Incredible. Somebody should turn this into a play!

CPI held steady at 3% in February — as lower motor fuel costs were offset by higher core goods prices. But today's figures are a snapshot of the world before Trump's conflict in the Middle East. The real story is what's coming next. 🧵

🌎️ | NEW REPORT: The net zero "backlash" is a myth. Voters still back climate action, but politics and media are telling a different story. Our new analysis with Persuasion UK explains why and how we fix it 👉 www.ippr.org/articles/apa...

Great to see the UK ditch plans to give AI companies a free-for-all on how they use creators' data. But as government continues to sit on the fence, we are missing opportunities to shape a licensing market that is already emerging by supporting collective bargaining for creatives 1/2

1/ Said this in our transport report, and good to see it in Reeves’ Mais Lecture. Plans for fiscal devolution, including a share of income tax, are overdue. It stifles growth that mayors take on the risk to deliver projects, while central government captures the upside through rising tax receipts.

Good speech by Rachel Reeves today with her clearest articulation yet of the government's growth agenda. She's right to be focussing on boosting succesful economic clusters. While also lifting employment rights, competition and devolution to make sure benefits are shared. (1/4)

Loved Habermas’ unwavering commitment to understanding people with different views & values. Arguing that if we earnestly debate deep differences we will come out better on the other side. Forever changed how I understand the word “deliberative”. RIP www.thetimes.com/uk/obituarie...

Great piece today by @samfr.bsky.social today on how progressives need to ‘pick fights’ to cut through in today’s attention economy. Our recent piece on “a war on bills” shows what this could look like for the cost of living. www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...

The BBC is facing a series of lose-lose choices. Partner with Big Tech and risk compromising what makes it unique. Or resist and fail to reach the audiences it exists to serve. @sofiahewson.bsky.social and I consider how Charter Renewal can help change this. 1/5

If price shocks are temporary, there is a strong case for fiscal policy to ease their impact. As Isabella’s work shows: this can avoid second round effects which can be costlier than the price of the intervention.

If geopolitics triggers another energy price shock, relying on interest rates alone to bring down inflation could leave the economy “too cold for too long”. @theguardian.com's @guardianheather.bsky.social cites @josephevans.bsky.social & @carsjung.bsky.social 👇 www.theguardian.com/business/202...

New forecast: Over the next 4 years, the Treasury will be transferring £18 billion per year to reimburse the Bank of England for its losses from QE. Down slightly but still huge. Neither the ECB nor the Fed do this. Undoing this could free up £5bn per year for the rest of this parliament.

If we get a sustained energy price shock, the government should learn the lessons from the past and act early, to put a lid on inflation. See below 4 policy areas to start 👇

Good news for wages: OBR expects economic growth to be driven relatively more by productivity increases & investment, and less reliant on low wage labour.

Obviously it's very early days, but will be key to use fiscal tools as much as possible to avoid (temporary) inflation shocks from global energy, if possible. We've seen elsewhere that this can pay off if the shocks are temporary.

UK - heading for another energy induced CoL shock? Maybe but not huge 🤞 1) It's at the moment an oil price issue not yet gas. We'll pay more at the pump. ~2/3 of UK oil comes from US/Norway, more expensive but not threatened. 2) Gas prices don't really track oil. 40% of UK gas is imported...

allllll together now: BAN THE PERVERT GLASSES

NEW: The policies of today will shape AI tools of the future. Let's make sure it improves - not destroys - our news environment. 👇

AI is transforming our information environment - but is it reliably delivering news content to the public? We tested four AI tools to find out and our results reveal worrying trends:

New report: AI is certain to transform the way we consume news. If we do nothing it could turn it into slop. We need policy action now, to ensure AI improves news & the public sphere. Guardian coverage: www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

Really excited to see the government announcing a cap on ground rents. As recommended in @samalvis.bsky.social and my "war on bills" piece. As we argue, the government should leave no stone on unturned to lower the cost of living in ways that people can feel. www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...

The Bank of England must pull its weight, and be more open about the impact of its active QT on yields. www.ft.com/content/4137...

This piece is billed as ‘father of girls thinks misogyny lessons are unnecessary’ but right at the end he actually asks the girls he is confidently speaking on behalf of and they…disagree. Amazing. www.thetimes.com/life-style/p...

All you need to know about today’s Bank of England decision and the road ahead 👇

Good news - CPI inflation drops to 3.2% in Nov. We’ve hit the level the Bank of England didn’t expect until March 2026, putting us four months ahead of their schedule. Prices are actually falling month-on-month (-0.2%), led by visible items: 🍔 Food -0.2% 🍺 Alcohol -0.4%.

