Weird thing is most testing will show you that one of the most vote losing positions Labour could adopt is explicit anti-Net Zero signalling. This is because climate still disproportionately matters to Lab/Green voters while Lab/Reform voters don’t care either way...

Last month, @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on what messages have cut through against Reform featured in @samfr.bsky.social's substack. The td;lr is that being seen as personally enriching, or generally not on the side of ordinary people, hurts the brand.

Without a change of strategy, living standards will be worse by the end of this parliament. But the government could act to bring down the prices families are struggling with. This would create savings for people and, as polling today from @persuasionuk.bsky.social shows, be very popular

Really pleased that @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on the strengths and weaknesses of the Reform brand features in @samfr.bsky.social's substack today.

Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in @cityam.bsky.social, talking about baselines for assessing Makerfield: "As strange as it sounds, Labour have no right to even be competitive in this seat; they should be 20-odd points behind based on national polling". www.cityam.com/what-should-...

"One of the saddest graphs that faces this government is that all of the things people hate they know a lot about, and all of the things they like they haven't heard of." Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social at Progress conference this afternoon talking about Labour's renters' rights offer:

🚨 New pod: Starmer on the brink 🚨 I was joined by Labour MP @joshfg.bsky.social and @steveakehurst.bsky.social from @persuasionuk.bsky.social as well as top colleague @siennarodgers.bsky.social and Ryan Wain from the TBI to look at how Labour got here, how it might recover, and with who as PM

NEW: What exactly happened in the local and devolved elections in England, Scotland and Wales last week? @persuasionuk.bsky.social has some new polling out today which offers a first glimpse. Thread here on top line findings from each nation. 🧵

Much discussion post locals is on who Labour’s leader should be. For @newstatesman1913.bsky.social, I’ve asked who the party’s coalition should be: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

"Councillors gained is an OK metric, but it's not perfect for lots of different reasons... one of the best things you can do is wait for the projected national vote share". @steveakehurst.bsky.social on @hugorifkind.bsky.social's programme this morning talking about how to read the locals results:

Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in the HuffPost this morning, warning that we can't neatly equate seat loss to a party to vote loss to that party. www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/may-el...

This is exactly what the British Election Study tells us happened last year! Yet that did not stop a round of 'Labour losing votes to Reform' which contributed to the Govt missing the much bigger threat to their left. So these things matter analytically and in the messy world of politics.

This time next week there's going to be a lot of hot takes and spin knocking around, especially re: Reform. I've written a short primer for @politicshome.bsky.social on how to stay sane and navigate the immediate post-election chaos. Thread here too. 🧵 www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

Always worth reading research from @persuasionuk.bsky.social

Tactically I think Reeves made best of a bad situation today - the individual measures were sensible and some good stuff in there. But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.

Must read for Labour - then they can't say they weren't told!

Fascinating report out today looking at the choices facing Labour ahead of the budget - there are no good options but failing on core progressive goals is a much bigger risk for Labour govt than breaking promises on tax.

Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this. TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab. 🧵

WATCH: @steveakehurst.bsky.social discusses our latest research on the government's 'least worst option' on tax rises with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV73...

NEW: our latest research on where voters stand on tax rises v improvements on public services and cost of living is out now. Read it here: persuasionuk.org/research/bud...

Interesting from @samfr.bsky.social as ever "...young women’s leftwards turn is not just an issue for parties on the right, it’s a problem for centre-left parties too. They are fixating about the loss of older voters to the radical right [while] haemorrhaging young women to parties like the Greens"

Nigel Farage makes mistakes just like any other politician and his close relationship with Trump is a big one, as explained by Persuasion Director, Steve Akehurst on the @newstatesman.com podcast: Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to? Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want. strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...

WATCH Persuasion Director @steveakehurst.bsky.social discuss our latest research on Reform's brand weaknesses on the @newstatesman.com podcast with @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and Anoosh Chakelian: youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...

This is fascinating research - Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them. Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.

