Ireland, having other peoples cake and eating other peoples cake

EM bonds got more robust in global risk off episodes nowadays. Partly because creditor composition of EM debt got safer relative to advanced economies (AEs). In last 5 years (i) EM domestic funding markets got bigger (ii) foreign non-banks hold more AE debt and (ii) QT reduced holdings of loyal cbs

Looking for a "10% off Stablecoin" Black Friday deal. Surely somebody knows about one

Not often I disagree with my colleague Sergi Lanau but I think his wild claim that Senegal's bonds could be 25% overvalued may be a bit..... well.... optimistic for bondholders Unmissable note should you be one of our clients my.oxfordeconomics.com/reportaction...

Uzbekistan to invest on average more than 10% of GDP in US every year over next decade (wink emoji, wink emoji, wink emoji) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

IMF Disgrace: Senegal My assessment and recommendations. www.financialafrik.com/en/2025/10/2...

more than a whiff of self-censorship in markets at the moment. No-one wants to call BS on, ya know, everything, for fear of angering the president on.ft.com/4pRyTHp

Trump's Argentine bail out could set up biggest sovereign story of the decade. If Argentina defaults despite the bail out, Trump will want seniority, but IMF cant give it. You can imagine how this descends into a colossal row between IMF and its biggest shareholder www.ft.com/content/4127...

EM Asia now clearly the most vulnerable in my latest global tariff rankings.

A silver cigarette box, with Eddie George's hand offering them to Bank of England youngsters (those selected for one of his "tea with the Deputy Governor" office hours) www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Such a dis

Im outing myself as a "Which?" lover www.which.co.uk/news/article...

OK I admit it, nobody is perfect, I cant write research as quickly as Trump can write letters

Losing a 287 day Duolingo streak turned out to be surprisingly liberating. The tinge of sadness far outweighed by the satisfaction of sticking 2 fingers up at a nauseatingly nagging algorithm

Trump caves in to pressure to make chart scales more suitable for non-Chinese economies

My own bit of paradise after London Marathon. Blew up in last 5k but still got PB of 3.03. Amazing support so much appreciated. Love the way Brits become the most friendly folk in world to those with marathon medal

A 19pt swing in net approval since inauguration... even before Main St endures tariff impact. When are the mid-terms? When will he start to lose his grip on US inc. and Republican politicians? www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...

Good news for Japan, Korea, Germany. Its not just about how much the US is tariffing you, but also how much the US is tariffing your competitors... For now thats mainly an issue of how much you compete with China in US markets, but that could change faster than you can say the word "liberation"

Trump and Lula, brothers in self-defeating credibility destruction. "BCB will be forced to address market backlash following perception that appointments and decisions represent dovish turn from central bank, causing the BCB to convince public otherwise." @fcamargo.bsky.social (2024)

Interesting IMF GFSR piece on financial spillovers from EMs having increased since GFC, though I wonder how much of that is down to a China story that is based on what happened a few years ago www.imf.org/~/media/Webs...

Political attacks like this typically mean policy needs to tighten to offset credibility loss… Lula’s foolish interventions in Brazil the most glaring example www.ft.com/content/1cd3...

Non-China Asia is a big relative* winner at this stage of the tariff war season, having had a terrible start on liberation day. Their own-tariff rates have fallen dramatically relative to their competitors in US import markets (China's pain, others gain) *Pretty much everyone is an absolute loser

You couldn't make it up. You just couldn't. Trump's rant against US sending condoms to Hamas was based on the fact that US was sending condoms to Gaza... ... that's Gaza Mozambique, which suffers from the highest AIDs in Mozambique www.wsj.com/world/africa...?

I needed this. Quality #content.

Makes Liz Truss look like a winner

Do you remember the days when you used to go to New York to buy consumer electronics?

Supply chain disrupters www.forexlive.com/news/propose...

Trump net popularity has moved down 12 ppts since late Jan... big move in last few days. I wonder at what point Congressional support starts to ebb www.natesilver.net/p/trump-appr...

Boston announces it’s to become the first all barefoot marathon as a Americans can no longer afford running shoes on.ft.com/3R3WoNq

Never mind fentanyl. Trump is going to have to build a wall between Canada and US to stop the smuggling of sports on.ft.com/3R3WoNq

Apologies to colleagues and clients, I find it impossible not to be hopelessly distracted by this exemptions list. On a serious note, why not exempt (for example) cocoa? US doesnt produce any. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

No way! (from exemptions list)

Drug users rejoice: cocaine is exempt

Great news for vampires: human blood is exempt

Anyone know the exchange rate of semi-digested fish to the dollar?

The most humiliating thing to happen to the Washington Post yet. Not being on this list.

What a piece of work! Passion, humour and strong arguments from @alanbeattie.bsky.social on.ft.com/3QHhFfT Trump’s risible ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

Real headline is obviously “Rachel Reeves so talented she exaggerated time spent at Bank of England to make CV look worse”” (Speaking as someone who spent too long at BoE) www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Imagine that there were people who genuinely believed Musk’s “free speech” schtick.

Note to EM pessimists.... 24 out of top 25 growth recoveries since Covid are EMs/developing economies... and the exception is a tax dodger

A Frexit scenario tree (from 2017). Still about right?

Bit stuck on my asset of 2025 pick. Work competition but dont tell anyone here that I asked you. Risky suggestions only please. Winner takes all..... 2nd place and last place are a tie.

Markets at the start of 2024: Brazil has crazy high real rates! We get carry with that! Buy! Markets at the end of 2024: Brazil has crazy high real rates! They borrow with that! Sell! www.ft.com/content/1c67...

F*** me, the Yanks are in trouble

If we end up in a full blown trade war with blanket tariffs, there's no reward for guessing who's going to be the worst hit out of the EU (if you've read to here!) But even if tariffs remain "just" a threat, the CEE is in for a tumultuous period. 7/7

To quote Harry Enfield: "FT! I admire your prompt analysis of labour markets even though its probably an adjustment after years of real wage erosion… But if you come round here slipping your derivatives, mis-using accelerate 3 times in as many paras, I’d say Oi! FT! NO!" www.ft.com/content/80a4...

An economist's most difficult intellectual challenge is to let go of emotional attachment to a view and assess the facts coldly. Chris Giles fails big time here on judging euro bail outs a success. Question... what would I expect to in the charts if bailouts had failed? www.ft.com/content/9ae3...

Why France 2024 isn’t Greece 2009 Despite the media headlines, the differences between the two crises outweigh the similarities with P. Petrakis and crisis veterans @gabrielsterne.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social www.ekathimerini.com/in-depth/ana...

Also our view… Hard bit still to come