Snow is wrapping up in Toronto. On my deck, there were about 2" of icy snow on the ground before the storm started. Three measurements to try to avoid/account for drifting averaged 26.16". Take away 2" but also account for compacting, & downtown #Toronto probs got 24-26" (60-66cms) #ONwx #ONstorm

Extraordinary sights from @utoronto.ca and the city of #Toronto right now; incredible snowfall rates, and the all-time snowfall record in jeopardy for parts of the city. Snow squall will begin drifting south, but not before dumping even more snow #ONwx #ONstorm

The city of #Toronto & @utoronto.ca campus midway through what will surely be a historic winter storm. No doubt, the most intense snowfall rates I've ever experienced. The lake effect snow band is just sitting over the city, and still has many more inches in it before it drifts south #ONwx $ONstorm

Sunday-Sun night winter storm for S. Ontario & the NE US is finally coming into the window of the high-resolution models. Here’s three w/ good agreement for #Toronto: ~10” (25cms) with locally 12-13” (30-33cms) where lake enhancement focuses. A mess for #NYC: models all over the place #ONwx #ONstorm

Another week, another major winter storm to impact the Northeast US & southeast Ontario on Sun-Mon. Again, the computer model spread is huge: Look @ the implications for NYC & Toronto! Here's 2 outlier & 2 in-the-middle scenarios. Best bet IMO is the ICON but shifts/refinements likely #ONwx #ONstorm

In 2025 @chrishillion.bsky.social, @ascherz.bsky.social & I proposed a theory of "democratic frontsliding" & "restorative disobedience" to confront recalcitrant "autocratic enclaves" & restore democracies that backslid. Poland is our key case. Read/share our new/improved paper! tinyurl.com/mrx7kep9

This is the best speech, just from a pure rhetoric perspective - its sophistication and persuasiveness - that I've seen a politician deliver in a good long while. Really recommend watching or reading the whole thing.

Final tally near the @utoronto.ca St. George campus is around/just shy of 11” (27-28cms), though difficult to measure/to avoid drifting. Just 10 miles north of downtown near Vaughan, where the heavy snow band lingered all day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 20” reports (50 cms) #ONwx #ONstorm

As we go to sleep, Toronto may be in for a historic snowstorm & a huge forecast bust. Evening run of the computer models go from low end of 10-12” (25-30cms) to high end of 17-20” (43-50cms) of snow. Even now, Environ Canada’s snowfall warning only forecasts 10-20cms. We’ll see! 🫣 #ONwx #ONstorm

Toronto friends: on Wed nite-Thurs the official forecast from Environ Canada is flurries/2cms of snow. But some computer models now predict a snowstorm as temps plummet & snow/liquid ratios skyrocket. Look @ this insane spread just 24hrs out: 4 models forecasting from 0.8”/2cms to 18.9”/48cms😵‍💫 #ONwx

👀 67% increase in the number of applications to the Toronto political science PhD program from last year, 92% increase from 2024 👀

From November 2025 - Leveling and Spotlighting: How the European Court of Justice Favors the Weak to Promote Its Legitimacy - cup.org/4oWD6ZT - @silje-hermansen.bsky.social, @tommasopavone.bsky.social & @louisabo.bsky.social #OpenAccess

We are delighted to announce that @tommasopavone.bsky.social, Caleb Pomeroy and Nicole Bernhardt have each received Connaught New Researcher Awards for 2024-25! www.politics.utoronto.ca/news/connaug...

can't wait to dig into the data with @tommasopavone.bsky.social. This is probably one of the largest survey experiments ever run in Slovakia, a country you will not find analysed in the big journals very often

Can reflecting on past democratic backsliding episodes “inoculate” citizens into vigilant liberal democrats? Drawing on the Slovak case, @movadek.bsky.social & I will find out: our registered report is in-principle accepted @thejop.bsky.social & survey results forthcoming! See tinyurl.com/uv5wybhs

“Is the @eucourtofjustice.bsky.social a social court protecting the ‘have nots’ or an economic court beholden to the ‘haves’?” @silje-hermansen.bsky.social, @louisabo.bsky.social & I have an answer on @verfassungsblog.de. This holiday season, our analysis give us reason to be biased for hope:

🌍 #SGEU26 @ecprsgeu.bsky.social Section seeking Panels & Papers 💼 Judicial Politics, Legal Mobilisation, and Empirical Legal Studies 🪑 @dnaurin.bsky.social & @tommasopavone.bsky.social ⌛ Deadline: 10 Dec buff.ly/wxnegaD #CallforProposals #Polisky

A paper titled "The Credibility Revolution in Political Science" is making the rounds (osf.io/preprints/so...). Kudos to the authors for the key proviso below (pg 34): quant political scientists pursing design-based causal inference arguably need MORE, not less, engagement w/ qual research & theory

10 days left to apply for our section on judicial politics, legal mobilisation and empirical legal studies at ECPR SGEU in Catania, Sicily on July 1-3, 2026. @tommasopavone.bsky.social and I look forward to your paper/panel submission!

There's a debate about replication going on re-the flagship polisci journal. My 2 cents: if replications become an incentive to seize mistakes (all papers are imperfect) to make examples of colleagues in the public square/social media, this'll get toxic. Let's not. We're contrarian enough. Be kind 🙏

🌍 #SGEU26 @ecprsgeu.bsky.social Section seeking Panels & Papers ✒️ Judicial Politics, Legal Mobilisation, and Empirical Legal Studies 🪑 @dnaurin.bsky.social & @tommasopavone.bsky.social ⌛⬇️ Deadline: 10 Dec buff.ly/aiDifx0 #EU #CallforProposals #Polisky #EU

Do you research judicial politics/legal mobilisation/empirical legal studies in the European Union? Submit your paper/panel proposal for the @ecprsgeu.bsky.social conference in Catania, Sicily on July 1-3 2026! @dnaurin.bsky.social & I are section co-chairs. Deadline Dec 10: ecpr.eu/Events/Event...

So delighted to see this out 🤩🤩

Friends, my article w/ @silje-hermansen.bsky.social and @louisabo.bsky.social on how/why the "have nots" come out ahead in litigation @eucourtofjustice.bsky.social is out in @bjpols.bsky.social! We propose a theory of judicial leveling & spotlighting to explain these contrarian results: take a look!

The @utoronto.ca continues to recruit talent: two leading economists & a physicist from Stanford & MIT are coming to Toronto! This is the value of being @ a large research university in a multicultural city, a liberal democracy & a state committed to research funding: www.utoronto.ca/news/new-con...

The 2025 Carney Gov't budget includes this "brain gain" provision to recruit/retain int'l scholars in Canadian universities like @utoronto.ca: excellent! Would like to see even more emphasis on junior scholars (postdocs, assistant profs): they're the future, are often under-placed, & they'd stay!

💫Second great news of the day The book “Dissensus over Liberal Democracy: Insights from European Judges” is finally out with @bloomsburyacad.bsky.social @hartpublishing.bsky.social I’m truly happy to have co-edited this volume with Ramona Coman, Viktor Kazai, and Andrew Bradley. A thread 🧵 1/N

The government of Jamaica has set up a portal for contributing to official relief efforts. I will update this thread if anything analogous opens up for Haiti, Cuba, or the DR supportjamaica.gov.jm

Hurricane #Melissa is strengthening right up until landfall: 180+MPH sustained winds, 220+MPH gusts, 896MB surface pressure in the eye...terrifying & by far strongest hurricane on record to hit #Jamaica. This will be a humanitarian & ecological disaster, & I hope the int’l community is ready to help

The crisis afflicting US politics has antecedents predating Trump; the same is true for the crisis of US universities. Read Clifford Ando’s parable & warning from the University of Chicago- my dear alma mater, whose administration abandoned “the life of the mind:” www.compactmag.com/article/the-...

Kudos to my former employer, @uarizona.bsky.social, for this brave decision! Tying research funds to anything other than merit opens the gates to political capture. UofA was under intense pressure from the state legislature, yet it thankfully listened to students/faculty: tucson.com/news/local/e...

