Some of the UK’s most distinguished economists have written to the Chancellor warning that fiscal sustainability will not be achieved “without a significant further increase in public investment” to drive economic growth: www.thetimes.com/article/5acc...

One year ago, we warned that the UK needed a step change in public investment. Today in we're forced to make the same argument. The fiscal constraints are real but not inescapable—we need strategic pro-investment reforms that focus on long-term sustainability. Today's letter ➡️

That gap. 32% see immigration as one of the most important issues facing Britain — more than any other issue. Just 4% see it as something that's important in their own life — one of the lowest shares, and a fraction of the numbers for inflation or the NHS.

This week's post: Parallels between what to do about Trump and what to do about Farage mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/para... The problems with a policy of trying to flatter and appease Donald Trump: benefits small compared to the potential cost of losing the war against right wing populism.

This is good. See also @ldfreedman.bsky.social’s Substack post “Unserious President, Serious Country.”

Thank God we don’t have the cancellation of satirical comedy in this country. I can’t wait to see how they deal with the Trump visit on The Mash Report, Mock The Week and Frankie Boyle’s New World Order!

This week's post: Parallels between what to do about Trump and what to do about Farage mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/para... The problems with a policy of trying to flatter and appease Donald Trump: benefits small compared to the potential cost of losing the war against right wing populism.

I’m old enough to remember when a lot of people on social media told me that Vance’s remarks in Munich about free speech were to be taken very seriously.

think if you're broadly a centrist and were suuuuuper concerned about attacks on free speech from the left and so you decided to give the right a hearing then you need to realise you were taken for QUITE the ride (and don't really have anyone to blame but yourself)

How to stop the boats with control *and* compassion - new report by @britishfuture.bsky.social "Swift returns of asylum seekers who arrive without authorisation and controlled and capped legal routes offering refugee protection to those who qualify." www.britishfuture.org/bold-control...

By pandering to Red Wall voters Starmer is making the same mistake as the Tories in thinking he can ride two horses at once. Lab is either a progressive party or a reactionary one. There is no third way.

This is v informative. And a real indictment of the official figures.

The most heartbreakingly powerful piece I’ve ever read on Substack. Please, please read and share. And look after your family, friends, neighbours and colleagues for whom England is becoming frightening. @sturdyalex.bsky.social 👇 open.substack.com/pub/bestforb...

Y'days post: Parallels between what to do about Trump and what to do about Farage mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/para... Giving Trump a state visit not only normalises his fascism, but also the similar views of Reform and those at the recent far right demo in London.

Four people were arrested for an “unauthorised projection”. This is apparently what counts as a crime now www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

BBC R4 asks Bryan Lanza about Trump & UK maybe finding common ground on hate speech in wake of Kirk murder @ 07:12:20

🚨 We desperately need #Starmer/ other ministers to say that while we need to work with #Trump, his values are not the values of the great majority of the British people. This is the same as the need for [them] to fight back against the rising tide of domestic racism and intolerance 🚨 Bravo!!

Post no one asked for on how to compare bond yields across currencies (more) properly. on.ft.com/48fJTIf

Now say it on camera.

Support is growing for adressing the £22 billion annual taxpayer losses at the Bank of England. To do so, both BoE and HMT would need to act. On Thursday the Bank should stop active bond sales. And HMT should claw back interest rate losses via a targeted levy. www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5259508...

Not forgetting that they conducted a delusional or dishonest GE campaign. The Tories were as bad. It was never going to be possible to rebuild public services with the Brexit red lines, the fiscal rules and the tax pledges. Every time they had the opportunity to be flexible, they doubled down

Really good, concise and astute summary from @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social of the underlying pressures driving some of the government’s more bewildering actions. And a great final para.

This is an excellent piece. For all the Tories' and Reform's hysteria about Mandelson, he is less implicated with Epstein than Trump. And Trump is the reason Mandelson was made ambassador. Remember, the Tories and Reform warmly embrace Trump and his values.

