New article by my brilliant colleague Anna Kyriazi, on the EU’s membership crises

Really interesting read on how forecasting errors have all been in the same direction lately (data revisions routinely have output as better than expected, esp after crises) 1/3

Discussing @neilshearing.bsky.social's "fracturing" thesis with my political economy students this week - if we're at an inflection point for globalisation, where next?

This is exactly what the recent Trump-BBC 'scandal' was designed to achieve. The BBC is now self-censoring criticisms of Trump in the name of "impartiality"

Just... utterly grim.

The catastrophic illegal waste dumping in Oxfordshire (see next post) is a direct result of the deregulation-by-stealth I wrote about in 2021, when my dead goldfish became a registered waste disposer. I warned it would let the mafia in. And here we are.🧵 www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Astonishing piece by the brilliant @alisonkilling.bsky.social

I REALLY need to finish my paper on how we can understand "fiscal headroom" as a politically constructed space bounded by an invisible electric fence

Exciting to see this in print - the first article of our special issue on EU crisis politics and polity formation, by Hanspeter Kriesi in @jeppjournal.bsky.social. Lots more to follow...

If you care about geopolitics, decarbonization, and why Europe seems lost, you can do a lot worse than subscribing to this blog. It's brilliant: substack.com/inbox/post/1...

New tariffs for Venezuela in 3...2...1...

I just have no idea who the Tories think the audience is for full bore authoritarianism plus austerity. Very few who want the former want the latter.

As the new academic year begins, here's an important and bracing read on the crisis in UK universities, by Glen O'Hara for @politicalquarterly.bsky.social onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

A must-read this morning - JRF's @alfie-stirling.bsky.social on the crisis in UK living standards, and how politicians can (and must) respond

Excellent from @dandrezner.bsky.social on Wall Street's under-reaction to Trump's erratic economic policies: "in this scenario, markets are not leading indicators but lagging indicators of how government policy affects the real economy"

I’m reminded of Andrew Marr’s observation that when a headline contains a question, the answer is nearly always ‘no’

The political economy of the 2020s can all be traced back to the 2008 financial crisis - discuss

New post just out: "The Great VAT Panic" The claims made by the right-wing press about VAT on private school fees were wildly wrong. Why? What are the lessons about about (how not to) run a lobbying campaign? And what can government learn? (£/free) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

Me: let’s take the kids travelling, I want them to be citizens of the world Also me: pack the good teabags, while there is breath in my body I will not entertain Lipton Yellow Label

Brand new research findings from my clever colleagues - and the best “Check out my paper it is V Good” thread you will read all year

Essential reading for Whitehall nerds. I worked on SR2004 and it was exactly this bonkers, and that's when there was lots of money in the system

📢 Coming this Wednesday - the next in this online series, with Quinn Slobodian. Really looking forward to this one - do sign up if you haven't already

Starmer doesn't seem to realise that, if you consistently accept the way your opponents frame a question, you'll find it hard to reject the answers that they give. If you keep telling voters that Farage is right in his analysis, it will be hard to persuade them that he's wrong in his prescriptions.

🎯 www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

If the renewable fuel of your politics is keeping people angry, your main goal is not to make things better; it's to win the blame game over why they are bad

"The electorate needs to believe that Labour is governing in pursuit of a shared purpose, not simply governing because it won." Good stuff from @craigpberry.bsky.social

The Constitution is clear that Donald Trump cannot run for a third term as president, Jonathan Chait writes. "But as Trump has repeatedly demonstrated, questions of the law and the Constitution ultimately reduce to power struggles."

Really thought-provoking, especially on whether Trump’s kick-over-the-sandcastles economic strategy is a paradigm shift or just a mess

Really excellent seminar series coming up - first session tomorrow!

Drezner's World has never published anything not written by the hard-working staff. Until now. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/guest-post...

The US is giving us an incredible natural experiment in economic performance vs public sentiment. Biden got no credit for a ‘good’ economy - remains to be seen if Trump can deflect blame for a downturn

Enjoyed this @mileendinstitute.bsky.social webinar on the Starmer govt's economic policies with @samfr.bsky.social, @katealexandershaw.bsky.social, @theobertram.bsky.social and @morganj0nes.bsky.social. I was lucky to join such an expert panel. Great turnout online too! youtu.be/cTC6td1Ge9w?...

Our project SOLID has made the leap to Bluesky - do follow along, lots of great stuff coming up

📢 Next week is our first seminar of the @psabcpe.bsky.social online series with fantastic @ankehassel.bsky.social talking about Growth Strategies And Welfare Reforms: How Nations Cope With Economic Transitions💡Please sign up 💻 & share widely ‼️

What is the political economy of Starmer's Labour? Join a stellar panel for this @mileendinstitute.bsky.social webinar on 13 March, featuring @samfr.bsky.social @colmpm.bsky.social @katealexandershaw.bsky.social @theobertram.bsky.social & @morganj0nes.bsky.social. us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Fascinating long read. Impossible to know how much of James Murdoch's account is true and how much self-serving. But that's rather fitting for the family that institutionalised post-truth journalism. To be believed nowadays, first you must be liked...

Late-adopter incoming... hello Bluesky