“Property guru” Samuel Leeds sells expensive courses using viral videos promoting tax “loopholes”. He claims to have used one himself. Our analysis shows it doesn’t work. And if he really used it, he owes HMRC a substantial amount of tax. Thread 🧵

Big news on farm and small business tax.

What happens when a law firm acts for a business widely suspected of fraud — run by a convicted fraudster, owned by unknown parties, and unable to answer fraud allegations? And threatens whistleblowers, regulators and even the police who try to stop it? Nothing.

Another client of Douglas Barrowman's tax avoidance firm, AML, loses in a tax tribunal. Barrowman's clients have probably lost hundreds of millions of pounds. Barrowman hasn't lost a penny. It's just wrong. buff.ly/DCsy5oy

The good news - the OBR says the Budget didn't hurt growth. The bad news - the OBR says the Budget didn't improve growth:

Something that's been under-reported: Property tax is devolved. As of right now, there's no mansion tax happening in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland. Probably there will be, with each creating their own tax, potentially with different bands and rates...

I'm hoping to unite Left and Right - they'll all hate my piece in today's Sunday Times, saying that successive Budgets have overtaxed the highest-earning 20%, and under-taxed both the median earner and the richest 0.1%.https://buff.ly/BqRFpJr

I've now heard from several people who left the UK because of exit tax rumours, and others who plan to leave because they think it will happen next time. The exit tax leaks were really unfortunate. It would be a very good idea for Ms Reeves to clearly rule out any future exit tax.

Discussed the Budget yesterday on the FT's Money Clinic podcast, with Claer Barrett, Stuart Kirk and Tej Parikh...

We’ve mapped the mansion tax. You can see who's paying - which constituency, which postcode - and how many "mansions" are near you. Full interactive map here 👇

It's time to be nice about the Budget. The council tax surcharge is a good policy. Very compromised/imperfect, but still good policy. This is why:

Me being grumpy on Peston about the lack of pro-growth tax reform in the Budget: youtu.be/ZKx_qF3YpoU?...

I'm still really angry about all the pre-Budget leaking. Hugely damaging to the UK. The exit tax rumours in particular. The uncertainty didn't end with the Budget - I expect an ongoing impact on business confidence and domestic/foreign investment. Indefensible.

A solicitor, Andrew Milne has been bullying leaseholders across Sheffield into paying him extraordinary sums, with no legal basis. Why hasn't the SRA stopped him? Because he's conducted an extraordinary campaign against the SRA. 180 complaints. Two judicial reviews. More here: buff.ly/LmLVegM

Weird that the Budget is so "back-loaded", with very few tax rises next year, and then massive effects from the threshold freeze in 2030 Why?

Bad news for anyone thinking of responding to the consultation on the new electric vehicle duty. The consultation opens today, and closes last March.

Our tax calculator is now updated for the Budget: taxpolicy.org.uk/wp-content/a... You'll see no change in the tax you pay in 2026/27 unless you're a landlord or receive interest/dividend income.

There's a lot in this chart. Would love to see the equivalent for e.g. France or Denmark. I expect we'd see: less tax on median earner. More tax on top decile. More welfare and benefit-in-kind at the higher deciles.

The good, the bad and the ugly of the Budget: The bad: the Budget contained no significant tax reforms, and almost nothing in the way of pro-growth measures. The capital allowance change will reduce business investment - it's positively anti-growth.

How much will the council tax surcharge reduce the price of £5m houses? Probably somewhere between £150k and £375k. So if you own a £5m house, you just lost money. If you were planning to buy one, you haven't (because you'll pay the tax, but save on the purchase)

Lots of updates to our Budget analysis - all at taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/26/t...

All the Budget papers are now out: buff.ly/RvwvmnB

Big news, income tax is being charged this year. (It has to be renewed each year or it ceases to apply. Because it's a temporary tax, introduced to fund the Napoleonic wars)

Me, seeing the OBR Budget report half an hour before the Budget:

Live-updating our Budget report as the Chancellor speaks: buff.ly/1dW05S4

It's all about fiscal creep.

