Very happy to share that I am going to be the new Director of the Democracy unit at the @wzb.bsky.social Berlin Social Science Center. I am excited to form a new research unit on democratic politics and to engage with people in Berlin and elsewhere to make liberal democracy more resilient.

@zeit.de (@tilsteff.bsky.social) mit einem einordnenden Beitrag zum Landesparteitag der AfD in Magdeburg, zu dem auch ich einige Sätze beitragen durfte. > Die AfD ist in Sachsen-Anhalt nicht nur normalisiert und etabliert, sondern auch in sich selbst gewöhnlicher geworden. tinyurl.com/2j4b96ey

🚨 New paper accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social: we were in the field while Brexit dominated British politics. Do MPs respond differently when constituents disagree with the party line? What we find surprised us: a null! url: osf.io/preprints/os...

Popular attitudes are often seen as a safeguard against democratic backsliding: if citizens don’t oppose lib democracy, politicians have little incentive to erode it. In @cpsjournal.bsky.social I argue that, while intuitive, this reasoning conflates two states of the world: doi.org/10.1177/0010...

The standard model of liberal, representative democracy is increasingly being challenged from the bottom and the top. In a new paper @Party Politics, Gidi Rahat and I seek to explain why political parties differ in the conception of democracy they advance. doi.org/10.1177/1354...

🌀 📊 How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes? 🗳️ @krausewe.bsky.social & @christinagahn.bsky.social examine how election polls can shape voter behaviour, from bandwagon effects to strategic voting, and why their influence is more complex than it first appears 🤔

Very happy to share that our paper "Political socialization and immigrants' support for progressive politics: the case of green parties" with @antvalentim.bsky.social is now published in @psrm.bsky.social! Link to paper: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Short summary in 🧵below: (1/5)

EPSS Travel Grants for 2026 Belfast conference: PhD students & junior scholars @ institutions in European countries that are often underrepresented, can apply for full fee waiver & £500 stipend Apply: lnkd.in/ehXjhCgf Deadline: March 8, 11:59pm GMT. More details: lnkd.in/eZTP5sWR

🗳️ Neue Prognose: Landtagswahlen in Baden-Württemberg (8. März) und Rheinland-Pfalz (22. März) BW: Kopf-an-Kopf CDU vs. Grüne. RP: CDU und SPD fast gleichauf. Unsere Modellvorhersage mit 5/6-Kredibilitätsintervallen und Szenario-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 👇 zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/f...

🚨 TADA Speaker Series Spring 2026 schedule is here! 🚨 We've assembled a fantastic lineup of researchers exploring the future of survey research in the age of LLMs. Mar 18 - May 27, online at 17:00 CEST. Join us! More info & signup: tada.cool

🧵on my new paper "Synthetic personas distort the structure of human belief systems" w Roberto Cerina I'm v excited about... 🚨 Do synthetic samples look like human samples? We compare 28 LLMs to the 2024 General Social Survey (GSS) to find out + develop host of diagnostics...

Very happy to see our new article “Reference groups and electoral behavior” (coauthored with Rune Stubager, Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard & Michael Lewis-Beck) published! Using ANES, DNES and AUTNES data, we show that liking or disliking social groups shapes vote choice.

Ich durfte in der @taz.de ein bisschen was zu Umfragen erzählen, und was soll ich sagen - Berichte über den Tod von Umfragen sind stark übertrieben...

We‘re very excited for the next edition of the Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim! ✨ Join us and apply until 1 March! More info in @melinscribe.bsky.social‘s thread below and here: summerschoolwpm.org Application form: sosci.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/wpm/

Going forward from today, I’ll stop publishing and just repost this meme regularly #AcademicWriting #farright #radicalright

NEW PAPER ALERT! My paper, with @bjornhoyland.bsky.social , on how “policy loss” shapes support for the EU has just been published in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Check it out! 1/

🧵 PhD position (75%) in Political Behavior / Political Communication / CSS 📍 LMU Munich | ⏳ 3 years | 🗓 start March–May 2026 We’re hiring for DemocraGPT, a @bidt.bsky.social-funded project developing an AI-based training for difficult conversations in times of growing polarization

The radical right’s master frame remains ethnic nationalism. Remigration is simply one of its logical consequences. First came stopping (or minimizing) immigration; next is pushing people with migrant backgrounds to leave. Expect further radicalization.

