I hear they rely now on machine learning models on the text of letters to the North Pole to evaluate whether kids are naughty or nice. Calling it "Sentiment And Naughtiness Text Analysis" or SANTA for short

New publication alert! In this study, we evaluate lexicon-based models, supervised models, and LLMs for stance detection using two corpuses of social media data. Our findings demonstrate that: 1) LLMs can distinguish stance on a specific target even when multiple subjects are mentioned...1/2

Sociologists! Were any of you involved with the nomination/development of the CIP Code: 45.0102 Social Science, Research Methodology and Quantitative Methods? Would love to get in touch. The nomination apparently included supporting materials from @asanews.bsky.social nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cipcod...

New from me: In the New Republic @newrepublic.com, I wrote that we should refuse to choose between the easy way and the hard way to boost birth rates.

This new commentary over at the Council on Foreign Relations, based on work with my colleagues at RAND, highlights a few ways women in China have been impacted by the legacy of the One Child Policy and China's hukou (household registration) system. www.cfr.org/blog/gendere...

"Raccoons have adapted to living in urban areas to such an extent that they are now showing physical changes that resemble early signs of domestication...Their snouts have become shorter... smaller teeth, curlier tails, smaller brains and floppier ears." www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

One of the cool things in this report is an analysis of Chinese of public sentiment towards the 2- and 3-Child Policies. Changes in net sentiment align with two phases of pronatalist policy: introduction (people are optimistic) and implementation (people grow frustrated).

A thread of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that look like record covers... because that's EXACTLY what the world needs 1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...

This whole thread is a wild ride. Get a cup of coffee and enjoy!

New NIH guidance related to the shutdown. One of the changes is that "the percent of applications discussed in most meetings will be reduced to 30-35%, instead of the current ~50%."

The number of new international students in the U.S. has dropped by 17 percent. wapo.st/3M6uNvC

"Twenty years ago, the U.S. spent almost four times as much as China on research and development. But by 2023, China had almost closed the gap."

New research alert! In this report we evaluate the past decade of China's pronatalist policies, and how the U.S. can learn from their lack of impact. There are ways to help reduce unmet fertility intentions, rather than increase fertility intentions more broadly. 1/2 www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

It has been almost four months since I last posted my cat. Here she is inspecting a puzzle with 299 cat-shaped pieces, and one dog-shaped piece. Happy Friday!

Apparently Rubik's Cube has created a nightmare stress baby with the Perfection game by creating "Rubik's Pulse Cube" -- you have 60 seconds to solve the cube before all the color drains out and it turns blank on all sides. I'm sweating just thinking about it.

Here's a quick 11 min chat about low birth rates and population panic. I'll pile on with the note that the United States is one of only eight countries in the world to not offer a paid federal maternity leave (along with Suriname, Papua New Guinea, and five South Pacific island nations).

This graph never fails to be shocking: "The US has experienced the earliest and greatest slowdown in life expectancy improvements among higher-income countries, reported Eileen Crimmins. “We have horrible life expectancy—and it’s getting worse and worse”" www.prb.org/resources/se...

I was happy to brief (with Jennifer Bouey) the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission staff last week on our recent introductory report on China's demographics and national security (broadly defined). Hopefully just the first in a series. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

I’m dressing as the age period cohort problem for Halloween

"Dreams of teeth falling out occur across cultures...Research suggests that 40% of the adult population will have had one such dream over the course of their lives." I've had these kind of dreams forever, but now I also have them about my cat's teeth. www.theguardian.com/wellness/202...

You've probably heard that US fertility is "below replacement level." But what does that actually mean??? Demographers @lesja.bsky.social & others explain the link between birth rates & population growth in this new @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief. contemporaryfamilies.utah.edu/publications...

Updating my projections: The last woman married in the USA will take place on Valentine's day in 2045.

Gallup: in 2023 65% of Republicans said they drink alcohol – about the same as Democrats and independents. In 2025, that number has plunged a staggering 19 points to 46%. Democrats and independents also report drinking less, but each only by single digits. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

And now for something completely different.

As well as providing descriptive demographic trend data, the research team interviewed SMEs to identify & evaluate potential policy responses to mitigating impacts of the aging population: pro-natalist policies, immigration, the rural-urban divide, reliance on tech, and increasing retirement age.

Well, boo to this. Coffee can contribute to high cholesterol. “Unfiltered coffee, such as espresso, is high in diterpenes ... which interfere with proteins that transport LDL [bad] cholesterol out of the bloodstream.” Sorry if this is also news to you. health.yahoo.com/wellness/nut...

