Interesting paper, especially interesting it's coming from researchers at Anthropic arxiv.org/pdf/2601.20245

Today in @theguardian.com, I argue that Donald Trump’s foreign-policy playbook is increasingly about attention capture, or what I call geopolitical clickbait. Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it. 🧵 www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Fantastic second issue of DeCode magazine on the Black Sea www.flipsnack.com/A6E67D99E8C/...

Big Bad Wolf attacking Finland from the east. "They suspect that Russian wolf numbers have exploded after hunters were sent to the frontline in Ukraine, driving the predators to search for new territory in Finland". www.theguardian.com/environment/...

OPEN ACCESS -The visual conquering of the Portuguese sea, by Pedro Figueiredo Neto www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

NEW | Wind and solar overtake fossil fuels in the EU power sector 🇪🇺⚡️ Our @ember-energy.org European Electricity Review is out today, showing wind and solar reaching 30% of EU power, compared to 29% for fossil fuels. Here's what happened in EU electricity generation in 2025 🧵

"people are so conditioned by the now dominant projection that the idea that maps can use a projection other than a Mercator has been lost on the public at large" www.ft.com/content/ab27...

21.01.2026: LNG tanker Vladimir Rusanov is currently delivering 172,000 m³ of LNG from Sabetta (Yamal LNG), shitnya, to Zeebrugge, Belgium 🇧🇪. The cargo's value is approximately €35 million. #BloodGas #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦

Beyond lies, fantasies and insults that make up 95% of every Trump speech, what stood out for me in today's speech, on Greenland, was Trump's repetitive description of the territory as ice ('a very big piece of ice') and emphasis on its location in the Western hemisphere (he did so at least twice).

"if the EU sidesteps the ACI, Trump will be even more disrespectful toward Europe than he already is; the EU will lose all credibility; and European citizens will be even more disillusioned with European institutions unwilling to protect them and their dignity." www.politico.eu/article/this...

"Power that rests on the performed compliance of others is more fragile than it looks. The strong do what they can, until the moment they discover that “what they can” was always bounded by what others were willing to tolerate. Athens found out in Sicily; the question is where America finds out."

"Some are aghast that the United States is seemingly contemplating military action against its allies. But Donald Trump does not believe in allies. For Trump, there are no allies, only enemies and marks—and of those, only enemies can deserve respect." musgrave.substack.com/p/the-old-wo...

This was a very informative interview on EU, China, trade and competitiveness with @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social youtu.be/75leMrth9Ns?...

"If Ukraine’s military might were to be included, when added to that of France, Germany, Poland and the U.K., among others, the potential armed power of the coalition of the willing would be vast, and would include both nuclear and non-nuclear states."

"Countering this trend demands interventions and the creation of alternatives. These include a reassessment of evaluation metrics, a reduced reliance on commercial publishers, and greater global equity in research." theconversation.com/the-5-stages...

Writing is thinking Outsourcing the entire task of writing to LLMs will deprive us of the essential creative task of interpreting our findings and generating a deeper theoretical understanding of the world.

Just the White House referencing “which way, western man” by William gayley Simpson (published by the National Alliance, the Neo Nazi group led by white nationalist William Luther Pierce of Turner Diaries fame) AND threatening Greenland in the same tweet.

Quite literally, the Night of Broken Glass

"putting fun first." The author makes a great point. Madrid is always seen as a vibes team with no tactics, Barca - opposite. But now vibes play a huge role in Barca's success. www.nytimes.com/athletic/696...

New publication alert! 🧵 My colleague Jozef Zagrapan and I just had a new article published in East European Politics. The paper is titled 'To help or not to help? Analysing Individual Support for Ukrainian Refugees in Slovakia'. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

#Cfp After a very succesful 1st edition, we are organizing a new GPREFCZSK Workshop on individual geopolitical preferences. If you are researching how individuals choose between geopolitical blocs, apply to join us in Bratislava. Deadline 12/01. More info: sociologia.sav.sk/podujatia.ph...

I don't know enough to speak about Venezuela, but this piece I wrote last year might be useful on the territorial aspects, along with the references and suggestions for further reading: "100 years since the Locarno Treaties and territorial integrity today" progressivegeographies.com/2025/11/30/1...

Nuuk suddenly becomes Denmark's Narva

რაღაცა იქნება

Forget Huntington's map that everyone is bringing up this morning. It's Haushofer's map that we need to look at.

2/ To put these interactions into a broader context check out this piece w/ @segoddard.bsky.social where we lay out the core features of a neo-royalist order. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

"Paradoxically, sustaining Europe’s social model will require greater investment in defence." www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Wave in Backlight — Peter Witt oil on canvas 80 x 80 cm

A few political messages found in Venice last week

I'm happy to report that my article "Rethinking Survival in IR: Ontological Security and Narrated Statehood" has been published online open access in the European Journal of International Security.

In February 2024, a British flagged cargo ship was hit by two Houthi missiles & severed fiber optic cables that cut 25% of the internet traffic between Europe and Asia. Ned Leadbeater explains how the geography of normalization has impacted how the world connects itself. buff.ly/1ySlEi6

I liked the article; it argues its main point well (that RU is primarily interested in controlling UA; NATO viewed as an obstacle to this). Yet, it is less convincing when explaining the timing of the invasion with the arguments about Medvedchuk's house arrest and Putin's covid-period isolation.

Sunny day in winter

A new journalistic investigation by iFact suggests Russian oil products may be reaching Netherlands, Switzerland, and Greece through Georgia, with the trade handled by companies with ties to ruling Georgian Dream party and Russian business circles.

"a lethal boundary" "The Israeli army has built new concrete outposts along the “yellow line” to fortify its positions and declared it a lethal boundary. Soldiers have repeatedly killed Palestinians they accuse of crossing it, including young children." www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...

Finally, not surprising to see the AfD amongst the most pro-Russia groups, much more so than the Rassemblement National. What surprised me was that Fidesz, despite Orbáns outspoken role, was more cautious to vote pro-Russia (at least until 2025):

Fascist International

🚨Jobs!🚨 3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you! Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

and it comes with a companion newsletter on the Political Geography of New York City www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-politi...

The headline, the main takeaway from a European viewpoint is this: The transatlantic relationship as we know it is over. Yes, we kinda knew this. But this is now official US White House policy. Not a sppech, not a statement. The West as it used to be no longer exists.

Trump national security strategy: Make Europe White Again. "Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades ...certain NATO members will become majority non-European" "the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure" www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

The best soccer newsletter around.

"But this is only possible if Europe invests in its ability to take major decisions together through joint political authority and financial resources. ...building a stronger EU also means having to give somethings up. But in return we will gain something essential." www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Didn’t expect me to say this, huh? But yes, when we talk about the “drone wall” we can’t make the mistake to only talk about drones and not put in defences against other threats as well. My comments in a recent DGAP webinar.

Our latest forum is now online. @leaypi.bsky.social opens with a critique of our broken politics of immigration, with responses from @pochoaespejo.bsky.social, @daralind.bsky.social , @danieldenvir.bsky.social, Alex Aleinikoff, Chandran Kukathas, and Ayelet Shachar: