Geoff Hoon.

If you want a break from the Starmerdramrama, me in @thehousemag.bsky.social on how a good night's sleep can get you to the polls.... Also featuring cheap gags about Geoff Hoon and Bill Clinton. www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

This is about as unfunny as how I, every time I see an American U-Haul moving truck, say to myself (or my long-suffering wife) "U-Haul if you want to, the lady's not for hauling!"

he's running

Margaret Thatcher made the mistake of seeing ministers individually in 1990...

If you want a break from the Starmerdramrama, me in @thehousemag.bsky.social on how a good night's sleep can get you to the polls.... Also featuring cheap gags about Geoff Hoon and Bill Clinton. www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

In Limehouse. Chances of there being a Keir Starmer pub in Holborn in the year 2100?

Many of us were socialised politically in different times.

Said it in 2023, saying it again now

Let nobody say there isn't a plan in place

In February 2022, not many people would have predicted that in May 2026 Zelensky would be waiting to meet his sixth UK Prime Minister.

It’s coming, I just know it. Is this the day an MP says something crushingly stupid about not being bossed around by the bond market?

This could be the moment my campaign to abolish the King's speech has been waiting for...

'Can the assisted dying bill be brought back? It’s possible – but supporters face four challenges' New piece by me for @uk.theconversation.com on the assisted dying bill in the new parliamentary session (starts Weds) - including use of the Parliament Acts. theconversation.com/can-the-assi...

stalking horse

We have a new version of this paper out. The headline results are the same—political science must filter results heavily for statistical significance—but we've added many extensions and rewritten much of it in response to feedback (thank you!). A quick thread on updates 👇

Starmer has lost Catherine West, but results are still being counted in Catherine East and Catherine Central

If the first rule in politics is learn to count, the second is read the rules.

I spent way too long this weekend correlating 81 census variables with local election results, so you don't have to. Enjoy! datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QQQ3D/7/

There are lots of questions I want to ask Reform people, mostly starting "about that five million quid", but it would be a shame to let this moment from Robert Jenrick slip past unnoticed. thecritic.co.uk/toda...

It’s also the attrition rate of the current Hantavirus 🤔

**Begins singing Nearer my God to Thee**

Labour have lost 57% of the council seats defended. That's an attrition rate greater than suffered by John Major's MPs in 1997 - the famous asteroid destroying all life on earth - and is in fact equivalent to what happened to the Magnificent Seven (3 survived). www.politicshome.com/thehouse/art...

Reform performance in Scotland won't be the main focus of attention but is nonetheless remarkable - Scots never warmed to UKIP but they seem much keener on Farage's newer party, which has run several strong second in constituency vote (nearly winning one) - they'll pick up a lot of list seats

I think the evidence for this from today's results is thin - Reform's county administrations in Lancashire and Staffordshire have run into trouble, but Reform nevertheless made sweeping gains in yesterday's district elections in those two counties Kent - their biggest binfire - has yet to be tested

For those interested in understanding the outcomes of the local and devolved elections. I will be hosting a webinar on 𝟏𝟏 𝐌𝐚𝐲 at 𝟏𝟐:𝟎𝟎 𝐏𝐌 𝐁𝐒𝐓, with the excellent @philipjcowley.bsky.social of @qmul.bsky.social We will explore questions such as: 1/2

And follow @eoghanly.bsky.social

Countdown begins to the Great Imponderables. What will happen in Southwark, Lambeth, Greenwich, Camden, Islington, Haringey, Newham, Lewisham, Waltham Forest? These will be the big tests of theory that Labour might not do quite as badly in the capital as some have expected. Plus Lab-Tory Barnet.

it was the best of elections, it was the worst of elections

Turnout looks to be up sharply this year, not clear who this benefits most but perhaps one benefit of more fragmentation and more choice is more voters get to back the parties they like best, and in more places the outcome is genuinely uncertain.

Election night coverage suffers from not realising that it is by definition for a hard core and instead seems to be convinced that there's someone sitting there with a broken remote, desperately wishing there was anything else to watch but election coverage in the small hours of the morning.

Multi-party politics, innit

My 1am grumble on election coverage is the lack of understanding- or lack of effective explanation- of the actual counting process. Most viewers won’t know about verification, box counts, bundling and split vote tallying. But if they’re geeky enough to be watching, they deserve the nerdy details. 🤓

Don't! Some of us are about to start a 7 hour shift on Radio 4...

My one prediction in this election is that one of the Conservatives or Labour are going to have a line about why these elections have gone well that involves the words 'Westminster council', and it is really going to annoy me.

This was written for the 2024 election, but it can be easily adapted for tonight: www.politicshome.com/thehouse/art...

Substack version of the explainer for the BBC Projected National Share (PNS) of the local election vote, with John Curtice and @patrick-pme.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/election...

I know we all know that the police could, in fact, track down mobile phones if they thought it was worth their time, but it is nonetheless galling to have it confirmed.

Me, blathering on a bit earlier today, if you like that sort of thing. www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWcv...

If you want to watch them like a pro then don’t call them midterms

I'm staying away from people who've been on a cruise recently. Not worried about hantavirus I just don't want to hear about the cruise.

Sat in an archive, reading an unpublished MPs reminiscences from the early 20th century...

It's like the complete indifference to people jumping tube barriers - right next to signs warning that if you used your phone to pay and it runs out of battery, tough, they'll fine you anyway. People trying to do the right thing get penalised, while others who just ignore rules/norms with impunity

Remember...

Have Urgent Questions increased during this session of parliament? Yes, given it was a two-year session, and at least one UQ occurred on 132 of the 280 sitting days. But not to an unusual extent compared to other sessions since Speaker Bercow revived UQs in the 2010-15 Parliament. Short 🧵 1/

Will always remember the late David Denver telling me about the high propensity of Liberal/NF voters in the 1970s.

The Fulbright reference software showing some confusion over British "regions".