In bookstores in the UK on May 21 Very much looking forward to this

Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️

Congratulations to our faculty member Andrew Bertoli, whose paper on analyzing the impact of events through surveys has just come out in @psrm.bsky.social! 🎉 🎉🎉 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

I'm hiring two three-year postdocs and an RA for my project on how police presence affects perceived safety. I'm looking for candidates who can contribute to the theoretical development and who have strong expertise in causal inference. Deadline: March 1. www.stillinger.aau.dk/videnskabeli...

Nice to see it all dressed up! Our paper on politicians' wages, corruption and criminal violence is out in the February issue of AEJ:Policy. Check it out at: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

For absolutely no reason, let me remind people of this banger of a paper by @caroartc.bsky.social doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

Can large language models stand in for human participants? Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research. One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want. THREAD 🧵

Why did antisemitism rise in Germany during the Covid pandemic? And why was this increase concentrated among political centrists, rather than on the fringes? doi.org/10.1017/S153... @kanol.bsky.social @wzb.bsky.social @uni-hamburg.de @politikuhh.bsky.social @socfub.bsky.social

Reminder that, as of the latest reports, Liam Ramos is still in prison in Texas - now for 5 days. His parents are legal asylum seekers with no criminal record.

I'm hiring two three-year postdocs and an RA for my project on how police presence affects perceived safety. I'm looking for candidates who can contribute to the theoretical development and who have strong expertise in causal inference. Deadline: March 1. www.stillinger.aau.dk/videnskabeli...

I love this project. It's very smart and has very important implications. Do make sure to read it if you haven't already:

📄 New WP version out: revised text, tightened argument, and new analysis. The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social) Grateful for the helpful comments and presentation opportunities. Further feedback welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...

If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this: America's problems are solved problems. Just not here. What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵

We just had a week that changed everything, including my view of impeachment. Before: Wait until 2027. Now: Embrace it in 2026 and hold hearing-like forums to spotlight the many articles of impeachment filed against Trump and his cabinet. My latest @thebulwark.com www.thebulwark.com/p/embracing-...

I think this is really bad. And wrong. The point is, more or less, that if Trump doesn't do exactly as Hitler (and for some reason not Mussolini, the "founder" of fascism) then he cannot be a fascist. The main points where Trump differs is 1) that he does not like war and prefer small operations.

No matter how you slice it, US police officers are safer on the job and paid waaaaay more than other countries' police despite doing a…less than stellar job The question isn't more police vs. less police. It's why are US police paid so much while doing such little and such poor police work?

A new PNAS paper finds that polarization increased immediately after the release of Lady Gaga’s “Just Dance” and the advent of the late-2000s electro-pop era, which both appeared around the same year, 2008.

Our new study provides rare causal evidence about NYC’s speed camera program. We find large reductions in collisions (30%) and injuries (16%) near intersections with cameras. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1... @astagoff.bsky.social ky.social @brendenbeck.bsky.social nbeck.bsky.social 🧪

New paper alert! "Public Speakers With Nonnative Accents Garner Less Engagement" -- now out in Psych Science! This is my first graduate student's first first-author paper (and it was her first-year project). Short THREAD on the results:

Political communication research overwhelmingly relies on text. But parliamentary speech is multimodal! In our new @psrm.bsky.social article, Mathias Rask and I show that legislators also signal partisan conflict nonverbally— through changes in vocal pitch during floor speeches. 🧵 1/11 #polisky

After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts www.nber.org/papers/w34524 via @florianederer.bsky.social

NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)

Really proud of our new article in @apsrjournal.bsky.social!! @nicoravanilla.bsky.social @matthewjnanes.bsky.social What does citizen contact do to police attitudes in conflict settings? For those interested in bureaucrats, embeddedness, conflict, mixed methods: doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Do architecture and urban planning affect political behavior? Happy to share a paper that @tesaliarizzo.bsky.social and I have coming out at the APSR which uses computer vision to investigate how the built environment shapes inequalities in civic participation in Mexico: osf.io/preprints/so.... 🧵1/5

📄 New WP version out - full overhaul! The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social ) Comments welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...

My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.

How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality? Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):

This seems important in a world where so many countries are turning against immigration: "A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the US since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5%."

Do high workloads force bureaucrats to discriminate? In a published paper at the @thejop.bsky.social, I challenge the dominant explanation of discrimination in public service delivery. Surprisingly, I find that bureaucrats are able to handle substantial workloads without discriminating.

Our article “Unsuccessful Candidates Are More Concerned About Electoral Fairness than Election Winners” is now online @thejop.bsky.social Using RDD and elite survey data from Denmark, we show that losing candidates express greater concern about electoral fairness. 🔗 doi.org/10.1086/734240

Economic crises tend to favour the right. Voters tend to assign greater importance to issues owned by the right. When center-right parties preside over a crisis, voters often drift further rightward to nationalist parties rather than defect to the left onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

A new @ajpseditor.bsky.social paper claims that building *any* public housing costs the largest incumbent party in 🇩🇪 municipalities around 0.5 % pts. I don't think this estimate is right. Alternative estimation strategies suggests effects that are between eight and forty times smaller (1/n)

BBC International Editor Jeremy Bowen has confirmed that the entire Al Jazeera team in Gaza City has been killed.

The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand: $678M raised through those spam tactics $282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies. $11M to actual campaigns (1.6%) The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.

🧵Introducing the Trump Action Tracker website! Today I’m launching www.trumpactiontracker.info - a live, searchable list of authoritarian‑style actions from Trump’s second term (over 740 actions so far). 1/14

Analyzing scientists' biographies during the baby boom, we find that mothers have a unique life cycle pattern of productivity. Children reduce the productivity of mothers but not fathers, with important implications for promotions and participation. buff.ly/39WbYRH

@robmickey.bsky.social & @dziblatt.bsky.social let me post the working paper Why doesn't police reform work? Because police depts can't credibly commit to their end of the bargain (doing more/better/riskier work in exchange for more $) www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/35o94...

Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The Democratic Tea Party is happening. But one key difference from the GOP Tea Party is the lack of a Fox News and big money to coordinate it. The Tea Party had a real grassroots element (sorry it's true), but coordination by media & Koch money was crucial web.stanford.edu/~gjmartin/pa...

I’m currently building a dataset on police forces around the globe. No other country has a force quite like ICE (w/ broad enforcement powers, tactical gear, immigration focus); the most apt comparisons are to secret police in authoritarian regimes rather than border/immigration forces elsewhere.

If the GOP reconciliation bill passes, ICE gets through FY2029: - $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion - $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million - $8 billion for hiring/retention - Billions more.

The Trump admin in a nutshell; in order to justify their own mistake, they’re going to release a violent felon with five deportations so he can testify against the guy with no criminal record they mistakenly deported. In other words, the story is always more important than the principle.

Did some quick math and i think this would represent one of the most dramatic and rapid expansions of prisons/policing/paramilitary forces in world history.

Can we say we are living in a police state now?

If you're still at #EPSA2025 today: Catch our Panel P13-S315: Politicians & Representation 🕐 13:10–14:50 📍 Room -1.A.05 Featuring: @jacklucas.bsky.social, @mathisbr.bsky.social, John Griffin, @mafaldapratas.bsky.social I’m presenting our study on evidence selection by politicians👇

Very excited to share a new preprint. @jesperasring.bsky.social and I study how politicians engage with evidence in the real world. Link: osf.io/8zv9s