Labour does so badly in this poll mainly because, as the tables show, they lose 29% of their 2024 vote to the Lib Dems and Greens. Only 8% goes to Reform, just ahead of the 6% to the Cons. Those Lab–Con switchers push the Tories over 20%, despite them losing a quarter of their 2024 vote to Reform.

The commentary says "People switching from Labour are heavily motivated by tactical considerations with 30% saying this is the primary reason for their switch" yet the new voting system doesn't need tactical votes to keep out Reform. If Lab can communicate this, they might get a few votes back.

Bus usage has been increasing across the North – but one of the biggest increases has been seen in Greater Manchester. Is this a result of @andyburnham.bsky.social taking buses back into public control? And are there other reasons for optimism? Short 🧵 1/4

Completely agree. For me, private school changed my life because I came from a poor family, the government paid my fees and state schools in London at the time were poor. But it will add much less value to a kid from a wealthy family who could get them into what are now, very good state schools.

Partly the problem is "party people already suspect might be racist is led by someone suspected of racism" is less of a story than "party which tells everyone else not to be racist doesn't deal with racism in its own ranks". Left wing parties are inevitably going to be held to a higher standard.

I think the reason Trump is so bad at peace making is he can't understand why people fight wars - because he can't comprehend why people are willing to die for a cause greater than themselves. He doesn't get why an (apparently) weaker party (eg Ukraine) won't just concede (eg give up the Donbas).

Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters. We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk). But that doesn't tell the full story. Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):

This statement not acceptable and I suspect not sustainable. Large majority of public support principle of asylum, support letting people stay permanently. Majority for that among Labour and other progressive parties’ voters is overwhelming. The Reform voters this is aimed at will never vote Labour

There is little public understanding about what local authorities spend their money on (ie principally adult social care). Labour Together's polling finds people think it takes up 13% of council spending, in fact it's 39%. And they overestimate admin costs. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...

Further thought on Caerphilly: it's a grim result for Labour because it has been replaced as the progressive party most likely to beat Reform in Wales. But the *scale* of the collapse of Labour's vote is a much bigger problem for Reform, because it shows the level of tactical voting against them.

Particularly notable that Reform was beaten in a high turnout election. At May's locals they seem to have benefitted from turning out people who did not vote in 2024 - looks like we're now seeing a similar turnout among more progressive voters, motivated to beat them.

Enjoyed doing this podcast with @davehillonlondon.bsky.social. I made the point that Labour can't afford to lose its support in London. Right now 14% of the seats it won in 2024 are in the capital. But in the latest @yougov.co.uk MRP this rises to over a third of the 144 seats Labour keeps.

I accept that even the Tories can't out-Reform Reform on immigration, but is it a totally crazy pitch for them to say to Con/Ref considerers "sure, we aren't as hard line on immigration as Reform, but we are pretty tough, and importantly we are not completely batshit on the the economy."

Interesting that Reform, which is currently 10+ points ahead in the polls, has accused Starmer of "scholastic terrorism" apparently without being worried that it is labelling the Labour/Reform considerers it needs to attract as supporters of terrorism.

Thoughts on the potential impact of a Your Party/Green pact versus the parties standing separately. Standing independently hurts Labour the most, but overwhelmingly the beneficiary is likely to be Reform. OTOH a pact helps Your Party in a handful of seats. Neither scenario really helps the Greens.

The problem with the Ukraine-Russia negotiations is that Trump completely fails to grasp that the aims of the two sides are totally incompatible, and he needs to decide which side he actually wants to win. Ukraine wants to be a sovereign, thriving state. Russia ideally wants to subjugate Ukraine.

It turns out that the vast majority (around 80%) of the public don't know which parties are (currently) likely to be the top challengers for their constituency, which could make effective tactical voting verrrry difficult, as I note here: labourlist.org/2025/08/tact...

I'd really recommend actually reading Ian's substack before passing any comment. It's thoughtful, offers some excellent advice and is generally an antidote to the kind of crap peddled to young men from the charlatans and the radical right.

Am quoted in @labourlist.bsky.social on the Return of Stevenage Woman, making the point that the biggest group of voters which Labour is currently losing is not to Reform, but to "Don't Know". labourlist.org/2025/07/stev...

Wrote this on the big problem that the hard right have with London - if ethnic diversity and high levels of migration really are the major causes of decline in the UK, then why is the region with the greatest diversity and largest number of migrants, doing so well?

Reform's policies are designed for maximum political appeal but are economically bonkers. This *should* hurt them badly in an election campaign, so long as we still have some semblance of normal politics - unlike, say, in the US where Trump's destructive economic agenda was simply ignored.

The rise of Nigel Farage could lead you to believe that a more abrasive way of doing politics is popular. So, we wanted to test: Does the public want politicians to swear more? Should politicians try to be more colourful, by using more colourful language? The answer is ‘no’(-ish). A thread 🧵:

So many genuine problems facing the UK - neither the government nor individuals have enough money, poor public services, threats from hostile foreign powers. That parts of the right obssess about "too many brown people in London" speaks volumes about their lack of solutions to the real problems.

The bust-ups on the populist right — Musk vs Trump in the US, and Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf vs MP Sarah Pochin are fundamentally about ideological splits - one between small-state libertarians and economic populists, the other between those embracing racial politics and those aiming for respectability.

