Ok, so, a scenario no one in macro is talking about re oil and Iran is: what if consumers aren’t stupid and front run the expected shock. Then we will see a spike in saving, loss of consumption, and a classic General Theory type demand led recession.

This will probably put me at the godless communist end of the Centrist Dad Spectrum but the delivery of competition to the British postal market and - very precisely - the removal of the Royal Mail monopoly is, I feel, one low key cause of people feeling everything has gone to shit

According to The Economist, Russia has begun losing territory in Ukraine for the first time since 2023. Russia’s spring offensive has effectively stalled, while Ukrainian forces have gradually managed to regain positions in recent months. 👇ALT

(I think the impact of ever heavier and larger cars is being massively missed in pothole discourse)

The lackcot govt pitch rolling and urgency around Hormuz is really concerning. Miliband (as always) has done some good things to accelerate transition but, aside from that, its been pretty inadequate. We're going to be hit like a ton of bricks in 4 weeks or so.

notable nobody argues that, for instance, the Kurds wanting a state of their own is irredeemable ethnonationalism for which they must be condemned forever.

Genuinely, how long are we going to let Twitter play this game with regulators? Being taken for rubes, with no real action in prospect. It was *literally* generating CSAM for days without action and it gets... a voluntary agreement

This is just going to rinse repeat until tanks are empty and spot markets go vertical, then the jawboning won't matter.

Zoe Harrison's penalty in the 42nd minute was the first penalty England have scored since the World Cup Semi Final... in 2022. Between those two penalties sat 305 tries.

We criticise Labour people for falling for the ecological fallacy a lot, but frankly Lib Dems are just as guilty of it. Yes, the party's seat gains are almost all from the Tories, but only a minority of their vote gains are. There's a reason 24Lab and 24LD voters are very close in views.

People who would not in a million years ever suggest someone speaking Arabic was grounds to attack them - who would rightly think anyone arguing that was horrifyingly racist - seem to have a blindspot when a Jewish man in a Jewish area is beaten up by a masked gang for speaking Hebrew

I call this Stoke Syndrome in Football: a manager gets a club to the highest realistic level they can be. Mid-table prem. After a while fans get bored. They want more. Demand the manager be sacked. Then they go down to their natural level. The Lib Dems are suffering from the political equivalent.

Looong week so only just got round to this @christabelcoops.bsky.social analysis of who Labour’s lost & where to pitch to get them back (economically left, socially liberal). Clarity across labour now that chasing Reform isn’t the answer but …https://thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/who-is-labour-for

Except we dont, do we? Three of our last six foreign secretaries have been from ethnic minorities England's team captains of our big 3 national sports teams include a black man, two gay women, two people born abroad and the child of a migrant We show ourselves as a inclusive, multicultural nation

The American mind cannot comprehend

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp... @johnvanreenen.bsky.social flags up impressive increases in output per worker under Labour/Reeves Since flagging productivity has been the UK disease for decades, this seems worthy of remark. @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social

George, we have been to America. (also: how do the germans and Dutch get off scot free here?)

Rejoin as a long-term Labour objective is fine. But rejoin as an immediate prospect is insane and makes no sense. We can't just rejoin, we have to negotiate it and negotiations will not begin until there is clear evidence for the EU that the UK is serious. No such evidence currently exists.

Dunno Sam, reckon casually deporting a load of people *with legal right to be here* might have a bit of a hit on economic growth

I genuinely don't think the right has noticed the degree to which it has radicalised.

Lots of talk of Streeting and Burnham being at war over Europe but their statements were actually very similar. Streeting: "one day back in the European Union. Burham: "In the long term there is a case for [rejoining]". The emphasis is different but the basic position is the same.

(Or its that people there are still in favour, and so emphasising it is a bad idea. You're free to talk about it - and people will! - but you're probably not going to get many votes)

There are few better things than seeing two people you like break up - and then go on to have really good things with their new partners.

Interesting long read from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com making the case that declining birth rates are particularly tied up with the rise of smartphones and therefore fewer people in relationships, which in turn leads to fewer kids www.ft.com/content/fba3...

WHAT A TRY If youre not doing owt, stick on England-France. Fantastic first 15.

Yes. It's like the "island of strangers" stuff. It was months later, researching something else, that I actually read the full section and realised that most "progressives" (including me) had been quoting pellets served up to us by the Mail and the Telegraph.

A really strong bit of work from @christabelcoops.bsky.social - and quietly damning of the political strategy of the past 4 years. Essentially arguing for its reverse. Big question is how you can now break the impression that strategy has left. New leadership necessary but not sufficent imo

Its genuinely amazing to see such huge crowds for womens sport - and the emotional impact such support has on the players

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social The narrative on the Ukraine war has shifted. There's still, though, an assumption that Putin can keep going because there won't be a decisive moment of defeat. But wars don't always work like that. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...

The most important thing Chelsea, Everton and Leeds can achieve this year - and possibly in their entire existance as clubs - is to Send Spurs Down. The nation needs this.

Fwiw the Tory legislation was driven in large part by Manchester pushing for it. It was their big requirement as part of a devolution deal. The Tories did indeed do it, but made the legislation pretty difficult to use. After some persuasion, Burnham then made the decision to use it anyway.

The critique of Burnham here appears to be 'he only did the things he was allowed to do in law' and, erm, well, yes? He still did them lads

The government isn't forcing churches and community centres and town halls across the country to fly the Ukrainian flag. People are doing it themselves because we see a battle and we know which side we are on. There are lots of ways in which Reform is wildly out of touch with Britain.

Relatedly - this is why a lot of both Labour's internal debate and the wider left critique feels so small: its all on the same lines. A wealth tax here, a 10 year horizon there - a lot of it looking to very similar solutions to the govt and, tbh, to those the left had advocated since 1960

Once again I come back to the fact that a lot of the left economic critique of the govt is pretty unrelated to, you know, the actual policies the Government has

There are many reasons to criticise Starmer's party, and it was certainly an incoherent project. But to describe the economic policy of a government that has increased borrowing by £100bn and passed the Employment + Renters Rights Acts in this way is risible. www.newstatesman.com/politics/lab...

Also, annual tweet: Graham Norton is absolutely superb. Makes a ridiculously hard job look easy. Treading that line and staying entertaining is HARD. #Eurovision

I think them repeatedly saying 'it doesnt mean people hate you' isnt helping

I think we should try doing good songs

Can we now all agree thay Graham Norton is better as a host than Wogan?

Im... not that shocked

Actually Pulp: they would be the ultimate British Eurovision act and I reckon you could talk Jarvis into it

In order: Bulgaria Australia Moldova Belgium Finland

Who let @tpgroberts.bsky.social on stage?

Bulgaria for the win

Reminds me of the time the beautiful people of Liverpool followed the fash round with a speaker playing the Benny Hill theme tune.

The 'regional slavic conflict' line is *so* 'I've overthought myself into a corner' tell its untrue. Intelligence, its overrated

Sneaking a giant screen into the flagshagger march is one of the funniest things @ledbydonkeys.org have ever done. "STAY HYDRATED" 😂🤣😂

If this isn't "designed to stir up hatred" against Jews, what is? Why are the Met not arresting them?