Relaxed attitude? Is this supposed to refer to regulations? Because it's literally the number one concern of Spaniards when asked about it.

On the surface, Eurozone growth looks pretty decent all things considered. But when looking under the hood, the picture worsens considerably: - Ireland (4% of the EZ) accounts for 40% of growth - Spain (10%) accounts for 20% - Half of the Eurozone is growing at 0.5% or below

Another data series that has become useless: Eurozone exports to the US are 11% up vs 2024, but when you remove Ireland, poof, down 3%. Why? because people love weight loss jabs enough to alter the entire trade statistics for the Eurozone.

Does it also happen in other countries that if you do something as simple and mundane as posting about strong GDP numbers, you get hordes of anonymous accounts lynching you online? No? Only in Spain? I see.

Strange time to be celebrating 10 years in the UK, probably feeling less welcome than ever. I get that migration needs to be controlled and poses huge challenges, but this kind of language is a huge slippery slope that enables people's worst instincts towards "the other" to go fully unchecked.

I really wanted to give this place a shot given how bad X has turned, but sad to say it does feel very clicky from the outside, with the same few accounts bantering with each other over and over.

Newsflash: every young person eventually becomes older and uncool. Perhaps millenials thought they were different but they´re not. Neither are Gen Z, or anyone coming after.

I was about to write "Barça has turned into a Real Madrid and I love it" but then Inter had to score, ugh

La pregunta que todos nos hacen a los economistas es ¿cuánto va a costar el apagón? 🧵 Los primeros cálculos son todos muy aproximados, pero un pequeño hilo explicando la estructura que usamos para llegar a ellos.

Posted without comment.

Wouldn't it make it sense for England's national day to be a bank holiday? I don´t know, just a thought.

I am in the North™️ and people are happily wearing shorts at 6 degrees because it's sunny and I wish I could go through life like that.

9 out of 10 times: "Excellent article by so and so on XYZ" = "article that quotes me on XYZ" 🤣

Took me ten years to finally visit Blackpool and all I can say is: wow. Shocking.

Is the German bond the ultimate safe asset now? Global correlation means German bonds and US 10YR treasuries move in the same direction more than 90% of the time. But the Bund has seen its yield fall 5 days already in the past month when yields on 10YR treasuries have risen.

A multi billion theme park here? Mmmmkay

£8.25 for a pint, bloody hell no wonder people are moving out of London.

You often hear how the US is the EU's largest trading partner, but people understimate HOW MUCH MORE EU countries trade among themselves. How much? 12 times more on avg. So for an avg European country, a 50% decline in exports to the US would be offset by a 4% rise in EU exports.

Law firms: yield to Trump. Universities: yield to Trump. Democratic senators: yield to Trump. Tech execs: yield to Trump. Future Americans: "how is it possible nobody resisted"? READ HANNAH ARENDT.

UK infrastructure could borrow a page or two from Ukraine in terms of resilience.

Para los rezagados, esta columna de The Economist define bien el mood europeo sobre las excusas y las piruetas retóricas españolas (e italianas) a no subir el gasto en defensa. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

I decided to start a #thread 🧵 of stories about legal residents and tourists being (illegally) arrested, detained and/or deported by the Trump regime. I'll only post stories from serious sources, as rumors and conspiracies are really not needed in this authoritarian moment.

Look what activist fiscal policy does to expectations.

Cue comments "London is the best place in the world when it's sunny" as we all come out of our winter PTSD.

Updated OBR migration analysis: Typical migrant only starts receiving more in benefits than they pay in tax at age 92. Lifetime contribution entirely positive. Low-age migrants have a lifetime negative fiscal impact on average. Typical UK resident's impact is neutral or slightly negative.

This is what high level geopolitics looks like in 2025: We now have Very Serious People trying to explain that no, the EU was not formed "to screw the US up".

How about an FTA between the US and Russia, just for the lols

You gotta give it to Zelenski, unlike Europe, he pivots really quickly to try to find a way forward once it's clear the US doesn't give a **** about Ukraine's interests.

