Have I said before how much I like Andy Burnham? Great guy. Very down to earth, and very versatile. 😂

The ultimate in post-modern 'nothing means anything'. Nothing is nothing is nothing now.

Something absolutely crazy about watching a Labour Party drama play out on X, where almost no-one is watching, engagement is almost zero and everyone who is there hates their guts.

Is this three or four councillors Reform UK has lost since, er, Thursday? It's pathetic, they shouldn't even be in double figures. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Farage's mobilisation of non-voters would of course rebound on him after any time in power, because they'd not turn up again once he'd burned everything down. Another reason why the anti-Reform whiplash if they did get into office would IMHO be incredibly fierce. The Q is; what comes next?

As a historian, think we may come to see the long arc since the Global Financial Crisis as the birth of a Singapore-on-Thames with a semi-managed politics and a massively open economy. Anyone working class in the North or Midlands would be utterly crushed, but London would prosper. What an irony eh.

Again exactly the same as in the US, the only politician who can defy the non-voter myth and mobilise the unengaged turns out to be... Nigel Farage! Trump syndrome cut and paste.

Outside the Single Market, the UK economy malfunctions and faces a long, rocky road to adjust. Adjustment may not even be possible. As Thatcher, Major, Blair and Cameron well understood.

Another reason for the level of Keir Starmer hatred is his persona. This feeds into class perceptions of him as 'posh'. As I wrote while he was in Oppo, he *feels* like a disappointed careers teacher, disapproving headteacher or a social worker who writes nasty things about you on a pad. (1/2)

More thoughts from the GB elections, via Talking to Random People. Many voters really do think Keir Starmer is some sort of Far Left crazy. They blame him for 'opening the floodgates' to migrants, for 'letting all the criminals out', and standing for 'spongers'. Can't shift it.

One of the answers is the false rumours going round about Starmer himself, which pop up with enormous and depressing regularity. No idea how he's had time to do everything people say, but hey it's the Age of Lies.

More thoughts from the GB elections, via Talking to Random People. The hatred towards Starmer, and Reeves too, is just off the charts. Now you may say they're rubbish or okay, but when if ever have such ordinary workaday politicians evoked such epochal personal enmity?

More thoughts from the GB elections, via Talking to Random People. Britain is very, very divided (shock). It's almost Disraeli's Two Nations - like an axe blow across the country. Anywhere with grads and public transport is one thing; everywhere else another.

More thoughts from the GB elections, via Talking to Random People. The level of knowledge about Reform UK is nearly zero. Yes, they're against 'people coming in and taking benefits' and 'the scroungers', but beyond that... zero. Scrutiny will hurt them somewhat, if they ever get any.

In my own bailiwick of Higher Education, I would think that under Reform post-92s and perhaps all non-Russells in England would be made to teach solely 'technical' subjects, and radically downsized. That'd destroy the economies of many working-class towns and cities in the North and Midlands. (1/2)

We are going to see a great deal of this over the next few weeks and months. Even Farage doesn't really know what he's done. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

One has to get used to thinking of a potential Farage 1.0 as exactly analogous to Trump 2.0. So Trump's tariffs will be matched by RefUK junking the Brexit deal and the reset, raising trade taxes sky-high in a far more damaging way than Trump's tariffs. (1/3)

Tice and his mates know they only need to style it out for three years, ducking and diving and refusing to say anything... Then Laura K and her colleagues will all be out of a job, the BBC will be gone and Reform's ultra-rich mates can move in and buy the media. Exactly the Trump scheme.

Lots of reflections on the last few weeks. First: the sheer rage and fury in the country. Not so about policy, rather deep psychosocial changes beneath the surface. Rising expectations unmet, a glittering world of consumption out of reach, ageings generation angry with perceived helplessness. (1/2)

God. Spoilt ballots are usually a source of cross-party amusement. This is grim.

Good to see the LibDems gradually rebuilding the Kingdom of Wessex one shire at a time under King Ædward of Davey. Just Hamtunscīr, Wiltunscir and the Vale of Teste to conquer before the kingdom is reunited to fight back the Reforme hordes of Mercia and Essex

Reform UK's threat to the state - and to our way of life - is underestimated because things that bad are hard to imagine. Like austerity, Covid, the Russian invasion of Ukraine or Trump 2.0. All made far worse or caused by this heuristic of complacency.

I don’t believe that most voters are OK with this. A moral failing of the British media that these four reprobates were not made (in)famous enough to be stopped.

