Data is available upon request … but only in the form of one hundred non sequential 3.5” floppy disks containing a segmented zip file, inside of which are confusingly named files that can only be opened using the 1996 application StatView for Apple Mackintosh. Enclose a cashiers check for postage.

All reminiscent of liberals’ paralysis pre-2016. Complacency + dismissive contempt for Farage + dislike of incumbents + embarrassment in defending the status quo.

I'm not sure this should be a 'true question' for liberals at all! Irrespective of public opinion, the liberal defends minority rights.

Feel like we should bring back the old twitter follow friday to boost good people on here who maybe didn't get an initial boost from the starter packs. So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.

Constantly amazed at the desperation to make “young men love Reform a thing”, despite all evidence to contrary

I don't disagree with the first two sentences, but I think in general there's been far too much movement from 'not really noticing the problem' to 'despair'. Let's experiment with 'people and organisations try and enforce the norm' and then see if it is actually hard for it to be re-bottled.

The story of the weekend looks like about 3000+ people protesting asylum, 2000+ counterprotestors while 210k people do parkrun

I suppose this is the point when I should say again that: the amount of money the videogames industry brings into the UK economy every year is *more than double* the value of the fishing and steel industries *combined* what this country is really good at is producing culture

This would be a strong entry in normal years, but unfortunately for Maurice, the bar for “vapid and useless suggestions to the UK’s soluble problems” is now set at “remigration”. Good luck in next year’s tournament, Mo!

I spent the day with Curtis Yarvin and the "dissident right" at a garden party in Surrey and wrote quite a few words about it. My cover story for today’s FT Magazine on.ft.com/4ooXS4t [GIFT LINK! 🎁]

New post: "The Radicalisation Spiral" Why are so many people becoming radicalised? Is there any way to stop it? With an antivaxxer running the US health dept + extreme discourse dominating politics it's an increasingly pressing question. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

4 year olds verdict on rural streets: “It’s not ideal there’s no pavement. When people wake up here they need to remember there’s no safe place for buggies.”

New post just out: "Britain isn't broken" We have our problems but the doomerism is getting out of hand. I look at the real picture on crime, migration, social cohesion and the economy - rather than the dsyoptian fantasies of the radical right. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...

How many Britons believe in supernatural creatures or phenomenon? Hypnotism: 60% say definitely/probably real Karma: 38% Ghosts: 38% Telepathy: 30% Reiki: 30% Astrology: 23% Witches: 21% Speaking to dead: 20% Magic: 19% Crystal healing: 17% Loch Ness monster: 12% Vampires: 8% Werewolves: 8%

Not impossible you could get to a place where both Reform and Tories are proposing to get rid of the triple lock and Labour keeping it despite being third in the pensioner vote.

This is about as comprehensive as you could want from Patrick English on the voting intentions of 16/17-yr-olds patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...

🚨🚨NEW🚨🚨 On my Substack, I examine differences in the political values of 18–30-year-old men and women using European Social Survey (ESS) data. As others have noted, young women are becoming more left-liberal than young men. But then I find something curious... 1/6

Very clear explainer from MHCLG on the detail behind the 340 page English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill. There will be lots of analysis over the coming days and weeks, but it is safe to say that this is a huge step forward in giving power to places. www.gov.uk/government/p...

Sure Start was one of the biggest achievements of the last Labour government. Until it was gutted over the last 14 years. Evaluation by the @theifs.bsky.social found huge benefits to the programme. This included higher educational attainment, increased wages and lower hospitalisations. 1/2

The lesson here: if you believe a policy will deliver big and meaningful benefits then just ignore the polling and do it. Voters often don’t know what they want until they have it.

Who voted for Zohran Mamdani? I wrote up some of the precinct-level data I posted on here: owenwinter.co.uk/2025/06/29/w...

“you come up with a mean nickname to call this guy on TV?” “sure did boss, real fuckin sexy just like you asked”

The art of crisis comms

Entirely predictable reaction from Britain's maga media. But makes you think, if they were going to react like this anyway what was the cost to Starmer of going bigger.

