a UK-wide impact and not a positive one for him or Reform.

Grim.

How do you prepare to resign?

Bridget Phillipson. Watch closely. She'd win.

Notably, the longest section of the speech focused on the case for clean energy action - which makes it all the more bizarre Starmer barely mentioned it in his speech on Monday.

This in my view is the crux of why Starmer has generated so much public anger in the last 18 months. His basic promise to the public was a well-managed government that would enable people to worry less about politics and just get on with life. Yet everything and everyone is still as stuck as ever.

Something very striking in the fact the markets - and I know they're different markets - are freaking out about the idea of Andy Burnham as PM, but entirely blase about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the fact we're about to run out of oil.

Labour's Immigration Bill is the most immoral and repugnant thing this Government has done. It would mean a care worker who came to this country looking after our elderly, working night shifts on low pay, would wait 10 years to apply for citizenship But an investment banker could apply in 3 years

(genuinely amazed the biggest item in the Kings Speech politically is one that will get 150 MPs + to rebel against you and further alienate the progressive voters who you need to win back. It's proper numberwang)

The gilt market of course does not get a vote. At the moment this is mostly vibes rather than considered analysis. The vibes absolutely, 100% matter but medium term I can’t see Burnham/Rayner/Miliband/Streeting/etc making an especially large difference to the gilt market. www.ft.com/content/3e1c...

Back to my usual guff, pessimistic political analysis macdonnchada.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

Morally indefensible Politically insane Economically harmful The government's immigration policy is a catastrophe for the Labour party, a gift to its opponents on left and right, and really bad for the country. Starmer owns it entirely.

Fundamentally, a lot of the problems in British politics comes from a political generation being forced to do something they think is a bad idea, to appease voters they think are wrong with beliefs they don't really understand.

Not for nothing, but I think a lot of people have wrongly settled on “Twitter became a right-wing cesspool because all the cool people left” instead of “All the cool people left because Twitter became a right-wing cesspool.”

The TV news and Press covering Farage versus The TV news and Press covering Labour and Zack Polanski

I get Spain and can communicate there. Italy? It's totally different. And that is fantastic!!

The more time I spend in Italy and with Italians the more I realise what a totally impenetrable country is. Things just work here differently. It's great. Proper abroad.

Sadly, it could just be that Labour is not suited to (good) government. No party is.

There is a hell of a pattern emerging with Polanski. Someone who makes so many "mistakes" is not close to credible.

Non-US NATO soldiers killed defending the US in Afghanistan: 🇬🇧 457 🇨🇦 158 🇫🇷 90 🇩🇪 62 🇮🇹 53 🇵🇱 44 🇩🇰 43 🇪🇸 34 🇷🇴 27 🇳🇱 25 🇨🇿 14 🇳🇴 10 🇪🇪 9 🇭🇺 7 🇸🇪 5 🇱🇻 4 🇸🇰 3 🇫🇮 2 🇵🇹 2 🇦🇱 2 🇧🇪 1 🇧🇬 1 🇭🇷 1 🇱🇹 1 🇲🇪 1 Denmark and the UK suffered amongst the highest per‑capita soldier death rates in NATO.

Update: Kemi’s green shoots of Conservative recovery

Miatta Fahnbulleh, Jess Phillips and Alex Davies Jones; so far all 3 ministerial resignations are women, 2 directly responsible for delivering on the manifesto pledge to halve violence against women and girls. There has been real simmering anger in the women's PLP about not being listened to.

Fuck Blue Labour. Blue Labour is not Labour.

One of the things Starmer's defenders on here get so wrong is to insist it's all about media froth. In fact, as that Jess Philips letter demonstrates, the most damning criticism of Starmer comes from those concerned about the policy and delivery process.

A theme here is the refusal to properly regulate tech companies- including when it comes to child safety. Taking on tech power is an example of something that could have helped create a sense of change and public mission. So many opportunities.

The first thing a new PM should be doing is demanding Ofcom intervene at GBNews

This is absolutely brutal - and gets right to the heart of Starmer's flaws as a leader. His position is now unsurvivable. It would be a kindness if his advisers made this clear to him.

The Starmer government's policy on Europe is fundamentally unserious.

Very much this 👇

Chris is right, and in addition, these maps actually *understate* how bad the local elections were!

We've had 2 years of non government I genuinely think it's an insult to voters to ask them to hang around with a lame duck PM for 4-6 months on the off chance all the stars aline and Andy gets to Westminster. And what if he doesn't? The choices are the choices and they are the ones who are MPs.

Amazingly a very good interview on Today on gilts market/UK fiscal policy. Key points -Main driver currently is global events (war, oil) - UK borrowing/debt compares relatively well - UK doesn't have much scope to change policy but doesn't matter that much who is PM

She understands she can’t actually deport him, right?

Bongiorno ...

Labour factionalism will deliver the UK to the far-right. It is unforgivable.

This is, quite literally, mental.

I won't sleep tonight. Too much sugar from the dodgy after dinner drink. Tomorrow will be grimissimmo.

Europe is endlessly fascinating, brilliant and magnificent. Thank-you for attending my TED Talk.

We found where Milan's trams go to rest for the night ...

Blue Labour ministers and MPs have some front telling Starmer to go when their fingerprints are all over this Government's failures.

In Italy they throw dodgy, sugary, herby spirits at you on the house after dinner. How will I sleep tonight after three shots? I've got nine hours of work tomorrow. It will be hell. But I love it. Submerging into another culture. Though this is Lombardy. The south, they tell me, is very different.

Milano ...

This is becoming an annual event

It's sort of ironic that many Labour MPs are finally in the same place psychologically as most of the country: Desperate for change, angry, helpless, and casting around for anyone to do anything, but without any idea who or what.

This response is understandable, and feels compassionate. I said very similar things about the area that I grew up, which voted heavily for Brexit. But the thing is: these people have been indulged in their ideas — which are racist, and also simply incoherent — for over a decade.

One of many talented, smart 2024 entry Labour MPs whose thoughts and views the leadership has studiously ignored.

No, it is actually in fact a huge policy issue that the prime minister does not adjudicate between departments, does not command the support of his MPs and does not grip whether policies are actually being delivered!

The public is not exactly rewarding Labour now.

Total curtains