The Chancellor hasn't really started, but we know almost everything thanks to the OBR leak (spotted by Beth Rigby) Some quick thoughts: buff.ly/1dW05S4

Beth Rigby spotted that the OBR accidentally published their Budget papers too soon. It's down now, but I've archived a copy: buff.ly/SfFAiCu

Most of the attention tomorrow will be on the big tax-raising measures. But there are an unusual number of important other items, which appear technical, but will impact everyone from billionaire non-doms to the poorest people in the country. We'll be watching for these six:

The map on the left shades constituencies by % of top council tax band properties (Band H in England, Band H and I in Wales) The map on the right shades by median house prices. Very different maps. That's the problem with council tax.

I'm joining an FT Budget webinar this Friday lunchtime Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back. (Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )

I'm joining an FT Budget webinar this Friday lunchtime Budget happiness 100% guaranteed, or your money back. (Okay, it's free, whether or not you're an FT subscriber. Registration: buff.ly/JqTpKLx )

These reports the Government could revalue council tax bands F, G and H don't make sense to me. Here's what could actually be going on:

What's happened to council tax over the last 30 years? Has it really doubled? Yes. Here's how, and here's why: buff.ly/7HSGJij

In case you missed it: our investigation into how Sky Bet relocated to Malta to avoid £55m of tax/year This kind of thing is often reported as "perfectly proper, and there's no suggestion that any laws were broken". But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken. 🧵

Hope HMRC are investigating whether Gill evaded tax on the bribes he received. (Bribes are absolutely taxable income, but people tend not to declare them to HMRC...)

These "property gurus" charge people a fortune for terrible advice. Here's Samuel Leeds selling a series of tax ideas that don't work. Clueless. And here's an actual tax adviser explaining why they fail: buff.ly/2hyertH

New investigation: how Sky Bet relocated to Malta to avoid £55m of tax/year This kind of tax planning is often reported as "clever, but perfectly proper, and there's no suggestion that any laws were broken". But here it looks improper. Laws may have been broken. 🧵

Our new report on Sky Bet's relocation to Malta. Full details of what we think they did, whether it was legal, and how HMRC and the Government could stop it: taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/18/s...

If you have any time on your hands (given half the internet is down), and an interest in tax, law or webdesign, we've just redesigned the Tax Policy Associates website. Any and all feedback gratefully received! buff.ly/1Avp5U4

Some kind of award for chutzpah should go to the guy who tried to get out of a £5m VAT civil VAT evasion penalty, by pleading The Bill of Rights Act 1689. (Unsuccessfully)

How messed-up is the current UK income tax system? How much worse could it get? And how much more will you pay? Other tax calculators tell you the tax you pay. Ours also shows the *marginal* rate - how much you'll pay on the next £. For everyone. taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/11/12/t...

Has anyone seen anything by a Florida defamation lawyer commenting on the likely prospects of Trump vs BBC? Lots of speculation, but would be good to see what an actual expert thinks.

Fiscal creep has been an amazingly easy way for recent Governments to raise tax without anyone noticing. Here's the higher rate tax band since 1990. It rose faster than inflation from 1994 to 2009. Then began a steep decline - with many more people paying higher rate.

NEW - we've data showing huge numbers of people reducing their income to avoid high marginal income tax rates. Not just at the £100k point (as previously reported). But at the £50k point:

Here's a chart of the marginal tax rate for someone with two kids. They pay 53% tax on every £ they earn between £60k and £80k. 62% on every £ they earn between £100k and £125k. 9% more if they've a student loan This is from our tax calculator: buff.ly/CFoExUX

Loose lips sink growth.

I proudly present the internet's nerdiest and prettiest tax calculator. Other calculators just calculate your tax. This one calculates your tax now, and under various Budget proposals. And draws a pretty chart showing the marginal and effective rates for *everyone*.

The internet is full of tax calculators. They're boring. Tomorrow we're launching our Budget tax calculator. Prettier and nerdier than all the rest put together.

This post went viral on X (but not here or on other platforms)... but I fear many missed my point. The video is funny and compelling but makes a bad error. It ignores incentives. The policy proposed would likely *increase* private jet emissions.