Great run down of today’s labour market stats by Joe 👇

The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy

NEW: Today I co-published a report with think tanks from across the political spectrum. We disagree on many issues, but share common ground on the basics of UK tax reform. Our tax system is riddled with loopholes and irrationalities, holding back growth. This means that..(1/3)

Which jobs are most at risk from AI and how can we future-proof work? @carsjung.bsky.social joined @channel4news.bsky.social Dispatches to explore the trends. Watch in full at www.channel4.com/programmes/will-ai-take-my-job-dispatches

At Labour Conference today, I think it was the right call for the Chancellor to clearly signal adherence to her fiscal rules. With borrowing costs and interest payments at very high levels, it's important that she signals to markets she's sticking to her fiscal plans.

'How can we fund public services?' with @IPPR 🕘9am, Tuesday 📍Museum of Liverpool 👉 @dantomlinson.bsky.social 👉 @yuanfenyang.bsky.social 👉 @andy-summers.bsky.social 👉 @guardianheather.bsky.social 👉 Chair: @carsjung.bsky.social

The Bank of England was right to ease up on quantitative tightening — it had been adding needless pressure to gilt yields amid global strains. In fact, it should go further and halt gilt sales altogether says @carsjung.bsky.social.

Great piece by @ChrisGiles_ arguing why it would be wise for the BoE to stop active QT sales, especially on the longer end. We called for a complete stop of active sales, combined with tackling APF interest losses. All eyes on the MPC decision tomorrow. www.ft.com/content/544e...

Support is growing for adressing the £22 billion annual taxpayer losses at the Bank of England. To do so, both BoE and HMT would need to act. On Thursday the Bank should stop active bond sales. And HMT should claw back interest rate losses via a targeted levy. www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5259508...

Some very good proposals by @danneidle.bsky.social in here, including capital gains tax reform - it could raise money while boosting investment and growth. It would also be fairer- the current system helps many avoid income tax. www.ft.com/content/59f1...

Very pleased to see my analysis on UK productivity growth picked up by the FT this morning. Their piece highlights the uncertainty around the OBR’s productivity forecast — and how stark the fiscal implications could be at the Budget. A few of my reflections below 👇

Is it just me or is the FT economics coverage becoming ever more clickbaity?

Thank god for some sense here by @chrisgiles.ft.com, on a day of much poor analysis. No, the UK’s finances are not unsustainable. And no, investors don’t price in higher UK inflation in 30 years (!) time. Key point is lower pension fund demand for 30 year gilts. www.ft.com/content/bd3d...

The Bank of England is making record losses. The Treasury is paying for these losses, and the sums involved are staggering: Bank of England losses will cost the taxpayer £22 billion a year in every year of this parliament. 📻 @carsjung.bsky.social on @lbc.co.uk 👇

Really wild that UK bank shares are down by 3-4% this morning, apparently in response to my new report! Worth keeping in mind that share prices were up 60-140% since interest rates increased. To some degree thanks to the taxpayer subsidy, which we're proposing the government should reverse.

NEW: UK taxpayers are losing £22 billion every year from losses at the Bank of England - the same as the entire Home Office annual budget. This is the result of a flawed implementation of the BoE's quantitative easing programme. We propose two steps to fix this leak. (1/4)

Another story about a very rich man determined to strip London's cultural assets. And another story that highlights the job that the London Evening Standard *hasn't* been doing: reporting on London.

Inflation reading today underlines continued cost pressures on household bills and food. Time to think creatively about what policies can lower bills direclty - this would also help lower inflation persistence and thus lower (slightly) the yield curve!

I used to take it for granted that the OBR will downgrade its productivity forecast in the autumn, leading to a chunky fiscal contraction. But the talented @willellisecon.bsky.social looked into the data and convinced me otherwise. Evidence base is really not as clear cut as some suggest. 👇

Extremely excited to introduce our new lead on macroeconomics @ippr.org - the talented @willellisecon.bsky.social. Do follow him for data driven analysis on all things macro, fiscal and monetary policy!

0.3% in Q2 is pretty solid compared with other major rich countries, lagging behind only the US (although the UK was the fastest growth G7 country in Q1). Higher trade uncertainty (read: Trump tariffs) have affected all these countries (more below).

The subsectoral details are all really positive, actually, and align with recent policy efforts. High value manufacturing, infrastructure construction, IT and healthcare all up.

NIESR today published the background paper behind its big fiscal downgrade. It's a bit odd. The anticipated culprit - productivity - seems to *not* be driving it, but rather unexplained GDP growth modelling. All rather unsatisfying, given how much attention the release got.

Makes the big number by NIESR yesterday seem a bit awkward in comparison. Apparently they release the paper with the explanation tomorrow (a few days after their >£50 bn press release).. curious to see what’s behind it..

It's actually quite mad how poorly taxed gambling is. Great proposal by IPPR colleagues on how to fix this, and how the proceeds could be used to tackle child poverty.

Quite a big deal that the BoE has revised productivity up. --> Risks have diminished as new analysis shows "potential productivity is now more explicable by [past] shocks", and Bank staff judge "some of the weakness in the headline data has been overstated". Lowers pressure on the OBR to downgrade.

