Now that the Sept and Oct data are (belatedly) in, it looks like 2025 will be the second warmest year in the record (~80% probability). The last three years are in a class of their own.

I agree. It’s still rare, but it happens. See also point 4 in this article: www.politico.eu/article/epp-...

Yesterday will mark a major turning point – the collapse of the European Parliament's decades-old centrist governing majority. It's the end of an era, and the beginning of another.

The fact that this, and every other Trump pardonee who has subsequently broken the law, has not ended Trump's political career, that it barely even registers on the national discourse, underlines just how far we are from a functioning democracy that values accountability.

The best time to slow down with publishing was yesterday. Unfortunately, publishing is likely to get accelerated by LLMs.

Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD

🚨 Job Alert! Postdoc in POLITICAL TEXT ANALYSIS in the MULTIREP project You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna! ⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025 wratil.eu/files/MULTIR... 1/4 🧵

Time to reshare this piece on the pitfalls of following the road Denmark has taken on immigration: ukandeu.ac.uk/denmarks-mig...

The book is real! To celebrate, I will give out five copies to interested early career folks. DM if you’d like one.

Lat chance to get in your papers on European and EU Politics for next year‘s inaugural @epssnet.bsky.social conference in Belfast! Excited to read your abstracts 😃

Dems wins are not only important for the political offices gained, the control denied to Republicans. But they are perhaps even more important for the bandwagon effect and consensus heuristic that will convince parts of the public susceptive to mass signals that Dems are the „right“ choice.

🚨 Last chance for students in Vienna to apply for this 👇 great research assistant position to work with the MULTIREP team & the fantastic @bencehamrak.bsky.social. If you are interested in developing & running surveys on political attitudes, don’t miss out on applying by 10 November!

Better get your paper submissions in for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference in June 2026, as the deadline is 7 November, and we have no intention of extended that (given the submission numbers)! epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨 Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

Heute heißt es immer wieder, man habe das Volk beim EU-Beitritt 1994/95 in Sachen Neutralität "belogen" oder das Thema zumindest kleingeredet. Aber stimmt das? Ein Thread mit Zitaten aus dem Kurier rund um den EU-Beitritt. Spoiler: Die Debatte hat sich seitdem nur wenig verändert.

I have just written a Substack piece with some scenarios of what would have happened in the recent Dutch election if there had been 4% electoral threshold (with apologies to my Dutch friends for banging on about this!) substack.com/home/post/p-...

New from @erc.europa.eu project #MINORITYRULE with @sopro.bsky.social: We study voters’ knowledge about and perceptions of minority governments in 🇩🇰, 🇩🇪 and 🇸🇪. Link: doi.org/10.1017/S147... When survey researchers or politicians talk about minority governments, what do voters understand? ⬇️

Netherlands, 9:00 PM Ipsos-I&O exit poll: Seat projection national parliament D66-RE: 27 (+18) PVV-PfE: 25 (-12) VVD-RE: 23 (-1) GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5) CDA-EPP: 19 (+14) JA21~ECR: 9 (+8) FvD-ESN: 6 (+3) BBB-EPP: 4 (-3) ... +/- vs. Last election result ➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands

🚨New paper out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1080/1350... @manuelwagner.bsky.social & I re-conceptualize class representation to take into account social mobility between classes and variation in how individuals enter politics.

Wenn sich das ZDF über nächsten Boulevard-Titel beschwert „63% finden ÖRR ist Lügenpresse“ mit der Frage „Manchmal machen öffentlich-rechtliche Medien Fehler wie zuletzt zu X. Mr Y hat in diesem Zusammenhang von Lügenpresse gesprochen. Liegt er in diesem Fall richtig?“ Don’t ask me to rescue you!

Wirklich unverantwortlich

Dies ist keine Frage zum „Stadtbild“-Zitat von Merz, es ist de facto eine Frage zu Einstellungen zu potenziell kriminellen Migrant*innen ohne Aufenthaltsstatus. So wird das verstanden. Es anders darzustellen, ist nur eines: Meinungsmache, weil Umfrageergebnisse Einfluss auf Einstellungen haben.

Is it? Sounds like normal politics to me and that's good. Perhaps the socialists should call a confidence vote. They need to parliamentarize the Union.

I predict the chances for an op-ed that goes "We've been lawlessly killing people for decades, and nobody cared. Why should that now be a problem? Also, lol @ you shitlibs getting shit in your shitty faces haha" at 99.9%, given how (a)nihilism is the new conservatism.

@ckreudersonnen.bsky.social and I are happy to announce two open research positions in our joint DFG-funded project VARICRIS (👉 bit.ly/varicris). We are recruiting a #PostDoc and a #PhD candidate 🧵: #PoliSky #PoliSkyJobs #polsci 🌐

@chriswratil.bsky.social & @bjornhoyland.bsky.social are leading the "European and EU Politics" section @epssnet.bsky.social conf. Proposals on European/EU politics & integration are due 7 Nov 2025. Papers: app.oxfordabstracts.com/auth?redirec.... Panels: app.oxfordabstracts.com/auth?redirec....