We’re thrilled to unveil the Hospice UK Garden of Compassion at #RHSChelsea today. Fully-funded by @projectgivingback.bsky.social, it's the result of a year of hard work by the garden’s award-winning designer Tom Hoblyn and his expert planting, design & landscaping teams Mark Whyman Landscapes.

It’s almost as if she’s forgotten who was in power in the years after the referendum www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05...

I think there’s a deep intuition that the Labour Party’s actual voting base is the ‘wrong one’ and it should be the one it had in the 1970s/80s. What’s funny is this is the opposite of what the Conservatives did, when they abandoned their old yuppies/managerial base.

If you want to understand British politics, please can I urge you to read this paper. It is essential to understanding Labour's troubles, Reform's success, Conservative woes. Briefly, the Brexit realignment accentuated two blocs. When the two-party share fell, voters switched *within* the blocs.

My initial, unprocessed, thoughts on the results. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

So happy to finally announce our CPE BlueSky account! Please, follow us to know our activities, courses, lectures, workshops, coming forward as we slowly move from the other network to this one. You can find more info on the CPE in our page: www.southampton.ac.uk/research/ins...

🇨🇦 Polls are open in Canada! Our final forecast gives the Liberals an 88% chance of winning the election www.economist.com/interactive/...

I'd say she's lost the plot, but that would imply that there was a time she'd actually found it. Truly extraordinary.

This will end with kids dying and being left damaged and disabled for life by diseases basic science has cured. RFK Jr will be gone sooner or later (ideally sooner) but nothing will bring those kids back or repair the damage done to their families.

Here’s how this would look under FPP

I’m just a girl standing in front of a boy telling him it’s not true he has become more right-wing… it is me who has become more left-wing 🫠

New poll from Labour Together that really underlines just how utterly negligent it was not to change the electoral system for mayors back to ranked voting.

@labourtogether.bsky.social have just published our recent poll of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority. A write up can be found here: inews.co.uk/news/politic... Data tables, here: static1.squarespace.com/static/64f70...

A principle component analysis of petition signatures gives you quite a nice political compass. Axis 1 is dominated by "Call a General Election" (right-wing) while axis 2 is anti-VAT on private schools in one direction and "suspend all immigration" in the other.

We are very happy to publish the "National Elections Database," including the results of 1,023 presidential and 2,962 parliamentary elections conducted worldwide since 1946! www.nationalelectionsdatabase.com with Benjamin Marx and Vincent Rollet

Good morning S&P 500

*brainwashed

📢 New report out today! 📢 ➡️ Access the report here: repec-cepeo.ucl.ac.uk/cepeow/cepeo... 📊 What did we find? 🔸 Most of the socio-economic background (SEB) and ethnic inequalities in entry to professional occupations are driven by employer-side decisions made during the recruitment process

How does Reform UK fare in tactical voting scenarios against other parties? Reform vs Labour Lab: 35% Reform: 31% Reform vs Conservative Con: 26% Reform: 25% Reform vs Lib Dem Lib Dem: 36% Reform: 29% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Outlier is the annual #dataviz conference hosted by @datavizsociety.bsky.social and speaker applications for 2025 are finally open! The theme - Reimagining - invites all sorts of topics, from reimagining how we work to innovations in design. Can't wait for June!! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Fantastic

This tweet has more retweets than the number actual votes cast

As @robfordmancs.bsky.social has shown, this policy has little popular support, because most Brits think it is spiteful and unfair. Moreover, it would be bad for cohesion and integration - and wouldn't even reduce immigration. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Did some Hansard crunching for Catherine Nixey's entertaining piece on Parliamentary debate: www.economist.com/britain/2025... "Parliament’s benches are less a place to go to pose questions than to pose for clips on X. This House seems to believe old-fashioned debating is a waste of time."

Hyper partisan content thrives on social media, increasing affective polarisation and poisoning political discourse. Our new paper @lewan.bsky.social, @almogsi.bsky.social, Dawn Holford, just out in @commspsychol.bsky.social, finds that inoculation interventions may help us tackle the problem. 🧵