The idea that apocalyptic levels of demographic change are destroying Britain are always undermined by proponents citing stats on ethnicity from London. When London is the richest region in the country and is broadly at ease - even celebratory - of its diversity. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...

Today @labourtogether.bsky.social called for a Digital ID for all UK citizens and residents. There are many good reasons for this - convenience, efficiency of public services, avoiding another Windrush scandal, but also the impact on perceptions of migration. www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...

@economist.com this week quotes Labour Together's research which found that voters are supremely pessimistic about high prices, thinking that they're here forever. If some energy prices *do* fall (as they are predicted to do) this could be a rare upside surprise for voters.

If this is the analysis from Conservatives (from BBC) they are in even more trouble than I imagined - this is basic innumeracy! Even if you start from the (incorrect) assumption that most Ref voters are ex-Labour, then Labour doing better just brings them back to Lab, it has no impact on Con vote.

The two main reasons that people voted Labour in GE2024 (including those who have now switched to Reform) was because they hoped Labour would deal with the cost of living and poor public services. Worth bearing in mind when looking for reasons why people are switching away from Labour.

This is excellent research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social. Urge everyone to read for an *informed* take on the voters Labour is losing to Reform.

There was consensus that GE2024 was a valence election ie decided on the (in)competence of the government. Yet commentary focuses on ideology to explain current polling (Lab losing to Ref on immigration, or losing to Greens/LDs on progressive issues) rather than perceptions of competence.

Astonishing analysis here from Tory peer Lord Hayward. The governing party is down 10 points in the polls since the election, he predicts will lose few seats the local elections, while the supposed main Opposition party loses half its seats - and apparently this is a massive problem for... Labour!

Voters deserting mainstream parties is driven by the belief that politicians lie and fail to deliver on promises. Communicating badly constructed policy, which doesn't deliver the results voters expect, just to get attention and look decisive is bad politics. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

NEW 🧵 A quick thread of charts showing how Trump’s economic agenda is going so far: 1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively. These are the worst ratings for any US government’s economic policy since records began.

This is all feeling very Liz Truss. With the difference that the UK's political systems were robust enough to basically projectile vomit her out of the body politic, whereas America's institutions aren't able to do the same.

I wish people would stop referring to Trump as transactional. Transactional is: I will sell my house for the most amount of money regardless of the buyer's circumstances or if they are a mate. Trump is: I don't care about the price so long as I feel that I've got the better of the buyer.

If you want to win an election against far right opposition you need to bring together two groups. The activated liberals outraged by the other side and the more moderate groups who want govt to make their lives less difficult. Not by trying to win the enthusiastic supporters of the other side.

@labourtogether.bsky.social research last year, found that British people are enthusiastic about migrants gaining UK citizenship. Our "Migration in the Age of Insecurity" report showed people see migrants as contributing more if they become citizens. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

What's being missed in the "Reform is really bad for Labour" narrative, is that Reform is *really, really* bad for the Conservatives. The new FocalData MRP has Lab scraping a minority government, but the Cons on significantly fewer seats than Corbyn won in 2019. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

As we’re all doing Brexit today, here’s my big take: Sovereignty was always more important to Leavers than immigration and that’s even more true now than it was in 2016. Advocates of a closer relationship with the EU need to bear that in mind. Here’s graphs from a @yougov.co.uk survey in Nov.

Largely agree with Luke, but it's a shame this issue became caught up in the culture wars which inevitably dumbed it down into binary opposites (always be in office vs never be in office) rather than a more balanced debate about how both staff and employers can get the best out hybrid working.

This @britishfuture.bsky.social event with Frank Sharry and @christabelcoops.bsky.social was excellent. Constructive discussion based on evidence with substantive conclusions. Well worth reading this summary. www.britishfuture.org/lessons-from...

Just in from mammoth interview session to two bits of news. One that a DV perp got locked up because of something I did and that a vulnerable constituent had a a massive wrongful debt written off after our intervention. This is why I came to politics, this is why I'll just keep cracking on.

My 19 yo son wrote for @labourlist.bsky.social on why young men are attracted to Reform. The commentariat talk a lot about this phenomenon, but we rarely hear from the young men themselves. What struck me was that although "anti-woke" is part of it, so is economics. labourlist.org/2025/01/news...

Honestly I'd seriously consider retitling this "Kemi Badenoch's Tory party Is Stuck in a Right Wing Doom Loop That Will Only Help Nigel Farage."

I live next to a BP petrol station that has just reopened as an EV charging station. Loads of EVs have been driving in and out all day and honestly, it's making me feel quite hopeful about the extraordinary ability of human beings to adapt and change their behaviours when faced with threat.

Difficult to express how glad I am, that Robert Jenrick is not the leader of one of our major parties. To cast blame on all migrants for the actions of one person is pretty much undiluted racism. White people are - correctly - not collectively blamed for the crimes of individual white people.

Great substack from Peter Kellner based on our data from Labour Together's General Election report, highlighting the extent of tactical voting and how much the GE2024 result reflected people voting *against* the Conservatives. open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...

This chart, from the latest Compass report, purports to show that there is an almost neverending progressive majority in the UK... by treating the Lib Dems as progressives during the time when they were part of a coalition with the Conservatives which implemented austerity.

Do follow my talented (and well-connected!) colleagues at Labour Together.