A war that’s going badly, a US president who can’t deliver the promised goods, public discontent over internet cuts and the economy and internal dissent: things aren’t going well for Putin www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

Russia's war is a mass participation war. It has been from the start. The regime has given people the option of *pretending* the war doesn't affect them, but it's been very clear simultaneously that everybody is contributing morally, spiritually, and militarily.

Context being that the opposition CHP has changed its leadership in the last several years to move away from an old guard that had failed to consistently and resist Erdoğan's centralization of power--so now the state is refusing to recognize the change of leaders & trying to reinstall the old guard.

The cafe in Lukianivka area: "Friends, 6 times we resumed work after russian strikes. But this time, we won't be able to open our doors again. What matters most is that our team is safe. We loved working for you all these years. Take care & support Armed Forces. See you at our other locations."

Shaddow ruler Ivanishvili cannot allow that. The US sanctioned him in Dec 2024 for "undermining the democratic and Euro-Atlantic future of Georgia for the benefit of the Russian Federation." His, and Putins, political project requires the EU path to fail. 3/13

Estonia's spy chief tells CNN that within four to five months Putin may no longer be able to negotiate from a position of strength. "Time is not in Russia's favor," Rosin said, noting the Kremlin has quietly dropped all talk of total victory. edition.cnn.com/2026/05/23/e...

In 2018, after the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki, I learned Russia wanted to interrogate me (and others) in exchange for US investigators questioning 12 Russian intelligence officers over electoral interference in 2016. The White House took nearly a day to reject the proposal.

“Don’t encourage him, Sylvia.”

Ousting the main opposition party's leadership is obviously a huge escalation. I am not sure though whether this constitutes THE turning point for autocratization in Turkey. IMO, this move was possible because democratic institutions and rule of law are already dismantled.

“What happens in countries whose democratic development for decades has been overtly or subtly undermined when Russia’s ability to influence domestic politics changes?” I’ve been thinking a lot about this and here are some more thoughts. open.substack.com/pub/quirkglo...

My impression is that precisely those who look down on Eastern Europe the most, saying things like "they'll never fix their corruption, it's deeply ingrained" usually want a quick reset with russia and will accuse you of essentialism if you tell them russia needs to reform dramatically first.

“What happens in countries whose democratic development for decades has been overtly or subtly undermined when Russia’s ability to influence domestic politics changes?” I’ve been thinking a lot about this and here are some more thoughts. open.substack.com/pub/quirkglo...

Bilgi University, one of Turkey's first private universities, which opened in the late 1990s, was shut down today by a presidential decree with no explanation. It was always a pleasure to visit there, fantastic students and faculty. This really hits hard for many.

Say goodbye to the 'competitive' in Turkish competitive authoritarianism.

Happy birthday to me and Prince

Either Bluesky has the juice or Russia is out of ideas. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/b...

I genuinely wish all the good bluesky folk wishing for a second reconstruction the best of luck but from a European perspective this is where we are at.

In China, Putin’s dinner with Xi Jinping featured a fragment from Swan Lake. For context in the USSR, during times of national crisis, state TV would broadcast a continuous loop of the ballet

This is the thing about people saying, well USAID needed reform. The idea that somehow we’re going to get better development practice out of this is delusional.

The passing of Jack Davis marks an end to the 1990s in SF politics. I was working on a campaign against Davis in 1997 when he threw The Party in Question. We still lost. I wish one of my parties would land in my obituary. missionlocal.org/2026/05/jack...

Grabbing him by the “Beard”: The Insider identifies the FSB, GRU, and SVR agents Russia sent to Armenia to take on PM Nikol Pashinyan After failing to influence elections in Moldova and Hungary, the Kremlin is now focused on Armenia and its June 7 vote.

Exactly. And she did nothing to stop Nord Stream. She may not be quite as compromised as Schröder, but her willingness to accommodate Russia makes her quite unsuitable to speak for the EU in current circumstances.

This administration is filled with the most repellent men I have ever seen. By which I mean: their politics are repellent, but also, if you found yourself on a date with them, you’d immediately text a friend your whereabouts, then fake an emergency and abscond.

