Do architecture and urban planning affect political behavior? Happy to share a paper that @tesaliarizzo.bsky.social and I have coming out at the APSR which uses computer vision to investigate how the built environment shapes inequalities in civic participation in Mexico: osf.io/preprints/so.... 🧵1/5

lol, also technically human extinction ought to be quite good for gdp per capita

Paths to Power (PtP) is out in @bjpols.bsky.social! It is a database with data on cabinet members' social profile globally from 1966-2021. This is a great team effort with @chknutsen.bsky.social, @peterla.bsky.social, @inalkristiansen.bsky.social. But many more helped us along the way 🙏 A short 🧵

My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.

Very happy to be able to share the polling-level dataset on Indian Parliamentary Elections 2009, 2014, 2019 that we have been working on for more than a decade. Both the data and the data descriptor are open access: rdcu.be/eujHH @statsvitenskap.bsky.social @unioslo-svfak.bsky.social

My book w/@profsorelle.bsky.social will be out in January! These ideas have brewed since I interned at Queens Legal Services 20 years ago. The book is for anyone who cares about people, justice, power & democracy. Much more to share more in the coming months! press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

Came across a cool paper on how false beliefs are sustained in equilibrium. In Murcia, prayers for rain appear to work - because they are timed to occur when rain is increasingly likely. Praying for rain globally is only found where rainfall is predictable with time: www.nber.org/papers/w31411

This book is relevant to thinking about the present constitutional moment in the US. Constitutional and federal mythology aside, the US has always had some elements of extreme political centralization in the hands of the presidency that go back to a desire to create an electoral monarchy

I will be engaging a conversation with @daliyang.bsky.social, @vicshih.bsky.social, @tompepinsky.com and Martin Dimitrov on my new book at the #APSA2025 Author Meets Critics panel on 9/14, 10:00 to 11:30am PDT. Come join us if you are still around. www.cambridge.org/core/books/d...

Incredible parallels in this Berinsky & @gabelenz.bsky.social paper. Politicians didn't stand up to Joe McCarthy in large part because they incorrectly inferred McCarthy/ism was extremely popular. Not standing up to McCarthy was a kind of 1950s Popularism gated academic.oup.com/poq/article/...

Come check out our panel on Bureaucratic Performance in the Developing World at APSA (Thu, September 11, 12:00 to 1:30pm PDT in East Meeting Level, East 12. I'll be presenting some new work on how farmers and officials in India learned to game satellite-based environmental enforcement.....

I wasn’t familiar with this terminology but the “missing intercept” problem seems like a good way to think about partial vs general equilibrium effects and why the latter isn’t just about adding up the former: voxdev.org/topic/method...

The American Viewer: Political Consequences of Entertainment Media The American Viewer: Political Consequences of Entertainment Media By Eunji Kim, Columbia University and Shawn Patterson Jr., University of Pennsylvania American voters consume an astounding amount of entertainment media, yet its…

What a way to kick off the @ucmerced.bsky.social academic year! Political Science and CAPE hosted the inaugural Fall Kick-Off for faculty and students last week, featuring a celebration of Professor Christopher Ojeda's new book The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why It Matters.

The thing about industrial policy is that it doesn’t seem to work very well unless you have a highly professionalized and relatively politically autonomous bureaucracy (think MITI in Japan vs license raj in India) that implements it. I think that’s the fundamental problem in the US spanning party

Teaching a new class on technology and politics this fall — which tries to think about contemporary tech governance issues via the historical experience of past technological revolutions (IR, atom bomb, printing press, automobile, etc) Sharing the syllabus in case it is of interest..!

I’m starting to think everyone needs a basic primer in what machine learning is, just like they need to know algebra/the basics of calculus. It’s just as accessible and I think important for critical thinking about the tools everyone will increasingly be using, including government

In a polarized climate, nothing the president does is a bridge too far for co-partisans. Worth reading this article: muse.jhu.edu/article/729166

"The Value of Clean Water: Experimental Evidence From Rural India" static1.squarespace.com/static/558ef...

The student newspaper. This fell. To the student. Newspaper.

Peter Temin has himself written on the history of economic history at MIT here: read.dukeupress.edu/hope/article...

The dominant framework that political scientists have to think about parties is Downsian competition — parties just fluidly adjust to what the electorate demands. In fact, parties are more like clubs, and insiders are more than happy to sink the whole ship if it means they enjoy rents for a while..

A great review essay from Avinash Dixit on why government should not / cannot be run like a business: www.edegan.com/pdfs/Dixit%2...

The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand: $678M raised through those spam tactics $282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies. $11M to actual campaigns (1.6%) The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.

An incredible embarrassment for an educational institution: www.insidehighered.com/news/governm...

Re-reading this classic, its central thesis — bureaucracies gain autonomy from politicians on the basis of their popularity/reputation — does not seem to hold up very well in the current era. Agencies with stellar reputations (Post Office, NASA, NIH, etc) have been carved up just the same?

I wonder if the Columbia leadership realizes (or cares) how much blowback there might be from *within* the academy. This post, from a Cornell Law professor, is worth reading: 3d.laboratorium.net/2025-07-25-c...

Gaza has reached IPC Phase 5, which is the worst level of food insecurity & is associated with high amounts of death & permanent disability. For people experiencing this level of malnutrition, even if it ended today, many of the consequences (eg personal outcomes like disabilities) are irreversible.

A really great paper on market power providing evidence that competition between agricultural middle-men results in better prices for farmers. The setting is rural India, but the principle is of course generally relevant: pages.jh.edu/schatt20/pap...

Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." -- a saying surprisingly universal in its relevance to things that organizations/governments do

Been a busy year in the data mines.📊 Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem. All charts free to use:

Interesting (also methodologically)

I'd like to believe this. But based on how I've seen markets react to catastrophic institutional erosion recently, I'm not convinced that firing the Fed Chair wouldn't just produce a bit of short term volatility in the stock market before returning to normal/rising ever higher...

I’m persuaded — loop magnified by researchers who churn out papers and throw them at the wall and see what sticks, benefitting from errors in the screening process. the “volume” model is effective but creates a huge negative externality for the field , but it self replicates because of its success

Survey invitations often describe the topic of the survey. A simple, classic example of how this biases results: survey recruitment materials about bird watching led to higher estimates of the % of people who engage in bird-watching. doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

if Kafka's "The Trial" were written today, it would take the form of mandatory corporate trainings 😤

interesting claim that political centralization (in ancient Egypt) wasn’t driven by centralized irrigation as often thought by social scientists (Wittfogel hypothesis also revived by recent empirical work). I do think we lean toward ecological determinism because it makes for clean identification..

Important — I’ve observed that some of the other event study/ pre trend analogs in the new DiD packaged can also prove a little tricky to interpret see e.g. economics.stackexchange.com/questions/54...

Looks cool, especially the “and change” part in addition to the usual persistence storyline…

Been doing some archival research on the English civil war — amusing to come across what looks like a bored secretary’s doodle from 1645? From the order book of the “committee on plundered ministers” (which evicted ministers suspected of royalist sympathies) so may be some kind of religious hat…

Motivated by thinking a bit recently on whether political scientists really need a regression in every paper (I think we need many fewer)

Two interesting posts on statistic al testingand what counts as a discovery in physics to read side by side: i) www.argmin.net/p/the-higgs-...; ii) theoryandpractice.org/2024/10/Yes,...