@utoronto.ca, do better! The Uni is excluding recent hires from cost-of-living adjustments that an arbitrator decided ALL faculty/librarians deserve. This harms junior colleagues struggling w/ inflation: we’ve organized a petition demanding @utoronto.ca change course. Spread the word! www.utfa.org

𝐈𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐥 𝐥𝐢𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞? Are judges letting their guard down as the French state consolidates executive power? On Nov 4, CEFMF @utoronto.ca will host a keynote by Stéphanie Hennette Vauchez and Antoine Vauchez sounding the alarm. Join us & register!: tinyurl.com/4w7p8twb

Missing Guardian of the Treaties (latest). Nothing new however unfortunately www.politico.eu/article/curi... @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social @tommasopavone.bsky.social

Time to re-up my @verfassungsblog.de post from 2023 about the "EU's Faustian Bargain" w/ Orbán: "if the EU continues to treat the rule of law as a bargaining chip and to make promises it won’t keep, for how much longer will our Union remain a club worth joining?": verfassungsblog.de/the-eus-faus...

The Centre for the Study of France & the Francophone World (CEFMF) is hosting many brilliant francophone scholars @utoronto.ca in 2025/26 via two speaker series: “States & Legalities under Stress” & the “French History Seminar.” Find out more/join our listserv: munkschool.utoronto.ca/cees/centre-...

And Justice Sotomayor remains one of only two voices on the "Court" who consistently show us what "speaking truth to power" looks like. Unfortunately, as an institution the SCOTUS instead seems intent to remind us daily what "faustian bargains" look like

New York LGA to Toronto YYZ this evening. Stunning @aircanada.bsky.social

🗳️ Restoring democracy after years of erosion is hard work 🇪🇺 In a new IGCC blogpost, @chrishillion.bsky.social , @tommasopavone.bsky.social & I argue that "frontsliding" may require restorative disobedience—proportionate defiance of entrenched illiberal structures. 👉 ucigcc.org/blog/poland-...

Restoring democracy after years of erosion is hard work: it takes more than democrats winning an election. This is the lesson @chrishillion.bsky.social, @ascherz.bsky.social & I derive from Poland in a new blogpost discussing our paper on “democratic frontsliding” in the EU: tinyurl.com/mvz3acbz

@silje-hermansen.bsky.social presented work with @louisabo.bsky.social and @tommasopavone.bsky.social on the conditions under which the European Court of Justice will accept novel legal arguments advanced by private parties #ecprgc25

Nice to see @economist.com discussing my research with @tommasopavone.bsky.social on the decline in law enforcement by the @ec.europa.eu - “The sleeping policeman at the heart of Europe” economist.com/europe/2025/... from The Economist

The neighborhood raccoons didn’t know my flights were cancelled today, and that I’d be there to witness them “moving in” to my outdoor deck to live their best summer life 😂🥰 videos in the replies below @toronto.ca #TorontoRaccoons

Toronto has been on a hiring spree! Some context though: @uoft.bsky.social has long attracted int’l talent. I’m lucky to be on faculty at a world-class university in a diverse global city. Coming here is an incredible opportunity regardless of what happens down south: www.nytimes.com/2025/06/28/w...

100%. Today's ruling highlights as clearly as ever that the US Supreme Court -packed/coopted during Trump's 1st term- is at war w/ the lower federal courts. The lower courts are trying to defend rights & the rule of law, but the Supreme Court is enabling executive aggrandizement & trampling rights

𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗽𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿 w/ @chrishillion.bsky.social & @ascherz.bsky.social! How can governments restore liberal democracy after a period of democratic erosion? We theorize "democratic frontsliding" & how obstructions to frontsliding can be overcome, using Poland/the EU as a case: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

𝗙𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 in @bjpols.bsky.social! We show the @eucourtofjustice.bsky.social neither favors the "haves" nor has a pro-business bias: it consistently levels the odds for disempowered individuals & spotlights support for their rights. Why 𝙙𝙤𝙣'𝙩 the haves come out ahead? Read on: tinyurl.com/28662tae

This paper is a must-read for anyone interested in gender bias and judicial decision-making. Congratulations @louisabo.bsky.social!

Liberalism - and democracy - wins the day in Canada, in an election result that would have been inconceivable just two months ago. A clear rejection of reactionary rhetoric & American expansionism, a clear endorsement of competent leadership & pivoting towards Europe www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

I’m so grateful to @lisasundstrom.bsky.social for penning a truly insightful & generous review of #TheGhostwriters. Lisa raises illuminating similarities/contrasts between Euro-lawyers in the EU & lawyering before the ECtHR- a promising path for future research! Read it here: doi.org/10.1017/lsi....