Vannacci defects to Reform

a) a century is not a long time in the context of the UK parliament and the law b) it's only a century old if you count the 1911 Parliament Act and ignore the 1949 Parliament Act which amended it c) Parliament Acts are established parts of the UK system- reporting them as "old" is a weird framing

This is just ridiculous. There is no political space for a party that has the same positions as Reform. This space is taken. There is a space for a centre-right political party in the UK, but it’s currently vacant: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

life these days

Robert Jenrick: an apology. thecritic.co.uk/fran...

In case you missed it, here is mine and Jen’s latest piece on how Labour’s vote is fragmenting across two of its strongholds: London and the youth ⬇️

💡New! With the creation of Your Party and the Greens’ soaring popularity, @lauraserra.bsky.social and Jenevieve Treadwell trace the movement of voters to the left, and argue that Labour is facing a more serious challenge on its left than on its right. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

Overall, we find that immigration looks important in polls because it’s highly salient, not because it outranks daily concerns. Polling captures the salience, but requires a bit of digging to see the whole picture of public priority. You can read more here!: www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...

The only Legitimate Concerns about asylum seekers are concerns for their well being and safety. For a rich country like ours to incessantly whine about these people as if we are their victims is perhaps the single most pathetic spectacle in British politics over the past quarter century.

🚨 New paper with Maria Grasso on generational shifts in political values. Despite talk of rising age polarisation, we show that gaps in attitudes are stable or even narrowing. Economic attitudes move in cycles, while social values have become more liberal – mainly due to generational replacement.

🚨 🆕 analysis w/ @turnbulldugarte.com: most British young men reject the far right @ukandeu.bsky.social Despite media claims, 71% of young men & 75% of young women say they’d never vote Reform UK. The gender gap exists, but it’s steady across ages—not youth-driven. 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...

Print and send this chart (from your newsletter on Tuesday) to every household in the country.

Hollow laughter

Today is #WorldPostDay, marking the establishment of the Universal Postal Union—a UN agency coordinating postal policies globally. The post revolutionised communication and is an increasingly common voting method, so to mark the occasion, here are some of our recent articles on postal voting... 📫 ✉️

Politics is not like selling biscuits, where the task is to find out what people like & flog it to them. It's a moral activity. It's about arguing for the things you believe in. It's about *shaping* the "median voter". Farage has moved the centre-ground of politics. His opponents can move it back.

I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

And that’s a wrap for another EPOP – my all time favourite conference 🫶🏼 Always the greatest pleasure to reconnect with this lovely bunch of people, meet new ones and share ideas over panels and (too many) late nights

what if I don't really care about career stuff but instead actively enjoy choosing to live in a smaller place because I get to be surrounded by interesting people and music and culture and art and things to do! what then Bloomberg!!!!

We took a close look at Split Ticket's WAR metric, which has become influential in Democratic circles for suggesting moderates significantly outperform progressives. Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵

Glad to see increased reporting on the disconnect between reality and the public perception of reality. "If you could choose any era to live in Britain, but not your place in society, you’d choose right now" www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

A very interesting piece on growing youth far-right support in Latin America (including a couple of quotes from myself and @casmudde.bsky.social), and on how this party family differs from their European cousins. www.connectas.org/analisis/der...

I was on Swiss TV news the other day discussing the British electoral reform and where it sits in broader trends

A very enjoyable and topical read for anyone wondering what the implications of lowering the voting age might be - featuring some of my research on generational shifts in values and voting behaviour! Give it a read ⬇️⬇️⬇️

The govt's reforming democracy paper isn't perfect, but it's a serious attempt to make registration easier, to reduce barriers to participation and to increase the number of people voting. That's a very welcome contrast with the last govt's approach to electoral reform. www.gov.uk/government/p...

📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨 "School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support" Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1080/0140... 🧵👇

My first time at #ISPP! Excited to present our research on generations and electoral psychology this weekend. Hit me up if you are also in Prague and want to hang 🤗

South Korea gender divide update 😲 Young men lean right by 50 points (74% conservative vs 24% centre-left) Young women lean left by 22 points (58% centre-left vs 36% cons)

follow me for more insightful and sophisticated quotes

This is superb. “There is only one system that has ever truly protected Jews over time, and that is liberalism” “Illiberalism always turns on Jews. There are no significant counterexamples. In the end, authoritarians protect Jews until they don’t.”

The Italian referendum ballot papers are so cute I kinda want to keep them

New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social where I look at the impact of parties’ age-targeted group appeals on age gaps in voting🧵

How researchers at Bocconi guessed the Pope using network analysis ⬇️ www.unibocconi.it/en/news/netw...

Even before the local elections, Reform was surging in the polls. But will it be possible for the Party to turn those numbers into actual power in Westminster? @lauraserra.bsky.social and Jenevieve Treadwell highlight the dynamics of Reform’s would be voters. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

British PM Keir Starmer confirmed his government will introduce legislation to lower the voting age to 16, which gives me the opportunity to plug this blog for @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social I wrote last summer on why that would be a very good thing ⬇️ blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

New paper out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social w/ @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jwfurlong.bsky.social What drives the link between university study and attitudinal change? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

We have had nearly two decades of panic about Free Speech on Campus and not a single case, not even the ones they made up, were as bad as what's happening now

The unifying problem in so much commentary is thinking America's problems can be solved by reforming (the admittedly highly imperfect) Democratic Party. But I think the evidence strongly indicates that to have a healthy Democracy, you need a healthy center-right party.

I’m just a girl standing in front of a boy telling him it’s not true he has become more right-wing… it is me who has become more left-wing 🫠

My article with @robjohns75.bsky.social, "Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future", is now out open access at @polbehavior.bsky.social. It's about the psychology of expecting good things to happen in politics. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Fascinating analysis from the FT today on youth discontent with their governments. Article singles out the US but the highest levels of discontent are actually in Greece and Italy.

Having a lovely time at the EU science fair “Science Is Wonderful!”, made all the better by seeing how excited kids and teenagers get about democracy and elections 💙✨ If you are in Brussels come check us out at Booth 54 tomorrow! Marie Curie herself popped over to say hi 🤪

Reform is poised to be Labour’s biggest contender at the Runcorn by-election. How did they grow so quickly across the country? In this blog, myself and Jenevieve Treadwell dig into the areas where their support is growing, and the groups most likely to lend them their vote ⬇️

I was interviewed by @elconfidencial.bsky.social on why we are seeing growing far-right support across young voters www.elconfidencial.com/mundo/2025-0...

Wow! DIe Linke does much better than expected, while both CDU and AfD fall below symbolically important 30% and 20%, respectively. FDP might still make it, BSW less likely. Grand Coalition is possible but narrow margins... #BTW25 #GermanElection

As in other countries, the far right with strong gains among the young. The idea that far right support is largely driven by authoritarian older voters against the progressive younger ones is being refuted in every election at the moment.

As Germany heads to the polls on Sunday, here are some articles we have published on German elections that can guide you through what to expect… 🗳️ 📊

Another excellent piece by @iandunt.bsky.social on Trump, Putin and the pervasive threat to our democracies they pose. If you read anything today make it this. open.substack.com/pub/iandunt/...

New paper on the most disproportionate UK election: how Labour doubled its seat share with a 1.6 point increase in vote share in 2024! With @profjanegreen.bsky.social Out now in @politicalquarterly.bsky.social Link: doi.org/10.1111/1467... Short thread below🧵