🚨 | NEW PAPER: Community spaces are vanishing, and with them, the ties that bind us. A year on from the Southport riots, we explore how the loss of pubs, parks and youth clubs is weakening social connection, and how to rebuild it 👉 ippr.org/articles/places-to-come-together

'Wealth exodus'-gate continues. A cautionary tale for many (renowned) media outlets to next time be more critical of the numbers they cite. And to be more responsive to when anomalies are uncovered.

FT getting a bit ahead of itself here - slightly puzzled by this story. Release they’re referring to is pre budget as far as I can see, and the actual data will only come out with some delay. Time for a bit less tax sensationalism. (1/2)

Interesting thread on unemployment vs employment stats, by @ashwin-kumar.bsky.social

Today's inflation figures came in higher than expected (3.6%), driven by transport costs. Driver is motor fuel (petrol & diesel) prices falling slower than expected. => Fossil fuel energy prices still causing inflation volatility. It's another reason to accelerate transition to electric vehicles.

Another example where a dodgy number got uncritically cited and re-cited across media and policy discussions. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

The Bank of England is being overly restrictive by not cutting interest rates, and it is harming ordinary people, says @carsjung.bsky.social. But the gov should also do more to reduce the cost of living for households right now, especially by intervening on energy bills.

Excited to be hiring a Senior AI Research Fellow @ippr.org . With AI progressing rapidly, the economic and social impacts could be huge – from job disruption to misinformation. We design bold, sector-specific policies to ensure AI delivers public value. www.ippr.org/jobs/senior-...

The UK govt softened tax reforms on the superrich because of a widely reported “exodus” of millionaires fleeing the UK. Our new study w/ @patmillsuk.bsky.social & @taxjusticeuk.bsky.social shows that the "exodus" was a complete fiction. #BogusExodus #TaxTheSuperRich taxjustice.net/press/millio...

Interesting potential economic impact of AI agents - online platforms as we know them might be disrupted! HT @jackclarksf.bsky.social)

Feels like this FT article on UK tax is a bit too vibes-based. UK taxes are unremarkable in European context. Our tax wedge is in the lower third of OECD countries. Our 24% higher CGT rate is lower than many European countries. Where the UK does stand out is the cost of housing and childcare.

Why even bother with long-run economic change & industrial policy if you don't get the chance to see it through? Biden went all in on economic change, giving other progressives confidence to back things like industrial policy. But after the Democrats loss many are questioning whether it's worth it?

I'm incredibly excited to be taking over as IPPR's associate director for economic policy and AI. Looking forward to working with such a brilliant team at a crucial time for UK economic policy making. Huge congrats to George for his secondment, leading on a key industrial policy area, at DESNZ!

"When leaders don’t appear to have new ideas, they reach back for old ones or imitate their opponents. That will not work at a moment of great change & challenge" A new report by think tank @ippr.bsky.social warns that progressive parties like Labour need a "project" to combat populists like Reform

Interesting piece estimating fiscal costs of QT alone could sum to £19bn. Messy entanglement of monetary and fiscal policy. Neither in the interest of the Bank nor HMT for this to be the case. www.ft.com/content/0d0f...

New piece by @rachaelhenry.bsky.social & I for the IPPR blog. The industrial strategy just got harder lets be honest. Tariffs, economic downturn are threatening existing industries at a time govt is trying to reshape or build new ones. They're being pulled in two directions.

If the government followed Tony Blair’s proposals, the cost to the taxpayer would be far higher than if the government stays true to its current Net Zero plan, writes @samalvis.bsky.social, www.prospectmagazine...

Today's Bank of England assessment offers a sobering picture of the challenges facing the UK economy. Cutting interest rates was vital—but a 0.25 point cut isn’t enough. 🗣️ @carsjung.bsky.social responds to the Bank of England 👇

"We will need to decide what role we want this new type of intelligence to play in society and put in place policies to deliver this. At the moment policy is not keeping pace." - @carsjung.bsky.social, head of macroeconomics and AI at IPPR on AI in the workplace. www.newsweek.com/jobs-safe-ar...

NEW 🚨 An @ippr.bsky.social report from our Research Consultant Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan and @carsjung.bsky.social finds that, without intervention, the current pipeline of AI innovation - guided by Government's AI Opportunities Action Plan - lacks clear direction towards social objectives.

NEW: The government has said it wants to ‘shape the AI revolution’. But our new report finds that much of UK AI innovation is generic and not focussed on solving hard problems. Our detailed AI database shows only one in seven companies focus on solving a specific problem. (1/5)

A few more days to apply for this exciting senior economist role at IPPR. In these turbulent times, a lot of big macroeconomic questions need answering!

AI has advanced so much that people are no longer able to distinguish it from humans in chat conversations. We will need to decide what role we want this new type of intelligence to play in society (eg on social media or for young people). Current policy is not keeping up.

AI is going to profoundly change both our economy and civil society. Progressives should be on the front foot in shaping this. Looking forward to discussing it on Thursday with Rachel and Eleanor. Come join us!