New post: Parallels between what to do about Trump and what to do about Farage mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/para... If you think Starmer’s judgement was bad in appointing Mandelson, then surely you need to address the fact that his appointment was part of a strategy to deal with Donald Trump.

Important post, and a very timely one too.

The real policy issue here is left to the final sentence. There is no monetary policy rationale to pay interest on all reserves to banks. Tiering works perfectly well. Whatever the rationale for their current approach is, it's not about the need to set short-term market rates appropriately.

Proof, if proof were needed, that current climate is the result of organised, sustained disinformation. "Official figures indicate net migration is falling, yet concern among Britons is close to the highest it has been since polling began in 1974." ~AA www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Starmer as it happens hasn't made a public speech outside chamber since mid-July. Hard to think of a PM who has made so little use of the normative power of his office. Unlike eg Cameron who really did think No 10 had the capacity and obligation to attempt to frame debate on all manner of issues

I've written to Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, urging them to join me in condemning Elon Musk's dangerous remarks inciting violence yesterday. As leaders, we must stand together and make clear Musk will face serious consequences for these actions.

There is a serious failure in UK govt, politics & media to take sufficiently seriously what Musk said & meant with "fight back or die" = Violence (interethnic civil war) is inevitable so pre-emptive violence - vs migrants, minorities & political opponents - is necessary to avoid existential erasure

This is a very good short piece at @goodlawproject.bsky.social on the (mis?)application of terrorism law with Palestine Action: goodlawproject.org/martha-spurr... My piece on same issue at @prospectmagazine.co.uk www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/law/th...

Also shows the power the prime ministers office has! One statement and the narrative of BBC website completed changed. Earlier today it was far right rally turn out and more questions about Mandelson. One statement and the government has a chance to be on the front foot.

Expect more silence from the Royal Society in the face of their most notorious fellow advocating for the overthrow of the democratically elected government of a country he is neither a citizen nor a resident of (yet he is a fellow of their most prestigious learned society).

There are plenty of things governments can do to shape the information economy. Then they won’t face a situation where they either ignore this or ban it. Problem is, Starmer doesn’t even seem to be aware of this.

Was exactly same here, same facts, different numbers until…well, you know.

And keep reposting this bsky.app/profile/sjwr...

Well I foolishly promised it two months ago, so I had to write it... Behold my analysis of UK immigration policy and my attempt at coming up with some principles that could command public support. It's long (7,000) words because, well, this is complex stuff. So here's a thread... 1/n

This weeks post: Key myths on asylum, immigration and how to take on the far right mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/key-... Why empirical academic research and experience in other countries suggests it is a bad idea for social democratic parties to try and ape the populist right.

These two paragraphs, these two statements one after the other is quite something.

I’ve said the same myself. But Nick Thomas Symonds js (significantly) younger than me www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

This is how you protect your democracy. The US is a demonstration of what happens when you don't. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...

Trial of X in Belgium for refusing to remove unlawful content. In the UK, X appears to be treated as above the law, as it actively defends so much extreme & unlawful content of many kinds, with so little challenge since those responsible for the rule of law seem to be indifferent or asleep

US political violence overwhelmingly comes from the right - the side that calls for, glorifies, & literally pardons it

Amazing how those democratic lawmakers who were hunted down in their homes in the middle of the night in Minnesota weren’t a watershed moment of political violence, huh?

My fmr experience as 🇦🇺 Migration Officer aside, the killer reason why this can't be true: The German far-right is claiming the exact same about 🇩🇪. So does the French. Italian. American. Dutch. They all think their country is exceptionally attractive. Great. The best. Another myth that isn't true.

This is the thing about those "legitimate grievances" regarding immigration in the UK. They are mostly made up, and based on false beliefs.

This weeks post: Key myths on asylum, immigration and how to take on the far right mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/key-... The public thinks that the government spends more on asylum seekers than on defence, education, pensions etc. No wonder they think its a top issue.

Myth 6. “Since we had high net immigration, the economy has tanked. That’s no coincidence.” Isn't this it? To divert attention from their struggles to address economic issues which lie at the core, mainstream parties align with the grievance politics of the right. We've seen this film before.