The Bank of England must pull its weight, and be more open about the impact of its active QT on yields. www.ft.com/content/4137...

This piece is billed as ‘father of girls thinks misogyny lessons are unnecessary’ but right at the end he actually asks the girls he is confidently speaking on behalf of and they…disagree. Amazing. www.thetimes.com/life-style/p...

All you need to know about today’s Bank of England decision and the road ahead 👇

Good news - CPI inflation drops to 3.2% in Nov. We’ve hit the level the Bank of England didn’t expect until March 2026, putting us four months ahead of their schedule. Prices are actually falling month-on-month (-0.2%), led by visible items: 🍔 Food -0.2% 🍺 Alcohol -0.4%.

For rigorous analysis of the UK macro economy, great charts, and policy options for progressive change - follow my brilliant colleague @willellisecon.bsky.social 👇

Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵

Slightly surprised the @economist.com joins the cakeists here - arguing for *both* fewer tax increases and much bigger headroom at this autumn budget. Agree with other bits of the article though - eg call for more pro-growth tax reform. www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Really great to see the government taking action on the excessive cost of infant formula. As we recommended in our piece calling for a 'war on bills'! www.gov.uk/government/n... www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...

Many newspapers and politicians have been calling yesterday's fiscal statement a 'Budget for Benefits Street'. Here's three reasons why that is not accurate 🧵

No, welfare spending is not 'out of control'. (There is an underlying rise in health-related benfits, but this needs sensible reform - not knee jerk cuts.)

Today’s Budget fired the starting gun on a fairer tax system and improving living standards – with several measures we have called for now taken up. There’s more to do, but this is a significant step forward. Here are the IPPR policies that were adopted 🧵

ENERGY BILLS! Paying for the renewables obligation brings the UK in line with other countries. Early investments in renewables were innovation spending, strange and unfair to get consumers to pay for that.

The 2 child limit, which drives child poverty and prevents kids from having the same opportunities as their peers, is gone. No small feat given the shrieks from some on the right - but will make a bold difference to the life chances of so many children. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy...

It's a big deal that the Chancellor is moving to address the unfair tax advantages of those earning income from wealth. It's irrational and unfair to tax dividends, savings and rental income less than income of working people.

Worth noting that this budget confirms, borrowing will *more than half* over the course of this parliament. Should appease financial market worries that UK is not sticking to its fiscal plans. Should help reduce the UK borrowing cost premium.

Fantastic news that @RachelReevesMP has more than doubled fiscal headroom - a core recommendations of @IPPR . This will bring stability against shocks and hugely reduce market uncertainty.

This Budget will show who the government is really for – and who it’s against. Our three tests: 1️⃣ Is it fair, asking more of those with the broadest shoulders? 2️⃣ Does it cut the cost of living? 3️⃣ Is it pro-growth and reassuring to markets? 📺 @carsjung.bsky.social on @gbnewsonline.bsky.social 👇

💼 Tomorrow’s Budget is a big test. Here are the five steps Rachel Reeves should take - via @rachaelhenry.bsky.social

Lots of performative doom about the UK economy going on. Here a useful reality check fromthe @economist.com. Cheer up a bit everybody! Eg this year "the FTSE has returned 23% against the S&P’s 12%". www.economist.com/finance-and-...

NEW EPISODE: Is the AI bubble about to burst? Is the dotcom crash a vision of our future? Has the AI hype outpaced profits? And if the bubble bursts, what does it mean for the rest of us? Ayeisha is joined by Eleanor Shearer from @cmmonwealth.bsky.social and @carsjung.bsky.social from @ippr.org 1/

Good piece by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com highlighting that the income tax (IT) system is already fairly progressive. That’s why at @ippr.org we highlighted fixing unfairnesses & loopholes in other taxes, smoothing high marginal rates & broader IT increases if any. on.ft.com/3JKrUjG

NEW: next week's budget, with an OBR downgrade & tax rises all but certain, could be very tricky. But it can actually be a positive milestone. If the Chancellor fixes big unfairnesses & irrationalities in the tax system, it can be popular and pro growth. 👇 www.ippr.org/articles/fai...

I would say the nature of the Smorgesbord really matters. There are a lot of 'narrow' policies that could make the system significantly better. See here our piece with think tanks from across the political spectrum, with a Smorgasbord of pro growth tax reforms: centax.org.uk/wp-content/u...

NEW: The high cost of living is on the forefront of the public's mind. The government should launch 'a war on bills' - a multi-year policy campaign to bring costs down. There are no silver bullets, but there are lots of small things that the government can do to show that it's on people side. (1/4)

Centre-left governments the world over bucked 2024's death to incumbents wave with a relentless focus on reducing the cost of living. The public needs to know government is on their side fighting for them to have any faith that long-term policies will payoff.