For rigorous analysis of the UK macro economy, great charts, and policy options for progressive change - follow my brilliant colleague @willellisecon.bsky.social 👇

Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵

Slightly surprised the @economist.com joins the cakeists here - arguing for *both* fewer tax increases and much bigger headroom at this autumn budget. Agree with other bits of the article though - eg call for more pro-growth tax reform. www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Really great to see the government taking action on the excessive cost of infant formula. As we recommended in our piece calling for a 'war on bills'! www.gov.uk/government/n... www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...

Many newspapers and politicians have been calling yesterday's fiscal statement a 'Budget for Benefits Street'. Here's three reasons why that is not accurate 🧵

No, welfare spending is not 'out of control'. (There is an underlying rise in health-related benfits, but this needs sensible reform - not knee jerk cuts.)

Today’s Budget fired the starting gun on a fairer tax system and improving living standards – with several measures we have called for now taken up. There’s more to do, but this is a significant step forward. Here are the IPPR policies that were adopted 🧵

ENERGY BILLS! Paying for the renewables obligation brings the UK in line with other countries. Early investments in renewables were innovation spending, strange and unfair to get consumers to pay for that.

The 2 child limit, which drives child poverty and prevents kids from having the same opportunities as their peers, is gone. No small feat given the shrieks from some on the right - but will make a bold difference to the life chances of so many children. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy...

It's a big deal that the Chancellor is moving to address the unfair tax advantages of those earning income from wealth. It's irrational and unfair to tax dividends, savings and rental income less than income of working people.

Worth noting that this budget confirms, borrowing will *more than half* over the course of this parliament. Should appease financial market worries that UK is not sticking to its fiscal plans. Should help reduce the UK borrowing cost premium.

Fantastic news that @RachelReevesMP has more than doubled fiscal headroom - a core recommendations of @IPPR . This will bring stability against shocks and hugely reduce market uncertainty.

This Budget will show who the government is really for – and who it’s against. Our three tests: 1️⃣ Is it fair, asking more of those with the broadest shoulders? 2️⃣ Does it cut the cost of living? 3️⃣ Is it pro-growth and reassuring to markets? 📺 @carsjung.bsky.social on @gbnewsonline.bsky.social 👇

💼 Tomorrow’s Budget is a big test. Here are the five steps Rachel Reeves should take - via @rachaelhenry.bsky.social

Lots of performative doom about the UK economy going on. Here a useful reality check fromthe @economist.com. Cheer up a bit everybody! Eg this year "the FTSE has returned 23% against the S&P’s 12%". www.economist.com/finance-and-...

NEW EPISODE: Is the AI bubble about to burst? Is the dotcom crash a vision of our future? Has the AI hype outpaced profits? And if the bubble bursts, what does it mean for the rest of us? Ayeisha is joined by Eleanor Shearer from @cmmonwealth.bsky.social and @carsjung.bsky.social from @ippr.org 1/

Good piece by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com highlighting that the income tax (IT) system is already fairly progressive. That’s why at @ippr.org we highlighted fixing unfairnesses & loopholes in other taxes, smoothing high marginal rates & broader IT increases if any. on.ft.com/3JKrUjG

NEW: next week's budget, with an OBR downgrade & tax rises all but certain, could be very tricky. But it can actually be a positive milestone. If the Chancellor fixes big unfairnesses & irrationalities in the tax system, it can be popular and pro growth. 👇 www.ippr.org/articles/fai...

I would say the nature of the Smorgesbord really matters. There are a lot of 'narrow' policies that could make the system significantly better. See here our piece with think tanks from across the political spectrum, with a Smorgasbord of pro growth tax reforms: centax.org.uk/wp-content/u...

NEW: The high cost of living is on the forefront of the public's mind. The government should launch 'a war on bills' - a multi-year policy campaign to bring costs down. There are no silver bullets, but there are lots of small things that the government can do to show that it's on people side. (1/4)

Centre-left governments the world over bucked 2024's death to incumbents wave with a relentless focus on reducing the cost of living. The public needs to know government is on their side fighting for them to have any faith that long-term policies will payoff.

💷 | NEW BLOG: A war on bills should be the government’s defining campaign – showing it’s on the side of consumers and tackling the cost of living from energy to food to housing. Read the latest from us here www.ippr.org/articles/a-war-on-bills

Great run down of today’s labour market stats by Joe 👇

The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy

NEW: Today I co-published a report with think tanks from across the political spectrum. We disagree on many issues, but share common ground on the basics of UK tax reform. Our tax system is riddled with loopholes and irrationalities, holding back growth. This means that..(1/3)