The macro case for untargeted energy subsidies 👇 bsky.app/profile/cars...

Capping prices in a supply shock? Wouldn't this just pretend that we have as much oil and gas available as before Iran? Price caps can work in supply shocks when they're designed well 🧵1/9

NEW: faced with the ongoing Iran war energy shock, temporarily capping energy costs can be the optimal macro management tool. We did some in depth modelling, showing how this can lower inflation and interest rates, protect growth and be fiscally neutral. (1/5)

Yeah, this is borderline negligence. It's *locking in the highest rates in decades for no reason*.

The Renters Rights Act comes into force today! It's great news and a 1st step towards rebalancing power between tenants and landlords It's impacts fall into 4 main categories: 🔎 Finding a home ✅ Quality of homes 💰 Rents ❌ Ending tenancies 1/🧵

Bank of England here closely mirrors our internal modelling. We looked at various likely reaction functions - and in most of them rates are higher and lower growth. BoE unlikely to “look through” inflation. That’s why we argue universal energy price caps should play a role. More on this next week.

In my experience, AI model improvements were about as fast as - and in some cases even more impressive - than what some of the labs predicted. All of us interested in a good public policy response should sure take this with a pinch of salt. But we really shouldn’t dismiss it.

The all important question on how the Bank will react to a supply shock this time. This is one crucial aspect to decide whether universal & temporary energy price caps can be the right tool to manage this shock.

The @bankofengland.bsky.social 's downside scenario is eerily close to where oil markets currently are.

It’s becoming harder to ignore the growing weight that extremely wealthy donors appear to carry in British politics, not just in scale, but in proximity to key political decisions.

Liz Kendall is right that our dependence on a handful of US tech companies is a national security risk. Three US tech companies control 80% of UK cloud infrastructure, we don’t have a single frontier AI company in the UK, and AI firms are increasingly deciding who gets access to their models. 🧵

Good chart on elevated youth unemployment. Suggests AI impacts could be playing a role.

One more reason why obsessing about headroom against a highly volatile (and revision-prone) numbers is a not an ideal fiscal framework. Big IPPR report on an alternative approach coming out soon. www.ft.com/content/c6f2...

Latest @ippr.org Progressive Review is out, focused on the "abundance agenda" - including @christabelcoops.bsky.social & @katealexandershaw.bsky.social on the politics of growth, and satisfyingly blunt realism from @gilesyb.bsky.social & @colmpm.bsky.social onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/25732331...

"what politicians need is not to escape, joyfully, the mental prison of the non-growing pie, but to acknowledge the bargains, trade-offs, foregone pleasures .... intrinsic to growing it again" onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.... me in this collection on Abundance edited by @carsjung.bsky.social

Here the link to all essays on “Abundance”: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/25732331...

NEW: Should progressives in the UK adopt an 'Abundance' agenda? Is this 'the new third way'? What would such policies actually look like in practice? Lots of thought-provoking essays on these questions in IPPR's latest Progressive Review. Check it out here👇 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

Incredible. Somebody should turn this into a play!

CPI held steady at 3% in February — as lower motor fuel costs were offset by higher core goods prices. But today's figures are a snapshot of the world before Trump's conflict in the Middle East. The real story is what's coming next. 🧵

🌎️ | NEW REPORT: The net zero "backlash" is a myth. Voters still back climate action, but politics and media are telling a different story. Our new analysis with Persuasion UK explains why and how we fix it 👉 www.ippr.org/articles/apa...

Great to see the UK ditch plans to give AI companies a free-for-all on how they use creators' data. But as government continues to sit on the fence, we are missing opportunities to shape a licensing market that is already emerging by supporting collective bargaining for creatives 1/2

1/ Said this in our transport report, and good to see it in Reeves’ Mais Lecture. Plans for fiscal devolution, including a share of income tax, are overdue. It stifles growth that mayors take on the risk to deliver projects, while central government captures the upside through rising tax receipts.

Good speech by Rachel Reeves today with her clearest articulation yet of the government's growth agenda. She's right to be focussing on boosting succesful economic clusters. While also lifting employment rights, competition and devolution to make sure benefits are shared. (1/4)

Loved Habermas’ unwavering commitment to understanding people with different views & values. Arguing that if we earnestly debate deep differences we will come out better on the other side. Forever changed how I understand the word “deliberative”. RIP www.thetimes.com/uk/obituarie...

