One of the many things I had never grasped before @valentimvicente.bsky.social’s seminal theory articulated it so clearly: “There’s no way back to the time before normalization.Anyone who can openly express far-right views today has no reason to return to an earlier time” www.zeit.de/politik/2025...

Einst unterschätzten Umfragen die Zustimmung zur SVP-Minarett- bzw. Ausschaffungsinitiative. Heute gehen Wählende ebenso wie Politiker:innen offen mit ihrer Zustimmung zur SVP-VI „für eine 10 Millionen-Schweiz“ um. Die Normalisierung der radikalen Rechte, auch in der Schweiz

#POLITKOLUMNE: It’s not so much what people think that has changed, but what has become *publicly sayable*. The fear of social stigma when voting for the radical right has declined. Very glad to have been able to cover @valentimvicente.bsky.social ’s seminal research www.derbund.ch/radikale-rec...

One can relate the 1970s nicely to the pathbreaking research by @valentimvicente.bsky.social: not only did politicians become more likely to join the radical right (p.16), but even Schwarzenbach as the original political entrepreneur of the anti-immigration agenda began to distance himself from them

In June, Switzerland will vote on what is so far the most radical far-right popular initiative launched by the Swiss People‘s Party SVP: capping the population at 10M (currently ≈9.1M). In this thread, I’ll break down what it’s about and how it fits into broader findings on Swiss direct democracy

A primeira página do PÚBLICO de domingo, 19 de Abril. Mais em publico.pt

@valentimvicente.bsky.social no @publico.pt: "Passamos a nossa vida quotidiana toda sem nunca ver ninguém expressar esse tipo de ideias, mas quando chega o dia das eleições, desde que haja um líder com este tipo de talento, essas pessoas vão votar nele." www.publico.pt/2026/04/19/p...

Congratulations to our HoD @catherinedevries.bsky.social on her publication in @cpsjournal.bsky.social! Studying the UK, they find that while a majority express support for fiscal consolidation in principle, only a minority prioritize it when facing trade-offs. journals.sagepub.com/eprint/RTJFW...

Later in the term: @valentimvicente.bsky.social (IE University) on the normalization of the radical right @hannafolsz.bsky.social (Stanford) on democratic backsliding Vello Pettai (ECMI) on ethnic domination in Soviet & post-Soviet Estonia

This summer term, our joint lecture series at @baltic-peripeties.bsky.social and @ifzo.bsky.social returns with "Democratic Challenges in Europe". For this term's programme, @oksanaalekseev.bsky.social and I invited 7 fantastic scholars to discuss democratic resilience, stability, and contestation.

In the wake of HU elections, social media flooded with „Just do x and far-right populism will be defeated“-solutionism. If it were as simple as anti-corruption campaigning, Fidesz would have been defeated by 2018.

A lot of opinions about Hungary's election. Many democrats would vehemently oppose Tisza's conservative, and at times, far-right policies. Yet, Hungarian democracy was achieved, once again, by a movement party that campaigned on Hungary as a Western *European* (read: not Russian) nation-state.

Similar to Poland in 2023, young voters in Hungary seem to have turned out to vote in larger numbers than in earlier elections and - importantly so, as this poll suggests - have massively voted AGAINST the illiberal incumbent party.

💥Polls closed in Hungary. No exit poll, but 21 Research Institute’s Apr 8–11 exclusive survey for @telexhu.bsky.social shows the opposition Tisza party leading Orbán's Fidesz 55–38, with the far-right Our Homeland around the 5% threshold. Tisza is on the verge of a parliamentary supermajority.

Happy Hungarian election day! Our final poll tracker update gives Tisza, the centre-right opposition, a 6pt lead over Orban's Fidesz: www.economist.com/interactive/...

Dia muito triste para as humanidades portuguesas. Tive a sorte de ter História das Ideias Políticas com ele e aprendi imenso. Que descanse em paz. www.publico.pt/2026/04/11/c...

Tomorrow 8 April I will be speaking at @europeatharvard.bsky.social about my latest work on countering illiberalism in liberal democracies /1 ces.fas.harvard.edu/events/2026/...

Articles by D Bateman (Cornell), L Cella, I Cinar, S Stokes (all Chicago), @andresuribe.bsky.social, L Jakli (Harvard), B Greskovits (CEU), J Wittenberg (Berkeley), M Laebens (CEU), M Slarzynski (Polish Ac of Sciences), R Lieberman (Hopkins), @daschloz.bsky.social @valentimvicente.bsky.social /end

🚨New preprint and our results are rather concerning.. We find the "boiling frog" equivalent of AI use. Using large-scale RCTs, we provide *casual* evidence that AI assistance reduces persistence and hurts independent performance. And these effects emerge after just 10–15 minutes of AI use! 1/

The contrast of the hope, ingenuity, and teamwork it takes to explore space and what is going on in the White House right now is a lot.

Popular attitudes are often seen as a safeguard against democratic backsliding: if citizens don’t oppose lib democracy, politicians have little incentive to erode it. In @cpsjournal.bsky.social I argue that, while intuitive, this reasoning conflates two states of the world: doi.org/10.1177/0010...

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2... Absolutely gross. Also worrying to think about the effect this can have as a signal of what is acceptable

We are excited to welcome Stephane Wolton (LSE) and Mariaelisa Epifanio (Liverpool), who will be staying at IE for two months as Visiting Professors. More information about them and their research can be found at their websites: stephanewolton.com and mariaelisaepifanio.com

¿Te interesan los experimentos de encuestas y los conjoint experiments? 📊 En la @uc3m.es tenemos 10 ayudas de 300€ para nuestra microcredencial. Es la oportunidad perfecta para especializarte. ⏳ Plazo: 9 de abril. Toda la info aquí 👉 www.uc3m.es/formacion-pe...