To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?

Breaking EU rule of law protection news Late on Thursday, the NL Parliament, by majority, instructed the NL government to initiate *Article 259 TFEU State-to-State infringement proceedings against Slovakia* over its recent constitutional change to limit LGBTIQ-rights & to deny supremacy of EU law

A grim Monday in Europe: The leader of the Western world posts an AI video dumping poo on protestors, abandons 🇺🇦 yet again & funnels 💰 bn in 🗳️ support to ideological friends abroad. What is meant to breed apathy should spark resolve: We 🇪🇺 must finally act for ourselves — at a scale never seen.

European leaders must be convinced that what Zelensky experiences with Trump, they won’t, once their NATO guarantees will be at stake. Otherwise, their strategy of sucking up to Trump makes no sense, bc it withdraws public focus & momentum from the mammoth task of building European sovereignty.

If this was „brown liquid“, then the pilot was probably just „someone dressed as a king who looks similar to Trump“. Next level?

The only answer can and must be to have 2 millions more on American streets — each and every week from now on, not only every few months.

@NYT it's MILLIONS, not thousands. Stop marginalizing the resistence!

Striking that the figure below has provoked much less response than @simonhix.bsky.social's preceding call for an electoral threshold in NL It raises the genuine question how much fragmentation a party system can afford The response can't just be: this is how we do things in NL a few more thoughts:

NL needs an electoral threshold, eg. 4% (as in Sweden). It would encourage smaller parties to merge, voters to coordinate around medium and larger parties, and make coalition formation easier, governments more stable, and improve governability overall. Come on guys, Europe needs you to do this!

Job Alert! We are hiring two post-docs (full time, 4+ years) in our project SCEPTIC - Social, Computational and Ethical Premises of Trust and Informational Cohesion with @annanosthoff.bsky.social @guzoch.bsky.social and Prof. Andreas Peters (uol.de/informatik/s...)

At least this one concern of reviewer 2 that the "populist rhetoric treatment seems a bit strong and lacks mundane realism" is solved now. 🙏

"Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz sieht das vorläufige Ende der regelbasierten Ordnung. Er spricht von Grenzen der Integration in Europa und setzt auf die Nationalstaaten." Na, dann viel Spaß beim Bezahlen 💵 der 🇩🇪 Autonomie! Leider war abzusehen, dass Merz mit der EU nicht viel anfangen kann.

Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12

This 👇 administration was still running on 39% approval ratings when I last checked. Future generations will struggle to comprehend.

Holy wow, +3.5 ppm CO₂ last year, up from +2.4 ppm average the past decade, and +0.6 ppm in the 1960s. It gets scarier the closer you look at it. All this is a stress test for the planet, and it's buckling. Two big reasons for the massive increase: wildfires, and the ocean sinks are shutting down.

Just brace for what we will see in terms of US interference in European electoral politics soon

Selbstselektion & Mehrfachteilnahme unterminieren Grundlagen seriöser Stichprobenlogik. Eine nachträgliche Gewichtung kann diese systematischen Verzerrungen nicht kompensieren. Dass der ORF eine solche Umfrage als inhaltl. Aufhänger nutzt, ist methodisch & journalistisch fragwürdig & enttäuschend.

Once again, I ask - without trying to being overly alarmist - what anyone has seen since January to make them believe the 2026/28 elections will be free, fair, & democratic by any meaningful definitions of the words. bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Migrant Electoral Rights Dataset (1960-2020) 📊 Link to dataset: hdl.handle.net/1814/93661 📕 Link to codebook: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c... 💼 Link to 400 page documentation: cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/c...

🚨 out at @apsrjournal.bsky.social 🚨 ➡️ We ran a large media literacy experiment to fight misinformation ➡️ 13,500 students, 583 villages in Bihar, India ➡️Created custom misinfo curriculum of 4 months ➡️Partnered w the government to roll it out as an official course in classrooms hopeful findings👇🏽

Military aid to Ukraine has fallen substantially, even as Russia’s aggression has not. That hard fact, not any “change of tone” or “expression of frustration” or “consideration of sending more advanced equipment” is what matters most on the ground. Moscow surely knows that, and sees encouragement.

NEW! The public opinion effects of antisemitic elite cues: a survey experiment on the Hungarian Soros campaign in @eepolitics.bsky.social w/ @bencehamrak.bsky.social @erinjenne.bsky.social G.Simonovits. Soros cues worked through partisan motivated reasoning & not antisemitism doi.org/10.1080/2159...

What I find really worrying about the Trump, Obama, Biden approval rating comparison: Trump‘s downward slope is not even steeper than that of the two Dems. He just started lower & now is on a similar trajectory, despite all he has done. Are people reacting — or is this just business as usual?