Great piece today by @samfr.bsky.social today on how progressives need to ‘pick fights’ to cut through in today’s attention economy. Our recent piece on “a war on bills” shows what this could look like for the cost of living. www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...

The BBC is facing a series of lose-lose choices. Partner with Big Tech and risk compromising what makes it unique. Or resist and fail to reach the audiences it exists to serve. @sofiahewson.bsky.social and I consider how Charter Renewal can help change this. 1/5

If price shocks are temporary, there is a strong case for fiscal policy to ease their impact. As Isabella’s work shows: this can avoid second round effects which can be costlier than the price of the intervention.

If geopolitics triggers another energy price shock, relying on interest rates alone to bring down inflation could leave the economy “too cold for too long”. @theguardian.com's @guardianheather.bsky.social cites @josephevans.bsky.social & @carsjung.bsky.social 👇 www.theguardian.com/business/202...

New forecast: Over the next 4 years, the Treasury will be transferring £18 billion per year to reimburse the Bank of England for its losses from QE. Down slightly but still huge. Neither the ECB nor the Fed do this. Undoing this could free up £5bn per year for the rest of this parliament.

If we get a sustained energy price shock, the government should learn the lessons from the past and act early, to put a lid on inflation. See below 4 policy areas to start 👇

Good news for wages: OBR expects economic growth to be driven relatively more by productivity increases & investment, and less reliant on low wage labour.

Obviously it's very early days, but will be key to use fiscal tools as much as possible to avoid (temporary) inflation shocks from global energy, if possible. We've seen elsewhere that this can pay off if the shocks are temporary.

UK - heading for another energy induced CoL shock? Maybe but not huge 🤞 1) It's at the moment an oil price issue not yet gas. We'll pay more at the pump. ~2/3 of UK oil comes from US/Norway, more expensive but not threatened. 2) Gas prices don't really track oil. 40% of UK gas is imported...

allllll together now: BAN THE PERVERT GLASSES

NEW: The policies of today will shape AI tools of the future. Let's make sure it improves - not destroys - our news environment. 👇

AI is transforming our information environment - but is it reliably delivering news content to the public? We tested four AI tools to find out and our results reveal worrying trends:

New report: AI is certain to transform the way we consume news. If we do nothing it could turn it into slop. We need policy action now, to ensure AI improves news & the public sphere. Guardian coverage: www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

Really excited to see the government announcing a cap on ground rents. As recommended in @samalvis.bsky.social and my "war on bills" piece. As we argue, the government should leave no stone on unturned to lower the cost of living in ways that people can feel. www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...

The Bank of England must pull its weight, and be more open about the impact of its active QT on yields. www.ft.com/content/4137...

This piece is billed as ‘father of girls thinks misogyny lessons are unnecessary’ but right at the end he actually asks the girls he is confidently speaking on behalf of and they…disagree. Amazing. www.thetimes.com/life-style/p...

All you need to know about today’s Bank of England decision and the road ahead 👇

Good news - CPI inflation drops to 3.2% in Nov. We’ve hit the level the Bank of England didn’t expect until March 2026, putting us four months ahead of their schedule. Prices are actually falling month-on-month (-0.2%), led by visible items: 🍔 Food -0.2% 🍺 Alcohol -0.4%.

For rigorous analysis of the UK macro economy, great charts, and policy options for progressive change - follow my brilliant colleague @willellisecon.bsky.social 👇

Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵

Slightly surprised the @economist.com joins the cakeists here - arguing for *both* fewer tax increases and much bigger headroom at this autumn budget. Agree with other bits of the article though - eg call for more pro-growth tax reform. www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Really great to see the government taking action on the excessive cost of infant formula. As we recommended in our piece calling for a 'war on bills'! www.gov.uk/government/n... www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...

Many newspapers and politicians have been calling yesterday's fiscal statement a 'Budget for Benefits Street'. Here's three reasons why that is not accurate 🧵

No, welfare spending is not 'out of control'. (There is an underlying rise in health-related benfits, but this needs sensible reform - not knee jerk cuts.)

Today’s Budget fired the starting gun on a fairer tax system and improving living standards – with several measures we have called for now taken up. There’s more to do, but this is a significant step forward. Here are the IPPR policies that were adopted 🧵

ENERGY BILLS! Paying for the renewables obligation brings the UK in line with other countries. Early investments in renewables were innovation spending, strange and unfair to get consumers to pay for that.