There's no place in politics for people who offer false hope based on no evidence.

I suspect this is an overlooked cost of inflation. 10-20 years of even modest inflation means that those of us d'un certain age are always going "how much???" See also: me in any record shop.

Good this. One of the paradoxes of our time is that TV has dumbed down as the educational attainment of the people has increased.

at the 'stack, I am still quite taken with the "emergent misalignment" phenomenon backofmind.substack.com/p/the-misali...

This is the stupidest point in the dumbing down of UK politics - so far.

I suspect one reason the Labour right isn't very keen on PR is that it doesn't want to sell itself on its (scant) merits, preferring to bully the left into voting for it merely to keep out the right.

Also, even if you think the response to higher oil prices should be a fiscal easing (dubious), it needn't take the form of lower fuel duty rather than a more generalized tax cut - eg the council tax rebates of 2022.

In a complex society no interesting social theory is 100% true. But regulatory capture seems to come close.

With Reform UK calling for the return of grammar schools, I’ve shared an excerpt from my first book The Myth of Meritocracy examining the evidence on who actually benefits from selection. Clue: it isn’t working-class pupils. www.forthedeskdrawer.com/p/the-enduri...

For me, one problem with "social conservatism" is that it neglects the strengths of (small-c) conservatism - scepticism, empiricism & antipathy to changes such as Brexit - & is merely a code for hostility to out-groups. Here's one I wrote earlier: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-being-c...

New substack: "Being a lawyer, Sir Kier knows well the old saying, “never ask a question to which you don’t know the answer.” How to fix capitalism is one of those questions." chrisdillow.substack.com/p/wanted-a-n...

SW1 is the only area of Britain where people of working age regard newspapers as anything other than risible comics.

The question for stock markets is a political one: do obviously cretinous policies get reversed or not? If the answer's no, the problem isn't just a few £000s of losses; it's that the political system is broken.

This is nice. I'd add that, whatever the demerits are of liberalism as a political philosophy, they haven't suddenly emerged in the last few years. What's made liberalism unfashionable isn't some new intellectual discovery but socio-economic developments.

Good thread. And a chance to remind ourselves of this superb piece by John Kay: www.ft.com/content/bfb7...

In Richard II the Bishop of Carlisle makes an eloquent & correct speech warning of the effects of toppling Richard, to which Northumberland replies: "Well have you argued, sir, and, for your pains/Of capital treason we arrest you here." Shakey knew that truth doesn't much matter in politics.

It's nothing to do with evidence. Like Kruger on "sexual regulation" it's part of an urge to bring back the 50s: boys playing on bomb sites, everything shut on Sundays, everyone smoking & dripping for tea.

Yet another datapoint confirming what George Stigler said: "regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit." chrisdillow.substack.com/p/on-regulat...

"Pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field” - Edmund Burke. I fear the govt's immigration policy is making this error. But that's what happens when you make by policy by reading Twitter.

In the 20th C, a common critique of capitalism was that it was wasteful. In our era of AI slop & wifi fridges, this critique seems more valid, and yet it has been largely forgotten.

Just got back from seeing this. It's superb othelloonstage.com

We can't have a functioning "marketplace of ideas" if those selling crap don't go out of business.

As I wrote yesterday, "the Labour right is behaving as if its incentives are not to win the next election but to get cushy jobs outside politics after it." chrisdillow.substack.com/p/bad-incent...

It's one thing to say international law doesn't exist: where are the arrests & trials? It's another to say it shouldn't exist. And if you do, you have to say why there should be domestic law but not international law.

This. New Labour wasn't just wars & media spin. It was a serious attempt to apply an updated social democracy to new socio-economic conditions - eg NMW, tax credits, expanding HE. This govt is making no comparable efforts (maybe coz, given economic stagnation, it's harder.)

Reminds me of this classic from the genius Terry Allen: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Wsf...

Also, saying that Labour has "surrendered its right to govern" is either silly or sinister. Given the speaker, I'm going with silly.

Seeing the talk about Kemi Badenoch reminds me of an old piece of mine on why politicians are selected to be so unimpressive: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/selecting-...

There's a new Francis Spufford. This is not a drill. I repeat, there's a new Francis Spufford.

What is the true significance of Labour’s by-election loss in Gorton and Denton? I got into an argument with Tom Watson about whether Labour can assume support for the “minor party” will collapse at a general election and this is the result... williamcullernebown.substack.com/p/arguing-wi...

New substack: how bad government is in part the product of bad incentives: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/bad-incent...

In order to understand UK politics in 2026 you must realise that a plumber & plasterer doesn't represent the interests of the working class because she is left-wing but a wealthy broadcaster & former academic does represent the interests of the working class because he is right-wing. Hope this helps

**NEW POST** LLMs hallucinate, & they hallucinate WORSE on topics we don't already know/write a lot about. This creates a huge accuracy gap. This week I tested ChatGPT on Beethoven & Smyth to show how big this gap is & why it matters. It made up a LOT. leahbroad.substack.com/p/chatgpts-a...

Also, the idea that it's bourgeois to care about freedom & that the working class support irrational repression is, well....a reminder to put manure on my roses.

"The beatings will continue until morale improves".

Some good points here. But the rot is years old: in 2018 John Humphrys said of a discussion of the details of Brexit "all getting a wee bit technical and I’m sure people are fed up to the back teeth of all this talk of stuff most of us don’t clearly understand.” www.ft.com/content/fc52...

Can't get a posh job - blame the "woke" establishment. Can't get a shag - blame the "unregulated sexual economy". Lose a by-election - blame cheating. Anything else - blame immigrants. Reform really is the party of excuses for mediocre white men.

The far right are NOT libertarians; they're narcissists who want freedom only for themselves. Here's one I wrote 6 years ago: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/stealing-l...

A bit about democracy, at work and in finance open.substack.com/pub/tompowdr...

On the basis of my 45 years' experience, I can say that for me the sexual economy has always been pretty tightly regulated.

I know it's a small thing but it irritates me. Mandelson is not the younger son of a duke or marquis and so should not be called Lord Peter Mandelson. Lord Mandelson would be correct, & Peter, Lord Mandelson OK.

If you think a government can detain & deport 000s of illegal immigrants without also greatly reducing the freedoms of all citizens you are, in the jargon, a fucking idiot. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

in which I write many things which will look ironic when I am starving in the gutter begging for a few hours work tagging images for my robot overlords. backofmind.substack.com/p/finally-we...

Data from the UK, UK, Germany, and Australia predict AI will reduce their firms employment by almost 1% and raise productivity by 2%, from Yotzov, Barrero, @nickbloom.bsky.social, Bunn, Davis, Foster, Jalca, Meyer, Mizen, Navarrete, Smietanka, Thwaites, and Wang www.nber.org/papers/w34836

Swedish opposition politician compares the country’s government to… Tottenham 😆

True. But look at the axis. A 40%+ premium is still a lot. It's the trend that should concern us, not the level (tho obvs there's variation around the average).

If you're looking for minorities that don't integrate, are hostile to our values and are wrecking the country...

This is a really interesting and helpful piece about working with AI by @benansell.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/benansel...

Blogged: some similarities between policy-making and gardening. chrisdillow.substack.com/p/policy-mak...