I keep telling people around me that it is not going to be a permanent street party. But so far, it sort of is… If you still hear me saying this six months from now, I should probably stop.

By way of illustration, fascinating report from a village of 220 (mostly Roma) inhabitants in Northeast Hungary where Fidesz went from 82% in '22 to 24% in '26. A gift link, but you should support independent HU media, they are doing great work! 444.hu/2026/05/01/8...

With the full results finally in hand, we can draw a fuller picture of the scale of Orbán's devastating defeat. First, a seemingly technical detail: in most media accounts, you will see the final tally to be 53.2 (Tisza) vs 38.6 (Fidesz). But that is misleading! That count includes mail ballots ...

Same

The coolest city in the world in its moment of pure joy. As one reporter wrote, the most telling thing about the crowd was that most people barely bothered to even mention Fidesz. Emotionally, it is as if they have already moved on. Ofc, that won't be so easy, but it was nice to see.

Lots of really great things to think about in this thread...

The incoming health minister of the future Magyar government, upon learning of the election results last night (From Instagram)

I hope Georgia's and Serbia's demoralized, disorganized opposition parties take some lessons from this. Find a leader, get out of the capitals, talk to rural voters, build an organization, keep the infighting to the group chats.

FIFA

An explainer on how this happened from the mobilization side. : bsky.app/profile/zmik...

How to beat an autocrat:

Very good account of what's just happened

For years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread...

What a night

That would be Peter Molnar

It's weird that all these accounts I follow for other reasons (US politics, international politics, UK, etc.) are posting about Hungary. You gotta give it to Orban, he made HU "interesting" -- in a bad way. I am looking forward to HU going back being an obscure, boring, normal country.

And the unexpected: Orban calls Magyar, concedes. Wow.

Now we know

At 18:30, turnout is at 77.8%, a stunning record. There will be no update for a while, but the final number will be just short of 80% or just over. As @palmapolyak.bsky.social wrote, what we saw is either a brutally effective autocratic mobilization or an uprising against autocracy. We find out soon

Important to keep in mind: no votes have been counted yet.

And at 17h with turnout at 74%, the record is broken with two hours to go until polls close. The dynamics has slowed, though. Final turnout more likely to be around 80% than 82-83%.

At 15h, turnout is at 66%. At this pace, the record will be broken by 17h, the next update. 82-83% final turnout is not unthinkable now. Note, however, that not a single vote has been counted yet, and those who know better than me worn against making inferences from turnout data.

Truly insane turnout. Something unimaginable has to happen in the afternoon for overall turnout not to break the record. 80% is now imaginable. Perhaps people were not lying when 80+% told pollsters they are certain to vote, yet we dismissed those numbers as unrealistic.

I don’t know what will happen tomorrow. But it feels like the streets of Budapest are ready for change. I just wish we didn’t have to fight for it again every few decades. 🇭🇺❤️

Still record level. At this rate, 75% final turnout would not be surprising.

Insane early turnout. But it is very early.

I could not resist to write a thread on the HU elections this Sunday. All the non-Orbán-aligned polls show a sizable lead for the main opposition, Tisza, ranging from the very high single digits to over 20%. What's more, by most account, the lead has been increasing in the last three weeks.

If you have Hungarian friends, please check in on them. Netflix has nothing on this election campaign: a twisting spy scandal, Russian meddling, Orbán off the rails. And we still have four days left. I wrote a (still slightly incredulous) rundown 👇 brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/inside-hun...

If you read only one piece about the HU elections on April 12, it should be this one by @palmapolyak.bsky.social. Each of her points on caution are well-taken, and yet I am a bit more hopeful. Why? Because many of the regime advantages are already baked in the polls, and yet they show Magyar ahead.

Good thread on the upcoming HU elections. I agree with most of the points made. Gerrymander/malapportoinment is the biggest factor. It is estimated to give Orbán a 3-4% edge, meaning he can win a majority of seats even if he loses the popular vote by that margin. If he is down by 7-8%, he is toast.

Budapest—the prettiest of all capitals on any day—looks even more gorgeous tonight. Massive crowds at Péter Magyar’s opposition rally, 28 days before election day. Whether it’s possible to defeat Orbán’s autocratic regime at the ballot box remains doubtful. But hope is stubborn.

I stood about 500 meters from the square on Andrássy and it was so packed there it was hardly possible to move.

I am very happy (and perhaps unduly proud) that this is out. There are too many people to thank for thoughtful comments, some of them are in the acknowledgements. Also, just in time for the Hungarian elections coming on April 12... onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

If the EU is serious about defending Greenland, it must raise the cost to the US of getting it. EU MPs, government officials should stage nonviolent resistance at the ports and other strategic points and dare US troops to shoot at them. Seriously. I know it's cold, but the job comes with sacrifices.

Come and study at CEU. You can specialize in political theory, comparative politics, political economy or research methods.

Even if justice requires the abolition of inheritance, procreative liability and parental love generate duties that justify some bequests, limited in size and form. Or so I argue in this paper, now forthcoming in Ethics: philpapers.org/rec/GHEPPI

I was there. It was simply staggering. I can't remember feeling this moved by a political event, I am still under its spell. What's on the picture is maybe one third of the total crowd. Some people estimate that this may have been the biggest oppo (i.e., not state-orchestrated) event since 1956.

I am happy to share this new paper, which is out today. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Come and study political theory, comparative politics or political economy in a very special, international environment!

We are hiring TWO political theorists as well as a PPE position which is open to theorists (focus on history of economic thought) - please apply and circulate! www.kcl.ac.uk/jobs/108445-...

Come to Vienna in May, for the 6th yearly POLEMO symposium in political philosophy! Applications now open (for graduate students and early career people). Keynotes from Serena Olsaretti and Andrew Mason - not bad, huh? sites.google.com/view/polemos... And please spread the word.