Currently in FirstView: In “Explaining Differences in Voting Patterns across Voting Domains Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models,” Erin Lipman, Scott Moser, and Abel Rodriguez extend spatial voting models with a hierarchical Bayesian approach that estimates legislators’ ideal points.

Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring Media Criticism with ALC Word Embeddings,” @cbarrie.bsky.social, Neil Ketchley, @aasiegel.bsky.social, and Mossaab Bagdouri introduce a method for estimating media criticism using à la carte word embeddings which requires only minimal computational resources.

Currently in FirstView: In “An Expert-Sourced Measure of Judicial Ideology,” @kevinlcope.bsky.social develops a method for estimating the ideology of federal judges. He introduces the Jurist-Derived Judicial Ideology Score (JuDJIS) which is based on over 20,000 evaluations by a sample of jurists.

Currently in FirstView: “Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos.” @marvins.bsky.social and @fhopp.bsky.social examine 810 party manifestos in 4 languages to study how different instruments lead to different results for extracting moral foundations.

Currently in FirstView: In “Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision,” Jonathan Colner describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free software. This method is useful for poorly-formatted sources that require researchers to extract each item by hand.

Currently in FirstView: “Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict” by David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams, and Håvard Hegre. The authors discuss bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) as an alternative to models that lack uncertainty estimates.

Currently in FirstView: In “Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design,” @gustavodiaz.org and Erin Rossiter study how experimental design choices can increase precision when estimating treatment effects. Specifically, they examine block-randomized and pre-post designs.

Currently in FirstView: "Estimating the Local Average Treatment Effect Without the Exclusion Restriction." @zmarkovich.bsky.social introduces the Compliance Probability Weighting estimator, which enables inference about the LATE without relying on monotonicity or principal ignorability.

Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring the Quality of Answers in Political Q&As with Large Language Models,” @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social and Jacob Morrier develop an approach for measuring the quality of answers in Q&A sessions using data from the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons.

Currently in FirstView: In “What to Observe When Assuming Selection on Observables,” Kevin M. Quinn, Guoer Liu, Lee Epstein, and Andrew Martin clarify how most estimators justified by a selection-on-observables assumption are special cases of a general weighting estimator.

Currently in FirstView: In “Accessibility and Equity in the Research Process: Gender Bias in Elite Interview Recruitment,” Margaret A. T. Kenney and John Salchak study how researcher identity affects the research process. Specifically, they look at how this influences elite interview recruitment.

The latest issue of PA is out now. We have a great collection of papers by @yamilrvelez.bsky.social, @sysilviakim.bsky.social, @mattblackwell.bsky.social, @sophieehill.bsky.social, @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social, @kaipingchen.bsky.social, @samuelbaltz.bsky.social (1/2)

Currently in FirstView: “Generalizing Trimming Bounds for Endogeneously Missing Outcome Data Using Random Forests." @cdsamii.bsky.social, Ye Wang, @jlzhou.bsky.social‬ present a partial identification approach that avoids strong assumptions. This is illustrated using a simulation and replication.

Currently in FirstView: “Fixed Effects, Lagged Dependent Variables, and Bracketing: Cautionary Remarks” by Matei Demetrescu, Manuel Frondel, Lukas Tomberg, and Colin Vance investigates a bracketing property used to yield bounds on treatment effects from fixed effects and lagged DV models.

#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social - Generative AI and Topological Data Analysis of Longitudinal Panel Data - cup.org/460fgFn - Badredine Arfi #FirstView

Currently in FirstView: In “Attention and Political Choice: A Foundation for Eye Tracking in Political Science,” Libby Jenke and Nicolette Sullivan explain what eye tracking allows researchers to measure and how these measures are relevant to political science questions.

#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social - Decomposing Network Influence: Social Influence Regression - cup.org/3UKZjwv "provides a statistical mechanism for explaining actor influence based on observable traits" - Shahryar Minhas & Peter D. Hoff #FirstView

Currently in FirstView: “Mapping (A)Ideology: A Taxonomy of European Parties Using Generative LLMs as Zero-Shot Learners.” Riccardo Di Leo, @zengchen.bsky.social, @eliasdinas.bsky.social‬, and @redatamtam.bsky.social see if ML can obtain measures of party ideology that match the validity of experts.

Currently in FirstView: “Constructing Vec-tionaries to Extract Message Features from Texts: A Case Study of Moral Content.” @kaipingchen.bsky.social and and colleagues introduce “vec-tionaries” which are embedding-based tools for measuring latent features of messages.

Currently in FirstView: In “Seeing Like a District: Understanding What Close-Election Designs for Leader Characteristics Can and Cannot Tell Us,” Andrew Bertoli and Chad Hazlett examine the limitations of politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs.

We are pleased to announce the 2025 Editors’ Choice Award for the paper “How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies” by @apoorvalal.com‬, @maclockhart.bsky.social, @yiqingxu.bsky.social‬, and @garyzu.bsky.social.

The latest winning article of the @polanalysis.bsky.social Editors' choice has been announced, find out more - cup.org/4551W22 The articles represent papers that the Editors see as providing an especially significant contribution to political methodology.

#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social - Detecting Formatted Text: Data Collection Using Computer Vision - cup.org/3IMLbjB "This letter describes a workflow process for structured text extraction using free models and software" - Jonathan Colner #FirstView

#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social - Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict - cup.org/4mjbJHl - David Randahl, Jonathan P. Williams & Håvard Hegre #FirstView

Currently in FirstView: In “Priming Bias Versus Post-Treatment Bias in Experimental Designs,” @mattblackwell.bsky.social, Jacob Brown, @sophieehill.bsky.social, Kosuke Imai, and Teppei Yamamoto analyze the trade-off between post-treatment and priming biases in survey experiments.