State structures are far more important than mere parties. They keep you safe, keep the lights on, keep the bureaucracy ticking over. People just take them for granted, which is why Faragism is in some ways a phenomenon of decadence. (1/2)

Another of the many ways Farage is a danger to our democracy is that a huge majority of Brits hate Trumpism and Brexit. What do think they'll say when they get both in concentrated, unchallenged form? That's right, they'll go berserk and the state itself will be further undermined.

Working class people will suffer by far the most under a Farage government. Their lives will be ground into the dust while they are offered a diet of bread and circuses, cruelty and stupidity. That's why Labour, and the other parties if they're worth their salt, have to stop him.

When you're facing the autocrats and their little helpers like Farage, you have a national *duty* and a serious *burden* on you to win. Even the Tories. To be good at politics and jettison anyone, anything that doesn't work. Farage is so obviously their tool he may as well wear a B&Q t-shirt. (1/2)

Based on what we've seen so far I wouldn't give Farage much chance of going above 250, 260 MPs. So he needs at least 66-76 Tories to be elected to give him even an absolute majority of one. That Tory number could be very consequential.

Ah, I understand that New Labour is all the rage again today. May I interest you in a very well-reviewed book on exactly that subject? 🤣 manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526146328/

Tories are done really. Let's go to... Sunbury and Ashford. I know this ward. Time was you weighed the Tory votes, or maybe you didn't even bother and just waved them through. Now? Single figures share. 💀

Tories in existential crisis - latest. West Surrey! 🤯

Watching Attenborough at 100 and reflecting on just how much the vast majority of Brits will absolutely hate and despise a Reform govt. It'd be contrary to their most basic values: care for each other; belief in protecting the planet and the future; collective responsibility; optimism; hope itself.

But in the end, as we've all learned now for so many years, you can't tell people, can't warn people, can't counsel people, can't broadcast at people. They have to live it themselves. They have the right to walk on the coals. It's the effect on the 73% who don't want to that will be tragic.

All I can say about the prospect of a (minority) Reform UK at Westminster is what I always say: *Make sure any savings are movable *Pay off loans first, then mortgage *Get money in your pension while you can *Think about alternative countries for your kids' uni *Become a citizen now if you're not

How about this as some headlines: *Reform went backwards on last year *Results in line with their falling poll score *They underperformed their polls in Scotland *If this had been a General, they wouldn't have won a majority even when the govt is phenomenally unpopular Bit of a different story?

Can't see the Tories clawing their way back into national contention while this remains the case.

So I said I would come back to this and test my hypothesis. In Scotland, yes, Reform is looking at ~16% on the constituency vote. Their polls said ~18%. Correct. In Wales, no, polls put them on c.28% and they got c.29%. So this one was wrong and only gets about a C, for the Scottish call. (1/2)

Not over yet, but 'Reform UK' got whacked in Scotland. *Sad trombone noise*. 🤡

Big questions about the status of the Conservatives as a major all-GB party after all this. They are in big trouble.

Fairly clear now that Plaid have won by uniting the left bloc. Its what we saw in Caerphilly.

This is crazed. The Tories are being absolutely mashed.

As regular readers will know, Wales out of all parts of the UK worries me by far the most. Almost every indicator looks bad. Good luck to Plaid, no idea how Wales gets out of the massive hole it's in. ☹️🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

There's a big risk of turquoise mirage in the results we've got from across the whole of GB. Media: 'Reform triumph'. Reality: good for them so far, but not stellar.

With the first two Scottish results in, so far I'm not particularly impressed by Reform's performance. But things may well look different in Wales, and there's a long, long way to go.

Got about a third of the English local authority results and none of the Scottish or Welsh devolved administration results so far. Lots of post-match commentaries being written about 20 minutes into the game.

BBC bigging up Reform UK and saying congrats to them and stuff! With not even a third of the councils in and a lot of debate still on where we're to land! Quality of coverage very poor and runs on rails: 'Reform triumph' was decided on weeks ago. Pitiful.

Correct. 👇

Yeah, why don't you communicate on an institutionally racist platform for extremists where engagement has collapsed. And which is specifically designed to make you hated and bring you down. Superb stuff.

Just half an hour or so until Labour (and the Tories) get the mother and father of all electoral pastings. I guess we are where we are.

What, *that* Steve Hilton? Hahahahahaha. You can be anyone now in politics, with any record. Nothing matters.