🚨 Postdoc in Comparative Politics/Public Opinion (2 years) We’re hiring a 100% Postdoc at the University of Greifswald. ✨ What makes this job special: Two full years to focus on research (no teaching, no admin overload) embedded into an International Research Training Group

The Christmas prepping was prepping, and I almost forgot to tell you that @miguelpereira.bsky.social is coming all the way to Münster to present work on politicians' ability to use evidence in policy making! This Wednesday, find the Zoom link below 👇 @danbischof.bsky.social @mwegemann.bsky.social

Die AfD scheint ihre Potentiale unter den Wählenden aktuell ausgeschöpft zu haben. Ob dies auch so bleibt hängt, insbesondere von den Regierungsparteien und ihren Signalen nach Rechtsaußen ab. @zeit.de mit einem spannenden Beitrag zum Thema, zu dem ich auch einige Einschätzungen beisteuern durfte.

🚨Job News: Postdoc positions in LSE Government Department 🚨 Apply to work with the brilliant and wonderful Carl Muller-Crepon @carlmc.bsky.social on his BORDERS ERC project at LSE @lsegovernment.bsky.social jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

📢📢 Happy to announce a new update to the PPEG database! The data now covers - > 3.000 parties - 1.100 parliamentary elections - 402 presidential elections - 2.044 cabinets across 73 countries (1945 - 2025, Oct 31). All info: ppeg.wzb.eu We hope that data is helpful to the community!

📢📢 Happy to announce a new update to the PPEG database! The data now covers - > 3.000 parties - 1.100 parliamentary elections - 402 presidential elections - 2.044 cabinets across 73 countries (1945 - 2025, Oct 31). All info: ppeg.wzb.eu We hope that data is helpful to the community!

Join us! Die Abteilung für Innenpolitik & Politische Soziologie sucht zum 01.04. eine*n neue*n Kollegin*en. Wir bieten: volle Promotionsstelle (EG13) für drei Jahre (Verlängerung um 3 Jahre möglich), flexible Arbeitszeitregelungen, kollegiales & forschungsstarkes Team. Mehr Informationen hier👇

AI is powered by Wikipedia, the world’s greatest online knowledge resource. For 25 years, editors around the world have shaped the knowledge that shapes the future. #Wikipedia25

The chapter with @gailmcelroy.bsky.social analyses issue salience and positions. Housing and health were among the most salient issues for nearly all parties. Interestingly, immigration barely featured in the manifestos. Chapter: hdl.handle.net/10197/29172 Book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

We're looking for a colleague (postdoc) 📢 @politikuhh.bsky.social 3+3 years Doing your own research while teaching 2.5 courses per semester Research agenda with links to our team (democracy, digital politics, political competition/behaviour) DL 🗓️ 05/01 stellen.uni-hamburg.de/jobposting/6...

A critique of our (w/ @bertous.bsky.social) paper “Instrumentally inclusive” has just been published. Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response. osf.io/rn6h3/files/...

Bis Mai kann man übrigens noch die komplette Doku "Shoah" (ca 9h) von Claude Lanzmann in der ARTE Mediathek ansehen: www.arte.tv/de/videos/01...

For the Guardian, @jonhenley.bsky.social reports on our new research briefs on the politics of housing. Current policies too often treat housing as an asset. Housing as a social right has nearly disappeared from the agenda of even progressive parties. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...

