The problem that Amy new leadership candidate has is that they need 80 nominations from a PLP who mostly face Reform as their challenger and many of whom (wrongly IMO) think being tougher on migration will help, but they also need to win the Labour membership who are very socially liberal.

A big factor in Gorton & Denton is the significant number of voters who will be seriously scared about having a Reform MP. Imagine being Muslim and having to go to *Matt Goodwin* with your immigration casework. So they'll be highly motivated to vote for whoever is best placed to defeat Reform.

The most important thing about this by-election won't be who wins, it will be which of the anti-Reform parties comes first. If Reform win it will only be because the opposition has split catastrophically - if Lab come 2nd, it is a warning of what happens when Greens don't tactically vote.

These Tory to Reform defections could trigger 3 dynamics: 1. Blunt Reform's "insurgency" appeal 2. Convince Con/Ref waverers that Reform is the only viable party to beat Labour 3. OR push Con/Ref waverers back to the Cons as the only "sensible" option www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

A Reform majority would probably be won with little more than 30% of the vote with most British people opposed to PM Farage but having been unable/unwilling to organise themselves to stop it. It would be a government which has unrestricted power to make radical change yet no mandate to do so.

I wrote for @renewaljournal.bsky.social on the fracturing of Labour's vote, arguing this has been a long, structural process and can't be reversed by nostalgia about the 1950s when the two main parties got 97% of the vote between them (current polls have Lab plus Con at less than 40% vote share).

We really need to think about the fact that yes, the Dems banging on that Trump was a threat to democracy didn't electorally work, and yet what they said was true. Rather than blaming the left for hysteria we need to understand why the public didn't believe them or believed them and didn't care.

1/ Something which I don't think gets articulated clearly often enough is that a system where countries generally respect international sovereignty and territorial integrity is not pure charity or morality by the United States, but in its direct interests. Despite it being the strongest bear.

What do people in England think about their local area? In this short report I take a look at surveys we conducted with @yougov.co.uk in 2022, 2024 and 2025 to gain some insights... Some key findings...

A big reason for this misunderstanding is that the type of migration people care most about—small boats—is *not* falling, and the public vastly overestimate how much this contributes to overall migration. The government often doesn’t help itself here. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

It's worth remembering that Trump is not omnipotent. He is not a Roman Emperor who can execute people who disagree with him and push on regardless. The saner Republicans do have the power to curb his worst excesses - and I'd have thought with polls like this, they now have an incentive to do so.

I think Trump is miscalculating over Venezuela because his mentality revolves around the division between the strong and the weak, and the assumption that the weak always submit to the strong. America has demonstrated its strength so the Venezuelan regime should submit and let the US run the place.

NEW When should social media posts have legal consequences? Comparing and contrasting the cases of Lucy Connolly and Alaa Abd El-Fattah By me, at @newstatesman1913.bsky.social www.newstatesman.com/politics/soc...

Parts of the left were rightly attacked for only acknowledging some forms of racism and ignoring others. Astonishing to see the alacrity with which the hard right has imitated this behaviour - plus the lack of critical comment this hypocrisy receives from the "moderate" right.

Labour does so badly in this poll mainly because, as the tables show, they lose 29% of their 2024 vote to the Lib Dems and Greens. Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.

The commentary says "People switching from Labour are heavily motivated by tactical considerations with 30% saying this is the primary reason for their switch" yet the new voting system doesn't need tactical votes to keep out Reform. If Lab can communicate this, they might get a few votes back.

Bus usage has been increasing across the North – but one of the biggest increases has been seen in Greater Manchester. Is this a result of @andyburnham.bsky.social taking buses back into public control? And are there other reasons for optimism? Short 🧵 1/4

Completely agree. For me, private school changed my life because I came from a poor family, the government paid my fees and state schools in London at the time were poor. But it will add much less value to a kid from a wealthy family who could get them into what are now, very good state schools.

Partly the problem is "party people already suspect might be racist is led by someone suspected of racism" is less of a story than "party which tells everyone else not to be racist doesn't deal with racism in its own ranks". Left wing parties are inevitably going to be held to a higher standard.

I think the reason Trump is so bad at peace making is he can't understand why people fight wars - because he can't comprehend why people are willing to die for a cause greater than themselves. He doesn't get why an (apparently) weaker party (eg Ukraine) won't just concede (eg give up the Donbas).

Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters. We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk). But that doesn't tell the full story. Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):

This statement not acceptable and I suspect not sustainable. Large majority of public support principle of asylum, support letting people stay permanently. Majority for that among Labour and other progressive parties’ voters is overwhelming. The Reform voters this is aimed at will never vote Labour

There is little public understanding about what local authorities spend their money on (ie principally adult social care). Labour Together's polling finds people think it takes up 13% of council spending, in fact it's 39%. And they overestimate admin costs. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...

Further thought on Caerphilly: it's a grim result for Labour because it has been replaced as the progressive party most likely to beat Reform in Wales. But the *scale* of the collapse of Labour's vote is a much bigger problem for Reform, because it shows the level of tactical voting against them.

Particularly notable that Reform was beaten in a high turnout election. At May's locals they seem to have benefitted from turning out people who did not vote in 2024 - looks like we're now seeing a similar turnout among more progressive voters, motivated to beat them.

