As rate vol has compressed, the asset swap-OAS spread gap has fallen across the IG curve. IMO fits with my suggestion that it was much less a function of default risk premia in USTs but more a function of short rate uncertainty.

The best time for the government to quit X was August 2024, when its owner fuelled far right riots, the second best time is now.

Welcome to the refi cycle

Not a bad day in Boston

The looks of the people behind her are extremely “hello darkness my old friend”

Regular reminder that the US quits rate has basically been unchanged since Aug 2024. It's as stuck as hiring and layoffs. It's a stable, low dynamism labor market.

Very tedious law talky guys (rhubarb rhubarb cab rank) who insisted there was no problem with Wolfson acting in this case might want to reflect about whether it’s remotely tenable for the SAG to be in this position, particularly right now.

sure, because the blockade throttled back upstream production. lift the blockade and that production can bounce back pretty quick that's not the same thing as the "Venezuelan oil industry recovery" that everyone is handicapping.

Can only hear this to the tune of "World in Motion" though

For those keeping count, it’s now up at 44

Another example of the fact that there are very few technically difficult questions of economics; "difficult questions" are just difficult because you don't like the obvious answer

LHR -> BOS ✈️

The most Bluesky response to the wingnut imperialism on display is something like “you can talk about the projection and exercise of power but it’s meaningless without a theory of power” but, you know, it’s also true… especially for market economies

The key underlying point here is that Europe needs to make up for some of the funding gap as well as the employment gap across disciplines. It’s a time to be expansive in scope and scale of ambition on the research side - not least because domestic capacity is a hedge against further frictions.

Been a few years since I covered it directly, but does TITIM not race to open the new year EUR HY primary market anymore?

Are we *absolutely sure* we all need to be back at work currently and not hibernating until this is all over?

I'm slightly obsessive about this so pls forgive the aggressive cross-reading, but it's not encouraging that they cannot bring themselves to cut loose on a lower stakes, but related issue (quietly remove your official comms from radio mille collines) on probably similar risk/reward considerations

Dumbest timeline

I am concerned that the radicalisation of tech owners/investors and the coincident buildout of AI that could fundamentally shift the bargaining power of workers in the sector that have enjoyed a wild 3 decades is not going to be a great mix. Not sure what the solve is or how it shakes out.

Reading (and appreciating) all the skeets on current events. For various reasons (including profound lack of subject-relevant knowledge), not entirely sure I can/should join in so mostly sitting this one out to let wiser heads add their thoughts.

Gunboat diplomacy

"We frequently see the respectful attentions of the world more strongly directed towards the rich and the great, than towards the wise and the virtuous. We see frequently the vices and follies of the powerful much less despised than the poverty and weakness of the innocent" - Adam Smith.

There is signal in the Musk/Cummings noise if you clear away the ridiculous egos - reforming the modern state via brute force is, basically, impossible. You can damage things, fire people, cut spending but the vast majority of things the state does are deeply embedded and critical functions.

Yeeeaaa boooooooi

We got Meta’s “general global playbook” for defeating advertiser verification regulations, which the company knows would reduce scams. It includes making scam ads “not findable” for regulators searching Meta’s ad library through targeted scrubbing. www.reuters.com/investigatio...

Saw in the New Year dressed as a croupier at an unlicensed budget casino (was *not* my choice of dress-code)

Overdosing on aspirin so he can continue to eat the entire McDonald’s menu for dinner is…probably something his health secretary would advocate

I’ve spent this morning morbidly watching the MTV channels close down and the final songs played were: MTV Music - Video Killed the Radio Star (Buggles) Club MTV - Don’t Stop the Music (Rihanna) MTV 90s - Goodbye (Spice Girls) MTV 80s - Together in Electric Dreams (Oakey and Moroder)

It’s been a long year, and a challenging one. Appreciate all of you who have kept me company through my (too) many flights & very late nights. Being on here has prompted me to think harder about the priors I hold, and introduced me to ideas I couldn’t have had otherwise. Not bad for an echo chamber.

Lemon, olive oil, Parmesan and basil spaghetti with a light coating of toasted breadcrumbs to serve - the antidote to a week of heavy roast dinners (+ leftovers).

Think @sundersays.bsky.social is accurate here. The UK has not suddenly become much more racist. However the (re)normalisation of open racism by "respectable" right-wing media and politicians has led to both increased visibility for open racists, & radicalisation of some "soft" racists/xenophobes

Not sure if this is an unpopular opinion but, barring the cost (admittedly a huge issue) I think London is a terrific place to bring up children. Not only do you have the amenities of a global mega city, but you have the type of green spaces that can only usually be found outside cities.

Big Love is following Je t’aime…moi non plus on the list of “songs I need to preemptively block on randomised playlists when the whole family is round” to avoid the cringe

Heaney

Just seen an advert that has convinced me never to search for anything on Zoopla again. And…I think Zoopla paid for it

I get that the UK Natl Wealth Fund has THREE objectives (generate growth & clean energy; crowd in private capital; generate a return for the taxpayer) — and also that it is still scaling up — but reporting a 14.2% loss is a very bad look: www.nationalwealthfund.org.uk/media/zygibc...

Attempting to strip someone of citizenship is always a transparent and hopeless effort to avoid responsibility for the underlying problem you claim to object to. Their citizenship is *why* they can be held accountable for the actions you object to.

Attempting to strip someone of citizenship is always a transparent and hopeless effort to avoid responsibility for the underlying problem you claim to object to. Their citizenship is *why* they can be held accountable for the actions you object to.

Hate to say it but man the Pats are looking good @smtuffy.bsky.social

Bit of festive positivity about the state of Britain here. I’ve lived and worked in four different countries, and spent time in many more. And, for all its quirks, idiosyncrasies and (yes) problems, there is nowhere else I’d rather be.

Zuccotto final boss

No *you* are regretting sticking with the manual coffee grinder you bought in lockdown because time was very much not an issue

Merry merry Christmas you excellent bunch! Wishing you all a very merry day

Ashridge lights

If there’s one face nobody should have to see around Christmas it’s Stephen Miller’s.

Shifting the Fed’s inflation target is the sort of debate that takes up an enormous amount of oxygen but actually…isn’t all that material (within the sorts of ranges being discussed). What’s important is the reaction function signal it is trying to give. Which also means not all shifts are equal.

So moving from FAIT to a Fixed Annual Range Target huh?

As the number of films increase, the probability that people come around to my disdain of Christopher Nolan approaches 1.

No *you* just spent a stupidly large amount on a selection of horse-shaped omikuji to give people on NYE

Salted caramel zuccotto in progress