My Grand Theory of Politics and Society is that 60-70% of changes in elites’, and especially conservative elites’, behaviour can be attributed to the fact that none of them genuinely believe they might be going to Hell anymore.

its-a coming home 👌

Individualism. The issue is runaway individualism. In both benign and unhealthy ways, we are constantly asked to take more meticulous care of ourselves, at all costs and before everyone else. There are opportunity costs to that.

With the exception of the evangelicals, libertarians are among those who come out the worst of the Trump era. Never mind Reason - which no one reads. All relevant libertarian actors - AEI, the Kochs, tech, crypto, the NRA, Rand Paul - grovelled to lick the boot. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/o...

"The optimal electoral strategy for Labour (which I dislike with a passion and didn't vote for) is being better at politics and adopting all the policy positions I agree with anyway."

Retrospectively, it seems inevitable. dukechronicle.com/article/duke...

Lib Dems winning here #japan

Russia’s full-scale invasion began 4 years ago. It began in winter, and so this winter is the 5th. And, for civilians, the worst. Russia launches missiles and drones at energy infrastructure to force Ukrainians to endure the freezing cold. Here's how you can help snyder.substack.com/p/the-long-u...

I love how National R’s are learning the lesson and name of Senator Louise Lucas that Youngkin learned over the course of his term. I kinda think that anyone who has “gerontocracy Dems bad” arguments needs to wrestle with the spectacular legislative effectiveness of Lucas.

The moral panic about young men is the new version of “UKIP is winning over former Labour voters” (also a Goodwin argument). Both rely on anecdote more than data, and do significant damage to public understanding of the radical right. Young men are the second *least* pro-Reform group in the UK.

I'm at day 2 of using Claude Code, and - yes - it's as good as everyone says.

I don’t want to laugh at a small business but also VERY funny

Impressionable years and lasting votes 👶 @leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social argue that people exposed to high #Immigration salience when young are more like to consider a party's standing later in life, highlighting generation difference in #Voting patterns buff.ly/py9IYUS

🚨New publication! Thrilled to finally see this paper out in @psrm.bsky.social 🎉 📊I study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.

5/5 PMs with approval ratings of measles isn't just a feature of failed leadership. It's Brexit Britain. There's no money for anything people want and were promised they would have, and no one can blame the people who got us into this mess because they got 52% of the vote (let alone reverse it).

New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social. I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. 🗳️ www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

This quote from a Reform UK councillor sums it up beautifully. Cross-boundary moral outrages, exported online and sold (especially, but not exclusively) to generations that grew up before the internet, are such a central feature of radicalisation today. www.kentonline.co.uk/maidstone/ne...

Peter Mandelbrot. It’s just infinite scandals the more you zoom in.

Just a quick note to @greenparty.org.uk and @greenpartyhan.bsky.social - I was not consulted on being quoted on your leaflets and I have not endorsed your campaign (or any campaign in this seat). I think this note, like the bar chart next to it, is misleading and out of context.

Prevent Russia-funded radical-right parties from gaining control of Europe’s entire nuclear arsenal by 2029 with this ONE SIMPLE TRICK the fascists DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW. (It’s PR. France and Britain should just adopt PR, like now.)

When an email makes your day.

Partisan polling is the canary in the coalmine of democratic backsliding (or at least, a member of the aria of canaries). Scholars and the media should be much more forceful in drawing a line between those who measure (however imperfectly) public opinion and those who try to sway it.

#OpenAccess from @psrm.bsky.social - Partners in government: politicians’ gender preferences in coalition formation - https://cup.org/4bs1hva - @albahuidobro.bsky.social#OpenAccess #FirstView

why is everyone doing research at the intersection, get out of the way you're blocking the traffic

This past Winter Term, I taught an introductory class in Quantitative Methods at the University of Vienna. I think it went really well, so I’m sharing the course material (including editable slides and markdown files) for anyone that might be interested. ucloud.univie.ac.at/index.php/s/...

Really happy this work with @fraraffaelli.bsky.social found a home at EJPR. We show that growing up at times of high salience of immigration produces cohorts of voters who are more likely to vote for parties that they agree with specifically on immigration. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

In the midst of chaos, excited to share a new publication with @aeggers.bsky.social and Marko Klašnja, dx.doi.org/10.1111/lsq..... As usual, I write an embarrassing thread about my wonderful coauthors-- 🧵 (1/)

I know this isn't even the worst thing about them, but which merchant of chaos came up with the idea that the Unexpected Event During Survey (UEDS) design should be abbreviated as Unexpected Event during Survey Design (UESD), which sounds like the event happened during the design of the survey.

🚨Happy to finally see this out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social (with @leonardocarella.bsky.social) ⁉️ Does growing up when immigration is salient make people vote for parties they agree with on immigration *for the rest of their lives*? doi.org/10.1017/S147...

New Swingometer! The Gorton and Denton By-election: A tale of Two Manchesters open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

Remoaners like Liz Truss, Robert Jenrick and Matthew Goodwin should just accept they lost, shut up and go away.

#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social - From context to congruence: Immigration salience and voter socialization - https://cup.org/4rgNmNg - @leonardocarella.bsky.social & @fraraffaelli.bsky.social#OpenAccess #FirstView

Really happy this work with @fraraffaelli.bsky.social found a home at EJPR. We show that growing up at times of high salience of immigration produces cohorts of voters who are more likely to vote for parties that they agree with specifically on immigration. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

There are four Americas: Blue States, Red States, New Mexico and Mormons.

Don’t be all like eww you know you’d binge this.

Seeing several non-US online commentators justify (if not praise) threats of invasion, abductions, and now plain murders, just because they like Trump and dislike the left of their countries, I feel bad for when in grad school I thought Svolik was overstating the role of polarization.

She's in her chaotic era and I am living. www.youtube.com/shorts/GKl6M...

Imagine what’s happening in the camps.

I was a sensitive kid. I loved cats. I had OCD, undiagnosed. When I was 9, a fraternity brother tortured a cat to death in my hometown. The details even now are beyond imagination. archive.is/xdmUL I was traumatized for years from reading the news story. The torturer? Now the head of the NRA.

This is one of the strangest and most screwed-up stories I’ve worked on. www.londoncentric.media/p/tiktok-lon...

TikTok's new ownership's ties to Trump are a huge problem. It needn't turn into the fascist hell that is X: it's enough that immigration-related content becomes 10% more viral and cost-of-living-related content becomes 10% less viral in an election year. (gift link) www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/b...

How’s Brexit going…?

The power outages and freezing conditions in Ukraine right now are insane. Greenland news and war “coverage fatigue” not giving it the presence in headlines it deserves. The humanitarian impact is absolutely staggering.

Dangerous indoctrination going on in my classes

Gosh, you’re no Nazis or pornbots but some of you are pretty annoying.

🎤 The speaker for the 14th session of the PBC will be @leonardocarella.bsky.social, Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Vienna, who will be presenting “Electoral Systems' Effects on Participation beyond Turnout.” 📍 Join us on Zoom! Register here: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...

Trump gave Iranians false hopes. The words of the President of the United States used to mean something.

A reality check for those who go on about "a common EU foreign and defence policy" as a substitute to a security strategy *for the world we actually live in*: do you want people like Orbán to have any say on your security or even any access to your country's intel?