In our new paper for @ejprjournal.bsky.social Tim Vlandas and I offer a mathematical statement and simulations to assess the extent of the 'atomistic' fallacy on #VotingBehaviour, and illustrate the problem empirically by focusing on the example of #FarRight voting- available below Open Access

🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

📣 New publication 📣 Delighted to see my article with the brilliant Teresa Bejan and James Tilley now out in the BJPolS We develop and test the concept of 'partisan intolerance' - and find high levels of intolerance in Britain, associated with affective polarisation 👇

New paper out in Nature Human Behaviour. "Government policy documents across 185 countries largely cite Global North sources" with @seramirezruiz.bsky.social DOI: doi.org/10.1038/s415... Ungated: rdcu.be/fh0Ss

📄 New paper with a fantastic MA student @jmschulte.bsky.social: When social democrats move right on migration, do voters actually follow? We study Olaf Scholz's radical shift on migration in Germany (October 2023).

🚨 New paper accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social: we were in the field while Brexit dominated British politics. Do MPs respond differently when constituents disagree with the party line? What we find surprised us: a null! url: osf.io/preprints/os...

Are we accurately interpreting election results? In our new paper, forthcoming in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, Tim Vlandas and I discuss the risks associated with drawing inferences about national level outcomes based on individual-level analyses- i.e. the 'atomistic fallacy'.

📢 New in IMR. We often ask whether #refugees “integrate.” But what happens when the host society becomes hostile? I develop the concept of social marginalization and show that refugees in more #violent German counties report stronger feelings of exclusion and discrimination. doi.org/10.1177/0197...

My first dissertation paper is out in Sexuality Research and Social Policy — open access! 🎉 It's about trans inclusion in sports and what fairness concerns actually do to public support. link.springer.com/article/10.1... Short thread below 👇

🚨 New WP w/ @leonardocarella.bsky.social on OSF doi.org/10.31235/osf... We usually think that social identities precede preferences We show the reverse is also true: people update their social identities to match their immigration preferences Focus: class identity in 🇬🇧 + Christian identity in 🇮🇹

New article and special issue! Just out in Comparative Political Studies: “Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies: Information, Legacies, Temporalities", the intro to a special issue on countering illiberalism in liberal democracies. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Thread 🧵1/7

Very glad that our first DEMNORM paper found such a great home at @thejop.bsky.social. If you’re interested in the role of social desirability in online surveys, check out the thread and paper below ⬇️

Great to see "The Way Back After Backsliding: Public Opinion and the Restoration of Democracy" with @robbwiller.bsky.social and @m-b-petersen.bsky.social out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

🚨Happy to finally see this out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social (with @leonardocarella.bsky.social) ⁉️ Does growing up when immigration is salient make people vote for parties they agree with on immigration *for the rest of their lives*? doi.org/10.1017/S147...

📄 New WP version out: revised text, tightened argument, and new analysis. The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social) Grateful for the helpful comments and presentation opportunities. Further feedback welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...

New paper in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Is descriptive representation good for substantive representation? Why do voters stay loyal to corrupt and poorly governing ethnic parties? I argue that we ought to focus less on patronage and more on dignity concerns. Defiant pride can come at a price. 1/🧵

Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD

How do contemporary challenges of backsliding and war interact? We show that interstate conflict boosts support for undemocratic candidates, especially among Republicans who *do not prefer democratic Rs over undemocratic Rs* during interstate conflict. Out in @bjpols.bsky.social with Lasse Laustsen

🚨 New article out! “Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social 👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000... We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany. Short summary thread below 👇

New paper out with @dasalgon.bsky.social: “Far-Right Agenda Setting: How the Far Right influences the Political Mainstream” doi.org/10.1017/S1475676525100066 #openaccess in @ejprjournal.bsky.social🧵

Glad to see this out at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! I show that the immigration-crime issue, when salient, can shift leftist cosmopolitans to the Right. This is due to leftist voters being more conservative on crime than leftist parties. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are? @simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions Thread 🧵1/10

NEW - How Mainstream Politicians Erode Norms - cup.org/4lfeHvD "we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians" - @valentimvicente.bsky.social, Elias Dinas & @dziblatt.bsky.social #OpenAccess

NEW - Media Platforming and the Normalisation of Extreme Right Views - cup.org/4mmVIAL "exposure to uncritical interviews increases agreement with extreme statements and perceptions of broader support in the population" - @dianebolet.bsky.social & @florianfoos.bsky.social #OpenAccess

🚨 working paper (w. @morganlcj.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social): Protesters are not judged equally - even if tactics of groups are similar. We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads. What we find is disturbing: osf.io/preprints/os...

🚨 My first publication, co-authored with Sylvia Kritzinger & Susanna Bastaroli, is out! In our chapter, we explore how Italians re-elaborate their country’s role in the WWII & the Holocaust. Available online & in print (EN): www.wallstein-verlag.de/978383535866... 🧵 Some key findings: 👇

🛎️New WP with @morganlcj.bsky.social @timallinger.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social Against the surge of conjoints and other hypothetical experiments in relation to democratic backsliding, we study the consequences of using hypotheticals versus real-world scenarios. osf.io/preprints/os...

