If you loved that shining beacon of stability and prosperity that was the UK in 2022 you're going to love your new Reform government. Maybe time for a name change.

Two ways to look at the Free Trade Agreement with India, "the mother of all deals": - It's an absolute nothingburger at the macro level right now for Europe. - But, the potential for growth is huge given the very low starting point and India's growth prospects.

It's 2026 in America and a bunch of masked goons can literally execute you on the streets with the full support of the government. I don't think we're really capable of fully comprehend the gravity of the situation yet, it will take years to look back to be able to show how insane this was.

Looks like it's time for another State Visit!

Next up the list for Trump

Is that the same military alliance led by a guy gushing about people calling Trump their daddy?

Don't worry UK friends, it's only two more months of pure winter misery. After that it's one month of hoping to catch a glimmer of light, then the occasional glorious day in spring and boom, it's summer. Which let's face it, it's not that great but feels like heaven for us poor tortured bastards.

If you allow thugs to murder with impunity, guess what, thugs will murder with impunity.

Uno de los indicadores que muestra la salud de la economía de manera más intuitiva es la venta de coches, que crecieron un 13% en 2025. Aquí se ve claro por ejemplo, como recuperación inicial post-pandemia era en parte efecto estadístico y por impulso externo, y mucho más sólida desde 2023.

So if the US actually decided to take over Greenland with some bs pretext, what can Europe do apart from "strongly urging not to"? I mean realistically. This is the burning question no one has a clear answer to.

Ni cotiza que vamos a tener un artículo de opinión más temprano que tarde pidiendo que EEUU haga lo mismo en España que ha hecho en Venezuela.

Happy New Year to all those starting potty training a two-year old today! (admittedly a niche group)

Not sure if this is an unpopular opinion but, barring the cost (admittedly a huge issue) I think London is a terrific place to bring up children. Not only do you have the amenities of a global mega city, but you have the type of green spaces that can only usually be found outside cities.

Momentous day for all nerdy economists who have been clamouring for months that Irish distortions need to be filtered out of Eurozone aggregates 👏

The intuitive sense that the ECB maintains a hawkish bias is confirmed by the analysis of their communication. As inflation goes down, hawkishness is moderating, but I suspect the bias will remain for some time. And I think will also shape the election of Lagarde's successor.

The US is much richer than Europe, but less so when you adjust for them working more. Despite being poorer we're not converging with them. Despite being poorer we live longer and quality of life is better under some measures. There you go, job done, no need for 3000-word essays to explain this.

Relaxed attitude? Is this supposed to refer to regulations? Because it's literally the number one concern of Spaniards when asked about it.

On the surface, Eurozone growth looks pretty decent all things considered. But when looking under the hood, the picture worsens considerably: - Ireland (4% of the EZ) accounts for 40% of growth - Spain (10%) accounts for 20% - Half of the Eurozone is growing at 0.5% or below

Another data series that has become useless: Eurozone exports to the US are 11% up vs 2024, but when you remove Ireland, poof, down 3%. Why? because people love weight loss jabs enough to alter the entire trade statistics for the Eurozone.

Does it also happen in other countries that if you do something as simple and mundane as posting about strong GDP numbers, you get hordes of anonymous accounts lynching you online? No? Only in Spain? I see.

Strange time to be celebrating 10 years in the UK, probably feeling less welcome than ever. I get that migration needs to be controlled and poses huge challenges, but this kind of language is a huge slippery slope that enables people's worst instincts towards "the other" to go fully unchecked.

I really wanted to give this place a shot given how bad X has turned, but sad to say it does feel very clicky from the outside, with the same few accounts bantering with each other over and over.

Newsflash: every young person eventually becomes older and uncool. Perhaps millenials thought they were different but they´re not. Neither are Gen Z, or anyone coming after.

I was about to write "Barça has turned into a Real Madrid and I love it" but then Inter had to score, ugh

La pregunta que todos nos hacen a los economistas es ¿cuánto va a costar el apagón? 🧵 Los primeros cálculos son todos muy aproximados, pero un pequeño hilo explicando la estructura que usamos para llegar a ellos.

Posted without comment.

Wouldn't it make it sense for England's national day to be a bank holiday? I don´t know, just a thought.

I am in the North™️ and people are happily wearing shorts at 6 degrees because it's sunny and I wish I could go through life like that.

9 out of 10 times: "Excellent article by so and so on XYZ" = "article that quotes me on XYZ" 🤣

Took me ten years to finally visit Blackpool and all I can say is: wow. Shocking.

Is the German bond the ultimate safe asset now? Global correlation means German bonds and US 10YR treasuries move in the same direction more than 90% of the time. But the Bund has seen its yield fall 5 days already in the past month when yields on 10YR treasuries have risen.

A multi billion theme park here? Mmmmkay

£8.25 for a pint, bloody hell no wonder people are moving out of London.

You often hear how the US is the EU's largest trading partner, but people understimate HOW MUCH MORE EU countries trade among themselves. How much? 12 times more on avg. So for an avg European country, a 50% decline in exports to the US would be offset by a 4% rise in EU exports.

Law firms: yield to Trump. Universities: yield to Trump. Democratic senators: yield to Trump. Tech execs: yield to Trump. Future Americans: "how is it possible nobody resisted"? READ HANNAH ARENDT.

UK infrastructure could borrow a page or two from Ukraine in terms of resilience.

Para los rezagados, esta columna de The Economist define bien el mood europeo sobre las excusas y las piruetas retóricas españolas (e italianas) a no subir el gasto en defensa. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

I decided to start a #thread 🧵 of stories about legal residents and tourists being (illegally) arrested, detained and/or deported by the Trump regime. I'll only post stories from serious sources, as rumors and conspiracies are really not needed in this authoritarian moment.

Look what activist fiscal policy does to expectations.

Cue comments "London is the best place in the world when it's sunny" as we all come out of our winter PTSD.

Updated OBR migration analysis: Typical migrant only starts receiving more in benefits than they pay in tax at age 92. Lifetime contribution entirely positive. Low-age migrants have a lifetime negative fiscal impact on average. Typical UK resident's impact is neutral or slightly negative.

This is what high level geopolitics looks like in 2025: We now have Very Serious People trying to explain that no, the EU was not formed "to screw the US up".

How about an FTA between the US and Russia, just for the lols

You gotta give it to Zelenski, unlike Europe, he pivots really quickly to try to find a way forward once it's clear the US doesn't give a **** about Ukraine's interests.

Old enough to remember when "there is no private demand for peripheral sovereign debt" just because the ECB was absorbing all the issuance. Right.

Your regular reminder that the US is an incredibly closed economy, and that Europe stands to lose a lot more from direct trade impacts in a trade war.

The @Telegraph, @thetimes, @MailOnline & @TheSun publish corrections to their scaremongering on undocumented migrants in London. Imagine between them the reach & power of these papers. The fact is they are using that power to instil Trumpist hate & we are ill-equipped to resist.

A lot has been written about the outperformance of Europe's periphery, but the reduction of imbalances in the past decade has been nothing short of extraordinary. Portugal has gone from having one of the largest deficits in the world to being second best in the EZ, with Spain close behind.

If you ever needed more incentives to leave X permanently, try posting anything about Musk's "unusual" salute over there.

Flash January PMIs are out on Friday. Markets and many others treat them almost as monthly GDP. Eurozone composite PMI is expected to stay below 50, i.e. contraction. But I'm going to let you in on a little secret - the neutral threshold is not 50. It's closer to 48. 50 actually means decent growth!