1/ Happy to release StatsClaw — an open-source multi-agent workflow for building statistical software with AI. w/ @tianzhuqin.bsky.social Site: statsclaw.ai Paper: bit.ly/statsclaw GitHub: github.com/statsclaw/

🚨 Just shipped a major update to GERDA, the German Election Database. - State elections update: new years + mail-in - 3 new election types: Mayoral, County, European - Municipal elections: 1984-2025 - Meinungsbild public opinion - New website & features german-elections.com

Thrilled that my paper (w/@sarahobolt.bsky.social,@catherinedevries.bsky.social,@simonecremaschi.bsky.social) was accepted at the American Political Science Review! We find that declining public services fuel support for the populist right — and show why the right benefits more than other parties 🧵

Does public service deprivation boost support for the populist right? New evidence in our paper, conditionally accepted at APSR 🥳, where we study how GP closures shape voting intentions in England. 👇

Finished this today and it’s among the most moving novels I’ve read in a while. Hard to think of a more urgent and timely book. If you haven’t read it, I’d highly recommend it.

Very interesting new paper by @jonnekamphorst.bsky.social, Alexander Davenport, Marcus Heagly, @eliasdinas.bsky.social and @arnoutvanderijt.bsky.social questioning the idea of a momentum for winners of US Presidential primaries: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

A huge congratulations to DPIR Professors @whitproject.bsky.social, Laura Sjoberg and @borzyskowski.bsky.social, who have all been awarded top prizes by the International Studies Association!:https://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/three-dpir-academics-awarded-top-prizes-international-studies-association

Israel has not prosecuted its citizens for killing Palestinian civilians in the occupied West Bank since the start of this decade, a Guardian analysis of legal data and public records show, creating impunity for a campaign of violence.

The bills are sweeping in scope and echo efforts to target transgender people in the United States and, increasingly, internationally.

📣 New job at Oxford's Centre for Advanced Social Science Methods (CASSM)! 📣 The Departments of Politics & IR (DPIR) and Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI) are hiring an Associate Professor of Causal and Experimental Methods. Come work with me and amazing Oxford peeps! Deadline NOON April 27th.

Important new research shows the number of Americans who are neutral about democracy exceeds those who oppose it. These neutrals are NOT inattentive. They are: uninformed, cynical, ambivalent, conditional. @nathumbehav.nature.com Democracy supporters speak out! www.nature.com/articles/s41...

I think @vdeminstitute.bsky.social is doing absolutely terrific work. But classifying Portugal 🇵🇹 as an 'Electoral Democracy' (ED), rather than liberal democracy, and putting it on the watchlist of countries 'very close to becoming autocratizers', frankly, makes no sense.

Having said that, the discussion about measurement is endless, and v-dem also needs to be compared with what used to exist in this field. And here, the improvement in both theory and transparency that the project brought is huge.

Very happy to be one of the participants in this summer course on democracy, organized by @lavezzolo.bsky.social at @medeg-uc3m.bsky.social. Consider joining us!

This International Women’s Day, we’re celebrating the excellence and contributions of women across DPIR. Explore our collection of student–supervisor collaborations — told in their own words: https://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/international-womens-day-8th-march-2026

Congrats Vicente @valentimvicente.bsky.social !!! And if you are interested in Vicente's book (and you should), you can watch his presentation, followed by the comments of Catherine de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social , recorded some months ago at UNED, here: canal.uned.es/video/68394f...

Today at 4pm GMT: @gaetanoinglese.bsky.social is presenting “The Political Consequences of AI‑driven Employment Threats” at the @lsegovernment.bsky.social Political Behaviour Seminar (hybrid), organised with @sarahobolt.bsky.social, @florianfoos.bsky.social & @mathiaspoertner.bsky.social. Join us!

Learn how to think strategically. This introduction to game theory uses real political and economic examples to show how actors decide when others’ choices matter. No calculus required - just curiosity and willingness to reason rigorously. Apply now > bit.ly/40uwAyE

This Thursday (March 12, 12h) we are very excited to welcome Kristen Kao (Gothenburg), who will give a talk on "The Effects of Injustice on Legitimacy in Post-Conflict Settings".

Polls have closed in the first of this year's five German state elections, in prosperous Baden-Württemberg. It's looking like a remarkable win-from-behind by the Greens under @oezdemir.de. Full results over the course of the evening.

On #InternationalWomensDay2026, we celebrate #FemaleLeadership! In an interview with @revistasabado.bsky.social, @novafrica.bsky.social Scientific Director and #NovaSBE Vice Dean for Research @catiabatista.bsky.social reflects on the responsibilities and challenges of being a female academic.

Be our allies, there is so much to fight for in this era of eroding rights #IWD2026

Today, Switzerland is heading to the polls to vote on 4 national ballot measures. Yet national and int‘l media are already focusing on the next vote in June: a far-right proposal to cap the population at 10 million. It’s a telling sign how strongly the far-right SVP has come to dominate the agenda

After nearly a decade measuring American public support for political violence, @nathankalmoe.bsky.social and I have published a somewhat comprehensive guide to measuring these attitudes. This includes historical comparisons and responses to common critiques. doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

Basically this, except that paying attention to empire was a cheap way of catching conservatism unfiltered.