💷 | NEW BLOG: A war on bills should be the government’s defining campaign – showing it’s on the side of consumers and tackling the cost of living from energy to food to housing. Read the latest from us here www.ippr.org/articles/a-war-on-bills

Great run down of today’s labour market stats by Joe 👇

The Bank of England held rates today. A close call—we think the Bank could have gone further and cut. Inflation should fall, the labour market is cooling, growth is sluggish, and the Budget is likely to remove demand. Some less-noticed nuggets👇#BoE #UKeconomy

NEW: Today I co-published a report with think tanks from across the political spectrum. We disagree on many issues, but share common ground on the basics of UK tax reform. Our tax system is riddled with loopholes and irrationalities, holding back growth. This means that..(1/3)

Which jobs are most at risk from AI and how can we future-proof work? @carsjung.bsky.social joined @channel4news.bsky.social Dispatches to explore the trends. Watch in full at www.channel4.com/programmes/will-ai-take-my-job-dispatches

At Labour Conference today, I think it was the right call for the Chancellor to clearly signal adherence to her fiscal rules. With borrowing costs and interest payments at very high levels, it's important that she signals to markets she's sticking to her fiscal plans.

'How can we fund public services?' with @IPPR 🕘9am, Tuesday 📍Museum of Liverpool 👉 @dantomlinson.bsky.social 👉 @yuanfenyang.bsky.social 👉 @andy-summers.bsky.social 👉 @guardianheather.bsky.social 👉 Chair: @carsjung.bsky.social

The Bank of England was right to ease up on quantitative tightening — it had been adding needless pressure to gilt yields amid global strains. In fact, it should go further and halt gilt sales altogether says @carsjung.bsky.social.

Great piece by @ChrisGiles_ arguing why it would be wise for the BoE to stop active QT sales, especially on the longer end. We called for a complete stop of active sales, combined with tackling APF interest losses. All eyes on the MPC decision tomorrow. www.ft.com/content/544e...

Support is growing for adressing the £22 billion annual taxpayer losses at the Bank of England. To do so, both BoE and HMT would need to act. On Thursday the Bank should stop active bond sales. And HMT should claw back interest rate losses via a targeted levy. www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/5259508...

Some very good proposals by @danneidle.bsky.social in here, including capital gains tax reform - it could raise money while boosting investment and growth. It would also be fairer- the current system helps many avoid income tax. www.ft.com/content/59f1...

Very pleased to see my analysis on UK productivity growth picked up by the FT this morning. Their piece highlights the uncertainty around the OBR’s productivity forecast — and how stark the fiscal implications could be at the Budget. A few of my reflections below 👇

Is it just me or is the FT economics coverage becoming ever more clickbaity?

Thank god for some sense here by @chrisgiles.ft.com, on a day of much poor analysis. No, the UK’s finances are not unsustainable. And no, investors don’t price in higher UK inflation in 30 years (!) time. Key point is lower pension fund demand for 30 year gilts. www.ft.com/content/bd3d...

The Bank of England is making record losses. The Treasury is paying for these losses, and the sums involved are staggering: Bank of England losses will cost the taxpayer £22 billion a year in every year of this parliament. 📻 @carsjung.bsky.social on @lbc.co.uk 👇

Really wild that UK bank shares are down by 3-4% this morning, apparently in response to my new report! Worth keeping in mind that share prices were up 60-140% since interest rates increased. To some degree thanks to the taxpayer subsidy, which we're proposing the government should reverse.

NEW: UK taxpayers are losing £22 billion every year from losses at the Bank of England - the same as the entire Home Office annual budget. This is the result of a flawed implementation of the BoE's quantitative easing programme. We propose two steps to fix this leak. (1/4)

Another story about a very rich man determined to strip London's cultural assets. And another story that highlights the job that the London Evening Standard *hasn't* been doing: reporting on London.

Inflation reading today underlines continued cost pressures on household bills and food. Time to think creatively about what policies can lower bills direclty - this would also help lower inflation persistence and thus lower (slightly) the yield curve!

I used to take it for granted that the OBR will downgrade its productivity forecast in the autumn, leading to a chunky fiscal contraction. But the talented @willellisecon.bsky.social looked into the data and convinced me otherwise. Evidence base is really not as clear cut as some suggest. 👇

Extremely excited to introduce our new lead on macroeconomics @ippr.org - the talented @willellisecon.bsky.social. Do follow him for data driven analysis on all things macro, fiscal and monetary policy!

0.3% in Q2 is pretty solid compared with other major rich countries, lagging behind only the US (although the UK was the fastest growth G7 country in Q1). Higher trade uncertainty (read: Trump tariffs) have affected all these countries (more below).

The subsectoral details are all really positive, actually, and align with recent policy efforts. High value manufacturing, infrastructure construction, IT and healthcare all up.

NIESR today published the background paper behind its big fiscal downgrade. It's a bit odd. The anticipated culprit - productivity - seems to *not* be driving it, but rather unexplained GDP growth modelling. All rather unsatisfying, given how much attention the release got.

Makes the big number by NIESR yesterday seem a bit awkward in comparison. Apparently they release the paper with the explanation tomorrow (a few days after their >£50 bn press release).. curious to see what’s behind it..