🎉 Kicking off the Zweitstimme.org Workshop! We’re looking forward to two days discussing new work on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behaviour. Today’s sessions: 👉 Panel I – Elites 👉 Panel II – Participation 👉 Panel III – Party Strategies Huge thanks to @hertieschool.bsky.social for hosting us!

❗ Reminder ❗ Apply now for our Visiting Fellowships! 📆 Deadline: 28 November! Please share widely 👇🙂

Excited to present ongoing work from my @dfg.de project "Powerful Polls" @uni-muenster.de on Wednesday (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social). Say hello if you are in Münster! Thanks for the invite & the fabulous organization @danbischof.bsky.social, @elenaleuschner.bsky.social & @mwegemann.bsky.social.

NEW - Regional Labor Markets, Residential Mobility, and Anti-Immigration Sentiment - https://cup.org/3XiB6yD - @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @sergipardos.bsky.social #OpenAccess

📄 New WP version out - full overhaul! The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social ) Comments welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...

We have just published the call for the Nuffield Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Politics. These are 3-year fully-funded postdocs that will allow you to focus on your research in a great academic environment. (And with excellent food) www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...

@spiegel.de berichtet über den Streit um das Lieferkettengesetz in der EU, bei dem die EVP eine mögliche Abstimmungsmehrheit mit den Rechtsaußen-Fraktionen nicht ausschließt. U.a. mit einer Einschätzung von mir zu den Gefahren einer fehlenden Einigung im Mitte-Lager. www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...

Haben Menschen früher rechter gedacht, als sie gewählt haben? Der Forscher Vicente Valentim sagt, dass wir eine Ursache für den Erfolg extrem rechter Parteien übersehen.

@spiegel.de berichtet über den Streit um das Lieferkettengesetz in der EU, bei dem die EVP eine mögliche Abstimmungsmehrheit mit den Rechtsaußen-Fraktionen nicht ausschließt. U.a. mit einer Einschätzung von mir zu den Gefahren einer fehlenden Einigung im Mitte-Lager. www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...

With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.

🚨New paper out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1080/1350... @manuelwagner.bsky.social & I re-conceptualize class representation to take into account social mobility between classes and variation in how individuals enter politics.

🚨 New article out! “Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social 👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000... We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany. Short summary thread below 👇

As a scholar I rarely offer electoral guidance. But today I do: DO NOT USE AI CHATBOTS AS YOUR VOTE ADVICE APPLICATION AHEAD OF (THE DUTCH) ELECTIONS Full of errors, bias and lack of transparency. @ernesto-deleon.com @favstats.eu @theoaraujo.bsky.social and🙋unpack why algosoc.org/results/1-in...

NEW - Policlim: A Dataset of Climate Change Discourse in the Political Manifestos of Forty-Five Countries from 1990 to 2022 - https://cup.org/43zzLHc - @marysanford.bsky.social, Silvia Pianta, @nicolasschmid.bsky.social & Giorgio Musto #OpenAccess

Very excited to spend four weeks as an academic visitor @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social, @ox.ac.uk, continuing research on political parties, voters, and elections. Drop me a message if you wanna meet for a coffee!

Very excited to spend four weeks as an academic visitor @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social, @ox.ac.uk, continuing research on political parties, voters, and elections. Drop me a message if you wanna meet for a coffee!

Awards, awards, awards! 🏆✨ At the 11th Annual @oegpw.bsky.social Conference, three members of the Department of Government @univie.ac.at were among the awardees: 🎓 Best PhD – @christinagahn.bsky.social 📘 Best MA – Benjamin Riesch 📗 Best BA – Luca Conte 👏 Huge congrats to all! 🎉 #PoliSky 🧪

New publication with @kgattermann.bsky.social : “Does media framing of election results affect whether voters perceive parties as election winners or losers?” @polstudies.bsky.social doi.org/10.1177/0032... A short 🧵:

Now out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. In our new article, @denis-cohen.bsky.social @thmskrr.bsky.social and I show that where local rent prices increase more, residents with lower incomes become more likely to support the radical right AfD. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...