Enjoyed doing this podcast with @davehillonlondon.bsky.social. I made the point that Labour can't afford to lose its support in London. Right now 14% of the seats it won in 2024 are in the capital. But in the latest @yougov.co.uk MRP this rises to over a third of the 144 seats Labour keeps.

I accept that even the Tories can't out-Reform Reform on immigration, but is it a totally crazy pitch for them to say to Con/Ref considerers "sure, we aren't as hard line on immigration as Reform, but we are pretty tough, and importantly we are not completely batshit on the the economy."

Interesting that Reform, which is currently 10+ points ahead in the polls, has accused Starmer of "scholastic terrorism" apparently without being worried that it is labelling the Labour/Reform considerers it needs to attract as supporters of terrorism.

Thoughts on the potential impact of a Your Party/Green pact versus the parties standing separately. Standing independently hurts Labour the most, but overwhelmingly the beneficiary is likely to be Reform. OTOH a pact helps Your Party in a handful of seats. Neither scenario really helps the Greens.

The problem with the Ukraine-Russia negotiations is that Trump completely fails to grasp that the aims of the two sides are totally incompatible, and he needs to decide which side he actually wants to win. Ukraine wants to be a sovereign, thriving state. Russia ideally wants to subjugate Ukraine.

It turns out that the vast majority (around 80%) of the public don't know which parties are (currently) likely to be the top challengers for their constituency, which could make effective tactical voting verrrry difficult, as I note here: labourlist.org/2025/08/tact...

I'd really recommend actually reading Ian's substack before passing any comment. It's thoughtful, offers some excellent advice and is generally an antidote to the kind of crap peddled to young men from the charlatans and the radical right.

Am quoted in @labourlist.bsky.social on the Return of Stevenage Woman, making the point that the biggest group of voters which Labour is currently losing is not to Reform, but to "Don't Know". labourlist.org/2025/07/stev...

Wrote this on the big problem that the hard right have with London - if ethnic diversity and high levels of migration really are the major causes of decline in the UK, then why is the region with the greatest diversity and largest number of migrants, doing so well?

Reform's policies are designed for maximum political appeal but are economically bonkers. This *should* hurt them badly in an election campaign, so long as we still have some semblance of normal politics - unlike, say, in the US where Trump's destructive economic agenda was simply ignored.

The rise of Nigel Farage could lead you to believe that a more abrasive way of doing politics is popular. So, we wanted to test: Does the public want politicians to swear more? Should politicians try to be more colourful, by using more colourful language? The answer is ‘no’(-ish). A thread 🧵:

So many genuine problems facing the UK - neither the government nor individuals have enough money, poor public services, threats from hostile foreign powers. That parts of the right obssess about "too many brown people in London" speaks volumes about their lack of solutions to the real problems.

The bust-ups on the populist right — Musk vs Trump in the US, and Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf vs MP Sarah Pochin are fundamentally about ideological splits - one between small-state libertarians and economic populists, the other between those embracing racial politics and those aiming for respectability.

The idea that apocalyptic levels of demographic change are destroying Britain are always undermined by proponents citing stats on ethnicity from London. When London is the richest region in the country and is broadly at ease - even celebratory - of its diversity. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...

Today @labourtogether.bsky.social called for a Digital ID for all UK citizens and residents. There are many good reasons for this - convenience, efficiency of public services, avoiding another Windrush scandal, but also the impact on perceptions of migration. www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...

@economist.com this week quotes Labour Together's research which found that voters are supremely pessimistic about high prices, thinking that they're here forever. If some energy prices *do* fall (as they are predicted to do) this could be a rare upside surprise for voters.

If this is the analysis from Conservatives (from BBC) they are in even more trouble than I imagined - this is basic innumeracy! Even if you start from the (incorrect) assumption that most Ref voters are ex-Labour, then Labour doing better just brings them back to Lab, it has no impact on Con vote.

The two main reasons that people voted Labour in GE2024 (including those who have now switched to Reform) was because they hoped Labour would deal with the cost of living and poor public services. Worth bearing in mind when looking for reasons why people are switching away from Labour.

This is excellent research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social. Urge everyone to read for an *informed* take on the voters Labour is losing to Reform.

There was consensus that GE2024 was a valence election ie decided on the (in)competence of the government. Yet commentary focuses on ideology to explain current polling (Lab losing to Ref on immigration, or losing to Greens/LDs on progressive issues) rather than perceptions of competence.

Astonishing analysis here from Tory peer Lord Hayward. The governing party is down 10 points in the polls since the election, he predicts will lose few seats the local elections, while the supposed main Opposition party loses half its seats - and apparently this is a massive problem for... Labour!

Voters deserting mainstream parties is driven by the belief that politicians lie and fail to deliver on promises. Communicating badly constructed policy, which doesn't deliver the results voters expect, just to get attention and look decisive is bad politics. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

This is all feeling very Liz Truss. With the difference that the UK's political systems were robust enough to basically projectile vomit her out of the body politic, whereas America's institutions aren't able to do the same.

I wish people would stop referring to Trump as transactional. Transactional is: I will sell my house for the most amount of money regardless of the buyer's circumstances or if they are a mate. Trump is: I don't care about the price so long as I feel that I've got the better of the buyer.