My new report acts as an intro to China's current demographic challenges (rapid population aging, low fertility) and their implications for China's national security (military, economy, innovation, population well-being, and the CCP's self-perpetuation). www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

JOB ALERT FOR #SOCIOLOGIST: Come work with me. We have FOUR Assistant Professor positions in the Sociology Department at the University of Calgary. careers.ucalgary.ca/jobs/1672106...

Writing an algorithm to identify cluster populations for desirability ratings. A k-pop demand hunter.

Fun new publication alert! Back in 2022 we fielded the same survey about political and policy attitudes to a national probability sample, and a sample of users on Twitter. The Twitter sample was younger and more liberal across a wide range of attitudes, compared to the probability sample. 1/3

@genebaxter.bsky.social @alliemackay.bsky.social Dawson's Creek chat: when I was writing my comprehensive exams at Duke, the cast was shooting these S5 promo pics right outside the sociology building. We grad students all flocked to the window despite the timed exam. Michelle had to stand on a box.

Relieved to report that a paper I submitted that has been under review for 18 months was just formally accepted. What's the longest review process at a single journal you've ever gone through?

It never occurred to me, but it did to County Auditor Vicky Dalton, that "...in a lot of states, anyone could get a copy of a marriage license. So how many Swifties will get a copy of the marriage certificate to hang on their walls?”

This is a wild ride of a read for all kinds of reasons. Researchers and people who read about research on the internet should all find some valuable stuff in here. The incidental note that THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF OBJECTS ON A TYPICAL FRIDGE IS 55 is just the icing on the cake for me.

Reading this KFF report, I'm struck by how it shows the effects of RAND's "Truth Decay" framework in action: Notably... -increase in the relative volume & influence of opinion & experience vs. fact -declining trust in formerly respected sources of factual info 1/

Went to download a paper from the Population Action International website, but apparently they got hacked and it advertises Russian online casinos now. oof.

The figure falls below the previous record low of 55% in 1958 in the nearly nine decades of such tracking by Gallup. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

The world’s population is expected to start shrinking this century. Political demographer Jennifer Sciubba says that’s no reason to panic.

If you know me, you know my complicated feelings about "like." As this article says: "The word gives you a minute to get your shit together mentally and also lets the other person know that you are getting your shit together." www.theguardian.com/books/2025/a...

Look, I hope I have some good personal news soon. For now all I have is robots.

From @theguardian.com : Robots perform in a band at the Robot Mall, said to be the world’s first humanoid intelligent robot store.

@uncpopcenter.bsky.social's Bob Hummer is giving the 18th NIH Matilda White Riley Distinguished Lecture on August 28th from 3-4pm ET. This honor recognizes Bob's contributions to population science & his stewardship of Add Health. Register for the webinar here: obssr.od.nih.gov/news-and-eve...

I saw Ozzy with Sabbath at the Hollywood Bowl in 2016. He shuffled onto the stage, but once the music started muscle memory kicked in and he sounded great. He would crouch down then leap up like a frog, all through the show. There were also black and purple balloons everywhere. RIP.

My latest @npr.org story: Postmaster General David Steiner eased the worries of some U.S. Postal Service union leaders for now by saying he doesn’t believe in privatizing USPS. President Trump has expressed support for such a move, which would likely hurt services in rural areas

In Seoul, single-person households are nearly 40% of all homes. A 2022 Seoul Institute survey found that 62% of single-person households report experiencing loneliness, while city estimates suggest 130,000 young people suffer from social isolation. www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

Well this is fun. Note that it's unclear if survey respondents had to have actually visited the country to provide an assessment. U.S. News designs its “Best Countries” ranking around 73 attributes grouped into 10 thematic subrankings. “Fun” was one attribute within its broader “Adventure” ranking.

@genebaxter.bsky.social Loved @alliemackay.bsky.social's Great News about loneliness on episode 682. One of my favorite career highlights was appearing on "Thanks For That Podcast, Bean" in 2017 to talk with you about all the ways loneliness can kill you. Now I study how it's linked to alcohol use.

RAND colleague Wendy Troxel suggests you'll get a better sleep if you don't let your pets sleep with you, but also has some sleep-improving recommendations for those of us who will ignore that first suggestion. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

Excessive drinking is a leading factor in preventable deaths among U.S. veterans and is associated with higher health care usage. This RAND Epstein Family Veterans Policy Research Institute paper offers recommendations for preventing and treating alcohol use disorder: www.rand.org/pubs/perspec...

@genebaxter.bsky.social @alliemackay.bsky.social I heard your panic about illegal baby names in @acotaac.bsky.social episode 678. Rest assured that there were 99 babies born named Queen in 2024, but it has been in decline since 2020 (when there were 265). Thanks, SSA! www.ssa.gov/oact/babynam...