Hey, so yeah, good morning. Take some minutes to read this then get back in bed. open.substack.com/pub/alaincas...

It's getting really hard to design poll questionnaires that don't prime people against Trump, just because of how crazy all this is. You cannot ask a "neutral" question about the president of the United States directing the Department of Justice to settle his case against the IRS. This is just crazy

Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau personally intervened to obtain a US visa for former Polish justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who fled criminal charges in Poland, according to Reuters' sources. He argued Ziobro is being "unjustly prosecuted" and the matter is one of "national security"

Yekaterinburg city workers painted over a "Game over" graffiti poster that appeared near a building struck by a Ukrainian drone last month. The image — a girl in VR goggles holding a controller — went up May 16 and was erased two days later. meduza.io/en/news/2026...

the president is raiding the treasury to put your tax dollars into this mans personal checking account as a reward for what hes doing in this picture

This is what will drive me off substance more than anything

The Journal of Democracy has been spun off from the National Endowment for Democracy to become an independent nonprofit now housed at Stanford www.journalofdemocracy.org/about/

The underlying story is that Trump doesn’t care about popularity because he is confident that he can manipulate the election.

OTD in 1944 Soviet deportation of Crimean Tatars began. On Stalin's orders, over 191,000 were forcibly sent to Uzbek SSR. 8000 died en route & 88,000 died with 3 years. Imagine mass deportations happening in 21st century...

Sitting in a laundromat chatting with a couple of smart young Lebanese guys on holiday from their tech jobs in Europe. “Oh! USAID did so much for Lebanon! Scholarships to AUB were for the best students. There were always projects in our villages.” 😡😡😡 Such a self own I can’t get over it.

Russia is starting to lose ground in Ukraine. The Economist's tracker suggests it has suffered its first sustained net loss since October 2023. A massive humiliation for Putin. www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

💪💪💪 If you're looking for something good happening in the world, look right here. Some long range chickens are coming home to the roost.

Always listen to Ukraine

Looking forward to Eurovision 2034 with just Russia, Israel, USA, and the Sudanese RSF.

This is like a real representation of the “This Is Fine” meme. Moscow today.

Very interesting survey of AAPOR members by Jon Cohen of TrueDot (formerly SurveyMonkey, formerly WaPo). Professional survey researchers are comfortable with many uses for Generative AI in survey research ... just not silicon samples

Oh really? What happened in 1964?

I’ve been thinking for almost 4.5 years about what happens after Russia loses. Lots of things have changed but not my opinion that people need to be ready when it happens. Research can help. Hopefully I won't have to post this next year too. substack.com/home/post/p-...

Garry Kasparov: Nothing will ever change in Russia unless Putin loses the war in Ukraine. Only then will Russia have a small chance of change, but without Ukraine’s victory, all other efforts to change Russia are meaningless. #LennartMeriConference

Never in the field of human endeavour has so much been fucked up for so many by so few.

The main reason why authoritarian regimes and extremist groups invest heavily in manipulating platforms like X. This is all about influencing a small number of high-impact actors, such as journalists and politicians, who then disseminate their messages to much larger audiences.

I need a mango man. I didn’t know they have them. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Top: Trump with leader of democratic Ukraine. Bottom: Trump with leader of authoritarian China.

I’ve been thinking for almost 4.5 years about what happens after Russia loses. Lots of things have changed but not my opinion that people need to be ready when it happens. Research can help. Hopefully I won't have to post this next year too. substack.com/home/post/p-...

Russia openly posted a video of a russian drone attack on clearly marked UN vehicles in Ukraine’s Kherson region, bragging with their attack which has nearly killed the UN local director. Some people ask: why do russians post such videos? Here is my THREAD with explanation: 1/x

“The main purpose of the courts, when you get right down to it, is to force bullshit into contact with reality. This is inconvenient for bullshit artists, disconcerting for bullshit believers, and an immense relief for the rest of us.” www.readtheline.ca/p/clarke-rie...