Interesting from @samfr.bsky.social as ever "...young women’s leftwards turn is not just an issue for parties on the right, it’s a problem for centre-left parties too. They are fixating about the loss of older voters to the radical right [while] haemorrhaging young women to parties like the Greens"

Nigel Farage makes mistakes just like any other politician and his close relationship with Trump is a big one, as explained by Persuasion Director, Steve Akehurst on the @newstatesman.com podcast: Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to? Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want. strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...

WATCH Persuasion Director @steveakehurst.bsky.social discuss our latest research on Reform's brand weaknesses on the @newstatesman.com podcast with @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and Anoosh Chakelian: youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...

This is fascinating research - Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them. Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.

Quite an interesting gender gap opening up in vote intention at the mo: Reform vote notably more male, residual Con vote more female. Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways. Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.

This is the same as hospitals, police, climate change etc. Huge gap between % who say they want more govt spending and % who say they'd pay more themselves. Task for govt is to make the case for why we need to pay more now, to save money later. Chart from @steveakehurst.bsky.social

Everything you need to know about the British voting public

Jason Cowley suggests that being 'net zero supporting' is the preserve of the 'metropolitan liberal-left' against 'working class Labour' when polling consistently shows that the majority of the public support net zero. Lazy stereotyping doesn't make it true. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

"...core voter groups can leave political parties suddenly if they don’t feel we are serving them." This backs up Persuasion's research which is referenced in Jeevun's piece.

"...this is the time for outright confrontation with the dark forces of the right, reaffirming social democratic and liberal progressive optimism." @pollytoynbee.bsky.social uses our research to show that progressive policies can save Labour's voter coalition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

A glimmer of hope for Labour – its vote share rises to 36% if Reform is its main opponent (via @persuasionuk.bsky.social).

Correct! Read our report for more info on this: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

Good to see @jessicaelgot.bsky.social using our research to show that Net Zero remains popular and that Labour needs to pay as much attention to its left flank as its Reform curious voters. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

‪'Maybe it’s not just schoolboys who should be sat down and made to watch Netflix’s Adolescence, as MPs keep arguing, but their fathers." @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social on our surprise finding that Gen Z men aren't as extreme as we might think. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are generally in favour of Net Zero compared to core Reform voters who have a lot of hostility towards it. Read more here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

This is excellent research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social. Urge everyone to read for an *informed* take on the voters Labour is losing to Reform.

Great report that largely confirms what we have found for other countries. 1) Potential losses to Reform are dwarved by potential losses to Greens/LibDems. 2) Moving right on immigration has very small effect on retaining potential Reform voters. Net gains/losses largely cancel each other out.

Our 10,000 person survey, out today, finds that ‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are different to core Reform voters in key ways including being much more progressive on the economy and supportive of Net Zero. Read our new report here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

They like Farage but don't share his hostility to net zero. And they worry about the whole, you know, possible racism thing *uptalk for this bit*. Illuminating new research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social on "Reform-curious" Labour voters and a host of policy dilemmas www.ft.com/content/deb2...

The full research on "Reform curious" Labour voters is now out and on Steve's substack and thread below - you'd be mad not to have a look - so much to mull over. Including: Wales? No, Scotland! As well as the broader policy angles we covered in the FT op ed this morning www.ft.com/content/deb2...

NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform? How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over? Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇

With the government mulling cuts to Tesla subsidies, our recent polling suggests that the public is likely to support this - particularly if the subsidies are directed towards UK car manufacturing. 1/3

Welfare reform is an angsty topic for Labour, with its swing vote & base in different places. But vaguely interesting to note the 'Reform curious' bit of Labour vote is not actually that anti-welfare, narrowly pro in fact. Different to both wider Reform vote and other Lab switcher groups.

"[While] Reform UK and Nigel Farage are increasingly popular, they remain unpopular overall....this calls into question Reform UK’s vulnerability to the same sort of tactical voting machine that geared into action last year to hand the Conservatives their worst ever election result."

Persuasion is 6 months old! To celebrate we've just sent out our first newsletter. You can sign up here for more updates on our latest research and insights: persuasionuk.org

Luke's segments work always fascinating. Lab's 16 point drop among "loyal nationals" is attracting attention - but the party is also down 9 points since GE (and 27 points since 2019) among progressive activists - their core group, by 12 among "disengaged battlers & by 10 among "civic pragmatists"

Latest from @steveakehurst.bsky.social demonstrates (again) that people's attitudes to transport are practical, not ideological, and there's strong support for greener transport. Efforts to boost uptake for EVs must therefore address practical concerns on charging & cost, and combat misinformation

‘Where has the Labour 2024 vote gone?’ latest: still Labour: 57% Don’t know 13% Lib Dem 8% Green 5% Reform 5% Conservative 4% Would not vote 3% SNP 2% Con 2024 vote: Still Con 65% Reform 20% Don’t know 9% Labour 2% Lib Dem 1% Would not vote 1%

How might the UK prevent backlash on the switch to Electric Vehicles? Trump has just made hay with the anti-EV cause in the US. What are the prospects of that here and how might it be avoided? Quick thread on some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today with @ippr.bsky.social 🧵👇

🚗 | NEW REPORT: Electric vehicles are not a culture war issue - most voters are instinctively positive towards them. In this report with @persuasionuk.bsky.social we polled the public to get their views and highlight policies to maximise the benefits of EVs. www.ippr.org/articles/pub...

The research we did straight after the election also found that majority or plurality opinion in almost all parliamentary constituencies was that the gv't should go further and fast on climate policy than it is going right now (inc. 67% of Labour voters).

Over half of Labour’s support (52%) came from its core group of urban progressives and soft left liberals…the party cannot aim for the centre ground safe in the knowledge that there is nowhere else for its core voters to go: it has to fend off competition from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

I keep reading pieces that say Reform came from nowhere to win 5 seats and 14% of the vote in 2024 - did everyone forget 2015? Or even June 2019?

Just had an interesting chat to @kateemccann.bsky.social on Times Radio about young people voting from Reform. This is often exaggerated in commentary. The data from the @britishelectionstudy.com post-election survey (online) shows a clear age gradient - though that is flatter for men vs women.

The budget is over but here’s a rundown of media coverage from our first big project with @ippr.bsky.social looking at what shaped voter attitudes towards the government and tax & spend. For full analysis: @steveakehurst.bsky.social. First up, @kiranstacey.bsky.social and the Guardian Live Blog:

“
Reform is emerging as the parliamentary wing of Britain’s terminally online, perennially resentful keyboard warriors.” www.politics.co.uk/politicslunc...

Great to see Director of Persuasion, @steveakehurst.bsky.social , quoted in this piece by @sarahoconnorft.bsky.social ‬for the @financialtimes.com arguing that MPs love "green jobs" arguments but that the public don't buy them. www.ft.com/content/2d00...