I am very excited to share a new working paper coauthored with @amaliaab.bsky.social. Using a field experiment, we find that, in the real world, it is more costly to express far-right preferences than other political preferences. osf.io/preprints/os... 1/8

Does Mainstream Populism Work❓ I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗ Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️:

Now available Open Access: 📰 Does (immigration) framing influence public opinion? 🧵 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

You wonder how the CDU/CSU playing with the "Brandmauer" to AfD last week has influenced German voters? @mafaldapratas.bsky.social @jmfernandes86.bsky.social & I have you covered. We surveyed sample of 2,000 German voters. 🧵with first results 👇. Spoiler: It did not go down as well as CDU/CSU hoped.

🚨 Happy to see one of my PhD papers out at JEPOP 📚 I examine whether MPs' attention to local issues in parliamentary activities affects their re-election chances in party-centred contexts www.tandfonline.com/eprint/G2HVG... Ungated version here: eavigano.github.io/papers/jepop...

🚨 Out now in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social : "Citizens' Preferences for Multidimensional Representation". Jack Blumenau, Fabio Wolkenstein & I investigate citizens' preferences regarding 6 dimensions of representation using surveys conducted in 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇩🇪. Short 🧵(1/10) doi.org/10.1017/S15375

New working paper! How do protesters' demographics and policy preferences affect politicians' responsiveness to their demands? I find no effects of shared demographics btw. protesters and politicians, but asymmetric responsiveness to left-right policy preferences: gupea.ub.gu.se/handle/2077/...

🚨 New @apsrjournal.bsky.social Paper! 🚨 In “When Migrants Mobilize against Labor Exploitation: Evidence from the Italian Farmlands,” I study how empowering undocumented migrants can reduce labor exploitation and even weaken organized crime. Thread : 🧵

The super election year is ending, with many winners and losers. Our new @thejop.bsky.social paper, (@henrikseeberg.bsky.social, @martinbaekgaard.bsky.social ) asks: How do winning and losing candidates see elections? Spoiler: Losers are more concerned about fairness. Link: doi.org/10.1086/734240

Thrilled that my article has just been published at @apsrjournal.bsky.social! 🎉 The article argues that low statistical power is a major impediment to acquiring cumulative knowledge on questions concerning cross-national differences: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

🚨 PUBLICATION ALERT 🚨 Excited to share that my article has just been published at @apsrjournal.bsky.social! It examines voter responses to mainstream party legitimization of (former) pariah parties. A thread 👇1/n... doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Join our team! 🚨 We are hiring 2 postdocs for the new Advertising Democracy project at Aarhus University. We are looking for researchers who are passionate about advertisements & citizens’ democratic values in Western democracies. Feel free to share!👇🏾 bss.au.dk/en/about-aar...

We now have a preprint!🥳 If you’re interested in understanding why radical voters’ satisfaction with democracy decreases even when they make an electoral breakthrough, we have a mixed-method paper for you with @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social Here is our draft: osf.io/7bfka 👀

It is super tough to cut down about 40% of 482 submissions for the EPSA behavior section. But I've finished the first evaluations. Some thoughts, if you are interested:

To all polisky and migcitsky peeps working on migration and/or ethnicity in one form or another, and who are located in or passing through Aarhus this coming spring (Feb-June): Let me know if you'd like to present or participate in the Migration & Ethnicity Workshop at Aarhus University 1/2

Is it possible to phase out coal and still win an election? Yes! Excited that my paper w @fergusgreen.bsky.social & Mikel González-Eguino on the electoral success of JustTransition policies in coalmining communities is now available OpenAccess at the APSR doi.org/10.1017/S000... Polisky

Very happy to share that “The Enforcement of Political Norms” (w/ the great @amaliaab.bsky.social) has been accepted for publication at the BJPolS @bjpols.bsky.social. The accepted version can be found at papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... polisky behaviorsky

"Does Right-Wing Violence Affect Public Support for Radical Right Parties? Evidence from Germany" Now out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social with page numbers! Blog Post: theloop.ecpr.eu/right-wing-v... Full Article (Open Access): journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11

Happy to share that our paper on why peripheral regions vote for the radical right is now out with the APSR: tinyurl.com/4zvv67d4 A quick thread on how this idea came along and developed within the last 5 years:

Delighted that my paper Young People Punish Undemocratic Behavior Less Than Older People is now conditionally accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social. I show what the title suggests using a large amount of survey experimental evidence. Thread below.

The Polish elections coming up this Sunday are the most important in Europe this year - perhaps even in a decade - for anyone interested in democratic stability. This thread is about the elections and the results of a survey of N5,500 Poles fielded this week up until now.

Accepted now at AJPS "Voted In, Standing Out: Public Response to Immigrants' Political Accession" with the incredible Stephanie Zonszein. Ungated draft at osf.io/xd4wk/ Polisky