Old enough to remember when "there is no private demand for peripheral sovereign debt" just because the ECB was absorbing all the issuance. Right.

Your regular reminder that the US is an incredibly closed economy, and that Europe stands to lose a lot more from direct trade impacts in a trade war.

The @Telegraph, @thetimes, @MailOnline & @TheSun publish corrections to their scaremongering on undocumented migrants in London. Imagine between them the reach & power of these papers. The fact is they are using that power to instil Trumpist hate & we are ill-equipped to resist.

A lot has been written about the outperformance of Europe's periphery, but the reduction of imbalances in the past decade has been nothing short of extraordinary. Portugal has gone from having one of the largest deficits in the world to being second best in the EZ, with Spain close behind.

If you ever needed more incentives to leave X permanently, try posting anything about Musk's "unusual" salute over there.

Flash January PMIs are out on Friday. Markets and many others treat them almost as monthly GDP. Eurozone composite PMI is expected to stay below 50, i.e. contraction. But I'm going to let you in on a little secret - the neutral threshold is not 50. It's closer to 48. 50 actually means decent growth!

Here's a cool chart of the impact of climate change on tourism in Spain. Tourism is well above where it was before the pandemic, but it's growing three times faster during the winter and autumn months than during peak summer.

The latest Economic Sentiment Indicator survey for the EU is out, and I can only describe it as crap. Employment expectations down, unemployment up and prices expectations higher as well. I don't like using the word stagflation lightly but this sure looks like a pretty bad mix.

Headlines that only a lunatic would have written a few years ago but that are perfectly normal in 2025: "EU will defend borders, says French minister in response to Trump’s Greenland threats"

You may, or may not, be surprised to know that a lot of people in other countries - usually a certain type of self proclaimed liberal - are starting to cheer quite loudly on Musk campaign to topple the UK government.

Eurozone December CPI looks like it's going to come a bit hot (2.5%?) just in time for those in the council arguing that we´re not that far from neutral to make their case.

La disonancia cognitiva de medio país en un gráfico. Como ya hemos visto en EEUU las encuestas económicas se han convertido básicamente en encuestas políticas y un cambio de gobierno hace que, de un día para otro, la situación del país pase de mala a buena.

Reposting this because, really, it's as good an explanation as any you'll see.

EU Natural Gas: 2024 vs. 2023 @bruegel.bsky.social -increased imports from Russia (pipelines and LNG) and Norway -less LNG imports -EU ended 2024 with 13 bcm less storage (72% capacity full), UA with 3 bcm less storage (17%) -EU's implied gas demand did not change www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...

December PMIs are out and nothing new, Spain continues to power ahead a cut above the rest.

Bring back this guy

Spain's economic performance has got a lot of attention lately, and for good reason. Almost half of the eurozone's growth this year has been driven by Spain, a country that represents 10% of the euro area economy.

My -unpopular?- opinion is that we don't need another programme of famous people travelling and eating, and marvelling at how quaint the world is and oh what great life these people in a small village in Sardinia have. Please please stop.

You may not like it but this is what pre-Christmas peak performance looks like. A drink at the market's cafe/bar before raiding the butchers and the fishmongers for tonight's dinner.

Under this incredibly boring name, this report from Draghi is a phenomenal document, not a single word is wasted. A lot of the same themes from his famous report on competiviness, but condensed into a triple shot of espresso of policy diagnoses and recommendations. cepr.org/system/files...

From Draghi's report, it's hard to overestimate what a big deal this is: "The IMF estimates that internal barriers within the single market are equivalent to an ad valorem tariff of around 45% for the EU manufacturing sector and a tariff on 110% for the services sector."

As with all these things, best taken with a pinch of salt, but ECB wage tracker suggests a strong moderation in wages in 2025 (our view as well, incidentally). With wages down to a 2-3% range, no reason why services and core inflation should not go down to levels compatible with the 2% target.