Don't think people realise quite how deeply split by age current voting intention is. This is the latest YouGov for under-50s: Green: 26% Lab: 18% Reform: 14% Tories: 12% LD: 11% And over 50s: Reform: 36% Tory: 22% Lab: 16% LD: 12% Greens: 9%

With the UK govt in turmoil, you might be wondering what happens when parties change leaders... and we have just the paper for you! Check out this note by Ron Johnston, Todd Hartman and Charles Pattie on how leaders can shape perceptions of parties and attract or repel voters. bit.ly/4wwoOTF

Social media is no longer social. Most of it is passive viewing of videos and pictures from people we've never met. But we're still studying social media like it's 2010. We've entered the post-social media era — and research needs to catch up. osf.io/preprints/so... preprint w/ Richard Rogers

🚨 New research alert 🚨 Check out this paper by Thiago do Nascimento Fonseca, @deborathome.bsky.social and @guedesneto.bsky.social on how financial incentives can boost diversity. Brazil’s party funding reform increased nominations of women and Afro-descendants, but funding gains were uneven ⬇️

🌟 The UK Youth Poll 2026 is here! 🌟 Young people no longer think their lives will be better than their parents’. They want better politics & financial stability. 📊 Read the #UKYouthPoll2026 now: www.ukyouthpoll.com @glasgow.ac.uk @nationwideuk.bsky.social @focaldata.bsky.social

fantastic evening at the House of Commons yesterday celebrating the launch of the @johnsmithcentre.com UK Youth Poll 2026! looking forward to digging into this excellent data

Varie testate scrivono che la vittoria del NO sia stata "trascinata" dai giovani ma, dati alla mano, il contributo più ampio è arrivato dagli anziani. E se i giovani non avessero votato affatto, avrebbe comunque vinto il NO. lauraserra.co.uk/il-no-e-stat...

Varie testate scrivono che la vittoria del NO sia stata "trascinata" dai giovani ma, dati alla mano, il contributo più ampio è arrivato dagli anziani. E se i giovani non avessero votato affatto, avrebbe comunque vinto il NO. lauraserra.co.uk/il-no-e-stat...

I wrote a few words

my latest piece on the voting age reform, where I reiterate why the measure is a fundamentally good thing, respond to criticism that it redefines what “children” are in UK law, and highlight the importance of ensuring effective, rather than just nominal, enfranchisement ⬇️⬇️⬇️

my latest piece on the voting age reform, where I reiterate why the measure is a fundamentally good thing, respond to criticism that it redefines what “children” are in UK law, and highlight the importance of ensuring effective, rather than just nominal, enfranchisement ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Da leggere se si e' indecisi, ma forse anche se si e' decisi. lauraserra.co.uk/perche-dico-...

Following the Green Party's victory in the Gorton and Denton byelection, Labour is facing a more serious challenge on its left than on its right. @lauraserra.bsky.social and Jenevieve Treadwell trace the movement of voters to the left. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

In a new pre-print, @fraraffaelli.bsky.social and I ask: what are the effects of anti-immigration appeals that portray migrants as a threat to a native group (e.g. the working class or Christians)? TL;DR: people change their *identity* to back up their attitudes to migrants. osf.io/preprints/so...

Vannacci defects to Reform

a) a century is not a long time in the context of the UK parliament and the law b) it's only a century old if you count the 1911 Parliament Act and ignore the 1949 Parliament Act which amended it c) Parliament Acts are established parts of the UK system- reporting them as "old" is a weird framing

This is just ridiculous. There is no political space for a party that has the same positions as Reform. This space is taken. There is a space for a centre-right political party in the UK, but it’s currently vacant: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

life these days

Robert Jenrick: an apology. thecritic.co.uk/fran...

In case you missed it, here is mine and Jen’s latest piece on how Labour’s vote is fragmenting across two of its strongholds: London and the youth ⬇️

💡New! With the creation of Your Party and the Greens’ soaring popularity, @lauraserra.bsky.social and Jenevieve Treadwell trace the movement of voters to the left, and argue that Labour is facing a more serious challenge on its left than on its right. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

Overall, we find that immigration looks important in polls because it’s highly salient, not because it outranks daily concerns. Polling captures the salience, but requires a bit of digging to see the whole picture of public priority. You can read more here!: www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...