Currently in FirstView: In “Addressing Measurement Errors in Ranking Questions for the Social Sciences,” Yuki Atsusaka and @sysilviakim.bsky.social examine the statistical consequences of measurement error and introduce a framework for improving ranking data analysis.

Currently in FirstView: In “The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Political Science,” @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social‬, and Hillel David Soifer discuss the MAUP and how the size of spatial units and the location of their borders affect empirical results.

NEW ISSUE from @polanalysis.bsky.social - Political Analysis - Volume 33 - Issue 3 - July 2025 - cup.org/4nduNIG All articles in this issue are #OpenAccess.

Currently in FirstView: In “Odd Profiles in Conjoint Experimental Designs: Effects on Survey-Taking Attention and Behavior,” Kirk Bansak and Libby Jenke consider how survey-takers respond to odd combinations of conjoint attributes.

#OpenAccess from @polanalysis.bsky.social - Fixed Effects, Lagged Dependent Variables, and Bracketing: Cautionary Remarks - cup.org/4dS2taa - Matei Demetrescu, Manuel Frondel, Lukas Tomberg & Colin Vance #FirstView

Currently in FirstView: In “Crowdsourced Adaptive Surveys,” @yamilrvelez.bsky.social introduces a methodology (CSAS) that converts open-ended text from participants into survey items and applies a multi-armed bandit algorithm to determine which questions should be prioritized in the survey.

Currently in FirstView: “Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging.” @glemens.bsky.social‬ and @ainagallego.bsky.social use a variety of LLMs to take in political texts and position political actors in policy and ideological space.

Currently in FirstView: “The Probability of Casting a Pivotal Vote in an Instant Runoff Voting Election.” @samuelbaltz.bsky.social derives all the ways that a single ballot can change the result of an instant runoff voting election, for any number of candidates and voters.

Currently in FirstView: “Categorizing Topics Versus Inferring Attitudes: A Theory and Method for Analyzing Open-ended Survey Responses.” @willrhobbs.bsky.social and @jongreen.bsky.social outline and validate a theory to separate noise from signal in open-ended responses.

Currently in FirstView: In “The Limits (and Strengths) of Single-Topic Experiments,” @scottclifford.bsky.social & @carlislerainey.bsky.social examine the generalizability of single-topic studies, focusing on how often confidence intervals capture treatment effects from a larger population of studies

Currently in FirstView: “Synthetically generated text for supervised text analysis.” @ahalterman.bsky.social proposes using LLMs to generate synthetic training data for training smaller, traditional supervised text models.

Currently in FirstView: “Measuring Distances in High Dimensional Spaces Why Average Group Vector Comparisons Exhibit Bias, And What to Do about it” by Breanna Green, @willrhobbs.bsky.social, Sofia Avila, Pedro Rodríguez, Arthur Spirling, and @bstewart.bsky.social

✨Sharing our new publication in @polanalysis.bsky.social @cambridgeup.bsky.social "Constructing Vec-tionaries to Extract Message Features from Texts: A Case Study of Moral Content" #OpenAccess www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Currently in FirstView: "When Can We Trust Regression Discontinuity Design Estimates from Close Elections? Evidence from Experimental Benchmarks" by Leandro De Magalhães, Dominik Hangartner, Salomo Hirvonen, @jmerilainen.bsky.social, Nelson Ruiz, and @jannetukiainen.bsky.social.

Currently in FirstView: “Decoupling Visualization and Testing when Presenting Confidence Intervals” by David Armstrong and @olsisblue.bsky.social. They develop a way to present estimates and confidence intervals to accurately visualize the underlying pairwise tests.

The spring issue of Political Analysis is out now and everything is open access! Check it out here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Currently in FirstView: “Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations” by @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, Paul Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. The authors propose the Signed Exponential Random Graph Model (SERGM).

Currently in FirstView: “MODGIRT: Multidimensional Dynamic Scaling of Aggregate Survey Data” by Elissa Berwick and @devincaughey.bsky.social. While traditional public opinion models are restricted to unidimensional latent traits, MODGIRT allows for a multidimensional structure of preferences.

How do you know when a mechanism is externally valid? In“ Sign-Congruence, External Validity, and Replication,” @tara-slough.bsky.social and @scottatyson.bsky.social develop a framework for accumulating evidence across multiple studies and develop theoretical foundations for replication.

🧵 Knowing which questions to ask is one of the most critical aspects of survey design, but we often rely on guesswork to devise questionnaires. What if we were to rely directly on participants?

Looking for non-English training data for your NLP or ML projects? Check out “Multilanguage Word Embeddings for Social Scientists: Estimation, Inference, and Validation Resources for 157 Languages” by Elisa Wirsching, @pedro-rodriguez.bsky.social, Arthur Spirling, and @bstewart.bsky.social.

Currently in FirstView: In “What Would You Say? Estimating Causal Effects of Social Context on Political Expression,” @small-schulz.bsky.social develops a method for estimating social influence over political expression. He uses an experiment to estimate respondents’ lexical ideology.

Online/open access in @polanalysis.bsky.social w/ @willrhobbs.bsky.social: a theory and method for inferring attitudes in open-ended survey responses www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Lots of articles are in FirstView! In “News Sharing on Social Media: Mapping the Ideology of News Media, Politicians, and the Mass Public” @gregoryeady.bsky.social, Richard Bonneau, @jatucker.bsky.social, and Jonathan Nagler introduce a method to unify ideology measurement across media platforms.

Ever wondered which regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimator to choose? 🤔 We tackled this question by using experimental benchmarks from lottery tie-breakers in local elections in Colombia and Finland. Here's what we found: 🧵