Quite an interesting gender gap opening up in vote intention at the mo: Reform vote notably more male, residual Con vote more female. Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways. Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.

This is the same as hospitals, police, climate change etc. Huge gap between % who say they want more govt spending and % who say they'd pay more themselves. Task for govt is to make the case for why we need to pay more now, to save money later. Chart from @steveakehurst.bsky.social

Everything you need to know about the British voting public

Jason Cowley suggests that being 'net zero supporting' is the preserve of the 'metropolitan liberal-left' against 'working class Labour' when polling consistently shows that the majority of the public support net zero. Lazy stereotyping doesn't make it true. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

"...core voter groups can leave political parties suddenly if they don’t feel we are serving them." This backs up Persuasion's research which is referenced in Jeevun's piece.

"...this is the time for outright confrontation with the dark forces of the right, reaffirming social democratic and liberal progressive optimism." @pollytoynbee.bsky.social uses our research to show that progressive policies can save Labour's voter coalition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

A glimmer of hope for Labour – its vote share rises to 36% if Reform is its main opponent (via @persuasionuk.bsky.social).

Correct! Read our report for more info on this: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

Good to see @jessicaelgot.bsky.social using our research to show that Net Zero remains popular and that Labour needs to pay as much attention to its left flank as its Reform curious voters. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

‪'Maybe it’s not just schoolboys who should be sat down and made to watch Netflix’s Adolescence, as MPs keep arguing, but their fathers." @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social on our surprise finding that Gen Z men aren't as extreme as we might think. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are generally in favour of Net Zero compared to core Reform voters who have a lot of hostility towards it. Read more here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

This is excellent research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social. Urge everyone to read for an *informed* take on the voters Labour is losing to Reform.

Great report that largely confirms what we have found for other countries. 1) Potential losses to Reform are dwarved by potential losses to Greens/LibDems. 2) Moving right on immigration has very small effect on retaining potential Reform voters. Net gains/losses largely cancel each other out.

Our 10,000 person survey, out today, finds that ‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are different to core Reform voters in key ways including being much more progressive on the economy and supportive of Net Zero. Read our new report here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

They like Farage but don't share his hostility to net zero. And they worry about the whole, you know, possible racism thing *uptalk for this bit*. Illuminating new research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social on "Reform-curious" Labour voters and a host of policy dilemmas www.ft.com/content/deb2...

The full research on "Reform curious" Labour voters is now out and on Steve's substack and thread below - you'd be mad not to have a look - so much to mull over. Including: Wales? No, Scotland! As well as the broader policy angles we covered in the FT op ed this morning www.ft.com/content/deb2...

NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform? How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over? Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇

With the government mulling cuts to Tesla subsidies, our recent polling suggests that the public is likely to support this - particularly if the subsidies are directed towards UK car manufacturing. 1/3

Welfare reform is an angsty topic for Labour, with its swing vote & base in different places. But vaguely interesting to note the 'Reform curious' bit of Labour vote is not actually that anti-welfare, narrowly pro in fact. Different to both wider Reform vote and other Lab switcher groups.

"[While] Reform UK and Nigel Farage are increasingly popular, they remain unpopular overall....this calls into question Reform UK’s vulnerability to the same sort of tactical voting machine that geared into action last year to hand the Conservatives their worst ever election result."

Persuasion is 6 months old! To celebrate we've just sent out our first newsletter. You can sign up here for more updates on our latest research and insights: persuasionuk.org

Luke's segments work always fascinating. Lab's 16 point drop among "loyal nationals" is attracting attention - but the party is also down 9 points since GE (and 27 points since 2019) among progressive activists - their core group, by 12 among "disengaged battlers & by 10 among "civic pragmatists"

Latest from @steveakehurst.bsky.social demonstrates (again) that people's attitudes to transport are practical, not ideological, and there's strong support for greener transport. Efforts to boost uptake for EVs must therefore address practical concerns on charging & cost, and combat misinformation