The only Legitimate Concerns about asylum seekers are concerns for their well being and safety. For a rich country like ours to incessantly whine about these people as if we are their victims is perhaps the single most pathetic spectacle in British politics over the past quarter century.

🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.

🚨 🆕 analysis w/ @turnbulldugarte.com: most British young men reject the far right @ukandeu.bsky.social Despite media claims, 71% of young men & 75% of young women say they’d never vote Reform UK. The gender gap exists, but it’s steady across ages—not youth-driven. 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...

Print and send this chart (from your newsletter on Tuesday) to every household in the country.

Hollow laughter

Today is #WorldPostDay, marking the establishment of the Universal Postal Union—a UN agency coordinating postal policies globally. The post revolutionised communication and is an increasingly common voting method, so to mark the occasion, here are some of our recent articles on postal voting... 📫 ✉️

Politics is not like selling biscuits, where the task is to find out what people like & flog it to them. It's a moral activity. It's about arguing for the things you believe in. It's about *shaping* the "median voter". Farage has moved the centre-ground of politics. His opponents can move it back.

I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

And that’s a wrap for another EPOP – my all time favourite conference 🫶🏼 Always the greatest pleasure to reconnect with this lovely bunch of people, meet new ones and share ideas over panels and (too many) late nights

what if I don't really care about career stuff but instead actively enjoy choosing to live in a smaller place because I get to be surrounded by interesting people and music and culture and art and things to do! what then Bloomberg!!!!

We took a close look at Split Ticket's WAR metric, which has become influential in Democratic circles for suggesting moderates significantly outperform progressives. Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵

Glad to see increased reporting on the disconnect between reality and the public perception of reality. "If you could choose any era to live in Britain, but not your place in society, you’d choose right now" www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

A very interesting piece on growing youth far-right support in Latin America (including a couple of quotes from myself and @casmudde.bsky.social), and on how this party family differs from their European cousins. www.connectas.org/analisis/der...

I was on Swiss TV news the other day discussing the British electoral reform and where it sits in broader trends

A very enjoyable and topical read for anyone wondering what the implications of lowering the voting age might be - featuring some of my research on generational shifts in values and voting behaviour! Give it a read ⬇️⬇️⬇️

The govt's reforming democracy paper isn't perfect, but it's a serious attempt to make registration easier, to reduce barriers to participation and to increase the number of people voting. That's a very welcome contrast with the last govt's approach to electoral reform. www.gov.uk/government/p...

📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨 "School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support" Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1080/0140... 🧵👇

My first time at #ISPP! Excited to present our research on generations and electoral psychology this weekend. Hit me up if you are also in Prague and want to hang 🤗

South Korea gender divide update 😲 Young men lean right by 50 points (74% conservative vs 24% centre-left) Young women lean left by 22 points (58% centre-left vs 36% cons)

follow me for more insightful and sophisticated quotes

This is superb. “There is only one system that has ever truly protected Jews over time, and that is liberalism” “Illiberalism always turns on Jews. There are no significant counterexamples. In the end, authoritarians protect Jews until they don’t.”

The Italian referendum ballot papers are so cute I kinda want to keep them

New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social where I look at the impact of parties’ age-targeted group appeals on age gaps in voting🧵

How researchers at Bocconi guessed the Pope using network analysis ⬇️ www.unibocconi.it/en/news/netw...

Even before the local elections, Reform was surging in the polls. But will it be possible for the Party to turn those numbers into actual power in Westminster? @lauraserra.bsky.social and Jenevieve Treadwell highlight the dynamics of Reform’s would be voters. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

British PM Keir Starmer confirmed his government will introduce legislation to lower the voting age to 16, which gives me the opportunity to plug this blog for @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social I wrote last summer on why that would be a very good thing ⬇️ blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...